Was when the ceiling went. It is interesting to see reporter what is happening in the bond market. To see what is happening in the bond market. We have seen curve flattening throughout most of this week. We see a little bit of steepening today on the back of the payroll number. We see that ripple around the world, and that is reflected in the german 30 year. Twostens in the state basically back to where they were almost a month ago. Alix thanks very much. The s p now dropping like a stone. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi speaking right now. She is saying to everyone, be calm, be confident, be patient, but she did call biden president elect biden, having a strong mandate to lead. She says she is hoping republicans can come back to the table on stimulus. Moments ago, we also heard from larry kudlow as well that they also wanted to try to move forward on stimulus and come to some kind of agreement. Will they or wont they is really the big question, what the s p taking a nosedive as we are still trying to determine the race from the white house. The latest from arizona should be coming from Maricopa County that encompasses phoenix. Joining us for the latest, kevin cirilli, bloomberg chief washington correspondent. Where are we . What are we going to know today . Kevin first and foremost, joe biden has a 5500 vote lead against President Trump in pennsylvania, and theres about 30,000 votes left to be counted in the city of philadelphia, predominantly a historically democratic part of the state. Plus, additional mailin ballots to become did over the next couple of days not just in pennsylvania. Likely a recount in georgia, in nevada. Election officials saying those tallies will come in over the weekend. And in arizona, you mentioned Maricopa County. Bloomberg news has not called this race, but without question, if you look at the data, if you look at the Historical Information that we have before us, this is a Major Development as it relates to joe biden taking the lead from President Trump in pennsylvania. Secondly, the Trump Campaign has put out a statement. They said this election is not over. They went on to say they will continue to fight. The third and final point, into ours the House Republican caucus is scheduled to have a have a Conference Call in congress, where likely this will be the first time that the House Republicans have been able to gather to talk about the developments in recent days. It comes as publicly, senator pat toomey, a republican from pennsylvania, said earlier this morning that the president s comments at the white house yesterday were hard to watch. Privately, after conversations with multiple members of congress throughout the morning, i can tell you that the frustration is palpable amongst republicans that there does not seem to be a viable legal argument that has been presented this time. Guy on that note, Mitch Mcconnell over the last couple of minutes saying that there will be Court Decisions that will affect the election. , thaty that legal route legal challenge that some in the Republican Party are still focusing on, Mitch Mcconnell believes that is still a live debate. Thank, indeed. Lets carry on thank, indeed. Lets carry on the thank you very much, indeed. Lets carry on the conversation. Towas interesting listening the various comments that have been flying around over the last few minutes, rick. I focusing on what we got from larry kudlow, talking about a peaceful transfer of power. I have to ask you, do you think there is an exit plan for the republicans that thats point at this point . Do you think there is an exit plan for President Trump that is being actively talked about . If not, how big a problem could this be . Rick i do think President Trumps comments yesterday were putting a lot of republicans in disarray. I think they would have thought that president would have kept his options open, and to have that more of a transitional approach rather than a confrontational approach. Being said, theres a lot of questions being asked within the Republican Party. What do we do if the president isnt prepared to concede, assuming that the current status of these states that kevin bidenned stay, and joe has over 270 electoral votes that he needs to be president . The other questions being asked quietly this morning is if the president is reticent to look at a transition of power. Who goes and talks to him about it . This is not a president who has close personal advisors other than family members. So that will become an even bigger issue once this election is called, if it is called for joe biden. Apx i do want to say that right now has called the race for biden, saying that joe biden is elected president of the United States. Bloomberg is not calling that. We are falling ap that we are following aps we are following aps lead on certain states. Ap has called the race for joe biden. Legally, can the Republican Party concede for trump . Is that a thing . Rick donald trump is the only one who can concede, but a concession is almost irrelevant. There have been many elections, some of which i have been involved in, where the opponent never conceded. It didnt matter whether they conceded or not. If they lost, they lost. I am not sure what situation the president is going to find himself in. I do think the comments mentioned earlier on this broadcast, that senator Mitch Mcconnell is looking at legal remedies that have been requested, and that that may change some of this outcome, i doubt it. If this is the approach the republicans are going to take, it is just a matter of time. The clock is going to run out. Ap it sounds like has made its announcement. They are the Gold Standard in election forecasting, and i think alix actually, let me interrupt you one second. We are confirming now that the tweet has now been deleted. It came from a fake account. So fair enough. However, you can see where the conversation is going. Rick the real ap is the Gold Standard. [laughter] alix the fake account is not. To your point, if we are headed there anyway, that is part of the conversation. Rick pennsylvania is the only state that biden needs to win to lock it up. Ts 20 electoral votes put him over 270, and it means the president has no longer any electoral options to try to win this election. Therefore, he would look at his legal options. We know what the various options are, and they seem incredibly limited. One of the big issues the president talked about even a week ago before the election were ballots coming in after election day that would be counted in places like pennsylvania. These are ballots that may be got mailed the day before the election, didnt arrive on time. According to pennsylvania election law, those ballots would normally be counted. That was the issue he took to the Supreme Court. The Supreme Court chose not to enter into it until after the election, if it got brought back to them. The reality is where the current election stands in pennsylvania, you dont need those ballots to change the outcome. Joe biden has now run ahead of donald trump in pennsylvania, and the likely votes coming from big urban areas like pittsburgh and philadelphia, counties like aregh and allegheny, decidedly heavily weighted towards joe biden. Once they call pennsylvania, they have called the election. That limits Donald Trumps options significantly. Alix fair point. Thanks very much, Bloomberg Contributor rick davis of stonecourt capital. Nelson, ubs is nick head of global and European Equity strategy. White a week if you were a tech investor, a European Equity investor. How did you interpret the equity action over the last few days . Nick i think we had written the report previous to the election, and we are all discussing that we have certainly noticed that european equities within a Global Portfolio have performed pretty well whenever you saw bidens odds improving. It seems to us that europe as a region was likely to be a beneficiary of a biden presidency, relative to the status quo. I think we were referring earlier to european equities perform well. To be fair, lets put it in context, they have massively lagged behind the u. S. All year, undery have been really relative performance, but given what it looks like the election might turn out to be, per our view, that looks to support european equities, a slightly better cyclical backdrop, maybe slightly better news on trade. That is what is driving us right now. Guy just taking a step back, i am trying to understand the narrative this week. I am trying to understand how we flip from focusing on the blue wave to focusing on divided government, and then the rewriting of the narrative on that. The only logical answer i have heard anybody come up with his stocks want to go higher. That is the narrative. How solid is that . People just want to buy stocks, and they can rewrite the narrative retrospectively to justify it. Nick i think the context i would say is up until monday, we had a pretty solid collection. Remember the peak in europe was october 12. Then the back half of october, 8 , 9 correction in the European Equity market commode is pretty much in line with what we would expect equity market, which is pretty much what we would expect. We are coming from an area where if the price action is where it was in the middle of october, i think things would be very different. Pause, and that allowed equities to do well. To your point about people having to buy equities, this is whether you want to call it financial repression or there is no alternative. Those arguments are still in place. When you look in particular at europe, european equities are pretty much the only major global asset class that give you a yield in line with the 30 year average. The dividend yields on european equities is just over 3 . That is pretty much bang in line with european averages. I dont see that for treasuries, for corporate credit. Bunds buns 10 year are negative. That does force people back into equities, so whenever we get these pullbacks, i think we will see people buying on those dips, and maybe that is partly what we saw this week. Alix but youve got the virus, meaning we are seeing more lockdowns. What do you do with that . Can september, i we were highlighting the fact that the market in europe was ignoring the daily new cases in terms of covid19 cases. We saw that reconnect quite aggressively in the middle of october. We saw that it percent, 9 pullback. That was exactly to your point. It was the virus we were seeing, in cases, and more important for equity markets, we were seeing government responses to that. We do have renewed mobility restrictions here in the u. K. , but also in france and spain and germany. Of course, and europe in the last couple of weeks, we have seen that reflected in the macro data. We have seen weaker pmis in europe, and compared to the u. S. And china, europe is definitely lagging behind in terms of that macro recovery. We dont dispute that, and we do see some Downside Risks certainly to numbers across europe as we exit this year because i think those mobility restrictions in q4 will hit. I guess the point i am making is if we see some certainty out of the u. S. Around elections, we can then revert back to the evaluations we are looking at in terms of the relative call between fixed income and equities. I think that is what gives us the support which we had last friday. That was a level which i thought was quite a good support for european equities. Care haveand health been the big outperformers. Is that something you are comfortable sticking with . Do you think people should be rotating out of the weekly rally we have seen in those spaces . Do you think they should be rotating towards other areas . Is this something you would havent dissipated . That she would have anticipated you would have anticipated . Ask i think it doesnt look though there is a blue wave, and the senate is still obviously uncertain, but it doesnt look like you will necessarily get a democrat senate, so the blue wave that people were looking for is maybe not coming through. I think health care, depending on what a potential Biden Administration would do in terms of rules and regulations about that, was obviously a sector that was underperforming. Theur view, is it is one of most attractive sectors, so we would certainly be overweight health care relative to the consumer staples, the beverages. It does look cheap for the most part in the market. It does have relatively high dividend yields, so that is something we would certainly keep with overtime. In europe, it is not such a big sector, with software, semis to a degree. We just dont have the exposure we have in the u. S. We are neutral on that particular part of the market. Other areas we quite like. Autos, for example. I thing that is an area doing well, mainly because of corporate profits in the qc results that were very strong for that sector. A more maybe for. Rocyclical look. Guy it now appears as this we as if we will have a call between Boris Johnson and ursula von der leyen on saturday. We dont know if it is a makeup call or a breakup call. Nevertheless, if it is a deal call, short term, do you buy u. K. Assets . Nick i think we have highlighted the u. K. Equity market relative to europe as trading pretty much at 20 year lows in terms evaluations. It is incredibly extreme, and it is wrong to think that the u. K. Is full of cheap banks and energy stocks. It is about 2 3 of the sectors trading at larger discounts than they normally do to their european peers. I think there is a high degree of brexit uncertainty or discount priced into u. K. Equities. I would argue if you get a breakthrough in any form of trade deal, even a relatively revolves around goods, when services are a much bigger part of the u. K. Economy, any form of deal would be good news for u. K. Assets. If you get a strong rally in ofrling, member about 3 4 the profits from u. K. Companies come from overseas. Beasley a big move for sterling. Hat cap the ftse 100 move you, nick. O see thanks for joining us. Coming up, we are going to look at the strength of the u. S. Labor market. Constance hunter of kpmg is going to be joining us shortly. We continue to watch the count. Alix the latest numbers out of Maricopa County in arizona, where phoenix is, biden now leads trump by over 60,000 votes. You are looking at 50. 9 to 47. 7 . Votes. Has 11 electoral we will keep you updated on all of those scores. This is bloomberg. Alix the u. S. Labor market defying expectations for more subdued gains. Joining us now for more is constance hunter, kpmg chief economist. I have never been part of a jobs friday the felt more like an afterthought. What was your biggest take away from today . Remove thatets during the reference week, we were running at about 60,000 cases per day, and now we have an elevated case count close to 120,000 a day, so that is double. When i look at this jobs report, my first thought is this is some generally pretty good news in the private sector, not good news in the government sector. When i juxtapose it against what is happening with the virus, it gives me a lot of pause that these are trends we can trust Going Forward because the virus is really driving the bus on the economy. Guy in terms of the breakdown of the numbers, permanent job layoffs look like they are fairly steady at the moment. We have certainly seen some evidence within the data that the economic trajectory is leveling off. Is that another take away from this set of figures. Thetance sure, but again, increase in virus cases really has me somewhat concerned about the future outlook. One area where we have seen a good amount of rebound is in leisure and hospitality. I concern is does that get to continue if we have cases doubling from the time that the survey was taken. I would say that there is a lot in the survey to suggest we have some fissures in the system. The other is what is happening with state and local government jobs. The concern was always that if we didnt get a fiscal package, we would start to see massive layoffs at the state and local level. That accelerated in october. I see no reason that wouldnt continue to accelerate in november and december without some kind of fiscal assistance. That there is a narrative on the headline, it is still pretty good. Constance thats true. Alix does that remove the doneus to get a stimulus conversation . Constance obviously this ties into the election outcome and the makeup of the senate, which we are not even going to know in december because we need to have those georgia runoffs. The odds of a skinny bill need to be fading. I would say that i joe biden a joe biden that presidency could mean Something Different than if it was another democratic when simply because he spent so long in the senate. He has a relationship with Mitch Mcconnell. It is possible that if there were a combination of divided senate versus white house makeup, that this is one that could lend itself to some sort of possible conversations about a skinny bill, but i think without a skinny bill, you are going to continue to see layoffs at the state and local level. The quantum difference here, in terms of the Economic Impact . Say say 500 billion or 1. 5 trillion, what is the multiplier between those two numbers . Trillion a significantly 500 billion . Than i am wondering how that works in terms of the magnitude of stimulus we will get. Constance i would say theres a couple areas where stimulus is needed. The first would be continuing unemployment step up and continued assistance for a pandemic, and then an extension of the length of time people are receiving benefits because that