Look at the really disinflationary dampening you are seeing in the bond market. I dont want to make a big deal about it, but yield gives way to lower yield. Im looking at fiveyear, fiveyear breakevens, and there is a little bit of an ebb, an increase in the disinflationary tendency. That claimsort number at 8 30. Francine a really important one, and we have some great interviews coming up from the Bloomberg NewEconomy Forum focusing on health today. A conversation also with bill gates. Lets get to first word news in new york city with ritika gupta. Ritika joe biden warns that the delay in starting the president ial transition could set bet the effort to distribute the coronavirus vaccine. Could setback the effort to disturb the coronavirus fencing. Trump thent Trump Administration is being urged to begin working with biden. Wisconsin Election Officials have ordered a partial vote recount that was requested by the top by the trump campaign. There will be recount in two heavily democratic counties. Joe biden won by more than 20,000 votes. Recounts have shifted only hundreds of votes historically. A controversial nomination of judy shelton to the fed board is hanging by a thread and there is little chance it will be revived. The senate is preparing for thanksgiving recess. Ons lawmakers return, democrats will pick up another seat. That makes confirming shelton a tougher battle. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more im ritikauntries, gupta. This is bloomberg. Tom thanks so much. Equities, bonds, currencies, commodities. Futuresatives 16. The vix at 20 to come out to 23, k up to when he 4. 31 224. 31. A 10year yield, 8. 5 . We are going to get an 8. 4 on that in a moment with the curve flattening. Oil pulls back after two interesting days, and dollar, a little bit of Dollar Strength right now. Francine, what do you have . Francine i have a similar data check to yours. Stocks are falling, and again it is because of the pandemic resurgence, and that today seems to overshadow progress toward the vaccine. But it just flips day in and day out, so going too much into that with the bright spots, astrazeneca rising after positive results, and im also looking at pound because there is another deadline that we have to talk about, and there is brexit. Renminbi i dont think i have it in my data check, but i was looking at some of the new calls from the new research chief of hsbc, and they say the yuan is now a g10 currency. Ae European Union also faces grueling battle to save billions in relief funds. Leaders will try to persuade hungary and poland not to be till recovery plan. European Commission President ursula von der leyen spoke about the effort at the Bloomberg NewEconomy Forum. Has shown us that Global Public health is the foundation of the worlds prosperity and security. Forines must be available all, whoever they are, wherever they are, whatever they can afford. Or low Income Countries should be left behind. A Global Recovery is the only way to reopen our economies, to restart the labor market, to repair supply chains, and start rebuilding. This is about capitalizing on existing market forces, not fighting them. We need to use our recovery stimulus to invest in the clean and Digital Technologies of the future. This is the thinking five europes 1. 8 trillion euro recovery package. You can count on europe to lead the way. Francine as we are speaking, there is also Christine Lagarde speaking at the european parliament, promising a forceful monetary stimulus package in december. Shes also urging governments to make the pandemic relief available without delay. Madame lagarde is speaking live. We will monitor headlines from that. Lignos. Us now is elsa great to speak with you. Is it forf a concern euro if these pandemic relief efforts are delayed and delayed significantly because of vetoes . Elsa i think it would be a concern if they were to be delayed indefinitely, but our experience with european leaders is that they always find some way to either bend the rules or find a workaround and get done what they want to get done, in this case getting the e. U. Recovery fund off the ground. I can see that there will be a battle today. I doubt they will find a compromise on todays conference call, but i think Market Participants rightly expect that one way or another it will get done and the funds will be dispersed. Francine what does it mean for euro, elsa . Euro, so far it is not traded on the back of this and that is probably the right approach. Year. W a big rally this i dont think it was just it was a combination of factors. The last time we spoke, which was probably a while ago, we were looking for eurodollar to hit the 1. 20 level. I think the rationale behind it was really the collapse of u. S. Rates at european levels. That has run its course. The e. U. Recovery fund mostly baked in, so i dont think you are going to be seeing euro trade on the back of this. The exception would be if the whole thing is called into question, but that is not anybodys base case at the moment. Elsa, wonderful to have you back on the show. I want to ask you the more philosophical question of given weak dollar. At what point will nations start screaming . You look at the early 1990s, and the distinctive issue is, is now like then where they take a while to screen, or do they scream do they screen much sooner than we expect . Elsa i think some people are screaming already. It is a great question becomes because it comes to the heart of what can countries do to prevent their currencies from appreciating . The s p is a notable example. The answer is active intervention, reserve accumulation. In other countries, and the region ins one particular, you have this approach in terms of the Market Exchange rates. I have heard a number of people say the ecb will not be happy if that happens in 2020. What will they do about it . It is not like they can cut rates further, it is not like they have a lot left to do in terms of conventional Monetary Policy. Francine what they tom what they have done historically, they have asked the United States to cut the weak dollar policy. Most of the interviews we do 1. 40st euro 1. 30 or even would provide that tension. I am hearing too many adults like you saying that is wrong, we could see the screaming at 1. 22 or 1. 23. Why is that . Is it just that at negative Interest Rates so much is more sensitive now . Elsa that may be a part of it, but i think it is recognition that there are limited talks. I dont think anybody would expect a plaza court or live record at pete repeat. Away from that policy of coordination intervention. The last time we saw something veryar was very sick specific circumstances. Currencies are going to adjust appropriately. I am usually not in the bearish account, and a lot of people we speak to are at the moment. The market will do the work for the ecb. With a better economic recovery next year or the year after, then you will find eurodollar drifting back down through no intervention from the ecb at all. Francine thank you so much, elsa lignos of Rbc Capital Markets stays with us. We will talk about the currency ies out there. About jobs and inflation, at 9 30 am in new york and 2 30 p. M. In london. And this is bloomberg. Bloomberg surveillance. Jobless claims a big deal, it 30 new york time, washington time. A spirited discussion on euro, dollar weakness. Elsa,e are convinced on, is renminbi is on a tear. Lets start with the wife. Why have we seen you want appreciation lets start with the why. Uan have we seen yo appreciation . Elsa Market Participants are rightly looking at chinas response to the virus and the economic recovery that has taken place there. They have handled it better than a lot of places. Strategists and traders as well have had a good call earlier this year looking for renminbi strength, but we are getting to the point where that is running to an end. Tom we have a new stasis there. Is that strong yuan were an . Rly priced yu elsa it depends on the approach or take. People would argue it is too cheap, and there are longerterm trends around debt sustainability for china, which point to the one being too being to the you want too strong. It is interesting for me to see, for example, dollarrenminbi trading above eurodollar on the oneyour horizon. That doesnt make a lot of sense to me because i do think that we are moving into an environment where you may see a more normalized u. S. China relationship going forward. Francine what do you make of the end . It seems range bound. I dont know what you do with the havens. Elsa we have actually been tactically short on the yen, and not because we are bearish on risk. The relationship between dollaryen and equities has weakened, and not because we are hugely bearish on the dollar either, the because i think youre seeing a very interesting capital flow story with the repatriation of money by japanese investors into domestic assets. They have become natural sellers of dollaryen on any rally. We have had that a few times, we have it again at the moment. Not a huge move, but it is making a bit of money for us at the moment. Francine there is a lot of talk about the e. U. And the u. K. Coming closer to an agreement. We also have reports from the u. K. Press, saying e. U. Leaders worry that business is just not ready for a no deal brexit. We are still talking about it, and we are three or four years on. What happens to how much higher can pound go from here if we have a deal . Elsa like you say, we are still talking about it for. 5 years on. It seems amazing now for it was may 2016 and we are still talking about how we are going to properly exit. The important thing to bear in mind is no matter what happens, whether we get a deal or not, u. K. Is leading a Single Market by the end of the year, and that means economic disruption in any case. When you are looking at sterling, it is important to bear in mind that you may get a kneejerk rally on an announcement of a deal, but that may well be a Good Opportunity to i am looking at it the way we did the u. K. Election last year, where there was the expectation that a tory victory was very positive for sterling, and you got a rally the night of the election results, and then you never saw those rates again. I would not be surprised if something similar happens in this situation. Whether we get a deal or not, trade is going to be less free at the end of this year than it was up until this point. Tom elsa lignos, thank you so much for joining us. Elsa lignos with Rbc Capital Markets, global head of fx strategy. It is a nuanced story at the border. The dallas fed president , robert kaplan, with david westin, balance. Look for that at 12 30. Futures deteriorate, 20. Stay with us. This is bloomberg. The antivaccination movement has mobilized. It is growing, and it is dangerous, and we need to see governments and public figures working hard to defeat this movement. The vaccine science is good. It is safe. We need to take it one step at a time. If i think about president elect eitan coming in, his number one objective for him president elect biden coming income his number one objective is to the public trust. That was Richard Horton speaking to me earlier, speaking about the antivaccine movement. Vaccineazenecaoxford provokes an immune response in the elderly. In the United States have topped 150,000. Sam fazeli joins us, director of young a research. When you look at this vaccine, it is a different vaccine from pfizer and moderna. Is it easier to distribute, or is it just not as effective as the other ones . Effectiveness, and good morning we have to wait and see how it works in phase 3. All these studies they are doing in early trials look at the activity as opposed to efficacy. Proves asif this effective as the other vaccines we have seen so far, it is much easier to handle. It only needs refrigeration when you are transporting it, and it can remain in the fringe in the fridge for a decent length of time. Francine which one will get approved first . The other two, pfizer and modernity, are new. That youe of vaccine are extending to us about yesterday, does later approval come for those . I think they are way ahead of astrazeneca. Review the fda has a between december 8 and december 10 for the vaccines. Unless there is something in manufacturing or whatever, seeing an emergency use approval sometime astrazeneca will be behind in the u. S. Possibly in the u. K. They might get approval before the end of the year, but more likely into q1. Tom i want to talk about when we get the vaccines. I get the idea and it is all over the media about how it is going to be essential workers in the very old and sick, etc. When does the nineyearold kid in des moines, iowa, get a vaccine for covid . Suspect that sort of age group will have to wait for if that is what the states do and the Health Authorities do, go by age group and susceptibility to the disease, they will have to wait probably back into next year. Tom so what does that mean for the social response of cities and towns . I get the drama of a school closing, and i guess that full didnt to that discussion, but it seems to me like the media, the vaccine is going to be here by march or the summer, or thanksgiving of next year do pros like you have a clue when we could actually say all clear . Sam there are two things to think about. First the vaccines have to prove that they have durability, that they last long enough. In terms of the protections they provide. I think there is reason to think that they would. Then of course it is not a blackandwhite situation that x number of people are vaccinated, lets go. You have to wait until you get a theingful 70 , 80 of population vaccinated before you can start thinking about the herd immunity. Until then, we will have to keep social distancing and wearing masks. Hopefully no lockdowns, though. Kids pass thisdo thing on . Do they have covid and do they pass it . Does it make sense closing schools, or because they are largely asymptomatic, the transition the transmission rate is much smaller in older kids . Sam i think you guys actually spoke about a study that was done recently, using big Data Analysis that looks at where the most transmissions occur, and they are hotels and restaurants and gyms. I dont think schools particularly where highlighted in that study. So it is of course kid to get it , so long as they have the disease, they can potentially pass it, but i dont think there has been any major link to an outbreak back to a school. But we have plenty of time to prove that again. But so far, our worry should be more gyms, hotels, and restaurants. Tom they are serious issues, certainly in new york in the last couple of days, discussion of a struggling Hotel Business is tangible. Sam fazeli, thank you for joining us. On this matter of a pandemic, the gentleman at the mta at 8 30. This is bloomberg. Francine this is bloomberg surveillance. Tom, we have plenty more on the emerging markets and really focus on south africa. The South African president has reiterated his commitment to reining in the country skyrocketing debt. Investment have been going gdp, andelation to our one of the reasons why write the beginning of my tenure as president focused on attracting investment was to try to correct this. And we are in the process of doing so. We set ourselves a goal of attracting 100 billion into our economy in five years. And we are already more than halfway there. Commitments are being made by companies and many of these commitments are being actualized. Attracting investment is in an effort to increase investments visavis our gdp and i think we can turn things around quite significantly. But it also means the public sector, which is government throughout various entities, also needs to demonstrate its own confidence in the economy of our country. So public sector, investment tapered down. We want to boost that. And through the infrastructure ony and through refocusing enterprises, were going to be able to do so. See the we will also private sector begin to invest more and more. Mr. President , how confident are you south africa cat of what a sovereign debt crisis . Can avoid a sovereign debt crisis . We have taken it upon ourselves to draw a line in the decided we are now going to arrest the debt level, bring them down quite significantly over the next four years we want to see our debt being brought down. We are spending far too much money on debt servicing costss, in some cases more than what we pay for education. And that cannot be. We have got to bring down our debt level and make the much more manageable. We are embarking on a variety of stopping wastage, and withruption all those measures were putting in place, i am certain we will be able to bring our debt levels down and avoid what you would call a debt crisis because we are focused. Were opening up by telling the. Ation we have too much debt a country that needs to grow needs to reduce its debt. And through that, we want to be able to generate more debt. In the end, it is through investment that you get growth. As you get growth, your that able to collect more revenue through taxes and we are able to reduce debt. Tom the president of south africa, important comments. With now we have tim ash Bluebay Asset Management. He has had a distinguished career thinking larger and broader about em and sovereign and the mix out there with his Public Service to the United Kingdom and his work at Bluebay Asset Management. Tim ash joins us now. We, i want to talk i know will get to turkey and the rest of it, but i want to talk about g20 and the absolute decline we have in multilateralism. How is that affecting emerging economies who right now seem to be doing better with currency appreciation . Do they need a g20 . Do they need a more multilateral post trump world .