Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg 20240703 : vimarsana.com

BLOOMBERG Bloomberg July 3, 2024

Start of new york tech week as titans gather in the big apple for panels, events, and more. Lets check in on the markets. There is a geopolitical element that plays in. The conflict in israelhamas might be contained. The moves being made across germany and the United States. We see a rally up almost one percentage point and a desire to get into equities across the benchmark. The 10 year yield dialed down. We are off almost 10 basis points. I am looking at your crude dialing down. New york crude dialing down. Gas really coming down from 40 moves weve seen in the previous week. Real volatility earlier today. At one point it was up more than 12 . We dial it back again. This is all around euphoria there could be an etf on blackrock being signed off in terms of bitcoin trading. We are currently up 3. 4 . What are you looking in the micro . Ed apple in the first instance is one of the big tech moving to the downside. We got data from Counterpoint Research showing in the first 17 days since release iphone 15 sales are down relative to the same sevenday period a year ago when iphone 14 went on sale in china. We will dig into that later in the show with Bloombergs Mark Gurman who has also been looking at the executive ranks of apple that is had a reshuffle of late. The top story is bloomberg reporting expanding Technology Export curves to china in the semiconductor space. It had a pronounced impact in markets in asia and europe overnight. A lot of those names but Pay Attention to the chip equipment makers. Lets get the specifics and bring in bloombergs Mackenzie Hawkins. When burke sources are telling us these chip curves will be expanded. In what ways . Mackenzie these chip curves are building on initial restrictions that the Biden Administration proposed in october of last year. There are couple of venues for the tightening. We will see restrictions on graphics chip shales and advanced manufacturing sales to Chinese Companies. We are also seeing tightening on potential attempts by Chinese Companies to avoid country specific restrictions by routing their shipments through other countries. The last thing to keep an ion is adding chinese chip design firms to u. S. Trade restriction list that requires overseas manufacturers to get a license from the u. S. Government before fulfilling orders. Caroline what prompted this tightening . Is it the republicans or is it huawei and more recent events that shows may be some of these cuts are not working . Mackenzie the u. S. Announced its initial role in october last year and took a couple of months to get key allies, particular the netherlands and japan on board, and they have been working on a final version of the rule for a while. This is not to be interpreted as a reaction to the huge Tech Breakthrough in china in august when huawei released a smartphone powered by an advanced chip. That has defined the conversation in the month and a half since and we will be looking to the administration to see what actions specifically they might take on huawei and its chipmaking partner. Caroline we will keep a close eye on the implications and so will the chinese who say they do not want this to be weaponized or politicized when it comes to technology and trade. Mackenzie hawkins, we thank you. Joanne feeney is with us with deep knowledge expertise when it comes to semiconductors. Ultimately is this ever an efficient way of trying to curtail what is ultimately an ability to make advanced chips in china . Joanne it is never going to be efficient. Lets not try to guess the ultimate goals of the u. S. Policy. One effect is it will slow down chinas ability to deploy advanced chips for use in ai oriented servers. We will slow china down. It is harmful to u. S. Companies that want to sell china those chips, like nvidia. We are in a period of time when there is such Strong Demand for ai capabilities that even if nvidia loses sales in china because of more restrictions it will likely be able to sell them in the United States or someplace else. It will slow china down. The horse has left the barn in terms of the ability of china to produce advanced chips. They cannot do it in a lotto volume. Ultimately they will be able to do this because Chip Technology has reached the limits and so it is hard for our customary our companies to stay ahead when all china has to do is copy what we have done so far. Ed we are showing the names moving to the upside, nvidia and amd on the graphic side and then the chip equipment makers also positive. You said this will not slow china down. There is a refocus on the chip equipment makers in particular. With those u. S. Based companies with exposure to china come is this more of a concern now than it was yesterday . Joanne we have been avoiding exposure to most of the equipment for a while because of these tensions with china. Our position has not changed. We have some exposure but not to the major players. I think what happened earlier when china saw this coming and saw the timing of these restrictions, they imported a boatload of equipment. They are pretty wellpositioned. It will slow them down in terms of deploying high end aibased surveys servers because they will not get all of those chips. They have a lot out of the netherlands to the deposition machines. They will do an awful lot with the equipment they have. There are always ways to get to smaller sizes to those more advanced chips using the older technology. It just takes many more steps to get there. It is much more expensive. Is it efficient . It will not be efficient for china make the advanced chips. They will be able to make almost everything with the equipment they have except for the most advanced chips and that is where u. S. Policy wants to be binding and it will be for a while until china can make further advances in their own deployment of equipment or refinement of the equipment they have in place. Ed bloomberg is reporting these expanded restrictions could come earlier this week. The u. S. Commerce department declined to comment on the story. A china spokesperson called this the u. S. Weaponizing trade and take issues. Our colleague Mackenzie Hawkins pointed out this is not an escalation from the u. S. , it is a rethink of a yariel of a year long policy. Where do you stand on this . Joanne youre asking me to put on a policy wonk hat. I will do my best. The u. S. Wants to slow down chinas ability to use ai and develop ai applications. To the extent the u. S. Can succeed in that by restricting their access to these most advanced chips, the u. S. Will be successful. It is not the first time that trade policy has been used for things other than tamping down illegal trade. This is not an unfair trade practices response. It is not something that is authorized under wto rules. Nevertheless under National Security reasons the u. S. Is pursuing this strategy. It will be effective and it will slow china down. It is only going to accelerate chinas own investments in developing their own capabilities. We think they are a long way off from being able to replicate what asml has done, but by repeating the process that intel and ibm and global founders use, smick and get close to some of the most advanced chips as is shown in that huawei chip. Caroline we ask you to put a policy hat on. Do try to take that hat off when it comes to having the to such companies. You said you have limited your exposure because of some of the issues with u. S. China. What about nvidia that at the moment can sacrifice chinese sales. Ultimately do you want to be out of companies that have such exposure to china . Joanne the investor hat, the Portfolio Manager hat requires you look at policy. You need to handicap what will be in the u. S. Interests, what they will try to do, as well as the economic outlook. Advisors capital we do both. We then build up the bottom up Analysis Company by company. Nvidia is a great example. They have 70 opportunities. Demand is so strong for ai capabilities. We think if they lose a little bit from china they will make it up elsewhere. It looks like they will have a waiting list of companies that would like their most advanced chips. China could hurt in the longer run. If china is able to replicate the level and quality of chips that nvidia could otherwise supply, china will have to be satisfied with lower end graphics chips. Ultimately we do not think there will be a big shift in spending by china. Theyll have to be satisfied with lesser chips. Nvidia will be able to sell more of its higher end chips to u. S. And european and other Southeast Asian customers. Ed joanne feeney, partner and Portfolio Manager at Advisors Capital management and longtime researcher in the field of semiconductors. Sticking with chips, nvidias h 100 gpu has been one of the Technology Story of the years. Before the israel war broke out the chip giant had planned on holding it summit today in tel aviv with insight into its strategy expected but they canceled the event. Bloomberg technology visited the nvidia and looked at with the h 100 gpu used to train ai models looks like in the real world. This is an individual h 100 gpu. Nvidias ai accelerator. It is not just a chip that comes out of a plant. When we talk about the training ai models, we are talking about nvidias ai supercomputer. Ed that is eight gpus combined capable of 42 trillion operations per second. It is a server design and this is what it looks like under the lid. It starts with a gpu seen here. Individual ssms are topped with heat sinks. Those are connected in a single baseboard by interconnectors in that assembly alone weighs 60 pounds. Add cpus and other components and a finish system weighs 300 pounds. The scale in the real world is bigger still. Some of the most powerful large models are trained on the nvidia dg acts super pod, that is 32 systems combined into a scalable unit. At its most mindboggling scale dgx super pod can be up to 64 scalable units. That is more than 16,000 individual h100 gpus. The dgx infrastructure sent out to the hyper scale cloud producers. I wanted to get my hands on an h 100, caroline. It is not just this little chip. Caroline did you have to do squats to be able to pick that up . Ed i just wanted to demonstrate in the real world sometimes you have to dead lift. I already got a lot of flak for that on the show. Check it out online. Caroline is a great piece to digest what is behind technology. Coming up, we will get serious and turn our attention back to the latest in israel and hamas and the war and discuss the role of social media during times of crisis. More next. This is bloomberg technology. Ed amid the ongoing war between israel and hamas President Biden is weighing a visit to the region. Oliver crook is live in tel aviv. Bidens visit is largely speculative. There are other leaders coming to town. What is the latest on the ground . Oliver lets talk about the military action. Over the weekend we got confirmation that israel is saying the next stage of the war will involve a browned operation of some kind. That was confirmed over the weekend. Their focus has been on the aerial assault. They have been pummeling gaza for the last week and had a few evacuation passages, a few hours where they say they will not bomb major arteries. We had one today and yesterday on on saturday. The question is of aid. There is a that is not able to get through. There were reports about aid being able to move through the egyptian border. That has not been confirmed by us. In terms of diplomacy we are expecting olaf scholz to arrive tomorrow. Whether biden comes as a deterrent to show the support of the United States for israel, which has been fairly vocal at this point. Caroline you bring our attention to the human cost. Talk to us about the timing and time running out according to irans foreign minister, talking about if we are going to avoid an expansion to the conflict. Oliver we have been hearing from iran on the sidelines for the last few days. On friday it was the first ominous threat and then we had the foreign minister saying the time for the political solution is running out and the expansion of the war to other fronts is inevitable they said on x. This is part of the reason lincoln has been going to could talk this is part of the reason Antony Blinken has been going to qatar, egypt, bahrain. It is to get back channels communicating with iran but also deterrence. We have a second Aircraft Carrier to the Eastern Mediterranean all about trying to provoke that deterrence. It is not just iran. In the same way the israelis saw all of the horror on their phones, the rest of the arab world is doing the same thing on what is going on in gaza. You had protesters through the streets throughout this process. Caroline bloombergs oliver crook with the latest on the ground from tel aviv. Oliver just painted the picture of how much everyone has turned to social media in this moment and the Iranian Foreign minister posting on x. We want to understand how people are using social media. Nora, you are a director of digital justice and civil rights and you run the organizations platform accountability, the digital civil rights work there. How accountable are x, meta, tiktok, bytedance, how much are they looking for this moment of responsible nurturing of what is being put on the platforms . Nora thanks for having me. Most of the major platforms have failed the massive stress test over the last week and a half, in particular twitter or x has created the perfect environment for disinformation to thrive. People are turning to social media more than ever as their primary way of getting rapid information. Most of us are hungry to figure out what is going on on the ground and whether it is family members, journalists or others, we are turning to these platforms only to be met with a day lucia of mislabeled videos with a deluge of mislabeled videos, images from other time places. Elon musk has shown twitter has failed with a grand juror. His bad decisions have led us to this moment. He gutted critical teams, as other platforms have liked meta and tiktok in youtube. Elon musk has also change the blue check mark feature which in the scheme of all of these swirling forces one of the big problems. It in center by his people to subscribe and they pay a small fee, but their content gets boosted. If youre willing to pay that eight dollars your content might be featured in more peoples feeds. He also needs at money because advertisers have been fleeing the platform. One of his incentives has been to pay people for engagement and virality. Ed just for our audience, xs response to this has been to call hands on deck. They have said all staff are focused on the israelhamas war. They have given us data on Committee Notes action and for metas heart they have a special Operations Team with fluent hebrew and arabic speakers working 24 7 to review content. At issue seems to be video content, video purporting to show one thing when in reality they are another. What is your view on the role video is playing . Nora video is one of the last frontiers. It is very difficult to moderate video content. Elon musk pointing to Community Notes as a way for users to do his job is an adequate. It is also inadequate that a week and a half after the conflict escalated now is the moment social Media Companies are pulling their Crisis Centers together. That is days too late. Citing the ability to move hundreds of thousands of posts has also been an adequate. We have to understand the environment is there are millions of posts going out every day about this suspect the subject and active monthly users trying to get the content. The lack of teams and the lack of policies in place, the slow to respond to Crisis Centers are not enough to rein in the level of toxicity. Caroline ed nora, thank you for your time on the show. This is bloomberg technology. Fresh, warm hot dogs when im not selling hot dogs, i invest in a fund that advances innovations like robotics. Fresh, warm hot dogs, straight out of my torso one for you, one for you. Oh, youre a messy one. Cool, right . So cool. Anyone can become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq, a fund that gives you access to nasdaq100 innovations. Hot dogs fresh, warm hot dogs before investing carefully read and consider Fund Investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and more in prospectus at invesco. Com. Ed kkr racing 723 million in japans largest listing in five years. Shares begin trading october 25. Indonesias biggest firm plunged its most on record earlier today after revelations of a stock sale by a cofounder which ignited a selloff. They recovered after analysts argued the selloff was overdone and not supported by fundamentals. Caroline coming up we will turn our attention to the big apple. New york tech week is upon us. We are sitting down with the participants. From new york and San Francisco, this is bloomberg technology. When people come, they say theyve tried lots of diets, nothings worked or theyve lost the same 10, 20, 50 pounds over and over again. They need a real solution. 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