Budget estimate projections better than expected, but shortfall still expected Shawna De La Rosa | Dec 30, 2020 Share this: Florida’s General Revenue Estimating Conference increased the state’s general revenue projections by $1.486 billion in the current budget year and $623 million in fiscal year 2021-22, but a budget shortfall still looms. The increase restores 39 percent of the $5.4 billion two-year reduction in the estimates adopted by the GREC in August.
Between August and November, collections exceeded the previous estimate by $1 billion, according to a report by Florida TaxWatch. Sales tax is Florida’s largest source of funding for the general revenue, providing 75 percent of the the total collections. Early in the pandemic, Florida’s savings rate grew as many people stopped spending money. After August, consumers began making purchases and sales tax estimates were increased by $806.6 million for the 2020-21 fiscal year and $205.3 million for FY 2021-22. The tourism and recreation sector, however, continues to suffer. The estimate in that sector was reduced by 1 percent, or $43.9 million. Though the tourism sector is expected to recover next year, estimates are still 21.4 percent below pre-pandemic levels.