Bullish hogs and pigs report surprises analysts Michael Nepveux Last week, USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service released its latest Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, providing a detailed inventory of breeding and marketing hogs as of March 1. Producers use this data to determine production and marketing strategies, while the industry uses it to assess the markets and the future supply of product. This bullish report surprised industry analysts, with swine numbers coming in below their expectations. Hog and Pig Inventory The report showed that on March 1, all hogs and pigs were down to 74.773 million head, a decline of 1.8% from the same time last year. This decline surprised analysts as it was the opposite of what the industry was predicting and fell completely outside of the range of forecasts. Analysts had been expecting on average an increase of 0.1%, with the estimates ranging from a 1.5% decline to a 1.3% increase. This decrease was the first year-over-year decline for March since 2014, when the industry was disrupted from PEDv. The number of market hogs also declined by 1.8%, with USDA reporting 68.558 million head. This decline was also a shock to analysts, with pre-report expectations coming in at a 0.2% increase, with a range from a 1.6% decline to a 1.6% increase.