Cliff Notes: Policy on Hold as Risks Evolve : vimarsana.com

Cliff Notes: Policy on Hold as Risks Evolve

The Monthly CPI Indicator rose 0.6% (5.2%yr) in August, above the 0.3% (4.9%yr) print in July but still broadly in line with a trend deceleration since the peak of 8.4%yr in December 2022. While the print for headline inflation was in line with Westpac’s forecast, the component detail provided some surprises. Inflation in the housing segment was much weaker than anticipated – up 0.1% (6.6%yr) – driven by a fall in electricity prices (–1.3%mth) associated with the Energy Bill Relief Fund rebates in Melbourne. There were some key upside surprises too, including a 9.1% lift in fuel, a 1.3% increase in alcohol and tobacco prices, and a much more muted –0.1% fall in clothing and footwear than we initially anticipated. Underlying inflation momentum remained steady in August, with the Monthly Trimmed Mean holding flat at 5.6%yr. These developments, which in part reflects a stronger oil price (via fuel prices) and a weaker AUD (via imported components) – trends which seem to have persisted through to September – point to some upside risk to inflation over the near-term.

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