Transcripts For CNBC Power Lunch 20171219 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Power Lunch December 19, 2017

Stocks giving up early gains ahead of the tax vote. The dow transports did manage in an intraday record high before turning lower. Energy and Consumer Staples the best performing sectors. Real estate utilitys the biggest laggards as we are seeing the biggest rise in the ten dayyearold darden restaurant rallying, beating earnings estimates navistar is soaring to 10 the truck maker comfortably beating profit estimates revenues also beat navistar calling 2017 a breakthrough year of the company. Shares of chicago iron tanking, being bought by Mcdermott International for 6 billion in stock. The two companies provide construction and Engineering Services for the oil and Gas Industries that stock down almost 7 . Thank you very much, melissa. Welcome everybody, im tyler mathis mathisen we begin with breaking news. The house all set to vote on the big tax bill in the next half hour the biggest change to the u. S. Tax code since 1986 or thereabouts. It will affect every business and every household in this country one way or another the senate could vote tonight, send it to the white house for the president s signature. Ylan knew wi has been there forever it seems covering this story. Tyler, this looks like a done deal for republicans Vice President mike pence is coming to capitol hill to have lunch with the senate gop, hes going to be sticking around throughout the afternoon and into the evening just in case they need his help to break ties, but the only question mark here in the senate is republican jeff flake the last time we checked with his office, he said that he was undecided but republicans are already billing this tax plan as a Campaign Promise they have kept it is a major legislative victory for them even though new polling shows that the bill remains deeply unpopular the Harvard Harris poll shows only a third of americans support the tax bill broadly speaking but only about 68 of americans they they dont have enough information about this bill so clearly theyre not watching cnbc here when you look at specific provisions within the tax bill, the numbers look better. 80 of americans say they support expanding the Child Tax Credit so those are the numbers republicans will hone in on as they count on this tax bill as critical to cementing their hold on the majorities in congress in both the house and snaet in 2018. What is the margin that the gop have in the house . You mentioned flake might be the only one in the senate who could vote against it because everybody else i guess has declared how many votes can they afford to lose in the house and how close could it be . So they can afford to lose two. Right now senator john mccain is home in arizona saying he will miss the vote, that puts the republicans down to 51 republican votes so if jeff flake votes no, republicans will have 50 to the 49 no votes from democrats, assuming they all hold the line. So there has to be one more republican in there who waffles on this in order for Vice President mike pence to step in but clearly theyre not taking any chances. How about the house, ylan, whats the margin there . Do you know . The house needs 218 in order to pass this bill. It looks like the only real opposition is coming from those lawmakers from hightax states new york, new jersey, et cetera, who were going to be voting no on this but they are not a big enough block to really kill this bill. Ylan mui, thanks very much. Lets get tobob at the New York Stock Exchange for the latest hi, bob. The debate about whether or not theres any more juice left in this tax cut rally has begun. Take a look at the sectors its important to note that we start on the upside in most of the sectors, we are now mixed and banks which are up earlier or not that was a big beneficiary of the tax bill here. Other issues from the market, a little problem from the fang stocks we got a downgrade on apple, apple has been weak throughout the whole day so has the rest of the fang stocks overall but theyre all still positive the big question is what happens now that the tax bill is imminent i want to point out. While were debating the tax bill for months this got real at the end of november. Thats when the Senate Budget committee advanced legislation on tax reform and as you can see here, the market lifted off, it was moving sideways for the last several weeks and took off and this became real now we see a clear rally in the last few weeks, look at the major sectors since november 27 youve got the s p up 3 , the transport rallying, banks would be a very big beneficiary of tax cuts, also up strong, the russell 2000 and semiconductors, many of them pay a lower tax than other ones have been trading to the down side so now the debate is going to begin. What extent do we have this rally effectively over and should people take profits at this point i can tell you theres not a lot of consensus well talk about this more in the later hours and certainly tomorrow guys, back to you. Well see you soon, bob thank you very much. Here is the trillion question after a huge year this year, are stocks and your money likely to keep moving up next year or will a longawaited pullback finally happen Quincy Crosby is chief Market Strategist with prudential financial. Kevin mann is president and cio of walsh asset management. Do we sell stocks because the tax bill looks like its going to pass . Buy the rumor, sell the news its happening right now but its not going to last whats going to happen is youll see money come back in and the santa claus rally Gains Momentum the only thing i look at in terms of the santa claus rally is do we see a rebalancing of the pensions like we did last year to take advantage of those stock market moving up much higher and the tenyear yield moving up higher and then grabbing that yield and rebalancing. We saw that last year and we may have that this year. But as far as next year is concerned, you still have the same underpinning for the market and i think youre going to see the president talk more and more about Infrastructure Spending and that is going to be his next agenda piece before the election starts. Understood but kevin there has to be buyers is this line of thinking bunk . The people who buy stocks have extra money. They tent to live in states that are blue, new york, new jersey, connecticut. We dont know the real impact of everyone we talk to is nervous about the value of their home, about their ultimate tax burden our buyers going to pull out and see what happens to their Tax Obligations next year . I dont think so, i think theres plenty of reasons to be optimistic for 2018 and this has been one of the most hated bull market rallies in our countrys history. If you look at certain sectors of the market one area that is a net beneficiary of tax repatriati repatriation why . Because Big Companies have excess cash to spend. Dont they have excess cash right now that they havent spent in 2017. Theyll have more. So they need billions more than the billions they have on their balance sheet. And theres more drugs coming out in the patent and they dont have a pipeline to replace the revenue. The other area i see is small caps. You like infrastructure are you thinking in january with this tax bill under their belt that congress will have momentum for infrastructure in january . I think so, trump has already talked about it not just visavis the accident yesterday but that he wants to unveil a plan, whatever that means. At least initially but the point is i think its going to start to see the industrials which already have a bid from this plan and Global Growth but youll see the industrial commodities continu to pick up as long as chinese data continues to continue in the upside but Infrastructure Spending could be a big boost for this economy. Where is the money going to come from . I think theyll be creative one thing that will be interesting, the democrats have wanted this. At one point it was their plan then it got lost in the shuffle. Well see if he can get bipartisan support for it but clearly this is going to be a an underpinning for the market. Weve looked at this year as a very powerful american rally, and it has been but its been a global rally does that continue next year and if so, where is your best target of opportunity equity wise i think it does and i think 2017 will mark the year that the baton was passed officially from domestic equities to international equities, we like europe, germany in particular, we still like england, we like certain countries in latin america and we think the old brick trade minus russia is an attractive place to place money but theres still opportunities when it comes to the u. S. And if you look under the u. S. In financials is one particular area that can benefit from Rising Interest Rates and also benefit from a less more accommodative infrastructure. All right, quincy, kevin, thank you. Thank you. Pleasure. The s. E. C. Is talking about the Crypto Company 575 yesterday. The s. E. C. Has halted all trading in this stock, albeit temporarily. It went into effect this morning around the opening bell, 9 30 a. M. Eastern time. Its going to go until just shy of midnight january 3 and the reason why and because i have the document in front of me right now, the u. S. Securities and exchange commission, the s. E. C. , says that they are temporarily suspending tradings of the Crypto Company because of concerns regarding the accuracy and adequacy of information in the marketplace about, among other things, the compensation paper promotion, statements in the commission filings about the plans for the insiders in the company to sell their own stock, questions have arisen concerning transactions in the Company Stock in november of 2017. This is an interesting story because its the first time regulators have stepped in and formally cracked down on a company halting all of its trading because of what could be considered by some so much sketchy trading in the stock the reason why i mentioned such a big deal unlike these other stocks like the Riot Blockchain or the long fins that trade millions of shares because of some of this hyperbole around cryptocurrencies, this is a stock in the Crypto Company by the way, we have reached out for comment. Crypto Company Trades on average 800 or 900 shares a day. What . And you look at overall shares, it trades on average over the last 30, 60, 90 days. So in order to move a stock from 3 to 13 to 575, you need a few hundred shares of trading have l yum to make that happen so thats why regulators are looking strongly at one of these companies and thats why reason why it could be a reality check for some investors out there. You have to be careful. Lets take a step back awesome interview on your show last night i want our audience to step back and understand whats going on theres a Company Called block one. They have no product, they sell a token that they said has no purpose and they have no office. They have 700 million from investors. Theres a Company Called future fintech oh, you went there. I was going to say ftft. You mow what their former name was, sky people fruit juice. It was an apple concentrate company in china they went from fruit juice to blockchain. I should mention, you mention future fintech, ftft, the big disclosure there before you start thinking about this, this is a ten million market cap company, a stock thats lost about twothirds, three quarters of its value over the past year. So when we talk about companies who are looking to cash in on some of this craze, they changed their name to something thats blockchainy, fintechy and they get a bid. Im glad you made the distinction between the Crypto Company and long fin a little bit of a different story. The similarity here is that long fin financial basically a fintech company. Longfin financi fintech company. It went public last week then it bought another company that touted itself as offering a blockchain solution to importers and exporters out there. What happened to the stock after that it soared. So yesterday we had the ceo on mast money and heres what he said about the companys new valuation. Im a profitable good company. People are this market cap is not justified, if you look at my revenues, i valued my ipo pricing, look at it, i valued my pricing at 5. Five times my revenue. That company went from 5 at ipo to the high of 142 in yesterdays session. Had a roller coaster ride. During this interview the stock went down about 36 of the afterhours session only to trade higher in todays session but this shows you there is an appetite out there the market will do what the market does to these stocks, to be fair to the ceo and to be fair to this company but this shows you the mania surrounding anything with blockchain associated with. It put blockchain in your name fintech, blockchain, crypto, bitcoin, ai, machine learning. Our acronym is cnbc, theres a lot of opportunity there for blockchain, bitcoin, crypto, we could do the whole thing. Two cs in that name. And a b for bitcoin. Exactly right. Speaking of. Does it seem like everybodys talking about bitcoin and blockchain if you think so, we have some numbers that may surprise you. Dont go anywhere. We are moments away from the house vote on the biggest change to the american tax code in 30 years. It will imctpa you i promise. Power lunch returns. What we do every night is like something out of a strange dream. Except that the next morning. It all makes sense. Fedex powers Global Commerce with vast, farreaching networks. Deep knowledge of industries. And, yes. Maybe a little magic. Take a look. You are looking live as bruent musburger used to say, there will be a vote on the final version of the tax reform plan it will be the biggest change to the u. S. Tax code in 30 plus years, the senate have l vote on the same legislation, scheduled to, later tonight. Add to this just some days left to prevent a Government Shutdown and there the chairman of ways and means kevin brady really one of the fathers of this tax legislation just yielding the floor. Joining us to discuss is representative dave brat, republican from virginia, member of the freedom caucus. Congressman brat, good to have you with us. Do you represent the seventh district by any chance is that the district you represent . You got it, lucky seven. My father worked for a variety of congressmen who worked for the seven district for many years jack marsh, french slaugter. Wow, yup. Im very familiar the district is a little different than fs back then. But thats not why youre here to talk. I assume youre going to vot for this tax bill. Absolutely. I assume you expect its going to pass. Yup. But why are so many individual americans not convinced that its good for them the popularity is well below 50 depending on what poll you look at what are they misunderstanding well, i dont think theyre misunderstanding anything, they just watch d. C. And the swamp over the past couple decades and the average american hasnt had a wage rate increase in 30 years so you can hardly blame them for being skeptical, right and so weve got to convince them, the best evidence i always say, go to vegas, you can go to vegas and check the odds the odds on for this thing passing and Economic Growth and what will happen to the debt and deficit, what will really happen to your wages, politicians are going to sell you. Im very optimistic. I taught economics for 20 years at College Level and a single mom at 40,000 is going to get over a thousand back 70,000 family with two kids gets 20,059 back. Corporate rates go way down. Were competing with ireland that has a 13 rate. The deficit and the debt is the big deal the opponents are using that one as the biggie and so the tax bill itself, that may not pay for it, but the economy will if you keep growing at 3 like we are right now and the feds saying were getting to four for the next couple quarters maybe, that pays for it all we have to come up with is 150 billion a year. If youre growing at three, that does it. So across the board on every major issue i see, its a winner and so once people see in february their withholding go down and their takehome pay go up, thats going to be great. That will make people feel happy. Take me i suspect that one of the things that individual taxpayers question about this legislation the idea they get the idea that Corporate Taxes need to come down probably, that theyre coming down to make them more competitive but individual taxes dont come down as much. Put on your economics professor hat and explain how lower corporate and business taxes are going to in your view, im sure you believe flow to individuals in the form of higher wages and the like. The easiest argument is all of civilization you had massive central governments in charge of Human History until 1776 and everyone was poor. Everyone in the world made a thousand dollars per capita. Then what happened you decentralized, you put money back in the hands of people, you incentivize business and then you grow and so instead of making 1,000, the average american now makes 40,000 or 50,000 a year and thats the answer. China and india, when i started teaching economics 20 years ago were making a thousand dollars per capita now theyre up to ten grand because they went with free markets so you have to be pro business business is where you go to work every morning so if youre not pro business i dont know how you get pro growth and pro growth is the only thing that makes you richer to me its common sense. If you give money back to the consumer thats good, too, right . You get a demand side pop. But the only thing that increases productivity is people working with more capital in hair hands so were going to incentivize capital, give you full expensing in year one. Youre going to see more Capital Equipment purchases and then more hiring. S

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