Weakness in italy and spain. When it comes to the treasury yields, this is what were watching closely, the tenyear is trading at 2. 433 should we be doing a Weather Board . Like a freezing cold Weather Board . I saw this morning that 90 of the United States is freezing or below a third of the continental United States, the lower 48, are actually below zero. As was predicted. Its cold because its warm. Dont do this as a Global Warming thing. No, no, because only weather that proves Global Warming like every brush fire is Global Warming. Every drought. Every flood. Thats all Global Warming. You didnt see the day after tomorrow. It got freezing. If the atmosphere traps more heat, you would think it would not be as cold you know what sorkin, dont act like you studied this i have studied this what i have as it happens, i have. Sorkin, if it was 40 degrees, and it was a very warm winter, would that be indicative of Global Warming or just answer that question. If it was unseasonably warm, would you be saying thats Global Warming i would argue to you right now either way, its Global Warming. Fizz real if its really cold or really hot. Its Global Warming. There are longterm trends. Unless its a hot day in new york city. Its a new year, but no its a new year but nothing has changed. Heres the stories were watching reports say protesters in iran attacked police stations demonstrations continued for a fifth day. As many as 20 people have been killed if protests. The price of crude much more on whats behind the protests in a little bit well talk about the price of crude as well. There you see it, wti trading at 60. 34. So we stayed above the 60 handle for a while. Well see where that heads over the next couple of weeks bitcoin starting the new year in the red. Futures calling for the regulated and cboe, bitcoin future theres as investors think it will continue to fall as the Digital Currency has further to go. Were at 13,850. Cryptocurrency is well off of the highs after plunging more than 20 in december all those folks who jumped in, they jumped in at last and worst moment a year ago, if you had done that with the stock market, it would have worked perfectly. A computer glitch at u. S. Customs creating headaches nationwide fourhour outage continuing to create long lines at immigration checkpoints at airports across the country. All airports are currently back online a spokeswoman said that access to National Security databases was never compromised so passengers could screen completely now you have studied it. Last week, there with wereer number of people who made comments about Global Warming, and the temperature. I saw dave brigs, i saw that expert sportscaster at cnn, he couldnt believe that trump said something so scientifically stupid you have talked to leo about it . Leonardo dicaprio yeah. Maybe he can compare the science background i havent so you believe the science no matter what it is, it proves it. Got to be a better way to start the new year no matter what it is if theres no hurricanes for 12 years that proves it three in one year, it proves it. I was not suggesting this was proving anything i was not. But its cold it is extremely cold. On face value, you would think a warmer atmosphere you would have less of these really, really cold days, as a trend, at least . If theres more heat, eventually it will take over, right my understanding of it is that you are conflating all sorts of oh. Okay i got it all right. Good stocks to watch today. Bp expects a positive impact from future earnings from the u. S. Due to the new tax law. The company says lowering of the Corporate Tax will require a reevaluation of its deferred u. S. Tax assets. If its got losses its carrying forward, it would have offset 35 taxes. When you offset 21 taxes, your losses are not worth as much a lot of companies are talking about this all in all theyll benefit from the lower rate this is a shortterm impact. This is like the stuff that you were able to do, using losses from bad times, and the losses are not worth as much when you have a lower tax rate thats something for everyone to think about, even with deferred comp that will help you with your deferred comp. Smaller than yours. Excuse me smaller than yours. Think about deferred comp, anything you get in the future wont be quite as bad. Except were not corporations right but your overall tax rate at 37 thats true yeah 36. 9 or whatever right youre going to you still have your state and local, so you will be paying more. With the state and local taxes, obviously not necessarily, theres an article in the New York Times about how theyll try to offset it by doing things like making your taxes that you pay to the state a charitable deduction i dont think man, that statement you havent figured anything out with the state and local i dont think it will be successful either. For you, your taxes will go up have your tentacles reached into every area of tax law to figure something out with your situation with your state and local taxes and your agent stuff . Nope, i looked into it. Anything that can be done to try to lessen it is going to help, but it helps the income inequality its something you wanted for a while. This is good overall, right . You dont feel bad because it effects you, right do the news this is news. Deutsche bank i think its good good for corporations, good for income you see the three people on cbs asked whether they would have higher or lower all three lower. Mmhmm. The futures today are a replay of everything we saw last year up a bit what do you think overall, 2018 brings for the markets . I think its going to be higher i would also suggested to you the measure of this whole plan is not about what happens in the next two years you have to to me, youll have to measure this in five or ten years. Then youll know whether it worked or not. Thats the story not whether you get the stock market this is easy this is like handing out money you can hand out money and make the economy go faster. Thats not a hard thing to do. Like the stimulus thats not a hard thing to do what is hard to do is do it and sluggish wages see upticks thats not just the stock market that would be good. Well see if that continues then well measure all of this and measure the debt, and well have a real discussion about it. The debt. At 20 trillion, we do need to worry. Particularly if Interest Rates go up. I know. When it was 8 trillion, it was a lot. Deutsche banks Ceo John Cryan said the company will resume paying normal bonuses for 2017 and some employees will get raises apple says 29 replacement batteries for older iphones are available now. Last week apple said the replacement batteries would no be ready until late january. Apple offered the batteries after apologizing for slowing down the older phones. Thats one thing we may see this year yes or no, trillion dollars . On apple or any company on apple. Potentially thats what barrons went out on a limb and said i think were at 900 868. Its come down a bit i guess with the worries about the x sales, the 10. X, 10 x. 10, i think someone last week said that that apple news had cast appall on the entire sentiment for the market apple is an important part of a lot of the advances. I was looking at apple, alphabet, microsoft, amazon, facebook combined soared 43 for the year, to 3 3. 3 trillion. You have to watch those Technology Names closely President Trump is back in washington this morning and he is kicking off the year with a busy agenda. Eamon javers has more on that. Good morning happy new year good morning. Happy new year to you as well. The president spent christmas break in maralago and returned yesterday to washington, d. C. After spending the new years holiday in florida the president had two major Foreign Policy issues on his mind as he returned the first was on iran, putting out a tweet saying iran is failing on every level despite the terrible deal made with them by the obama administration. The iranian people are hungry for food and freedom, along with human rights the wealth of iran is being looted time for a change. That tweet in response to protests we saw in iran over the weekend in which several people were killed. Those protests began in the middle of the country. The regime struggling now to respond to them. Also on the president s mind is pakistan the president putting out this tweet yesterday as well saying that the United States has foolishly given pakistan more than 33 billion of aid over th past 15 years and they have given us nothing but lies and deset thinking our leaders as fools. They give safe haven to the terrorists we hunt in afghanistan with little help no more. The president returns to washington with two domestic issues on his mind according to aides ive talked to one is welfare reform. The president talked about that. Not clear exactly where the president is going to go on welfare reform aides have told me they think what hes talking about is a broad policy that would encourage people to get back to work job retraining, ending benefits over a period of time. Well see if they can get democrats on board for that. Then well see if they can get republican conservatives on board for a infrastructure plan. The other big agenda item that the Trump Administration comes into the year with theres question about whether fiscal conservatives will be enthusiastic about a massive Spending Program the Trump Administration talked about 2 200 billion in direct federal spending all of this to get americas infrastructure up and running again in 2018. All of that has to be done this year before we get too far into the political calendar because 2018 is a mid termt Midterm Election year. Is this a year trying to look for bipartisan issues, reaching across the aisle, or looking at welfare and just the republicans again. Its going to be tougher because you dont have the same rules in the senate judd gregg will be here talking about how you have to get 60 votes in the senate. Remember, republicans only have 51 votes in the senate now because they lost that senate seat in the election at the end of last year now the question is with that slim of a majority in the senate, what legislation can you get over the finish line 2017 was a difficult year for republicans and for the Trump Administration in terms of getting some keynote things through. The obamacare effort crashed and burned tax reform ultimately made it across the finish line so the question now is do they want to take another run at obamacare . Some in washington would like to do that. But with that narrow majority in the senate does that make any sense at all politically thats a question they have to ask. Without reconciliation, i dont know what you do with that is there any way that there becomes a real serious move by trump to convince the senate to change the rules they talked about it it never seems like its been a serious bully pu push for that you can do the speeches, but ultimately thats up for the Senate Mitch Mcconnell said no. And judd gregg said thats one of the things that makes the Senate Special if youre in the house, you dont have any power at all really you vote with your party you get assigned to a committee. The speaker of the house can take you off that committee if he wants to. Youre in lock step with the larger machine in the senate, youre one of 100 and you have all these powers including the filibuster that gives senators enormous sway you dont get into politics to have no power, you get into politics to have a say to republicans and democrats like they have that leverage politically and that the president , whoever he or she is in a given year has to talk to them and deal with them. I dont see the senate giving that up soon all right thank you. Thank you isnt there a chance that youll be living when your deferred comp you dont get it until after you retire. After separation from the company. Isnt there a chance you wont be living in new york or new jersey good reason to move that youre living in a lower taxed state. You could move. Because when you get older, wouldnt you want to move to a warmer place or you figure new york will have South Carolina weather by then. When are you going to do that well, im saying that i might move to where its warmer, unless it gets warmer here are we counting on that . Its not cooperating all of the arguments you wound them into one. Thats good. The broader markets will begin the first trading it was like across the board the windchill yesterday was like minus 10 i was at a hockey game outside an outdoor winter classic you went to that game i did you know who i saw . Who the mooch did you i did i wanted to have the mooch come on. I said how come you have a q rating higher than george clooney. Does he i think he does he goes on the view, gets record ratings. Should we have him on . Sure. Bring him on. Sure i have no problem with him lets start with the first trading day of the new year. The dow, s p 500 and nasdaq each hit several record milestones in 2017 and closed with the best year in four years for more on what to expect, we are joined by Ryan Dietrich from lpl financial. It sounds like i need to have my lpl levels checked the good ones should be high the bad ones should be low is lpl its not having anything to do with cholesterol what does it stand for well, lisco prime ledger, but its one of the largest independent broker dealers in the country. Happy this morning to be here to talk stocks with you on the economic side, drew mattis from Metlife Investment Management where were you before metlife . I thought you were at Deutsche Bank ubs when did this change . Earlier this last year last year im coming up on a year. Are you helping with the pay income increases that were seeing in the wage sector . Did you get a good deal to go . Im fine, joe youre doing well excellent. Ryan, youre 8 to 10 for the year thats not stepping out on a limb, is it . Its probably not but when you consider the fact that we had 20 gains last year, we think this can continue heres why we have global earnings finally kicking in emerging markets in the u. S. And developed markets. We have two years in a row of growth in all three of those we have not seen anything like that since before the financial crisis look at whats happening under the surface with the base medals copper breaking out. Those are signs that the gloefr all economy overall economy is good. We think theres very little chance for recession this year and we should have a continued bull market. I brought one stat for you dow gained 25 last year since 1950 that happened ten other times. The next year was higher eight times. Six of those times up over 10 or more. The average return was 13 on average. Long story short, because we had a good year last year doesnt mean so much you blindly become bearish, the stats suggest that we could be looking at double digit gains again this year. The economy, drew, its long in the tooth in terms of the recovery is there any reason to think that these die of old age or do we have to do something wrong to cause a recession . Usually have to do something wrong. Do you see anything like that happening . I dont see anything in the economy. This time it could be the tail waging the dog, instead of the dog waging the tail. If theres a problem t will come out of finlt mancial markets and move into the real economy so it could happen either way. There should be a reason why the Financial Markets there can be a reason why they get overinflated and then theres a break people are talking about how expensive everything is, that makes people nervous makes ceos nervous could that cause a break in the markets which would feedback into the economy i think so. If you see a big enough drop in the equity market, you see companies decide, hey, maybe now is not the time to back in the chicken and the egg. What is causing the drop in the markets. Does overevvaluation cause a drp fear could cause a evaluation people are worried that things are expensive, but are they priced appropriate le gily givee outlook. The answer is yes. Theres very little risk of recession but people have a hard time believing that because of how long the recovery has been going on the thing people talk about is we overinflate the tax cuts, that throws fuel on a hot economy, that causes the fed to act more quickly that doesnt create a crisis. Its from such a low level, too. Most people are saying could 4 , 5 cause a recession of longterm rates no, 4 or 5 wont. But its a matter of the uncertainty and the volatility if theres a big enough shock, for whatever reason, it can feed through to the real economy. It seems like you would need a north korea or an iran or an oil shock or Something Like that most of which are not predictable, right so the question is based on what we can predict or what we have a sense we can predict, the economy and the like, are things overpriced now the answer is no theres a reason to be optimistic that this recovery will reach a new record, it will go beyond the tenyear mark into 11 years thats our view. I think theres every reason to believe that will be the case. But it doesnt mean you can close your eyes and assume because i think everything is okay that everything is going to be okay. A lot of people are worried that the market is overdone and people are worried that the economy has gone on too long both of those things can have feedback loops i think we need something actual to do it. Sorkin, have you got tickets to what the olympics is a month away. I mean yes tickets for the plane yes ready to go. Kim jongun yes he wants to talk i have a button that can hit anywhere in the United States, but i wish the olympics well and hes planning on having a conversation about a delegation going to the olympics. Frpts that t