Bond market barely budged today. Was todays rally the last best chance to sell we dont want to rain on anybodys parade we are sure a lot of people out there are very happy that stocks rallied today, but at the same time for an asset class, the bond market that has moved so, you know, extraordinarily in the past week and a half or so, for it to barely move today, thats a head scratcher. First of all, lets be clear. Love mariah carey whenever i can get her, especially in the heat of the august summer season. But what you are talking about is treasury is at three basis points we havent been here since 2007. You have a dynamic with the bond market, long bond about to set historical lows. Lets talk about the rest of the world. In germany theres zew Economic Confidence back in 2011 levels when we were talking about green chutes or so it seemed. If you think about the equity markets euphoria today and is it a gift from santa or truly just a reminder that the market is responding to headlines that really are masking what is going on underneath the surface, maybe as a function of trade, look, thats where the bears are lining up. I think the bulls can say if you remove trade war and you actually had a dynamic where we felt comfortable that geopolitics as the trouble hot spots were not going to take the world down, that the economics for stocks right now in a low rate environment are not awful theyre not awful, but we havent removed trade war. We just said, you know what . Were going to delay trade war for now on certain goods. Right so i mean the bond market is obviously much more rational than the stock market. The stock markets moving based off a tweet it seems like every other week the bond market, much more rational theres nothing that has changed on the trade front, right . I mean we just kicked the can down the road to basically save the Holiday Season the market is seasonally weak until october, and you asked the question is now the best time to get out or the last you know, the last time to actually exit stocks and then when you add in the fact, the 210 is close to inverting, if that happens i think you see a fullblown algo selloff. To be fair we have seen the 2. 10 wait, guys. Are you going sounds like dan will be the voice. Mr. Sunshine here. Something constructive happened today by somebody saved christmas. Guys, the president created this latest crisis out of whole cloth. It is not what were talking about. On august 1st at 1 10 or 1 15 p. M. The s p was at 1. 5 , at all time highs at 3,000. All of a sudden we get a tweet about the extra 10 on 300 billion. This was created by them it was a crisis created by them and solved by them i think it is interesting that the s p 500, while it did gap significantly today, closed well below those levels from august 1st. You know it hasnt been solved. Of course not they created a crisis and they solved it and want to take credit for it. It is ridiculous. I think if you look at the message of the charts, has anything changed we are still in no mans lands we have been sandwiched between last mondays low, the 52day moving average, we failed there. I think you have to get above the 29. 50 level to make the case something has changed over the last week or two if you look at the internals, bret baierly 2 1 2 to one. It wasnt that big, broad move you get coming off a good trade below. I think theres more work to do here to call the all clear i think it is premature. Xlt was my final call yesterday, i said to sell it. A great today. It gapped up two bucks and closed up one. It is not a great day if you look at what happened in the broad market the s p closed up 1 1 2 bank of america closed up 30 bits. Both closed below 1 on the day. Thats not great strength to me. As you head into retail earnings in the next week or two and get disappointing earnings, theyre giving it all back it was a bad setup as you get the bounce into earnings and if they dont confirm it, i think to me theres plenty of pockets to risk. The fact we didnt close about 2950 is a problem, too i think rallies are sold here. I think people got off sides. Imglad you brought it up because best buy was your final trade yesterday, tim, be a seller part was because of the trade war. Does it encapsulate the danger of trading on the headlines, the trump tweet, the assumption tariffs would go into effect september 1st which theyre apparently not going to. Lets be clear. I will address your point of a bad final trade of mine last year we got core cpis were up more importantly, for a lot of the retailers, and i think we will hear it from walmart, so back to best buy best buy, who effectively is importing all of this stuff from asia is in a very, very difficult position for a company that to me has gone through both just the whole stek secular shift in the Business Model and where amazon has wrecked them, the reliance on that part of the world is unlike any other big box retailer in the word look, they already gave guidance the last round of earnings knocked it down. It is a company to me when it trades cheap, it will trade even cheaper. As we all agree on the desk, Nothing Happened today a 7 spike in Something Like best buy to me tells you just what kind of anxiety there is in that Business Model. And we sit here, this is a big moment theres trade, theres hong kong, theres brexit, theres argentina and we have the s p off 3 from the highs is that enough if you put it in context over the last six or seven months, maybe it is enough, right . Every single time it has been bought. Enough to get you back to the prior hide and maybe trade 1 or 2 above it, because as we talked about last night, since january 2018 when we had the blowoff top after the tax cuts in late 2017, we have basically just made three incremental new highs and it is not enough we flush after all of them the biggest one was 3 above a prior high. So whats the lesson of todays action to you, to sell this and then i think so. Buy pull backs what happens to this, mel, lets say the call with the chinese doesnt go well, lets say they dont come to washington in september, we have another tweet, the problem i see is the tit for tat thing, the risks for an accident increasing dramatically people forget the market sold off 20 in 2018. I think theres a dip that you may not want to buy in the not too distant future, especially given all of the uncertainty we have right now. Chartist, what is the message of the chart in your view . The message is nothing has changed over the last week, week and a half. Okay. Which means . I think we have to look at the move as no one is getting paid bulls arent getting paid here bears arent getting paid here we need resolution here. All right so is the bond market telling a different story with the tenyear yield barely budging on news of the tariff delay lets bring in jim bianco. Thank you for being with us. We had extraordinary moves in the bond market, particularly when you look at the tenyear yield and 30year yields as well today we had a risk on equities and we had a bond market that didnt move too much what is your takeaway . I think the stock market as you guys were talking about a minute ago is all about trade and it is all about tariffs and all about saving christmas but if you look at what the bond market has been doing, it habit been about trade has been about a global slowdown that started well before august i 1. It has accelerated through the fed meeting when paul did not deliver 50 and did a mid cycle adjustment the y50e8d curield curve has be inverted since may and the w0rorld numbers from Global Growth are slowing dramatically almost half of the world are at negative Interest Rates, x the United States. The bond market is sending a clear message. Theres a slowdown around the rest of the world. Trade was probably a piling on penalty, but removing that will not remove the fact that the world is slowing down. Thats what bond are reacting to, and it is sending a message that the funds rate is too high through the threemonth tenure the fed is slow and it is getting worried we will have a mistake. It is still a barometer of Global Growth concerns at this point, but does the fact that the tariffs are some of the tariffs have been rolled back at least until december 15th, does it put a different floor under the tenyear yield for instance . I mean when so many people were saying a test at 135, the prior low, was in the cards, does that view change do you think i dont think it changes a whole lot. What you really need is, look, if you really want to talk about Global Growth, we really have got to go to whats happening in europe i know tim mentioned the zw index, the lowest since 2011 it was not a good time in 2011 the german production numbers were an absolute disaster last week, minus 5 year over year. The only time that happens is when theyre in recession. A lot of people are looking at europe and saying, it is not are they in recession, it is how bad is the recession we are looking at japan and saying they cant get out of their own way and theyre going to raise taxes and we already have negative gdp numbers for third and Fourth Quarter estimated out of japan this is the problem the bond market is seeing we look at the naUnited States n we see it is okay, but around us is where the problem is. Jim, it is tim. I agree with you on europe we have talked about that. At what point do you think because did fed pivoted, the fed made an adjustment, the bond market has been cut in half. At some point the leading indicators that were leading us 18 months ago to where we are today, does the global die nami dynamic tell us we are supposed to go lower from here because we made a massive adjustment and as scary as it is to look at global Interest Rates where they are, and we could still say were still in 2018, this is something we are slowly healing on. I think when you look at the bond market, youre right. It has made an adjustment around the rest of the world. Thats why half of the yields are negative, but the u. S. Has been slow. The only thing thats come close to the alltime lows is the 30year. It essentially touched it today for the first time so our bond market is now the problem we face, is it is out of line you know what one of the highest Interest Rates in the developed world right now is it is the funds rate at 2 1 8. Only the 30year and 15year italian yields are higher. Everything else is lower thats never been the case that the funds rate has been that much an outlier. I think the bond market is looking at the slow stuff. Yes, you could probably make the case we are closer to a yield low around the rest of the world, but in the u. S. It looks like it is early innings for rates to fall because were so far behind everybody else. Jim, thanks for joining us. We appreciate it jim bianco of bianco research. I dont know if you guys saw the bloomberg article reporting on former fed chairman greenspan is opening the door to the possibility. The irony of the guy that might have opened the door in the first place. That is true. You know, is it the top in bond prices weve seen over the last 48 hours, jp morgan, pimco call for negative yield in the u. S. Lets think about it what is not as dominant as expected with bond yields going from 2 to 1. 60 over the last month . Staples have been okay, not great. Shouldnt the groups have been more dominant if yields continue to move lower. Gold stock was hit very, very hard today im curious if were at an inflexion rates. I think it makes sense to maintain a defensive posture right now. When i say defensive im not necessarily talking utilities and Consumer Staples but more so within tech. We like tech i would rather be software over semis. Companies like salesforce, adobe, and health care is a sector that has not performed well. At all. At all, and it has been in my opinion unfairly punished. Theres great med Tech Companies out there like intuitive surgical, add it labs that are absolutely crushing it and not getting any appreciation. Coming up, shares are getting burned on earnings one top analysts will break down tilray and tell us what it means. He will tell us what the stocks to take us higher are. Live in times square in new york city, more fast money right after this your daily dashboard from fidelity. A visual snapshot of your investments. Key portfolio events. All in one place. Because when its decision time. You need decision tech. Only from fidelity. You need decision tech. From the 5am wakers, to the 6am sleepers. Everyone uses their phone differently and in different places. Thats why Xfinity Mobile created a Wireless Network that auto connects you to millions of secure wifi hot spots. And the best lte everywhere else. Xfinity mobile is a different kind of Wireless Network designed to save you money. Save up to 400 a year on your wireless bill. Plus get 250 back when you buy an eligible phone. Click, call or visit a store today. Welcome back to fast money weve got an earnings alert. Shares of tilary trading at after hours lows lets get to aditi roy in San Francisco with the details. Melissa, shares are down more than 7 now. Tilray has been making investments at home and abroad the company says the investments are resulting in big topline growth, which it projects will continue total kilograms sold more than tripled to more than 5,500 kgs from last year Gross Margins increased to 27 quarter over quarter the company said the gross margin continues to be impacted by increased cost by ramping up cultivation facilities in canada and portugal the ceo was just on our air telling cnbc they dont want to miss out on Growth Opportunities at home or abroad. I think if the way we look at it is it is early days weerks are continuing to invest to build longterm value for our shareholders if we looked at individual countries like canada, for instance, we could be profitable there within within two quarters but when we look at one of the larger markets such as europe, it is still opportune time to invest. Some other Company Highlights tilray has increased cultivation space in portugal and canada and entered the sut cbd market with a hemp product from manitoba harvest. Bret cooper from consumer ed says we continue to believe that profitability for tilray is a ways off back to you. Aditi, thanks lets trade this before we get to that, a quick disclosure tim has a cannabis cnbts tilray is a component of it. All of our components are listed on cnbc. Com. Two quarters, profitability in canada. If they choose to look, kennedy has done a fantastic job of positioning the company with very impressive jv partners, whether it is abi, whether it is novartis, whether it is manitoba, whether it is Authentic Brands the reason we have an underweight position in the fund relative to market cap in the industry is theyre not doing anything in canada theyre not necessarily growing. In fact, theyre a distant, probably fourth or fifth player. I think on the margin side, the path to profitability is still unclear. While these relationships with the company i think are very important and they provide optionality, and i think it is a name because as part of an overall portfolio you should have exposure to, but it is hard to see where people are competing with the things in canada and to the consumer. Lets get more to the quarter and bring in rob wertheimer. Great to have you with us. You have been negative since may and thats the context of the comments here. What did you make of the quarter. Looks like they spent a lot to expand facilities. Yes, they did i didnt think the quarter was all that bad at first glance theres a couple of things happening. I think the Cannabis Market is transitioning to, you know, a hope and a dream, to lets see what we can actually deliver on results. We have seen that in the stock price over the last few months the results have a couple of components on the revenue side tilray did pretty well. They were selling more product, i think volume was up 85 quarter over quarter year over year theres a difference in the market, but the last quarter is pretty good growth pricing was weaker than we thought and it is a bit of a concern, but on the revenue side theyre actually doing okay. As you mentioned and your reporters showed, you have had some investment and thats fine. I think it is hard to really predict an ending coming with a great position in the industry that is highly transitional. The margin is weaker, maybe yeah, but overall the revenue was not so bad. When you look at markets beyond canada, rob, which were the important markets for tilray to really serve . Yeah, what day is it i guess . Theyre doing a good job trying to expand, as you know, into the u. S. When the u. S. , you know, sort of sorts out the various complications on what we can do with cbd marketing, whether you can have it for consumption or just for topicals or whatever, so thats obviously the biggest and most important market. Tilray is planting a bunch of flags in europe where it is lagging the u. S. In the Legal Environment and well sort of see how much it pays off in near term. Theres so many stocks, rob, where you sort of say this company is in growth mode, so it is going to spend money in order to grow and it is going to spend money in order to grow revenues. Why isnt that the case for cannabis stocks or is it and it is not for tilray this quarter i think to be fair, i think it is the case. Okay. I think that, you know, they have grown revenues. I think thats good. I think that theyve had this strategy a little more of trying to source in product in the wholesale market and for whatever reason the industry hasnt delivered as much as it could have over the last few months so they lagged a bit. It is a fine strategy just had some tightness, so theyre coming along the markets are not what they will be at maturity and thats not a real focus the focus is are they getting the brand out there, putting it on shelves and are consumers liking it. The nextquarter or the next maybe after that will be more tricky, when you laugh comparison for use of marijuana for adult use in canada. Is that a concern for you . It is a fair point. Thats one reason we didnt look at the year over year right now because adult use wasnt legal in canada a year ago but quarter over quarter theyre selling more product and thats a good thing the thing we have a concern with i