Transcripts For CNBC Fast Money 20240713 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Fast Money July 13, 2024

Space, facebook, the stock jumping after the social Network Announce the a Payment Service operating across all platforms straight to kait rooney in San Francisco with the details hey, kate. The social network is stream lining the Payment Option was facebook pay think of it as a wallet on facebook, lets you send payments to friends and shop on whats app and instagram this is the latest sign of the tech giant push into payments. We saw a little bit of that with libra and the ambitions in cryptocurrency but whats app and Facebook Messenger have not seen huge adoption when it comes to the current payment methods. Analyst tell me this is way to get the apps working together seamlessly and the hope is theyll be more engaged. Facebook is partnering with paypal and stripe on the back end and still support credit cards and paypal checkout. Analyst tell me this could be a positive for paypal since its a partner in the announcement. And facebook pays seems to be more focused on ecommerce than peer to peer options like ven movement o still paypal stock getting pennsylvania hit moved a little lower. Also appearing tor pressuring square look at those shares down more than 3 today, guys. Kate rooney in San Francisco for us how does this shake up in the fintech in the stocks. This could be a game changer given how many users there are across facebook and the business integrated solution. Its easy to us eye the Facebook Service as opposed to another service. Thats the tailwind for facebook im surprised facebook is not significantly higher after the last Earnings Release a week ago. I thought it was a fantastic report i thought it would push for the alltime highs of 211 or so. Im surprised. Maybe people are taking money off the table. But this is another tailwind in the facebook story dan yelled at me before saying i know what youre saying about facebook in the beginning and i will say it. I want to hate facebook with every. Fiber of your being. Thank you for saying that but you have to like the stock and i think it continues high frere here. Karen. Good for you youve been saying that a while and thats been right even though you hate it. They have political headwinds, right. And aside from the antitrust there is also, you know, the negative cloud overhoong ha hanging what do you do about political adz . And how much responsibility should they have in all that said, i think this is a good thing. Well see if it gets traction. Reminds me apple pay came out several years ago, almost no traction now its finding its way a lot more so im optimistic. I think its potentially a negative just for dollars chasing the payment space for them to move around to other securities. Interestingly kate mentioned she is not sure its about peer to peer and thats something you mentioned apple pay thats a big component. When you think about the messenger unit this is where they have seen growth since buying whats app. David marcus was put in charge of that a few years ago. You think of the timing of libra and this noubzment in a short period of time you scratch your head a bit ais aing this was the logical. Instead of rib ray. This was prior to libra get it in place get the 2. 5 billion. And the dollars. The irony about libra it was a dollarbacked cryptocurrency we cant get in the board room and see how it made the decisions. But this is the obvious choice and they have the guide to run from david marcus. And then you say is it about peer to peer or ecommerce would be a facebook pay button across the web all oefrp the world. And then you think about this is one of the most used mobile apps any one as a given time. And you think about china and the why we chat does well. The ecommerce is part of that but also peer to peer. This is the what facebook bulls have been waiting for for years. And its odd it comes after the libra disaster. Even putting aside being in the payment space its about keeping people on the platform, staying on the platform. Because more people staying on the platform, the longer on the platform, the better the ad dollars they get its the Virtuous Cycle. Thats the apple model, keeping people in the ecosystem. Its amazing that people havent left facebook in droves in terms of what we have seen the last 18 months but nobody cares. The advertisers stay and the user base stays and gross. This is one more reason there. If you are looking for the downstream play. The stock went from 80 to trough in september. Topped out at 1209 reemt this 50 level is a retracement of the move. Yes i understand that values is concerned but if you are looking to trade i think 100 gets to 100 makes a lot of sense. Here is an interesting question facebook riss 3. 5 on the announcement of this platform. Should traditional financials get a hire multiple for the of Digital Business they do i mean should we rethink how we think about a citigroup and jp morgan when was the last time im not asking that question i was going to stay stepped into a branch but today. An hour ago. You cant think of the last time i stepped in a branch i do everything on my phone. Ridiculous. And should banks be accorded a higher multiple. He we think banks should have a higher multiple for a lot of reasons. But one thing they have been investing in digital enormously. You have yet to see the fruits of the laboring paying off but back to the fintech discussion we know its forgoty and overowned. If they dough dont get the full fintech model they should get more than they are getting now. People are thinking they dont need a Traditional Bank anymore. For that reason thats one of the parts of the longer term bear case for banks. On the flipside obviously i love jp morgan. Use zell all the time. You need a Critical Mass i think its getting there i agree on the multiple being cheap. Even without needing to get the extra bump from a fintech valuation. That idea, i mean i cant credit for that idea mike may of wells favoring had a note out saying there should be a closer correlation to maybe a tech multiple for certain parts of the business. And of course some of the parts cant be unleashed unless you sell off some of the parts often times. But still maybe we could have the largest banks trading at 2 pe points higher if the consumer businesses were given higher valuation thats a significant pump, two pe points high are in percentage terms thats a big move in stocks im in karens camp, this is more to me a reason why banks dont need to exist necessarily in the world Going Forward yeah, maybe they can play in the game but if its a commodity advertised why should you have the high are valuation. And it also seems the argument you were making at the top of the cycle i mean to revalue the banks. Wove seen it time and time again about what the Bank Balances thechb investing in tech every top of the cycle for the last 25 years, at least ive been in the market and for some reason you never see multiples get too far stretched from where they are now. Back to the original question, mel, ask apple how easy it is to create a bank sort of structure or offer credit to consumers that sort of thing when you come from the tech universe you partner with someone like Goldman Sachs who doesnt have a lot of experience dealing with consumers the way they are right now with this apple card this is going to be really difficult for a lot of these guys what you may see is a big bank merge with paypal or something that has the infrastructure and has the tech build already and i would also take it a step further. We spent some time last night maybe talking about Google Alphabet what they do with the 120 or so billion dollars. If they didnt have regulatory scrutiny, i would tell you the google wahl set a zero and they need a paypal as part of their platform, that sort of thing that would be a logical thing but im not sure they can make the 150 billiondollar acquisition. Thats an interesting point in terms of google wallet. And if they had their druthers and no scrutiny, maybe they could buy something in the financial space but they cant so is facebook now going to attract the additional scrutiny of regulators because it wants to go into banking. The answer is absolutely yes. But i mean talk about scrutiny the guy has been on capitol hill twice, three times in the last 18 months and the stock does nothing but go higher. Theyve been as scrutinized as any companies and it doesnt matter we talked about it last night. The google headline in my opinion that should have been more than a 10 move downside. But guess what higher today. Nobody seems to care. The health data. We have been so desense advertised we should be uproar about thats a problem. Our the next guest says its not worth paying up for the payment stocks lets go off the charts with todd gordon trading analysis. First one is paypal and the conversation you were having is interesting. Guy i like what you said if you dont own it you can pie it. Unfortunately i own it this is the third Worst Holding in my portfolio paypal like you said, the 1000 lechl is key and if you could zoom in here you have an inverse head and shoulders, basically a lower low and then another higher low and move higher. We need to hold that level else im stopping out im not adding a lot of underperformance is the key take away. And paypal the other one with the opportunity to really make a move significantly higher was square space just really really vulnerable through the uptrend line we obviously have thedown trend which would be a catalyst through the 65 region. But if you continue to break through about 61 in square i would say thats a no touch as well those are the two have knots in the payment space. The one i like, that caught my attention was fisvp you can see in isnt rocket science. Where is the strength . We are making a new high in fisvp through 110 im looking at a add to the portfolio i like it in the payment space with regard to the consideration about larger cap banks with the higher multiple if they move to the new age of payments. Bank of america i think you could do a catch up here clearly a nice uptrend here. With and just made a new high through 33 process i looked at doing jp but its so far gone in this environment that i said maybe bank is a little bit of a better play and in the trades you see 50 bps op the upside since october helping the financials resteepening ever the yield curve. Bank of america a little bit of a catch up. Thank you, todd. Trading analysis. Com lori you said before you didnt like the payment space is it the valueses you dont like. That and also the dramatic shift in the market in terms what have investors want we know that yield dividends are more no vogue. You get a lot of that with the banks at a cheaper multiple than you get with utilities and reits which people are pushing back on these days the thing we have seen with the grat grarts great longtime is secular growth stories there is less appetite for that in the market. People have played out the trends andrea worktd a long time some investors are looking for the word but slightly more boring stories at this point with safety. A bore boring story is fisvp they expected earnings and Revenue Growth of 22 trading at what, 22 times. I just looked at it. Back in the old days you would say that would be growth at a reasonable price even though its a eabove a market multiple this is the nuts and bolts, the back bone of payments theyve been aquis active and done smart things and seems they are getting paid back for it but this is the stock i think you want to buy on pullbacks quickly just reported on november 8th a lot of analysts ramp etted the price target the high i saw was 125 li 126 i dont think its expensive its boring. So am i but never boring guy just sometimes. Most of the time. During the show mostly. Unfortunately. Karen for square, i mean it had all sorts of business but it sort of whittled down. It whittled down. Got rid of caviar pink its the timing on getting rid of caviar was a good move one of the knocks on the story had been that the rate of growth of the gpb was slowing down. In fact it had plateaued qb did not continue to slowdown that was a big positive. I like the story for square. Back to the banks though if i had to pick one i think citi bank has the most upside. Over jp morguen yes even though i like jp morgan stitty hasnt gotten to the alltime high. Its a tenth of where it used to be but hasnt gotten to the last year high and i think it could get there. It has more exposure outside the United States thats been way weighing on it. Coming up shares of sky works dropping after hours what does it mean for the chip sector apple reportedly tv in talks to bring on a major contributor in entertainment. Much more fast money right after this not much, how about you . Are you answering my text in person . I am. Yeah. Lol. Come on in. This is tech that helps you be there. The nissan altima. 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Everyone expect add major announcement saying something about china, usmca where are we going. In the end he didnt say anything major news. We were thinking maybe a new date for the mcdeal maybe a location for the China Signing he didnt do that. But he suggested that that deal is coming. Here is what he said were the ones deciding whether or not we want to make a deal were close a significant phase 1 trade deal with china could happen could happen soon. But we will only accept a deal if its good for the United States and our workers and our great companies. So the president saying it could happen soon is about as we close to the idea of any spechkts on the trade deem he also said he wants negative Interest Rates in the United States he says it happens in the other countries. He says the Federal Reserve is blocking that. He wants the Federal Reserve to get out of the wayon leash the power of the economy you know more than i do about what it would loobl in this country and the impact but the president convinced that was the right rate today. He said Something Like give me some of that. Give me that money. Negative Interest Rates eamon when you piece together what he said compared with larry cudd low on the closing bell earlier. It sounds like president december 15th tariffs could come into play. Because cudd low aid there is no movement on tariffs unless a deal is signed. And thats been the baseline assumption all along but what you heard today is the president suggesting that there is a possibility we dont get a deal remember he nounsed the deal back in october as having been completed pl well it looks like its not as completed as we thought in october when the president was in the oval office with the chinese delegation now, the president talking in a way about the possibility that we dont have a deal at all. And well see whether we can get there. But he is sort of teasing the possibility that were close but he has been doing that a lot and we never seem to get there. As a traeg doesnt he have to say if we dont get a deal we go with the stick. You have the stick, the carrot, you have to be prepared to use the stick and this is a president who is in a situation politically now, i mean kbeechlment looming we have the major public hearing tomorrow which is base going to be the news of the day in washington but also an election cycle coming up in 20. President will need a win at some point and so the political calculus i think for the president is different than for xi jinping who is president for life in beijing and has the longest time horizon of any president on earth. This president needs to do something before next year i dont think he wants to go into the election wutt a trade deal. This morning jim cramer said are we getting trump channelling mnuchin or navarro do you think did it lean one way or the other listen to larry cudd le on the closing bell i dont think larry knew what he was tranl. It remiepded me of the depart h line, the president you the hear marine 1 in thebacked process. The helicopter whirling president talks. Theeps were the same points the president makes at the south lawn depart yurs a lot of this almost word for word, the rhetoric is what weve heard from the president before. I dont know if it was more mnuchin or navarro ultimately he split the difference and ended up no where. Some of the tough op beijing rhetoric we heard. Signs of a deal coming we heard before but no Real Progress in terms of enlightenment where it lands. Lori from your standpoint im curious. If the president keeps doing this, is this enough to keep markets at record highs basically. I dont think so. I think weve been enjoying the fruits of whatever is coming out later this year. Weve been trading on that since august you mentioned the idea that, you know, trump needs a win at some point into Election Year ive been hearing that from investors since the end of august my question is investors and to you as well if he needs a win why havent we gotten one by now. The question is when tp ultimately the timing of this i think matters. Impeachment complicate that is a little bit because it could change the time horizon. But you might think the president is looking at the electoral calendar you have iowa, New Hampshire coming up in february. The president might want to counterprogram that. And you know

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