We are down across the board these would be losses for the week that will end four weeks of gain weve seen up to this point. Does this count as the first week of 2020, even though it is only two days . We could look at the fiveday thing and if it is up, we could say that is the first week this is up as we see crude oil prices jumping we see that wti is up 4. 1 the gain to 63. 72 a barrel ice brent up by 4. 3 Natural Gas Prices up. Crude is the real focus as tensions are on the rise in the middle east. The market is up 30 from last year that is a place for people to look this year as for gains. We are moving crude from 60. We are not moving from 62 but based on the tensions rising you think about the heighten tensions and what this will mean for the potential repercussions in the middle east the idea of additional strikes of any ships going through the straits of hormuz, people will be watching that closely theyve been blessing with the Oil Production for months. We always look forward at the beginning of each year and talk about what could possibly derail when you do all these check marks and everything seems bullish. We have been talking about rumsfeld comments the unknown, unknown. The possibility of a full fledged conflict that we thought was off the table after the American Public wanted nothing to do with that and after afghanistan and iraq trump has said again and again that he doesnt want to do that. Hes an isolationist except for opens a repossibility that there could be a full fledged shooting war something a lot more than what we had expected. Aemon jafers is with us. Rumsfeld said god knows encountered a lot of unknown unknowns after the shock and awe he was pushing for thats right. The unknown unknown is what this means for the u. S. Policy does this represent a major turning point. Is this just a Tactical Response to the situation on the ground in baghdad it is a huge escalation no matter what way you look at it we have a tweet from john bolton the former National Security advisor who left the white house. He says, congratulations to all of those involved in eliminating soleimani. Long in the making the head of the quds force hope this is the first step to regime change in tehran. The question is whether this tweet from ambassador bolton represents anybody still inside the reputation we dont know much about this strike specifically yet. We know it happened nearby the airport where soleimani was riding in a vehicle. Who is Qasem Soleimani and why such Significant Development he led irans quds force an enormously politically and military significant force inside the region. Syria, iraq, iran and elsewhere. He was actively planning attacks on u. S. Diplomats and on bases in iraq. He approved attacks on the u. S. Embassy and forces say he has been involved in proving attacks on americans in iraq for years at the direction of the president , u. S. Military has taken Decisive Action for killing soleimani the head of the quds force, u. S. Designated terrorist designation. The question is what future iranian attack plans will be in the wake on this strike of soleimani by the United States side the enormous figure inside iraq and iran in its hierarchy. Could there be a cyber response, economic response in the region and the like no official comment from the white house. Well wait and see if the president says anything. Hell be vacationing this morning and is expected to give a speech to evangelicals this morning. He is expected on tv this morning. Interesting, the bolton tweet. When you said that, i go, oh, here we go i was with i was wondering because weve seen some of his comments about President Trumps handling of north korea that was critical. We shouldnt be surprised. Even President Trump said hes ready for conflict anywhere. Trump said he was more hawkish than trump the question is does the tweet represent what others in the administration are thinking and has trump come to that way of thinking you probably dont follow every member of congress i follow the person who handles some of President Trumps social media. Looking on the way in, there is probably 30 retweeted quotes from republicans in the senate and the house by him just with huge backing of this on the other side, youve already heard from senator warn and biden and others if you dont have time to follow every Single Member of congress, follow him and you can see all in one little direction, who are sort of echoing boltons comments that this needed to be done thats the only thing the president has tweeted. Similar to our shot there. This is from last night there is our american flag. Aemon, mayor did he blazio says we will harden any of the targets here in new york city. Here we are sitting in times square the challenge for Law Enforcement there is the same as 9 11 you cant harden everything. The attacker has the benefit in that respect the question is, does iran want to clearly you would imagine the incentive is to respond dramatically do they want to invite an american response inside iran . The United States has escalated dramatically will iran escalate dramatically or will they see the attacks Cyber Attacks, proxy attacks . Or Additional Nuclear things. Goes back to the unknowns unknown unknowns. Who knows. Well see. There is a lot of rhetoric the cover of the New York Post yesterday or the day before was that quote frthat the u. S. Cannt do a thing im not saying that pushed President Trump but rhetoric matters on both sides. There is a lot more detail here, joe. Including who exactly was involved or killed in this strike we dont know all of the names of the people traveling with soleimani who may have died in this strike and what they were doing. And why he was in baghdad in the first place. Was this Something Else entirely we do need to hear from the president of the United States as well. What was he trying to achieve here and what does he want americans to be prepared for there is the thought of war it has been from the administration side that this guy was in a caravan planning more attacks on americans. Thats why he was over there they are already saying that and that it was preempted by this that plays into the democratic response. A lot of them are leading the samts with the idea that soleimani was a terrible person responsible for a lot of deaths. Biden is saying, we should have killed but we shouldnt have killed him. He was seen as a threat to the United States and forces in the area and had blood on his hands but what is the next step . What are we expecting . Where is this all leading . That seems to be the general consensus response in the last couple of hours. In a nice way of saying what iran exports across middle east for years and this guy was like one of the main mischief makers. The chief of the Iranian Intelligence on too much exporting iranian policy and miss chi mischief from around the world what did you feel when you heard that this happened, col. Did you keep emotions out of it or the ramifications there is a lot of emotions on be both sides soleimani has been targeted a long time. He has been an independent operator in the middle east. Gets very little super vision. A lot of talk about his ultimately taking a political post inside iran once he retired from the military. As head of the quds force as you guys have been suggesting earlier making mischief for a long time controlling a lot of the proxies in the middle east and elsewhere was there in iraq to talk to the malitias that are proxies of the iranians to further the mission and command further and so on. Soleimani was behind the deaths of a lot of americans. Including those aboard the uss cole conducted by the quds proxy. That was 20 years ago very nearly 15 years ago 2001. Something like that. How time flies. Hes been working on this for a long long time what is interesting here is what happens next one of the independent variables is his replacement his replacement will not get the free hand soleimani had. There will be a lot of super vision from at ttehran theyll see if his replacement can conduct himself without the super vision what will happen next military, approximately attacks, threats to shipping and so on. Attacks on the main land of the United States rather than just American Interest in the middle east, those are tacks are unlikely because what has been demonstrated is that the administration is probably going to respond unpleasantly. I dont think iran wants to get engaged in gender attacks on the main land of iran. It will be approximately attacks, continued attacks on American Interests in the middle east what will happen in iraq and in syria from tehran. We are looking at live pictures now of mourners in the streets of tehran. The question is what does this do to the people there we heard from john bolton saying he is hoping this is the first step in regime change. Soleimani was a popular figure polls show he was more popular and more liked than the president of tehran. What does this do for the political statement in iran . I never thought there was any hope of a regime change in iran. You remember some years ago, there were a Million People in the streets protesting a day after heads were breaken two days later, there was nobody in the streets regime change is extremely unlikely dont forget that the military establishment is closely related to and intertwined with the government they are selfreinforcing regime change under any circumstances was never likely this is going to make it less likely back then, it is all politicized. The point was made that it was no psychological or financial or any kind of support from the administration or United States. That that was an opportunity that was missed to try to engender and arab spring in iran you dont believe that you said the crowds dispersed . Why. So their hearts and minds may have been in it but they didnt have a chance to keep going. No. It is interesting they bring up the whole regime change. One thing likely to the action that there are moderates among the mulahs for example are the economic sanctions against both individuals and institutions plus increased sanctions outside iran that skirt those sanctions. That includes American Allies as well either sanctions or serious discussions behind closed doors. So if you are going to squeeze iran, the best way to do it is economically we need to integrate all the power. Use diplomacy and economics and military force where it is required i cant imagine one of our objectives achievable objectives is regime change inside iran because they are so closely intertwined there. Col. Just is a week ago, there was a story in the New York Times saying the entire region had changed and saudi a rab r rab arabia was changing and reaching out because they didnt think they have the backing of the Trump Administration what happened . Did thing change because the United States is now protecting its own interest in the middle east and was concerned about attacks on americans yeah. You raise a good point about both the convergence and divergence of interests. There is a proxy war in the middle east with fights for influence between iraq and saudi arabia these are ethnic fights as well as anything else one of the things that were obvious to those fighting in the middle east both allies in iran and the United States. This administration was interested in withdraw before and after the administration in 16 so there was a perception that the United States was going to withdraw from the United States but first withdraw to the middle east that engendered a great deal of activity on both sides what appears to have happened is no big change in our objectives. This will be perceived as a Tactical Response to what happened to the embassy and what happened so there is not going to be any perception that United States will become a foul weather friend that it will fight through thick and thin i think that the United States will reinforce and does not have any objectives there that include everybody else allies of the president talk about current and former members of congress. Gingrich said this is a perfect response that doesnt necessarily widen what happens but does send a message. Up to this point, a lot of what iran has been doing targeted oil and tankers and saudi production it has been financial. A lot of our response has been financial in terms of ratcheting up sanctions on iran do you think that irans response could be financial like that, not oil. Not killing troops could it stay compartment alliesed in a financial arena or would this spread . Dont forget that iran with proxies there, doesnt have complete control over them it is possible it does have physical attacks that iran cant control or is only going to marginally support i think we are liable to see a lot of activity in other areas of influence that you suggest Cyber Attacks both by iran and its proxies and economic attacks as well. Dont forget the United States are terrible at Cyber Defense but we are really good at offense. You can expect counter attacks of Something Like that with cyber too, we did that with iran before we did it before. Well look for it to happen again. Col. Thank you. Thank you for the Quick Response we appreciate you coming on this morning, thanks. When we return, more on the killing of irans top general. China reacting overnight and eunice yoon here to tell us what this means for u. S. china relations. You can see the futures indicated down for the dow s p down by about 42 points and the s p down the s p down right now, 1,551. 80 an ounce. Americans are compassionate and hardworking. We arent failing. Our politicians are failing. Thats why im running for president. To end the corporate takeover of the government. And give more power to the American People. Thats how well win healthcare, fair wages, and clean air and water as a right. Im tom steyer and i approve this message. China reacting to the u. S. Air strike eunice yoon with more. China is involved in this entire thing. We may not talk about phase one and phase two but a big part of the story as well. Well likely see iran move closer and closer to chinas or bit. China did respond urging restraint. It is set especially for the United States. The Foreign Ministry added that it opposes the use of force and International Relations and said the sovereignty and tore torry of iraq should be respected. As you know, sovereignty issues and safe guarding are important for china because they are worried about overseeing what happens to other countries the overall impact will be likely that iran will build this relationship even closer with china. Just this week, the foreign minister of iran was in beijing. The foreign minister said both countries need to stand up against bullying and unilateralism. This is his fourth visit there after xi earlier had said that china would continue to promote development from iran no matter how the situation changes. The relationship strategic because china wants to build its road and Belt Initiative also oil so china is one of the biggest importers of iranian oil despite the sanctions because of the relationship that china thinks is very important. In terms of sovereign issues, how does china propose to get involved chinas leader, kind of foe meanting the issues. It doesnt specify what it meant by that. At the same time, any time the chinese see an issue that appears as though it is going to infringe upon sovereignty of another nation, they are very quick to respond that way. A lot of it is because they are lying down that line to say because of the United States and other countries shouldnt get involved in other countrys affairs. But it seems like that is what iran has been doing. This is dealing with regional issues and the chaos theyve been spreading throughout the region but from the chinese perspective, they would see this as iraq suddenly having its territory infringed upon that could lead to steps where maybe the u. S. Would decide one day that it wants to have a strike on china because of an issue it feels is important. Anyway you look at this, it complicates the trade talks on another level . What is also interesting is that from chinas perspective, there has been a line of thinking that the u. S. Has been very much involved in the middle east while that has been happening, china will do what it needs to do in order to build up strength and what it needs to do in the region so not necessarily all bad from chinas perspective. Ive got that side of the aisle. I dont have everybody else to watch how the democrats are responding are we expecting a wag the dog tweet from someone schumer is probably ready from a wag the dog to diverse attention from impeachment, et cetera. This is early still this is not an individual that democrats want to exactly i think you are right. To me, this clearly wasnt wag the dog. This was years of this guy murdering americans and u. S. Troops it is tough to say that this wasnt a diversionary tactic but thats not to mean one of them will say coming up, well talk to a top analyst about what this escalation means for defense stocks to managing your fleet.