Transcripts For CNBC Squawk Box 20240713 : vimarsana.com

Transcripts For CNBC Squawk Box 20240713

And thats when the Trading Halted it slowed some of the panic selling, the machine selling and at the end of the day, still down more than that for the dow futures for the dow a decline of more than 2,000 points. Youre looking at a big bounceback but only half of the declines from yesterday. Up by 1100 . It found some support and then it was down 5 and then it closed about where it was indicated to open. Right. But we kept saying what if the garden variety correction is 12 we got a pandemic whats a decent where do we got an additional 18 or 19 yesterday. Well, in total. Down down 18 or 19. Yeah. If it goes from here up 1,000 today youll once again be the call of the bottom you will be ill take it. I hope im the call of the bottom. I hope you are too. But its just consensus. Just the feeling that everyone has at the same time that you express. Thats all it is thats many times that is the indicator. Do you think do you think we have more to go . Well, i understand the focus on the equity market it is right. Can we stay focus on oil no, treasury yields treasury yields theyre at zero. They have been the leading indicator of where equities are going. I think yesterday we got by the way, were looking at 0. 4 . We are back to 72 basis points which is where we were on friday. Theres good. So that is a positive indicator and treasury indicators have been leading the markets in all risk assets since the middle of january. Go back to january 14th and the 31st, while the market wasnt concerned about the coronavirus or the spread in the United States, the treasury yields were melting lower and financials topped out thats the first place you have to identify if you see some stability. I like what i saw yesterday from yields well, you need to add oil into the mix because that was a large part of yesterday and it got to 28. Joe, i agree with you. Heres what might happen though putin who is not our friend, hed like to crush shale mbs, no matter what happens, weve backed his moves so he needs to make some type of better arrangement with russia at this point to help us out they need to they need to come together. I dont know whether putin wants to because they want to crush shale, right its in the best interest of the United States, the russians and saudi arabia is to come together and have a dialogue. Back to 35, that would help. Yields back. I would agree with that. Were at 33. Yeah. 40, 35. Its the velocity of the moves thats been so shocking to kind of watch. We were sitting at alltime highs on february 19th. 12 trading days. Yeah. So theres been five instances on beckys point in terms of velocity where you have experienced during the course of one week a decline of greater than 10 obviously, the largest one was you were down 18 from october 6th of 08 to october 10th of 08. The other instances are 87, 2000 and 2001. You lost 11 in the last week of february so the question becomes everyone believes in the recovery if you look back on all of the instances all these instances there is a v recovery. You have to identify is it a lower case v or an upper case v. Thats the question. So i saw some notes yesterday where people are asking is this a u recovery for these particular industries where theres a big fear factor. To u recovery only happened after 2000, 2001 you had the dotcom bubble burst. Do you think theyll start booking cruise ships you had the experience of 9 11 and 87, it took you two years to recover and 08, five years to recover the experience that most people are trying to identity with right now is december of 2018. That took you five months to recover so markets are moving much faster. I think were getting acclimated to the different type of marketplace and lets understand this is biological in nature we never experienced this. Let me ask you the question that we were asking yesterday that i dont know the answer to which is what do you think the markets think in terms of duration and extent and scale of the problem here, not necessity of the health care unto itself which is real but the fear factor and how many people are not going to work, doing to restaurants, getting on the plane . You know markets discount things. But its what we have been talking about for three weeks happening. But i would argue until the past week, there was a view that somehow it was not doing to come here in some meaningful way. We have italy in lockdown. When someone like kyle bass answers you straight up and says its mostly in the market, why dont you accept it or put that into your thinking that someone that smart who had skin in the game because you have to have. But im asking the question of joe, why are we i dont understand. I kind of agree with what joe is saying. I think there will be a point where we see know better. Well see an escalation in the number of cases that are reported here in the United States we see an escalation and the market will desensitize to that. And the market will stop going down i think you have to go back and becky mentioned 12 days ago where we were at alltime highs. Greed takes the form of excessive leverage thats nourished by excessive liquidity. Thats where we were 12 days ago and where we are now and when we get to the point of stabilization will be fear and fear is when you still have that excessive liquidity and the leverage doesnt want it were getting to that point where there are liquidities out there, but speculators are saying we dont want to accept that leverage. We are getting close to that point, but i think for the investor at home theres an interesting perspective here of how you have to treat this because it is happening so fast, you have to have the Warren Buffett mentality and treat this as a passive investment. Let me explain what i mean by that if youre invested in private equity right now, is it visible to you whats going on in the investments . Its not andrew, your house is going to decline 10 over the next week and then in the following three months it could go down at 10 , are you saying, joe, im going to sell my house so i think the investor at home has to understand this and treat it passively and i think were becoming more financially literate. If you own an airline you know whats happening. You dont need it to be or the publicly traded if youre a publicly traded company and own an airline. Are you going to act on it . It was fast on the upside too. If you look at how far this pull back is taken us, for the nasdaq youre still only back at the lowest level that we saw since october 9th of last year the damage is little bit more if you look at the other indices. For the s p 500 it goes everything back to everything we gained from june 3rd of last year and the dow, back to january of last year 14 months. The markets get emotional and we get emotional everybody that walked by me i mean, i dont want anyone coming near me its youve adopted my freakish hand washing and purelling have you seen the toilet paper, whats with think of things that you run out of. There are things make do you know, food, water. Some you know, toilet paper. Because there were shortages in japan. Ill figure something out. The question becomes is there a the warmth to unlock the economy and for there to be on the other side, a rebound. I thought the president lets talk about the president. President trump now says hes going to be meeting with senate and House Republicans today, the ones that arent selfquarantined, to discuss a possible tax relief measure in response to the coronavirus. Are going to be asking tomorrow, were seeing the senate, were doing to be meeting with the House Republicans, mitch mcconnell, everybody. And discussing a possible payroll tax cut or relief, substantial relief, very substantial relief thats a big number were also going to be talking about hourly wage earners getting help so that they can be in a position where theyre not ever going to miss a paycheck. Wall street journal reports that Peter Navorro and Jared Kushner are pushing for a payroll tax cut and larry kudlow and mnuchin are calling for measures for helping those without sick leave. Im in the latter camp. The payroll tax cut does and help anybody who is not getting paid, staying home and their tips have disappeared or anything else. But thats what i saw jason furman making that case yesterday. They tried that back when he was advising president obama. He wished they had done more. I still think well have a conversation about bailouts of industries that hasnt even begun yet. Targeted on the industries and the workers. I agree with becky. I think specifically talking about hourly wage earnersand supporting them, thats priority number one has to be. Look, we should make that people are still incentivized for not going to work, for things not their fault we want them to stay home and not risk infecting more people shouldnt be that they go without pay for that. I think the president s Economic Team should walk in with the dow jones transports and theres the reason that you have to support the travel industry obviously, the market is telling you a story there thats a particularly ominous one i think there are other measures that they need to enact here to make sure that investors are not discouraged to investing you actually want to encourage at this point investing in the stock market you can take the 401 k annual limit, you can raise that to 25,000. You can take the capital loss on an annualized basis thats been 3,000 for a capital loss since the last 40 years raise that to 25,000. You can take s. A. L. T. Limits after raise them to 25 you can target lets encourage investment in the market. S. A. L. T. Limits would help people on the coast where you have seen these things but i dont think thats targeted enough raising the s. A. L. T. Limits on things and if you take the moves that look like youre only helping the stock market. I think, listen, helping the stock market encouraging assets and investment into assets has been part of the story for the last ten years right they also will be part of the reason but youre seeing the inequality effect thats come in i would say that the moves we took during the financial crisis led us to the point that you had many people feeling like they were not part of the system. And i saw i think if you look at some of those things you look at im with becky on this one i have to say only because i dont think its politically palatable to be helping investors at this point. The wealthy, theyre probably going to get through this okay in italy theres no mortgae mortgage payments. But you have to have a broad sweeping measure of policies, they have to come from a targeting specifically main street, wall street, look at yesterday the way that the european bond market rated thats a glaring signal that you need global coordination from Central Banks to support that area of contagion. Three year hour, so just quickly. I was reading ed bastion im not laughing but i couldnt help but think hes like why did i say that the last time why did i do that three weeks ago . How much is that, 1 billion 100 million. But i said it. I know. I said it then. But then the next week its like holy crap i hope we can stay in business, wheres my 100 million what was he doing, carbon okay. Good intentions. Yeah. Good intentions. Theres more of a debate to be had about all of the issues but lets give you an update right now on the coronavirus outbreak in america right here the cdc now recommending the following. Joe, you have to listen to this one. All right go ahead. People over 60 years old how do you know that . You cant tell. Oh, i trust me, i can tell or anyone who has a chronic medical condition, buckle down for a lengthy stay at home youre built like an ox so youre going to be fine, but that means stocking up on medication, Household Items and groceries. The cdc warning people in the at risk categories to avoid nonessential travel. This includes long plane trips and any cruises. Speaking of cruises the grand princess has docked in california after 21 people on board tested positive for the coronavirus. The thousands of people aboard will disembark and will be quarantined for 14 days at military bases in california, texas and georgia. This is one of the issues that President Trump he didnt want the numbers to go up but the numbers are going to go up boston has separately canceled the st. Patricks day parade organizers of coachella are reportedly planning to postpone from april to october and some colleges including princeton now telling students not to come back from spring break and moving the lectures online and delivery fees will be waived, allowing people to stay home and get their medication. Meantime, the white house saying President Trump has not been tested for the virus because he doesnt have any symptoms and hasnt come into prolonged close contact with any known patients. However, president s incoming chief of staff mark meadows is under selfquarantine after possibly coming into contact with someone who did test positive for the coronavirus. All at the cpac. Including the congressman gaetz. And doug collins and gosar. And ted cruz. Ted cruz. My question to you, these conferences, these events, these festivals, all being shuttered how long do they get shuttered for and what is in the market on that the reason i ask you, you look at south by southwest, i dont know if you saw the interview with the ceo of that company, that company had no insurance. Right. They dont do it this year, they probably cant do it next year. Theyre trying not to refund the peoples money but they have tens of millions they they have to pay out there are other festivals, over events and by the way we hit the big one, the olympics. All of the expenses, the sponsors has spent, theres insurance there but not enough to go around it gets complicated very quickly. I dont know if thats baked into the market just yet. I dont think anyone knows if thats baked into the market i go back to what i said before. This is biological in nature how are we to know what the outcome is going to be from two to three months from now were determining if we should be closing schools or not. Its here and here. Really hasnt happened much. Look, the good news, look at the numbers in south korea and president xi yeah, singapore looks warmer. Its possible that things by the way, where they took very draconian measures. Are we six weeks behind, eight weeks behind good example may be whats happening in italy right now the country has expanded travel restrictions from just the northern provinces to the entire country at this point. This is part of an effort to try and control the spread of the coronavirus. That means that all of italys 60 Million People have to demonstrate a need if they want to travel outside their home areas. All public gatherings will be banned and restaurants and cafes have to close at dusk. Schools will be closed until april 3rd. Italys premier told people to stay home. He said the severe measures are needed to defend the most fragile members of italian society. I think he specifically told people stay home, you want to make sure you protect your grandparents well bring you a live update later on this morning but these are probably the most draconian measures taken in a western society in peacetime. I date my chronological age of my hair which is about 35. There are questions about how much is age, how much is underlying conditions. And get all your prescriptions filled i need fiber con, i have no high Blood Pressure or cholesterol. I take that probee shouse stuff. You did not take that, unfortunately. Then centrum silver. Anyway do you take any pills at all i takes all sorts of im embarrassed i got to stock up on fiber con the only pill i take every day. Im trying to, you know, keep going. No question. No question. Now e. D. Is not an underlying medical condition, do you know, joe . It just got very up comfortable very, very quickly. Crude is staging a comeback since the first gulf war details next well take you live to china i was looking at, you know, you see these accidental photos taken and people on a bridge, wuhan, its a travel ban, no, i dont think im going there. Well go to china and the latest Economic Impact on the outbreak. Check this out, this was the scene in south korea normally busy airport. I dont think thats like at midnight thats what it looks like. A few passengers were greeted by vast empty terminals and many countries have imposed restrictions on travelers coming from south korea because of the outbreak there i dont know well be right back. The cnbc program is sponsored by baird awesome internet. Its more than just fast. It keeps all your devices running smoothly. With builtin security that protects your kids. No matter what theyre up to. It protects your info. And gives you 24 7 peace of mind. That if its connected, its protected. Even that that petcamera thingy. [ whines ] can your internet do that . Xfinity xfi can because its. Simple, easy, awesome. [ barking ] welcome back to squawk box this morning word from apple this morning that 38 of the 42 stores in china have been reopened after extending closures due to the coronavirus. Chinese president xi flying into wuhan, china, thats good news and a sign to the world perhaps that things are Getting Better there. We want to get to eunice yu in wuhan. Thanks so much. President xi jinping toured a prefabricated hospital, the first one that was debtcaded for coronavirus patients so he rallied medical workers today and greeted patients via the hospitals teleconference conferencing system. His visit coincides with the closure of the last of the 14 popup clinics in wuhan. And as i was saying, state media has declared this as a victory they say that victory against the virus is near. Now, this comes as the country is trying to get the economy back on track and the latest data has shown that the epidemic is depressing prices the prices at the factory gate down by 0. 4 year over year sung guesting weak demand and the core cpi is at a low at 1 food prices were higher at 29. 9 and that was due to transport issues as well as hoarding most likely looking ahead, most Analysts Expect that inflation will continue to face downward pressure because of the falling agricultural prices. And then the slump in oil prices as well as worldwide demand. Guys okay. Eunice, thank you for that report. And oil prices are bouncing a little bit anyway this morning after plunging 24 yesterday, the worst one day drop since 1991 i think that was the first gulf war. Following the failed opec deal i remember where i was it sparked a price war joining us on the squawk news line is our own Brian Sullivan we were talking earlier about whether the key players here have something to gain by maybe not being quite as i dont know,

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