Transcripts For CNBC Squawk Box 20240713 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Squawk Box July 13, 2024

That gives you a better indication of where trading would be if we were to open here look at the treasury market. Weve been watching that closely too joe did anyone else see 5. 7 and say, oh, it is not nine . I had the same reaction i saw the etfs, i actually thought, occasion. 5. 6 or 5. 7, which is just crazy. We keep trying to figure out where is the bottom. Look at the 10year note yield of 1. 15 a week ago, you were looking at below. 7 . The moves we have seen have been pretty phenomenal. The government is stepping up its efforts to pass a massive stimulus many are betting on whether it will be big enough the Federal Reserve is pulling out its own tools. We have huge Team Coverage of these major stories. Getting over to eamon. Starting with you in washington. Good morning. It was just 24 hours ago we were talking about the idea that american politics has really changed. Every 24hour news cycle, it is different. And now embracing the idea of sending 1,000 checks to just about every american the Trump Administration that seemingly comes from the andrew yang camp of the Democratic Party but that shows you how fast things are changing in politics they are also asking for an overall up to 1. 2 trillion stimulus bill. That is the request made yesterday on capitol hill. Im told by senate aids that they are working on the phase two bill that has already passed the house that has things like paid sick leave in it. There are still a couple of senators where they hope that will land. Theyll continue to work on that larger package how did they sell that idea. He went into lunch yesterday briefing senators on just how bad the u. S. Economy could get it could be up to 20 unemployment that is a shocking number. That goes back to the depression era we havent seen numbers like that we are talking about a scarey scenario from yesterday showing the need for urgent action now he said dont worry about that right now. In different times well fix the deficit. This is not the time to worry about it thats when the government has to step up guys, well wait and see where they land. Also expecting white house briefings at 11 30 this morning. American politics shifting every 24 hours here. We are working through all of that in real time. Lets go over to steve thanks a lot. The Federal Reserve in fairly record breaking speed here enacting a bunch of programs just over 12 hours ago, they did the primary program, the credit industry that was filed yesterday morning and in the afternoon, it came out with two now for the rest of the week, 500 billion overnight repo so it will offer a trillion a day. The primary dealer Credit Facility there will be loans on a range of assets. Corporate bonds, muni, assetbacked paper they can take it to the fed and get it basically financed overnight or up to 90 days the commercial paper that buys from u. S. Issuers up to 700 billion. Importantly, this comes with a 10 billion backstop let me tell you what barclay said helping to unclog dealer Balance Sheets that has been just one of the problems we have had out there in addition to money markets selling. People withdrawing from money market funds well have to see if that together with this stuff eamon is reporting are enough to create some is calm in these markets. Steve, just talking about the window i think i heard you saying yesterday there was some complaints about how the rates were higher than they would be in the market. Okay, fine go to the market dont come to the window right fair enough. It was the cpff. The issue is this. The fed was charging 200 over ois. The market was at 122. The result was that the market didnt unclog. You are right in the sense that another person i talked to said okay if you are the coo of a company. Youll pay over for a while and if you need it, you can have this other facility. The fed should have come in at or below that market eamon, the similarities with yang this is a oneshot deal giving out 1,000 to the public. With yang, there was no pandemic that doesnt mean politics have suddenly melded where we are just going to write checks, right . Well we are it does mean that. We do have a pandemic. It is a oneshot deal and a pandemic let me ask you this. Think about what happens when you do this. The idea here is that you are replacing about two weeks of lost wages because they are closing things down for 15 days what we dont know we dont know how long that is going to go. If you are a waitress and you lost your job and you cant get another job because everything is shut down, what are you going to do . Turning that off becomes tricky. This is hard. The criticism that it wont go out into the economy thats not the reason. They need money and they are hurting and they dont have cash just because it doesnt immediately help the overall economy in terms of demand i dont think that is relevant people need it what im suggesting is that once you start doing this, it becomes difficult to stop. People will still be out of work after this for two weeks and two weeks after that and two weeks after that this is where we stand now at our home offices how long this will last. The politics of this though are actually that we are going to come together because there is going to be this massive stimulus where eamon is going, joe, i think you agree. Ultimately what is going to happen, you are siege the Elizabeth Warrens saying if we are going to give out money, we need to have these stipulations and others what is going to happen, you need massive stimulus. You dont want strings attached. You want as many people to take this as possible yes you want this to happen. Andrew, you want this to happen as quickly but probably you want it to be more targeted you start thinking about how to hand that many away. It needs to go to the people who have lost their jobs and are out of work and to the Small Business owners. I got a letter from a guy im hoping to have on the show a Restaurant Owner he laid off 4,000 employees on monday it would take him two weeks of revenue to get those places up and running because hed have to bring in managers and staff. I dont need money, you dont need money now id like to see that money go to people that need it. I talked to an accountant in new jersey who said hes got 20 clients this week who had to layoff 50 or more of their staff. Caterers, limo service, moving companies, tree Service Providers are all dead in the water. Where is where the immediate incredible shock thats where the money needs to go i saw aoc yesterday who said something about wait a second, boeing had 38 billion in buy backs, now we are talking about 60 billion bailout for the industry nobody is safing anything for a rainy day. I almost agree with that. You blow all of this money out and now you are down joe, let me suggest that ultimately you going to tell me how it is, andrew no. Ill suggest any Stimulus Program we have will privatize the gains. Thats what happens in a crisis. When p it is over, there needs to be a discussion about financial responsibility in this country that we dont have in the best of times to have insurance on hand for when these happens. Boeing employees 100,000 people to change the policy in the moment is too painful. Weve had that debate too many times. I agree with you. I think we have to look at all of the esg stake holder stuff and realize, we need profits to share with our stake holders if you blow all this money you come to a time like this, you realize, wow Share Holders really do need to satisfy any others you need to be profitable and not planting trees in africa we saw what happened in 2008. We have chris waiting in the wings. Well come back to you in a bit. Vice chairman and wall street journalist commenter greg ipp is with us on the cnbc news line. Good morning you just heard a little of the debate weve been having do you look at this stimulus plan and think it is enough . Caller i think it is very clear that weve gone past the point that the fed and others have gone on their own the government has to step up. This feels like it is in the ballpark you need to have multiple different elements in it credit guarantees, income support for people who are losing their jobs. I think what we see here is appropriately at this phase, a lot of the costs now move from public to private Balance Sheets greg, youve heard this plan suggesting we could have 20 unemployment which would be remarkable and remarkably sad. Caller we are dealing with an unprecedented shock i dont know what to look at to understand this. It is like a heart attack and each minute the heart attack goes on, more of the muscle dies we saw figures yesterday from the travel industry. This is one industry looking at a third decline in their business that would push the Unemployment Rate up to 6 a doubling of unemployment in one industry alone the uncertainty is tremendous. How long does this get and how long do the shut downs and social distancing get . If there is anybenefit to underestimating. You may as well start with one of the bleaker prognosises and go from there. You were sounding the alarm on dysfunction in the treasury market earlier this week there is talk about whether we should shut the markets down caller although the stock market has been volatile, the equity market has performed well the really alarming thing over the past week or so was the freeze up in fixed credit markets as well as Corporate Credit and many other Business Funding markets. The fed has moved aggressively to tackle this problem at the core of the system with this massive surge trying to liquify. The liquidity side, the credit support side needed to be built out further. The good news, the fed, a little late but nonetheless converted the paper stock yesterday and allowing the dealers to fund the broad range of collateral. The fed is ramping up to fill out more complete support that theyve provided many markets are still functioning very poorly but what well be able to do if we get some risk capital out of this, we can look to a more aggressive, new generation of the programs paired up with capital and guarantees to replicate some of the programs joe has a question for you. I want to ask greg a question i put one of gregs books behind me butit didnt make it in in terms of the shot. Greg, looking at the 20 is it possible that is really transitory if we went into this with what people say was a pretty well functioning economy with grow and Everything Else, does what we are going through actually break that so we can no longer count on the rebound or does that 20 linger and become depressionlike soup lines . I would think we could bounce back quickly and once people left their houses, the Service Industry might bounce. Am i wrong laying out that scenario. We have seen these natural shocks, you do get a sudden stop after the shock passes, you do come back to life fairly rapidly. In louisiana after katrina, it moved back in hong kong, the economy shrank then there was the sars outbreak and it came back it is bigger than all the United States it is the entire world going into cardiac arrest at the same time coming out of it, we dont know that we know when earthquakes end or disasters end, we dont know when the lockdown can be lifted. We have a few templates from china and south korea, a few countries that have gotten past the worst of it. That gives me some hope that this will last about a month to that point, the stimulus package is very encouraging. The longer this goes on, the companies that are illiquid, they dont have the cash they become insolvent. These workers will not have jobs to go back already talking about the politicians that want to make sure they can enact some certainty. Do you have any idea where the most punitive changes will be coming Airlines Boeing with tarp in 2008, a lot of the conditions meant banks were unwilling to access them i think congress will have to sort of be careful about demanding absolutely everything they can in return in terms of co pay and buy backs those are big conditions to ask for. No ceo pay increases they ought to be able to structure those similar to what we have seen in the past to ensure private loss sharing. You can attach a lot of ideas are out there. Do this in the form of convertible concerns and so on we are still dealing in some sense to the blow back and the bad memory of the tarp and so forth. No question as these are put together, you will have to have some sort of mechanism to guard against what they are seeing as selfserving behavior. Smart corporates will know that and agree to that. This he will caution that you dont make it so punitive that nobody uses it it doesnt do what is needed right now. Okay. Well thank you greg and krishna. Joe. Thanks, andrew i think we can do this it is better today there is a delay between us it is you it is you. It is my delay. That makes it worse. This is like a bad Conference Call that everybody has been on. We are doing this i think we need to use im actually impressed. We need to go back to the control room to do top line. She can tell us in our ears you raising your hand . The debate. Now i feel like joe. Anyway, if you are just waking up this morning, futures are limit down but i cant believe i have to say this, if we look at etfs, they are limit down which is 5 earlier we were seeing 8, 9, 10 on the etfs. Earlier we were down on the futures but that is worsening. If we give back any of the bounce back, we havent had two up days in how long . I cant remember. The bounces up are smaller than the dow. You remember that i wasnt sure at the end of the day. It was something i was trying to schedule for thursday. February 5 and 6, i was told. Oil prices. I looked at those. Here we are, 25 now im happy. It is such a rapid move is that a fear fact store sign . At least they are willing to hold treasuries. Treasury secretary mnuchin says it is important and crucial to keep the Financial Markets open. He says we may have to move to shorten trading hours at some point. We absolutely believe in keeping the markets open americans have to know they have access to their money. Ive been on the phone with major banks and Stock Exchange everybody wants to keep it open. We may get to the point where they shorten hours americans should know that we are doing everything to make sure they have access to money at their banks and 401 ks and to the money in stocks. I have to say, secretary mnuchin has been a really strong leader and is working with nancy pelosi but when you hear talk of the treasury secretary say dont worry, the banks are going to remain open and well have trading but may have shortened hours. That tells you what may be going on behind the scenes did you take out any cash i did. I think becky did i didnt im still cashless it is in the safe ive got the cash next to the toilet paper it is ridiculous. I didnt take out that much. You wonder if there is going to be a quick thing i did it to make sure the people i no longer have coming to my house that i can give them money to get through these we canceled our maid service but im not going to leave her without pay for some is of these things you just worry about the very shortterm issues where you could see the people you worry about the most not having time or cash to get through on some of these so impressive there did you think in the entire world, im worried about this or that this is the first time every person is worried about the same thing. Unless you are in South Padre Island or florida on spring break. Still people partying at the docs boeing looking for 60 billion in aid the company that struggled before is looking for support from public and private sources including loan guarantees. Now dealing with a plunge in air travel amid the outbreak shares down sharply again this morning. You are looking at that stock down 104. We keep asking what is the value of that company. If the Airline Industry does not get bailed out, what is is boeing a growing concern and how does this all work joseph right in my book, one of the three greatest there is great Tech Companies but it is an american stallwarth it is a security issue. We need it to survive because we need it for our security in a world where it is boeing and airbus, you talk about America First and having some of these facilities in the United States, there may be a genuine reason beyond the business and Economic Issues which are clear and huge of why you need a boeing right 100,000 employees before you get through the supply chain it has been our biggest exporter for years and years and years. Impossible for tous think about going on without a boeing. The question is, do we bail them out or do the chinese bail them out i should tell you having been on the phone all afternoon, thats what people are talk about they are saying if the United States doesnt bail them out, would china because of all the planes they want to buy . Thats a good threat. I thought you wither talking about punitively people on the right are talking punitive measures. This is a political hot button now whether you blame anyone for a virus. People are saying that, saying look, you owe us for this. You crippled our economy the question of the buy backs. That money is in many heaven it is in money heaven what . The executives and maybe some sha shareholders but im sure people just held it that doesnt work right. Buy high, sell low weve seen it so many times. Eastman kodak, general electric. Doing these buy backs. Where is that money . It is gone it is really, really gone we cant do it now seeing the stimulus package and how employees are losing jobs as we speak when it works well and when it makes sense and when there are reasons if you dont have a good use of economically of a huge amount of cash returning nothing and you can reduce the flow there are times when it works and not every buy back is ee call after the last crisis, everything hadtobe tied to stock performance. Buy backs became more important. To boost etfs. And boosting the conversation i like the point that this time, the bailout might be structured differently do it like Warren B

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