Transcripts For CNBC Squawk Alley 20240712 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Squawk Alley July 12, 2024

Mulan. Julia, you have a lot of color on this and i keep thinking back to when you brought bob on our show, and he talked act the challenges of reopening florida and california, but they have seen some change in that narrative. Yes, we just had disney say they going to delay the opening of the park. The decision was made after yesterday, the number of new indicatio indications peaked here in the u. S. Now the government is saying we cant tell you what the plan is going to be at i want to note that companies here in california were raising concerns saying they didnt think it would be necessarily safe to reopen the parks there was 17,000 employees saying they wanted him to reopen on opening the parks but business any really pointedd to the safety issues as a reason why theyre not moving forward, but look at the interview and the perspective on what it would take to reopen they have a long history of being really responsible we were the first group to close initially when covid first hit i think there is a certain amount of trust in the brand and trust in the way we operate. That we will do it responsibly and do it on behalf of our guest and our cast i want to note theyre still on track to opening their small outside of disney. Julia, this is so interesting to me because it is speaking to uncertainty and he knows the operations intimately. Some of this want expected with the reopenings that there would be some rise in testing. And we would have more people who were diagnosed with it but the problem is the mixed signals is seems to me amc first saying were going to open up, there will be no masks required and then they said no masks required disney is opening, and then theyre not. Now theyre saying if youre coming from certain places you have to self quarantine. But it is not clear if the contact tracers are in place to make sure that will happen kentken consistently if youre looking to travel, to maybe go out and spend, you can say i dont know if i can make plans to go to any of the places im not sure if it will be safe or if they will really be open, right . I think youre absolutely right, john. This is the moment that people have been dieing to get out of the house. They were hoping that things would be better and easier to plan and now as you see people are taking a step back you raise a point about movie theaters, will they release mulan on july 24th it was supposed to be the first big movie to be released and now it may not make sense for them to do it or they may not be able to if you have theatered in california and new york still closed we talk about it as whether or not it is a choice for disney to open or close the park, but ultimately it may be the decision of the states and the government instead that is a point that you have made really well this morning on squawk we used to talk about the way in which the company was having to worry about other countries, but now it is down to state level and you say that california and florida are coming at it from opposite directions . Yeah, i mean you could not have two more extreme perspectives here. Governor newsome was quick to shut down with on the other hand the Florida Governor is very quick to have that reopen. We also have the universal parts in orlando that are currently open in a moderated way with capacity limitations great to have julia here another company that these knows well, facebook, there has been talk about ad boycotts chereepi up, but the idea that pricing in the digital ad market is recovering roger joins us this morning, elevation partner. Early google and facebook investor the point at largetize adverg their Campaign Pricing is good according to Third Party Data comparing roas is it really just the hole in the donut . I think stop paid for profit, the name of the boycott, you know, includes roughly a dozen major advertisers. A couple add agencies, fashion retailers like eileen fisher, ben and jerrys, things like that there is no way it will affect the numbers at facebook. No advertiser at facebook is even 1 of the revenue this is about calling attention to the fact that the country right now is overwhelmed with hate speech. And facebook has a unique in amplifying hate speech and disinformation and you know, this is really about civil rights and so when you put organizations like that together to go out to advertisers, theyre saying look, we need to have a conversation about this i think the forecast on the numbers are probably correct in this environment more and more of the company is moving out of line. I think what people have to face up to is that facebooks protective shield, the thing that has kept regulation away is breaking down. It is almost inevitable next year that were going to see very serious informations. The states are digging very deep how do you value that . I dont know the answer to that. I thought i heard john was going topipe in, what i hear you saying, roger, is that if we get more advertisers saying theyre going to boykott throucott throd of july, we know the likelihood of that that is not quite what im saying what im saying here is it wont affect their numbers what i think it will affect is their politics of this i think when the color of change, adl, Common Sense Media get up together and they say im sorry buzz these guys are under mining the civil rights of people in the United States of america and around the world theyre harming our political discourse. Theyre essentially enabling and empowering violence against our citizens, that will have an effect on the p. E. Over time and you know i think that bear thing is about the numbers, but i do believe in the numbers. There is a survey that i think like 58 of people are thinking about getting rid of their facebook account because theyre so angry 58 of people always seem to be talking about it and then they come back or theyre talking about it on facebook, its very you have been a critic of facebook, and i think its interesting you wrote recently about how content modification will not fix the issue that you see here. To me the key passage that you wrote is that the solution is forcongress to implement the Communications Decency act were farmful content and guaranteeing a right to litigate against platforms. It is the amplification of this content that is really the issue. My question to you is how can we know if content was amplified unless we know how the algorithm works, right it has to be compared to other content. And it is a secret sauce so what level of regulation needs to be in place that we can even begin to consider this idea of yours so i think lets keep it simple i would like it to be bianary the other option is to amplify some content versus others my proposal is that yo no longer be protected by section 230 of the Communications Decency act it is a safe harbor for the content posted by third parties. That doesnt change the Business Model directly but it changes the incentives it leaves you open to litigation if your content is harmful and the notion here, this is a relatively small change but it is very targeted it is where the target exists. Amplifying the content that engages us the most. So you have perverse incentives today. And the piece today is really about a notion that we have looked at google and facebook and accepted their notion that theyre just trying and will try harder on moderation it cannot work because their networks are too big there is too big of a time delay. Both of those just take so long, but the worst part is the financial incentives theyre always going to structure things, and that will always under mine, and we have to not pretend this is an issue of good faith. You say we should not give them the benefit of the doubt, but now that we have advertisers starting to take a stand, and the advertisers that we were showing, the ones that are ut purt of this comm committed to this, this is just a pause for the month of july. For kCompanies Like p g saying theyre going to draw a line in the sand and they dont want their content next to racist or offensive content, will we start to see the conversations that i hear right now between the worlds biggesti tizadvertisersn facebook start to really push change this is exactly why the stop hate for Profit Campaign happened they want to encourage that conversation there is so much wonderful about facebook my whole point here is that we should have the good without the bad. And advertisers have, i think, taken the position that there was no way to effect the outcome here that facebook was too big, they didnt have enough influence, but they realize that by aligni aligning but they actually, their voice will be heard more and we can have a conversation. Facebook is more powerful than any individual government. I heard from various sources that facebook is very concerned about the bushback and really taking this seriously and i heard that sheryl and others have been calling brands, trying to work with them, and figure out a compromise do you think well see meaning ful action about the content theyre bulling down or the steps their taking . Not a chance, for 15 years their they have prompted to do better until that stops working, but there is no reason for them to change theyre saying oh, were so story, they do this every time i really respect them. That is where we are that is just the debate. How does it work, does it become whoever has the most followers that can naturally amplify . Once you amplify, havent you shifted the platform from one where hate speech can be amplified by anyone the proposal that i was putting forward was different to the content placed the user is liable as well does it still work . They get to amplify naturally because they have the most followers a poll suggestion, they can pick up smaller ideas if people are interested in what you have to say, that is not amplification, that is having a lot of followers i run into the problem because they take something that has only a something number of followers and they amplify it. It there is no perfect solution, facebook worked well when they only had reverse chronological order. Advertising can have a different targeting if they want to. The user simply describes what they want to buy but at the end of the day, the first step is having the understanding that the current model doesnt work ly concede in a heart beat that all alternative models are likely to be less profitable than this one. If used to be more profitable than today, but they decided that dumping toxic products into the environment was a bad thing and they were not going to permit it. We have to tell you tube, instagram, that you cant just dump toxic stuff in. When you talk about billing a coalition to raise this conversation, how Many Companies need to be on board . And carl, your guess is as good as mine what i know is the conversations are going on today stop hate for profit is an enormous topic, but there is an enormous role in politics. It is extremely open, thumb on the scale, for President Trump they dont seem to be veteraned about everyone that can see them it is all relates to covid disinformation and these things these are topics with different c constituencie constituencies and the state of new york is leading an antitrust case that has, i want to say, 49 states and territories involved the European Union still has their initiatives. So relative to two years ago that is a massive change and it is not partisan, right they are being led by republicans and there is a lot of antitrust on the republican side this is not about politics, it is about what country do we want to live in having a toxic Public Discourse is not good for anyone we will see if some of the progress for your cause is real. Can i make a comment about the market, carl yeah, we have to go but go ahead. The one thing i just think Everybody Needs to Pay Attention to the fact that if were going to reopen the economy, were sitting there with our curves relative to infections going back toward record levels, everyone else is going toward zero and the rest of the world is looking at us like a plague ship, right . If the europeans and canada, china, mexico, they are saying we cant visit them, that will be really bad for the economy. We need to Pay Attention to that i think the Public Officials are well in tune with how were being perceived. We have been talking about facebook and there is a new high price target on the street the analyst behind that call 300 jos oinusn the other side of this break stay with us after this break. You say that customers make their own rules. Lets talk data. Only Xfinity Mobile lets you switch up your wireless data whenever. I accept 5g everybodys talking about it. How do i get it . Everyone gets 5g with our new data options at no extra cost. Thats good. Next item corner offices for everyone. Just have to make more corners in this building. Chad . Your wireless your rules. Only with Xfinity Mobile. Now thats simple easy awesome. Switch and save up to 400 a year on your wireless bill. Plus get 200 off a new Samsung Galaxy s20 ultra. Facebook with a new high price target this week they are saying theyre well positioned to exicapitalize on emerging market. I have to ask about this boycott. When you hear news of a big push like this po pause spending, do you get concerned about that price target how does it influence your outlook . Great question. We dont expect much of an impact on facebook revenues. We have seen this before but keep in mind the bred and butter is small and medium size businesses the add slots will like i will be picked up by the next company in line. Facebook made a big push to try to help small businesses, theyre at so much risk right now. Many of them are waiting to reopen how do you see the risk and the question of the advertising downturn that were seeing as well yeah, i think the key message from our conversations is that the digital add market is recovering and from Companies Like shopify or wayfair, we can take the stem and indications are that facebook and instagram are seeing a crazy yulegradual steay increase where we are, youre at a high for facebook. Youre saying that you see things recovering, we would not be talking about new highs for a stock. Do you think that has to do with a lack of options where investors have if they want to return based on low interest rates, things like that . Why are you expecting the stock to hit new highs in this environment. I think what were seeing is a continuing secular rotation towards digitaltizi tiadvertisi. We think just like in Online Retail that Online Advertising is the market share swell revenues, they will be set at a bar that is ef the same as three to six years ago there is the benefit of consolidating market share to platforms like facebook, google, and other. Talk more about where the markets are located, the valuation, and so forth. Yeah, i think theyre seeing travel, events in local, i think google has a little more exposure i think the other thing is direct exposure. We see study trends in search, but facebook is making a much bigger push into shopping and payments even into gaming so we do see some drivers where we have not seen google be quite as aggressive. I think back to what we were talking about precovid talking about the company shifting from the more public sharing in the news feed to private encrypted information. Are they moving away from the reliance and the news feed ads yes, i think that facebook had to pivot, and where we have seen that, there are two parts of the revenue recovery. One is the businessing and demand and the other is usage, right . People are turning to the core apps and were seeing time spent increase quite profoundly. Andti tizadvertisers respond to. For the short term that instructs facebook in sperms of their focus. But i dont think longer term they have lost focus on messaging and the so calls super app as a way to drive additional growth and usage it is just a matter of priorities how much do facebooks failures matter. I am thinking about facebook watch, gaming, vr on the platform all things they tried and maybe Facebook Gaming is just Getting Started so it could be unfair, but they have tried with varying degrees to expand the platform and they have not worked what do we take from that . That theyre experimental, theyre willing to take risks. The and the way it happens for other Great Technology companies. I dont think facebook is quite a one trick pony, but certainly most success comes from their apps now just a final question about any potential regulatory overhang we just had a myriad of ways they need change on facebook do you see regulation coming and does it impact your price target does it raise any red flags for you . It is positive longer term, in terms of restoring confidence in these platforms i think there is a separation. I think we have to separate them to some extend there is a bipartisan push in terms of regulation and overtight that could cause volatilely in the index. Thank you so much for joining us today thank you when we come back, well keep an eye on these markets. A lot coming our way in the next several hours. A stress test at 4 30. We have been down. We have been up. And currently the dow is almost exactly flat back in a moment toward your bachelors degree. [woman] it doesnt matter how old you are, you can do it. You can finish. [announcer] finish your degree at snhu. Edu. Good morning, im frank holland. The Supreme Court gives the white house a victory allowing the country to quickly deport Asylum Seekers statewide hospitalizations have tripled since memorial day. Macys is cutting 3 of thoughal workforce to reduce costs as it struggles with the effects of covid19. And the hall of fame preseason game between the cowboys and the steelers will be canceled because of the pandemic the enshrinement ceremony will be postponed until next year back over to you music anncr give customers access to precisely what they want, when they need it the most. With adyen, the payments platform that delivers convenience for all. Adyen. Business. Not boundaries. We are in the bottom of the hour now the dow and s p extending their losses we have Barry Banister joining us good

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