Transcripts For CNBC Squawk Alley 20240712 : vimarsana.com

Transcripts For CNBC Squawk Alley 20240712

They say that they are going to begin a phase three trial later this month, but until they have that data, and they havent published any of the early data either, the long term effects and the safety of the vaccine remain unclear ive been talking with experts this morning from the childrens hones hospital of philadelphia and he says that there is no way that they could have any evidence that the vaccine works at this point. And it is based on technology that is not dissimilar from what other Vaccine Developers are working on, essentially using two other harmless viruses to ferry genetic material from the coronavirus to produce a immune response against it. J j is pursuing one vector using that same approach so not a lot known about this and experts are concerned that russia is approving this before they know if the vaccine can really protect people and if there are any safety concerns that would turn up when the vaccine is administered to more people they say in the United States and other places we cannot cut corners and that is why were running these Clinical Trials and thousands of participants to ensure safety and that the vaccines actually protect us against the coronavirus. Meg, thanks for laying that out. Still a lot of question, but investors focusing on the positive today meantime numbers out of boeing just crossing. And were looking at july orders and deliveries from fr boeing and yet another reminder of how weak the commercial Aviation Market is worldwide for the month of july, boeing reports orders of negative 52 planes, all of the cancellations last month the 737 max, the year to date order book negative 836 planes, that means the backlog has now dropped down to 4496 planes boeing did deliver four aircraft last month year to date, it has delivered 74 commercial airplanes, but again, jon fortt, a negative month again for boeing, negative 52 planes on the order book. Phil, thank you rough numbers. The s p meanwhile though approaching an alltime high amid and aiming for its eighth straight day in the green. Joining us now, bob dahl great to have you this morning good morning. What do you make of this . The market certainly seems to be shrugging off the questionable news are we near a top here, how do you position yourself . I would not have believed almost any month this year that you would tell me wed be where we are today that is new alltime high in light of covid the market is obviously marching to the drum of the fed is providing unbelievable liquidi y liquidity, fiscal policy, going to get more in my estimation the old fomo, you know, i dont want to put my money in cash and get zero, bonds are not really attractive, so i guess ill buy some stocks. That is what is powering this thing higher fundamentals as you point out are mixed, but general improving. Look at how much less worse Second Quarter earnings were than expected. So a lot of cross currents here. My view is all these positives, i think we have to raise some questions. Weve come a long way in a short period of time and while i dont see big down side, i think that well go back to the churn that we were in for much of june and much of july are. Side wise, up some day, down some others. Okay, bob, that is a good way of laying it out we dont know a lot, but there are a few things we do know. Chances are well have some elections this year in november. And there is going to be some controversy leading up to that we know how markets can react to that and we know that weve got trillions of dollars potentially in stimulus that is either come or also coming what are the consequences marketwise to those things that we do know so i think the market is assuming that well get the fiscal stimulus. If we dont get it, that will be a disappointment to the market so i think the market will check the box when that happens. The election is a bit of a different story. Markets tend not to pay a lot of attention to the elections until the conventions and were knocking on that door. I think the market to some degree is fearful of a democratic sweep which has a high probability because of taxes. So i think that it would put the market back into the churn process as it watches the polls and debates. No doubt that this recovery in terms of the s p back almost to the old highs, pretty surprising, hard to predict a few months ago but if you look back at the experience after the 2009 market low, we were up 50 by august after a march low. Right now were up about 50 in august from a march low. Obviously that was not at a new alltime my back in 09, however that level of recovery before the economy looked like it was back on its feet maybe is not unprecedented. And my question would be can we use that as a means of handicapping how things go from here in terms of a general up trend with choppiness ahead or do you think that it is too hard to make that call . Mike, im with you. I still think that were in a bull market secularly and i think a new cyclical one started march 23 but bull markets dont go straight up. So the churn is not where you get big double digit percentage declines, it is just backing and filling so the market can catch its breath so fundamentals can catch up we could quibble with the fact that Second Quarter earnings were better than expected, but third and Fourth Quarter earnings estimates hardly moved up at all. But i hear your pattern that you are talking about and of course we were getting fed easing all during that period and now the fed has put the pedal to the medal so quickly, how many more things can they do, if you will. Hey bob, this is deer dwridre do investors just stay put, what is the next catalyst if you think that there is another leg down so i think this is where the action is, not so much about how much do i have in if were in a churn period, it is more about what do i own. While up until the last few weeks, it has all been about big and defensive and growth now were seeing, oh, well, value can have two up days in a row. Small stocks can do a bit better cyclicals can do better. I think you need both in your portfolio. I know that is hedging a bit, so if you force a gun to my head, what do i want to own here to labor day . I want to own the new leadership, the value, the cyclicals. I think there is more to go there. And that is all probably signaling that the economy will be okay. Bob, we just showed a chart of thero rouussell 2000. And i believe it was up about 6 catching up last week. So what are you doing, are you buying more of those small caps . Yeah, down cap. Whatever your mandate is, more down cap i can own mega large and mid i own more mid and less mega than i did a few months ago. And finally, what do you do about bnd bonds if you are playg at home . Most people arent buying individual bonds, probability bond funds but who knows what are in those things these days as ratings are all over the place is there something that substitutes for bonds in a time like this, do you stay in cash, what do you do i put a big question mark on bonds no question about it like if you had told me the stock market was at an alltime high and that ten year treasury would be giving me 60 basis points, i would have said one of your numbers is wrong. So my view is the risk is well see higher yields. Remember we were at 90 basis points a couple months ago i think that were going back to 70, 80, 90, maybe 100 on the ten year before it is over and therefore i dont want a whole lot in treasury. So i want more cooperates than treasuries if tax conditions permit, i want more munis than corporates, but i wasnt to be underweight fixed income hard out there for investors trying to include that bob, thank you all the best. 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Welcome back in just the first seven months of this year, online spending is already pretty much surpassed all of 2019s total. We havent even hit the Holiday Season yet that is according to new data out of the Digital Economy index a and. And good morning, thanks for having me. And great to have you for multiple reasons adobe because of your breadth, you have an excellent take on what is happening in commerce in general. And Digital Commerce specifically so lets start there as some areas of the country begin to reopen, some areas of the world begin to reopen, what kinds of trends are you seeing from this surge in online buying we saw right through the entire pandemic as people recognized that the only way to transact with customers was online, those who already had a commerce presence saw a frid tremendous uptick. And those who didnt put a significant amount of urgency in creating that. The kinds of goods that were trance acted first online had to do with essentials, but i think that you are now starting to see every single good transacted on line and we expect the amount of commerce will exceed all the of 2019 so what has that meant for a bow adobe . If you are trance acting in person, certain things that you need to do the digital version involves your tools so while i imagine some segments of your business are hurt, others are thriving. How is that breaking down . First when you look at all three of our businesses, the creative business, the intention to create at home and everybody who has a story to telling, weve seen a tremendous surge in people wanting to create content at home. And that applies to commerce as well because everything that you want to transact on line of scrimmon express it appropriately being able to do a physical signature and translate that now to digital signatures, we saw tremendous influx in people wanting to do digital suggests but really the core of that business as you know is our digital experience business where we help people with having a presence online, their. C do tm business, what they are doing in their mobile apps, put their merchandise online, and doing predictions with it. So weve seen tail winds across all three of our businesses. And i think initially you saw a little bit of advertising spend that was impacted, but even now, you are starting to see that go up as well so overall were in a very fortunate position in that all three of our businesses are seeing tail winds. Digital media is a big area for you guys so i have to ask you about tiktok it is interesting to see how this social network, this app that so reliant on media has become a big deal socially and a big deal politically what is the minimeaning of wher gee politically and artistica y artistically lets start artistically. Everybody has an inherent desire to tell their story. And what social media has allowed you to do is even if you werent somebody who was wellknown, i think social media is like tiktok, it allows new kinds of influences to be able to create their content and with the algorithms that Companies Like tiktok have to make that front and center for new consumers. So to be able to get your story out to a much broader set of consumers, it used to be restricted with other mediums to either people who are your friends on systems like facebook or instagram, but now that is really getting exploded. And so we just continue to believe that with all the newde people want to create and consume and especially since people are at home, the amount of content that is being created is exploding i think as it relates to the geopolitical, the emphasis of what were hearing is how do you make sure that there is privacy associated with the data and where is that data stored. And so again in that particular context, Adobe Solutions are really being used to make sure that the person who is providing that data owns the data and that it is secure so that is the way we look at it. As it relates to what happens to tiktok, your guess is probably as good as mine good morning, this is deidre. Given what you just outlined the artistic side, the benefit that it brings to creator, i wonder if you would give us your opinion on whether you think that microsoft, if it were to buy tiktok, could continue the momentum that it has seen. Well, i think a lot of these social media, they tend to be are you satisfying a particular consumer need. And the consumer need communicate i think is going to continue to be viral and it will continue to explode. Im not as privy to what those algorithms are, what is the code associated with it and what might happen in a transaction. But i think that this innate desire to communicate i dont think that were seeing the end of that. Mobile devices are not just consumption devices, they are creation devices and i think from the adobe point of view, we look at the member, at styluses, and we think they tell the story and that is what we focus on and i wanted to ask you about adobe corporate footprint. I believe you upped your Square Footage to about a million square feet. Do you have a date for employees to return and how are you thinking about your real estate footprint especially as other Tech Companies scale back their expansion plans or dont renew you leases well, i do think that were all revisiting what it means to be having the kind of footprint that we have and it is probably fair to say that if we had been in this we might have thought differently about how we want the physical footprint that we have but a couple things. Firstly, we are not in any hurry for reentry so were said that our employee safety is first and foremost, until testing is more previous land, until prevalent l continue to make sure that employee saefree safety is firsd foremost when we had smaller site, i think that those will be ones that we actually underinvest in because we dont necessarily need all of these satellite offices. We will continue to have our employees work from locations that they prefer but were not going to have the footprint that we had. However, i think that when it you look at our larger footprints, people like san jose, what were doing in San Francisco and other centers around the world, i for one continue to believe that having a great physical location to have that collaboration that is needed, i would say that projects which are well under way, weve seen tremendous momentum continue. When you are trying to create a new project, you want people around that water cooler, you want that sense of urgency i feel like productivity is impacted a little bit in that. So well continue to have location, they will be different in terms of how they are set up, the structure associated with it, the capacity, but it is all areas that were working through and frankly im just going to learn from what other giants have done in that particular space rather than unnecessarily bring people back to work early in case there are any risks associated with that and that is an important point that we tend tooff look when were in a period like this, talking about everything changing there is some value to physical locations especially if you are kicking off projects tell me about the process to boarding employees you continue to grow you have to manage people. How is that working, are you learning anything in this period that will carry over what we did when the crisis first struck, we said that we would not layoff any employees the company is doing exceedingly well so we reprioritized. And now we have a College Hiring program because we hire the scary smart people and what will be interesting is the entire internship was virtual, so at all times of day and night i was meeting with these interns across the globe as they were apprenticing at adobe. I think what will be interesting is how do you instill in them the values that were so wellknown for when they engage with people, they understand the values of the people and were working hard to figure out how as all of these new people come on board, how do we instill in them the values, evolve the culture bringing their smart ideas to bear, but that is something that i think is ahead of us and as social distancing and the ability to dulactually have peoe in safe locations happens, it is something that were continuing to work on but that is ahead of us. We have a great crop of new hires coming and well focus just as much as we did in the past on assimilating them and making sure that their great ideas benefit adobe. And what is your philosophy on m and a during this period . There are some opportunities out there certainly. Your stocks currency certainly hasnt gotten any cheaper. It is holding up quite well. Were thrilled with the portfolio of what we have. Most companies would be fortunate to have one business that has the tail winds that we have we have three. For us as you have followed us for a lonk tg time, looking at t just the business that we might be interested z iin, but the pee and culture is so critical so we again put a little bit of a pause. Because until we can look at people, understand what the culture is, that is the intellectual property that we have but that is starting to open up so were extremely excited about the port grol that we have we dont think that there are gaps but were always on the look joutd for Great Technology and great people who can complement our offerings. Great perspective from Silicon Valley appreciate you joining us. Thanks for having me. As we head to a break, airlines you s outperforming buo transports, avis budget, kirby among the leaders on the day, all up more than 3 . And also a few new highs among transports, including jb hunt, union pacific. This follows u. P. S. And fedex. Keeping an eye on those. And the nasdaq which after starting in the red has just gone positive on the day welcome back here is your cnbc news update. A majority of american duadults are not confident that the november elections will be conducted in a fair and equal way. 55 say they want all americans to be able to vote by mail republicans are more likely than democ

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