Transcripts For CNBC Closing Bell 20240712 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Closing Bell July 12, 2024

Stephen mnuchin speaking on the phone today regarding stimulus negotiations with a promise to speak again tomorrow and new york city is back in had the coronavirus spotlight. People refuse to wear a mask still to come, coming up on todays show, embattled e. V. Maker nick la with new lows. Well ask the former auto executive what it all means for nikolas pending deal with gm. Plus, well speak with the newly minted president of shopify about the run that stock has been on. Up more than 150 . Well ask about the recent news of rogue employees stealing some Customer Data. Harl Harley Finkelstein will be our guest. We have the latest headlines coming out of washington, d. C. For us start with you, mike a little bit of low volume churning going on today. Maybe a little apprehensive. Kind of Holding Steady ahead of these couple of known potential catalysts, of course the president ial debate and the jobs number. After 4 two day rally, s p 500 year to date, train day, we kind of had that half 1 decline late morning, early afternoon and a few times it just sort of bounced off this kind of 3330 area that is an area that was sort of the lower end of the range going into late last week. So essentially it was a prior point on the chart that folks thought maybe is important to hold you are seeing similar setup i will also point out this happened after that june pullback sharp rebound. Then some chop going side ways maybe wouldnt be terribly surprising to see something similar unfolding in the next few weeks. Of course, we do see a tendency for some back and forth chop take a look at the semiconductors relative to the s p 500. Philadelphia Semiconductor Index on a relative basis to the broad market you see it made a brand new high here on a versus the s p 500 that generally is a positive thing. We havemicron results coming later this afternoon not one of the leaders in the group. But in general, if you have semiconductors outperforming, that is a pretty good kind of ratification of the underpinnings of a rally own a growth and cyclical basis. Well see if that holds true mike, a couple things being cited, cases in new york picking up debate tonight, of course, the jobs number coming later in the week it is some of the factors or just simply do we have a big jump yesterday i think its all ofit mike, see you in just a bit we turn to the latest in it Washington House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Stephen Mnuchin meeting today for a short hour to talk stimulus with another call scheduled for tomorrow we have the latest on those negotiations what do we know . Well, sarah, there are positive signals coming from the white house that there is nothing concrete just yet nancy pelosi is optimistic about the potential for a deal maybe even coming together this week. White house chief of staff mark meadows said he spoke with the treasury secretary and with President Trump. He, too, is hopeful that progress can be made however, if those talks fall through, im told that democrats are willing to vote on their 2 2. 2 trillion proposal and bring it to the floor this week even though they know it wouldnt pass in the senate there are moderate democrats that are pushing nancy pelosi to continue to search for that illusive bipartisan solution they dont want this to turn into just another messaging bill the dean phillips of munn minute said in a statement, lives and livelihoods are at stake and the window of opportunity is closing. Americans are demanding that their congress find some common ground. Democrats are holding their weekly caucus meeting at 9 00 a. M. Tomorrow. That will be a chance for the rank and file lawmakers to assess the status of negotiations for themselves. Back to you. I think what is missing here is really a sense of urgency maybe on both sides. And, yes, the market has taken a step back. Its not a crisis mode like we had last time around and the Economic Data has been pretty decent. Larry kudlow this morning said the v shape recovery is still intact with or without stimulus. I wonder if the jobs report will be a turning point of some sort at least for the republicans because it is a last jobs report before the election. The if its a weak one, i wonder if that will boost the need for stimulus we have seen so many deadlines, sara, come and go the one coming up now with the airline aid running out on september 30th thats not enough to move congress we saw the end of the Unemployment Insurance there is plenty of opportunities for congress to say this is the moment that we need to act we have not done it just yet well see if their own personal time line of getting back to the campaign trail and talking this through. Thank you so much for that. We also following a number of stories surrounding the banks today. Goldman sachs announcing management shuffling of the decks in the latest move under the ceo. Among some of the changes, the firm appointing Stephanie Cohen to corun the Consumer Banking and Wealth Management division she previously was the chief Strategy Officer also seeing tucker york and eric lane and assets of management. Were also watching j. P. Morgan. The bank is set to pay record 920 million fine over manipulation of Precious Metals and treasuries markets to resolve investigations by three federal agencies it revolves around a practice known as spoofing. They flood the market with orders they dont intend to execute. William swinney said in a statement that for nearly a decade a number of j. P. Morgan traders and sales personnel openly disregarded u. S. Law that served to protect against illegal activity in the marketplace. J. P. Morgan president saying in a statement in part, the conduct of the individuals referenced in todays resolutions is unacceptable and theyre no longer with the firm. Four former j. P. Morgan employees charged last year for participating in a racketeering conspiracy in connection with the scheme have pleaded not guilty the trial for them is due to start in april sara, i would say that first in terms of the lack of share price reaction starting to leak last week that they were nearing a settlement and the number of near 1 billion was muted. I think the important thing is they settled and hasnt come with any restrictions on the business practice Going Forward. Of thats why you havent seen a bigger share price reaction for a large fine for this sort of activity they do still have two class action civil suits pending they shouldnt come with restrictions to the business practice and thats, i think, why as big a headline this is and significant fine it is for this past activity, it probably hasnt hit the share price that much i feel like we have to tease a little bit on the fines from banks. This is a big and meaningful one. It seems like its just the cost of doing business right now. This is not nearly as egregious as the wells fargo scam. Maybe thats why it didnt have a bigger reaction. I think a bull jillion is a. Small part of the business, perhaps. It goes up to 2016 of the actions, the bank says that they massively increased compliance functions since then. But anyway, j. P. Morgan down 0. 6 or so today but down more than like 35 year to date. Overall market down abo about. 2 . At least the s p 500 after the break, the big showdown, President Trump and joe biden getting ready to square off in just a few hours time were going to discuss what to watch in the debate and how the election outcome could impact your money stock slices. For as little as 5, now anyone can own companies in the s p 500, even if their shares cost more. At 5 a slice, you could own Ten Companies for 50 instead of paying thousands. All Commission Free online. Schwab stock slices an easy way to start investing or to give the gift of stock ownership. Schwab. Own your tomorrow. Welcome back President Trump and joe bud enare set to go headtohead for their first president ial debate tonight. For more on how the performances could impact the broad market and economy, lets bring in Keith Williams and partner at aiken gump along with john leber, United States managing director very good afternoon to you both. Who polls best on that topic more broadly it depends on which poll youre looking at and which state. Trump generally has the advantage on the economy it dpeets kpooecompetes with a r issues including the coronavirus. Biden has a very large lead over President Trump. There is a mix of other issues in there you could it be caused by outside events many could argue the increase in the deficit, the geopolitical tensions caused by some of the economic policies perhaps offset the gains that came even before the coronavirus. I think it is legitimate for people to question all aspects of the administrations response on coronavirus but i dont think its legitimate that blame the president for the current Economic Situation before the coronavirus came to our shores, our economy was humming along. And the point the president is going to make tonight is that once we get past that, he is much better equipped than joe biden to return us to what i think was a fairly historic period of prosperity john, im curious what youre hearing from the conversations youre having with investors and clients of the group generally the consensus among investors we talk to, i talk to on and off air is that a blue sweep, a blue wave, biden president and democrats take the senate would be net negative for the market because of antibuzz friendly policies, higher wealth taxes, higher Capital Gains taxes, all of that would hurt the market is that what youre hearing . So thats definitely the case that is higher taxes and new regulations, regulations going beyond the level you saw in the obama administration, the health care spending. All that is it bad growth in the long run a lot of our clients are focused on early 2021. They see a much higher chance of a very large fiscal stimulus getting done under joe biden you see the tax increases and so forth clinging. It is possible to increase taxes without it hurting the economy . If so, which taxes should be the focus . Well, i dont think so. I mean, i agree completely what john just said i dont think there is any question that over the four year horizon President Trump is going to be better for Economic Growth dont underestimate the biden bump if you have that blue wave, there is going to be a lot of stimulus thats likely enacted i think, you know, look, not all taxes are created equal. And i dont want to make a generalization about that. But i think the perception that is going to create taxes on business in particular are really going to be the most harmful. I do want to say, i think in some way the worst Case Scenario for the markets is going to be a scenario where biden wins the presidency the republicans hold the senate. You have the scenario where the executive brafrnl is able to move forward with the bank of regulations but then you have the congress who probably doesnt support much stimulus. Actually, i think the gridlock is generally perceived to be quite good for the market if we get it i wanted to, while we have you, get you on the expertise, there is also a feeling that if President Trump loses the election, there is a collective sigh of relief around the world and from u. S. Corporations when it comes to tough trade policy, tariffs and all sorts of antigroe antigrowth measures and threats this administration has done do you disagree with that . I think on trade policy the truth is that the policy is probably going to shift less than people expect after the election i mean, look, the president has been doing on china is really popular among the electorate its not going to be easy for joe biden to turn his back o that he may use slightly different tactics. I think the overall policy trajectory is similar. I would say if youre looking over a longer time horizon, you really do need to deal with the china problem. And so, yeah, some of the uncertainty is bad i think it has led to businesses and clients i work withholding back on investments. But if you dont get the china issue right over a longer time horizon, you know, were going to have a problem. I just do want to respond to your comment i totally take your point about gridlock i think we are in this unique sen a scenario where markets really want stimulus. Having a bud enwhite house and republican congress, we dont get that and then do you have the executive branch continually empowering itself over time no matter who is in power i think youre going to get a ton of regulations in a Biden Administration its a little different than usual. John, do we think that global trade particularly as it relates to the u. S. Makes a big rebound under biden versus trump or not really i mean trump is run as a democrat on trade. And so bidens challenge right now is to get to the left wrf tru of where trump s a lot of the trade restrictions he put in place and the tariffs on china are going to stay in place under president died etrump. This depends on how the chchine respond and what theyre willing to give up and get the current tariffs lowered. We dont really see that happening in 2021. Thank you for joining us. Great to see you both. Thank you. Thank you. We have 41 minutes left in the show we just lower as we stand for each of the major indices by about. 1 for the dow and s p 500 and the nasdaq just fractionally higher now. The up next, home prices jump in july well dig into the latest reading on real estate European Market analysis points to an underappreciated long term opportunity for rh, Restoration Hardware it has been very appreciated, wilfred, on wall street, especially after the last quarter. But clearly, the Analyst Thinks there is way more to go. Yeah, indeed. Up a nice 5 it does feel weird always calling it rh. Were not meant to say Restoration Hardware anymore they technically changed it i know, exactly big fat catalog. Not one i quite understand the name change. Its going well today. The latest read on home prices showed a jump in july. Diana olick has the details. Yeah, after Holding Steady, price gains tookd o off again i july up from a 4. 3 gain in june. That is according to the much washed caseshiller index. The 10 and 20 city composite saw bigger gains in july thanks to strong demand, tight supply and record low mortgage rates. Phoenix, seattle and charlotte reported higher annual gauins in july than june new york, chicago, and San Francisco seeing the smallest gains. Thcht is a three month running average through june other averages show steeper gains in august. Supply continues to shrink and demand holds affordability, of course, is weakening substantially. In a makes it harder for buyers. Its interesting. Even the latest Consumer Confidence data also had a few more pockets of positivity to be more expect to tail off which wasnt the case. And the home data continues as well even when you do get the pace of other economic measures plateauing a little bit. Yeah. Demand for housing is uncredible right now. It is really push ford that dire for people to get bigger hoemdz. Not urban flight but upsizing either to the suburbs or larger homes or larger apartments because of the whole stay at home culture that were at right now. But they apparently are willing to pay anything so far well see how so far that goes on the urban flight, what are the smartest people youre talking to say about how long that is really going to last how much city like new york, new york city is really going to be hurting from this phenomenon you know, the urban flight is contained to new york city and to San Francisco those are the cities that are seeing most of it. It depends on how quickly the economies come back. In d. C. , philadelphia, smaller cities that have larger homes, suburban style homes in the city, there is no urban flight youre just seeing again that upsizing, that demand for the bigger home, perhaps more on the outskirts of the city. Not necessarily the suburbs. Urban flight is really contained to new york city and San Francisco. The rest is upsizing really upsizing. Its yale good point. They are big cities and a lot of people are leaving still ahead, micron due to report earnings after the close today. Its been lagging this year. But haeb s been on a hot streak well preview what to expect from those results in a few moments. Stay with us on closing bell. Thats what my dad does. Good job, michael ok, lindsey now tell the class what your mommy does. My mom has super powers. Its like she can see the future. What . its like she time travels in a rocket ship. Thats cool and then she comes back saying try this or try that. She helps everyone. She helps them feel less worried. Wow mommy, so what is it that you do . Im a financial advisor. She is aig proudly supports all the professionals taking care of our financial futures. A good education takes you many different horizons and that sticked to my mind. So, when 1 a day came out, i said, why not . Why not just utilize that resource. And walmart made that path open for me. Without the 1 a day program, i definitely dont think id be in school right now. Each week for me in school is just an accomplishment. I feel proud every step of the way. Welcome back to closing bell. 32 minutes left of the session all four major indices are n lower. Each the nasdaq had had been positive moments ago but were well off the session lows which for the dow was down 250 points were currently down 17 points time for our daily coronavirus tracker. Global deaths one million. Warning sign flashing as the u. S. Heads into Colder Weather hospitalizations are rising in 34 states week over week with the largest incre

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