Incredible month where you saw stocks continue to climb add that to year to date dow up 7. 3 . The s p up 19. 5 the nasdaq is up a whopping 37 . Lets put that in historic context. The year to date, you were talking about the nas ddaq with the best first months since 1975 held on to gains gave some back in the second past of the year up 30 by the end of the year. If you look at the s p, up 19. 5 . That is the best performance since the beginning of 1997. That year, s p up 28 . It ended up 31 . Adding to gains, mike, throughout the things. You look at this and look back the pattern in history is that markets that are consistently strong with five months up in the s p 500 happens in the context of generally continuing uptrends. It is not a fluke. That being said, it has happened eight times in the last decade it happened 40 since 1949 the dow was up 100 points in the last minute of trading yesterday. A lot of stuff that gets done at month end. In general, the market has answered most of the criticism you mentioned it is unbelievable returns. Thats the point to many people, it is unbelievable nasdaq is up 50 s p up 31 from the low in october. If you look at the history of a nonrecession bear market. That is what it looks like right now. The history is the next year with a 30 gain in the s p we have gotten it. It is better than expected. Earnings are better than expected and Government Intervention which is critical inflation has come down faster than the economy has weakened thats the big picture story on what is happening. Over the course of the last couple months, the strength of the markets broadened out. It is not a handful of stocks driving things all that said, valuations are looking on the rich side from six months ago, the expected s p 500 earnings hasnt changed a lot. It dipped and come back a little bit. The point is people are more confident that those earnings are going to come through. Where are we on forward earnings 30 years in terms of the multiple . Yeah. On the nasdaq, 26 s p is 19. 7. It is expensive, but it is not historically completely out of the realm. It is all about next years results. We are looking at 8 gain with s p earnings we will see if it comes through. The psychological effect is people saying im not going to fight it you have oppenheimer saying we get to 4,900 mike wilson. He sort of capitulated. Is this capitulation . This is capitulation on the upside you can make a mistake on the up eventually if it feeds into overconfidence bull markets need bulls to keep going. It is a more even trade now to say from here and this point on, i think a lot of people are on board with the soft landing scenario a lot of people are on board with the bull market you no longer have the skepticism to burn off to get to the higher price. There has been a lot of money moving in. It can continue lets look at the treasury market 10year treasury is yielding 3. 9 the 2year treasury is 4. 9 . On the squawk planner, a busy morning caterpillar and merck and pfizer and uber reporting we have an interview with the ceo of merck and ubers ceo. We will get reports from Electronic Arts and starbucks and amd. Lets talk about the new x sign on the headquarters formerly known as twitter. That sign officially taken down in San Francisco it has drawn criticism from neighbors and city officials and 24 complaints from the building and Inspections Department the flashing lights make it hard for nearby residents to sleep. I see that if i was across the street and that sign put up without a permit the city spokesperson said the Property Owner would be an assessed fees. There was a bruce wayne bat call it was cool from the markets perspective. He must have had a drone fly by to get a nice shot which was used on twitter. We with have talked about ito days in a row. It is worth the permit fees permit fees are worth the marketing with all of us talking about this stuff and at this point, it is a okay, fine well take it down. Were staying in San Francisco. Well stay here. We love you. I thought was fascinating he has been outspoken about california and San Francisco more particularly. We saw during covid how much he was unhappy and kept saying im going to move more and more operations to texas. I would have thought, frankly, he would eventually move x to texas to consolidate and be in one place. He has freemont. He will always have some travel. If you are trying to have your house physically living next door, which he has in austin, to spacex and tesla faber made an interesting point yesterday. He was talking about how elon sets foot in california, he pays in millions in taxes he tries to get out by midnight. People do that in new york city. Same set up. Track how many days you spend. You dont papery per day. It is like new york which is 183 days. He wants to keep it under that he is trying to stay under that number. Yeah. Presumably. I would, too, if it were millions no place i want to be. It is only costing you millions of dollars a day if he is over the limit. Take him to the next threshold. We have more coming up on squawk box. The ceo of bp is joining us to talk about the Energy Giants quarter. And uber is set to report in the first on cnbc interview with ceo Dara Khosrowshahi. You are watching squawk box and this is cnbc welcome back to squawk box. Bp reporting a drop in the Second Quarter the company boosted dividend by 10 and would repurchase dividends. We welcome in Bernard Looney to the show thank you, andrew a different picture the last time we spoke. We were talking about windwfall tax at the time. The world switches fast. It is interesting to see the change in prices and what it means to profits and how you balance it on the dividend and repurchase side. It was a good quarter, andrew we grew 3 overall we drove production costs down by 9 . We grew other parts of the business as well w we tripled our power into the Ev Charging Network and convenience business at 7 . A lot of growth and resulted in the announcement you have seen today with the confidence of 11. 5 billion buyback which is good following 60 of cash to buybacks also over the last four quarters, andrew, we bought back 9 of the Company Shares we announced a 10 dividend rise as you said. It is about confidence and the business is forperforming well. Bernard, you increased the dividend by 10 , but paying out the same amount which is good to control the capital . Thats right, becky hi to you. We bought back 50 of shares since we started the program 21 months ago as we look back over the last four quarters, 10 higher allows us to increase by 10 and maintain the absolute burden flat it is a good way to manage and return profits to our shareholders the same through buybacks with 60 of cash flow to dividend to shareholders and hence the 1. 5 billion this quarter. Help us with something you probably have seen the critique or criticism and not just bp, but true of shell and other Oil Companies around the pledges made on Carbon Emissions and the like and transition work that you and a number of other Oil Companies have been on and what appears to be a scale back do you think that is fair . Were not scaling back. If anything, were propelling forward. Andrew, our strategy is very simply defined by the phrase and, not or. We must believe in the system. We put 8 billion more in the oil and gas system we grew oil and Gas Production 3 in the first half at same time, not or we accelerate in the Energy Transition in 2019, we spent 3 of capital outside of oil and gas three years later in 2022, that number was up to 30 3 to 30 in three years we are leaning in and in february, we would put 8 billion in the Energy Transition it is an and strategy. We believe that is what the world needs. Tell me if this is wrong. My understanding is there was an original pledge on emissions cut by 35 to 40 lower by the end of the decade of 2030. In february, you switched that target to 20 to 30 the actual numbers in question we would reduce production by 40 . As a result of the concerns of Energy Security in the world and every government in the world pretty much where we work wanting to ensure it has security of supply and we updated to 25 rather than 40 that is true at the same time, we said we would put 8 billion more in hydro carbons, including the United States. We grew production in the onshore u. S. Business by 9 in the first half we brought on in phase two four wells producing 70,000 barrels a day. At the same time, we would put 8 billion in the transition in addition to what we are doing. That is the nexus. Ill blow your mind with the next question. You will be surprised im going to say what im about to say i was having a conversation with an Energy Executive last week who may have convinced me of something. You probably would disagree with what he said he said, andrew, maybe this whole thing is a mistake this idea of pushing Energy Companies to try to reduce the amount they will be emitting clearly what you can do in Carbon Capture is important but they are investing in the new technology shouldnt it be governments and Capital Venture firms with a different profile shouldnt they invest in clean tech and other things and the Energy Companies should be the 23Energy Companies. We mixed the message so much this person was comparing it to the pharmaceutical industry. A long time doing r d and now pharmaceutical Companies Market drugs and have sales people for drugs drugs. We now have a Venture Capital community which supports to build the new drugs and developments and then p when they get to maturity, the Pharmaceutical Company buys it that is a fascinating way to think about all this look, let me tell you what we believe and what i believe here at bp. That is the world needs rapid Energy Transition. I think that is true at the same time, that transition needs to be orderly by orderly, we need to match the supply with the demand with the energy we saw last year, andrew, with a mismatch we lost 3 of the worlds gas supply and prices went up sevenfold. 700 what happens when prices sfrise countries turn to coal line germany and south korea and japan. We must make sure the transition is orderly which means we invest in todays system. As to the transition, we are investing in growth businesses in the transition where we have things and skills and capabilities to add. Let me give you an example e vork Ev Charging Infrastructure we fuel your car that way. Tomorrow, we will se sell electrons 550 Million People live within 20 minutes of a bp site. The use of evs is on the increase from the low base, but on the increase. Of course, we will use the installed assets we have to leverage that growth engine. We sold three times as much power in the first half of the year as we did in the first half of last year the same is true on bioenergy enormous enormous advantage here. We have a large trading business here we build the products next to the refineries which will be cheaper and sell in the 700 airports with every airline in the world we have relationships with we are growing in growth sectors with competitive advanadvantage. Thank you for joining us. We will talk to you soon thank you when we come back, it is jobs week in america we get the latest from Small BusinessEmployment Data from paychex after this break. And Chris Christie will come on ua bsqwkox to talk about his race for the White House Well be right back. Its an entire trading experience. With innovation that lets you customize interfaces, charts and orders to your style of trading. Personalized education to expand your perspective. And a dedicated trade desk of expertlevel support. That will push you to be even better. And just might change how you trade forever. Because once you experience thinkorswim® by Td Ameritrade theres no going back. This is cynthia suarez, cfo of gogo foodco. , an Online Food Delivery service. Business was steady, until. Gogofoodco. Go check it out. Whaatt . overnight, users tripled. Which meant hiring 20 new employees and buying 20 new laptops. So she used her American Express business card, which gives her more membership rewards points on her business purchases. Somebody ordered some laptops . Cynthia suarez. Cfo. Mvp. Built for cynthias business. Built for your business. Amex business. I remember being on aau trips, high school games. My mom would always say, you need to fuel the body and you need salt. Im like, why do i need salt . Like, who is going to do that . She literally would make me rip open a pack of salt, pour it in my hand, and i would, like, lick my hand. Sure enough, i would always be the kid not cramping, i would always be the kid energized, ready to go. Fast forward 20 years and i go from eating salt out of my palm to a drinking lmnt. Announcer squawk ceo call is sponsored by Truist Securities experience expertise and execution. Paychex is out with the employment report for july joining us is john gibson. The paychex ceo. John, you have good news in what you are seeing the example we have been thinking when it comes to the soft landing wage increase is coming down, but that is not impacting jobs market overall what did you find . Thanks, becky great to be with you you know, i feel like im a little bit of a broken record. I have been coming on the show the last year and seeing Wage Inflation moderating and no signs of recession i think that story continues we are seeing wages go down without real job losses and interestingly enough, fed chair powell stated the same thing last week. In july, what we saw for the First Time Since 2021, wage growth fell below 4 and we continue to see a strong Small Business job index we are where we were at the start of january below 4 for the first time barely 3. 95 . That is still implying hotter than inflation than the fed can tolerate no doubt about that the other thing i kept pointing to is what we track is Weekly Earnings growth factor which looks at where that is heading for five consecutive months have been below 4 . We continue to see that number going down and when you also dig under the wage data, becky, there is still something going on in leisure and hospitality. It has been dragging down the index the last three months. That is a supply issue again we are seeing a supply issue Wage Inflation were actually seeing in the index is coming from the leisure and hospitality sector Wage Inflation there was 5 . When i told you about the leading indicator we follow popped to 6. 5 we still have a Labor Participation and labor supply problem particularly in the leisure and hospitality sector you think anything will happen to get more people back into the work force . Well, you know, there are signs of hope. We are starting to see reports that ive read and were seeing it and starting to see women get back in the work force particularly in the prime age. Prime age workers are actually getting back to even higher than prepandemic levels. It is really not keeping up with the 55 plus going down i think on the macro level as we look at the retirement of the baby boom generation, that is something both employers will have to look at and how to create more Flexible Work vie environments to keep people in the work force and Government Officials have to look for ways to attract worker into the active work force. How do you break this down geographically which parts of the country are strongest and weakest . This story has been going on since the start of the pandemic. The south is the strongest it ebbs and flows and continus strong in the south. New york and northeast and west coast continue to be the areas that continue to drag on the index. John, i want to thank you for your time. Becky, great to be with you be well. See you soon. More coming up on squawk box. Caterpillar closed at an alltime high. Look at it 263 we will bring you the results straight ahead plus, we get Quarterly Results from pfizer and merck. We have an exclusive inafter v after view interview with merck ceo coming up. As we head to break, look at the s p 500 winners and losers announcer winners and losers is sponsored by state street global advisers. The biggest ideas inspire new ones. 30 years ago, state street created an etf that inspired the world to invest differently. It still does. What can you do with spy . 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