From the region. That is not what i am hearing from the people. We have seen isis encroach in india as well. Indian officials have been monitoring that carefully trying to garner recruitment and establish some kind of presence there. I think for lawmakers as well as those in the Academic Field the focus is right now on iraq and syria, and north africa, but we should not forget south asia is going to play an enormous role, and it also plays an enormous role in the eschatology, because it looks at the Islamic State the belief. If you look at the hadid, and those are the writings of mohammed, and all one of the things he focuses are the ones on the end times. That is his main focus. Part of the final batter is a per cursor precursor thatll that takes place in south asia. We are not going to get the final battle until the precursor battle actually happens. However that happens, it is definitely in baghdadis plants, and something i think should not be a ignored and an area we should Pay Attention to. To wrap it up, a lot of people think the taliban may never merge with isis, that they are two centric to their own area. I should go you that taste on the investigations i have been conducting an research i have been doing, isis is working day and night to move recruits into their fold. And there is this conception that isis and al qaeda which is true now, are continuously butting heads. What i found to be interesting through the research was that baghdadi is preaching among his group, al qaeda and the Islamic State, we have different ways of achieving things. That does not make us enemies. That is allahs will. So now is the time to look at what we have accomplished and join us. And the message is reaching people in the five top fatah. We see that it has been reaching and people have been joining them. This message is holding true to that. I believe that thered definitely needs to be more focused in the south asia area when it comes to isis. I would be surprised of isis rise in iraq and their ability to take territory from them and us and what we have tried to put in the iraqi and syrian regime. We should have our eyes on Southeast Asia because they could surprise us once again if we are not paying attention. Thank you. [applause] i think it is amazing how we end up being surprised by the growth of crisis and al qaeda groups because we are not paying attention to what they are doing at the local level. I do not to rehash policy. I want to put out differences between what isis is doing and al qaeda believes it is doing, because fundamentally we cannot feet the threats from radical islam without tackling at isis and al qaeda. It does not make sense to defeat out qaeda in al qaeda in iraq and syria. It is doing well in areas where it remains strong. At the same time, we found focusing on al qaeda is leading into 2013 2014, allow for isis to go back and research re surge in iraq. It looks for local insurgencies to educate them, correct them, to enable them to be more than they would be at the local level, and bring together what they see as the muslim world under a unified banner fighting for this. They key difference is al qaeda does not see governments and state building at the immediate level as the priority. We see this in al qaeda documents where leaders have been told do not call your self a. If people called yourself estate people will take away your advantage to provide water, food, keep electricity running. What you should do instead is be effective in areas where you can, provide security when it is not there. Provide water, goods services, a do not call yourself a state because that built expectations, and we are not able to fulfill that now. You saw al qaeda fail at this in yemen, mali, somewhat in somalia, but whenever it tried to replace the state, it failed. It is much more of a longterm vision insurgency. The reverse of that is al qaeda is not directly attacking states day in the way we see isis looking to break the iraqi state. Al qaeda is looking to break the west first. It sees the objective as forcing the United States and other western partners to retreat from the region, and i will argue some degree it has been somewhat successful. Isis has helped that. I think the unwillingness to become engaged in the counterinsurgency fights in north africa and the rest of the middle east region and also growing in south asia has enabled both isis and al qaeda to do well in the past couple years. It is looking to call everyone to islam. When baghdadi declared the caliphate, you saw reaction from the al qaeda leadership from north africa into south asia that said we support an islamic caliphate. We do not support the Current Islamic caliphate is it was not brought about in the right way. They point out that reasons why. But the animosity with isis is not over the fact it is isis. It is over the fact that al qaeda sees isis as doing this the wrong way. Isis is killing other muslims, sunni and doing it at a publicly. Al qaeda will assassinate an official do it offcamera in general. Al qaeda incorrect eating the major exception and al qaeda in iraq being the major exception. The Al Qaeda Network, despite that challenge from isis, have remained cohesive. We have not seen mass leaders effecting from al qaeda. We still have a strong and somewhat resurgent Al Qaeda Network in north africa coming back. Alshabaab remains loyal to al qaeda. There are rumors that our shabbat will move to isis because of finance and it has not been successful in somalia and kenya with what is doing. Aqap is doing quite well in yemen without being a part of isis. There are rumors aqap might go to isis. We saw a leader we pledge the groups leadership. He has put aqap back in the al qaeda pile. Why am i arguing al qaeda is still doing well . It is not most eminent threat to the United States. I think al qaeda is an enduring threat, and isis has raised the bar for intervention in a way it is dangerous long term for us. There is now a level at which al qaeda can operate with relative impunity, because it is not isis. I mentioned the al qaeda islamic system. That group has remained focused on france. What we see is the resurgence of attacks in mali. Mali is not that important to the United States, but aqim has facilitated movement of fighters across the region. That is a major boon to any organization that is trying to enter europe. Theyre looking at libya, and isis has a presence there. It has suffered setbacks in an area which was a Flagship City is held in libya. I would argue one of the challenges isis will face in libya is libya is 99 sunni. Isis has thrived in environments where there is a sectarian differences in the population. Most sunni do not like living under isis role and they would find a softer hand, and al qaeda has a softer hand in this because it is not looking to build up a state, more acceptable. Lets look at east africa. Our shabbat has been said to be on the run. Our shabbat has been said be on the run. It was the defect state. That is nonexistent anymore. It has been a success in that sense. Alshabbab has not been defeated. It is still exploiting the challenges in somalia and also once in kenya and growing in that sense as an insurgency, and will be able to exist as a threat to the United States. Over the july for weekend, all shabbab took back a series of military bases right south of mogadishu. Were looking to see alshabbab resurgent in Southern Somalia as groups try to deal with the new federal government that is finally recognized that has no actual sovereigntyl i will look as that is group that will continue to exist. It will not be able to attack the homeland that we see from isis but it is an enduring threat because it has that east african, horn of africa, that it can access. Finally, at yemen. I have been looking at yemen for 5 1 2 years, and conditions are so different that we saw in 2011. Aqap has not declared an emirate in the south but it is currently governing one of, the port cities in eastern yemen and there is no one fighting it. The al qaeda fighters are there. It is nineday r there. It is known dairy influential in the governance of the city. They stay in the shadows, except for the times we have had successful drone strikes against them. The other place where al qaeda is successful right now in yemen is tapping into the Mass Mobilization of occurring against the president ial connection. For those unaware, there is a major war being fought in yemen between powerful actors as to who controls the state. Hutis being a group that are not representative of all shia in yemen, currently control the capital, and i would say contest the entire state of human. They progress of yemen. They progress quickly southward until you reach the sunni population of yemen. They are not seeing the fight today as sectarian. Al qaeda is working alongside tribesmen facilitating the fight at an integrating themselves into the fight. This is similar to what did so successfully in syria, where now it is going to be near impossible to separate from the syrian opposition. Al qaeda is trying to do that same thing in yemen. Isis is probably strongest and yemen of all the places i mentioned, accepting what it is doing in libya. But iss capability is still limited. It is most its most powerful demonstration of force is a campaign against al[huti targets. It is trying to drive a sectarian war and the way it did in iraq. In many knees the involvement of the air campaign have created the conditions for saudi a arabian and around in proxy wars inside yemen, and it is being cast in sectarian trends and the region. Heres a potential for isis to capitalize on it. I do not think that isis will find the same safe haven it has had in iraq and syria, but there is a potential. So rounding out, i want to underscore that in areas i have mentioned, we have forces fighting al qaeda, and they are not doing well, not wil nning. That is something we look to. This is something that we need to preprepared and fight for, a longterm more. Thank you. [applause] thank you to all the panelists. I think that was an excellent discussion framing the terrorist threat we face and i am glad we have had this discussion because if you look at this on the face of it, you think al qaeda is competing with isis, is itt is good for u. S. Policy. It is feeling them both to be more brutal and there, edition with each other. Unfortunately, this is not playing to our favor at the moment. If there was a Battle Royale between both groups, showing off each other, that would be a benefit. Right now what we see is more of a competition. If you look at the establishment of al qaeda in the indian subcontinent, which was announced last fall, it was an effort to directly compete with the message that was coming from isis. I notice that around 121 aqis were arrested this week. I would like panelists to address inroads in south asia. What sara said is really important. Even the right now, they are competing. The taliban is clearly not happy with isis trying to set up camp in afghanistan. A leader issued a letter telling them to back off. I think crisis realizes it cannot replace the taliban as a major fighting force in afghanistan right now. The taliban is to established in the region. But will they try to make common cause with the taliban . Will we see emerging together of the two . This would be very dangerous for the u. S. If speakers could address that issue, because i think what we heard from dr. Gorka is isis is the graduate level. But does this hold up when youre looking at afghanistan . The taliban has been able to continue to fight there after 14 years. The taliban still has swa in thatay in that region. It will not be that easy for us is to make inroads. If you look at how the idea of peace talks lays into this. On tuesday the taliban engaged in peace talks with the afghan leadership in pakistan. What is their calculation . On the one hand, maybe the taliban would favor peace talks because the Afghan Security forces turned their guns on the isis camps in afghanistan. On the other hand, this could cause greater dissension in the taliban. Those leaders who do not support talks will have more of a reason to defect to isis. We are in a state of flux with regard to isis and the taliban. I would like to hear the panelists comment, what they think, how they see this moving in the future. Mr. Gorka the ladoieies are the experts on the ground. Let me share a macro expecto perspective. Think of soft drinks for the second. For 14 years, al qaeda was that readd can with the white logo. It was cocacola. It dominated the jihadi brand. And then two years ago this little upstart breaks out, and it is a kind of tab cola. Most of you are too young to remember tab cola, but it is a junior cook. In the space of less than two years, it is isis that has become cocacola. That is what we are talking about. Do not focus on individual groups. Focus on who has successfully become the ideologically brand leader, because today it is the Islamic State that dominates the narrative. I hate the narrative, but lets use it. It dominates the international narrative. Today, al qaeda is relegated to being the offbeat coke of cocacola. Now they have the question of can they swallow the bigger pill of seeing their upstart cousin now being the brand leader him and him i going and am i going to say im going to stay outside, or tried to call my weight back . I do not have the social media capabilities, but i will do it anyway. Will they say one day ok, if you cannot beat them, join in. That is the decision we are hearing them make. On the ground there will be competition, but right now the brand leader with that shiny red can is isis. I think you brought up a point. If you look at baghdadi, his relationship with with osama bin laden, he respected him. He exalted him. It was not that he looked at bin laden as a threat to what he was creating. They had disagreements. On how they were going to achieve kind of the same goal. It was really just in the first phase of the war against the west. I mean, Everybody Knows this line. Zarkawi, the reason he never pledged to al qaeda because he was trained to, believe they got to take down the nation state those countries like saudi arabia and shorten who were working diligently with the west , and with israelis, and who have these relationships that were antimuslim, that they were not connected. Abaghdadi with say why do need a passport to travel to egypt if you are a muslim . We should be one state. So then, and you had bin laden who was, ok, this guy i respect him, he and i can work together. For some time until the passing and when the baton was passed, to zawahiri, i think and from what i have been learning, baghdadi was this guy is completely different. We do not need to deal with him. He does not allow us to go out to the shia. They are the heretics. If you look at the writings of faces, they do not even use the word shia. They use the word heretic. Its like they do not even exist. All of their writings already seemed like they won. They talk about this grand future in the sense in the present tense. Not in the past, not any hopeful sense. So when you think about the message that he is delivering inside south asia, he is saying, look, i am not opposed in fact, he respected the taliban. If you do not delve into baghdadi he thought that taliban to the most marvelous job. They stood up against the west, the United States. The u. S. Came in. Osama fled from tora bora. And the taliban never back down not even to pakistan. So he delivered the message that is appealing to them. They do not want to give up their power. I believe likely the possibility of saying ok let us sustain our kingdom here. And then maybe we can work together. In the common purpose being to push the west out, to push nato outcome to reestablish and and merit in afghanistan an emira te in afghanistan and basically go after the peace talks, the pakistani government, which the taliban really has no time for. These peace talks are just to fill in a void, in my opinion for them to buy time. That is my opinion on this. Lisa i would like to open the floor to our audience. If you have a question, please raise your hand. If you could state your name and affiliation and then ask your question. He have somebody right here in the middle. We have somebody right here in the middle. Hi. I am when in defense of christians. My question, you mentioned that the airstrikes are really doing nothing,. So in your opinion, how should the United States look to address the kurds who are the most effective in fighting isis . Mr. Gorka i am impressed with the kurds. Very impressive. They are not going to defeat isis. You hear a lot of there is a lot of clamoring on the hill to make the kurds the silver bullet. I have heard people tell me it is 100 sure that kurds will wipe out isis in nonkurdish territory. That is a fantasy, and under pipe. The kurds will fight to the death on kurdish territory or territory they think is kurdish. They are part of the solution, but not the solution. The only solution is that the various constituent elements of iraq is a be the whoever, have to really why into the idea of iraq buyuy into the id of correct. It is a political challenge. It is an attachment to their country, to the bit they stuck on the edge of the house. So we have to be part of the political solution that convinces them iraq has a future, and i do not think despite the sectarian history and the blood feud or revenge it is not a hard argument to make on one foundation. If you really take emotion out of the equation, there is not one actor in iraq who by themselves can defeat isis. It is a fact. I do not care who you are, whether you are a good sunni, a shia. \ by yourselves you will not defeat faces. And only by coming together and that happen. But it has to happen without troops embedded as advisors, because that is the reason that fell. 900,000 on paper. A couple of thousand guys took mosul. We had no embeds. We were there to shame them. Shame and honor. If there is nobody there to be embarrassed about you running home, you will run home dear your try because that is the entity that has protected you best the last 200 years. We have to sell the concept of the functioning iraq. We have to jettison once and for all i know it is apocryphal lly an arab, but the idea that my enemy is my friend is complete hogwash when it comes to iraq. The idea that karen, because they are killing sunni extremists are our friends, you have to be smoking some become and is not tobacco to believe that. Lisa ok, we have a question over here. Yes. Im with the 21st century wilberforce initiative. I am wondering if the panel c