Internet programs across the world. About iransl talk influence in the region and in the context of ongoing demonstrations, and how iran is working to destabilize iraq. Introduce our distinguished panelists and provide information before turning to them for discussion. Michael. [indiscernible] is this on . Ok good. I want to introduce our analyst. And al is a senior fellow Senior Intelligence office with 28 years of experience. He spent time working on irans influence in iraq. Iranians are interfering. [laughter] politicalassador is a activist. He is a founder of the iraq foundation, a Nonprofit Organization committed to the support and promotion of democracy and human rights. We need technical help. Ok. Is that good . That is better. 2019 november [indiscernible]. Epresenting iraq he is a senior fellow where he focuses on iran and iraq. Resident and a fellow. Before i turn it over to our panelists and i hope the mic is working, i want to make a few remarks. I hope this will friend the discussion today. That toy conviction is counter iranian power, we need to dismantle iranian soft power. With itso understand streams of messaging. Power is a narrative of regional, indigenous resistance against imperialism. It success is due two and lack its success is due to a lack of its [indiscernible] the alternative can be based on a unified measure. This is something that the ambassador will address. Iraqis need to know the level of patients, bit by bit, story by story about every minister and every institution. This is something michael will look at as well. For the last byeweeks, one and 200,000 iraqis across this country more than 200,000 iraqis across this country have been protesting. Over 15,000 wounded. The protesters are angry about corruption, unemployment, and about irans influence. Including secular use and workingclass. I want to say that iraq and lebanon is part of a developing revolt by iran to protect its powers throughout the middle east. Time istime, at this to listen to the protesters, listen to their demands, rather than at the behest of irans minion. How do we do that . What about the limits of iraqi nationalism in this context . Turning it over first to rank, iraqis have affirmed their desire to reverse the growing iranian influence in the country. What are the limits and challenges of the reemergence of iraqi nationalism . It breaks a formula that was artificially influence after the United States invasion. Thank you, patricia, thank you for the institution and hosting the event and hosting me. What is really extraordinary about the protests, it is now called the uprising and some people in iraq call it a revolution. Is in bad debt and in the it is in baghdad and in the south. The thing that is really remarkable is the boldness of and the slogans they are raising and the slogans they are raising against iranian influence. And against the Political Parties, including the malicious, that are deemed to be supported and encouraged by iran. I say this is extraordinary because it is very dangerous for these protesters. Do dont openly rip down the posters of leaders, ripped down the posters of the militia leaders without fearing consequences. There are consequences. Of resentmenteak attempts ofian controlling, and you spoke about soft power, there is in normas economic control of iran there is a normas economic control Enormous Economic control of iran and this is something that has been suppressed for a long time. Ofsaw this in the summer 2018. The sheer, it has reemerged this year, it has reemerged in a more powerful way and much more openly. This is really a turning point that shows true sentiment is. In she it reasons these areas in iraq, this is their way of controlling the question is, this is a popular protest movement, but it is against infringed political interest. Principally, it is exercised by our militias, who in theory and therint, follow the part of iraqi forces and come under control of the commanderinchief, so was the Prime Minister, but in practice though, these malicious are not under such control. They are outside of the armed forces and they behave as a team. We have seen a reaction by these against we have seen a reaction by these malicious. Have been in confrontation. Have torn down posters and torn down the headquarters of the militia parties in a number of cities and so on and these malicious have retaliated. From time to time, we have seen videos that clearly show the militia members, from their own headquarters, allegedly in selfdefense shooting other protesters who are trying to storm those offices, so we really do have a change. That ise open defiance expressed by the protesters. You want to comment on this . I would agree with all of that, but i think it is going to be very difficult for the iraqi political establishment to disengage itself from iranian influence because they are so intertwined. That by a New York Times expose at how deeply, financially they are intertwined. Iraq does not like to spend a lot of money spending money building up networks. I think you always have to keep in the back of your mind, there is some sense that iran is the last resort. Unclesort of the shiite who will come to your rescue if things really get unpleasant. And i think for the , the iraqion community has to become more confident and have Greater National pried national pride. With iran is inevitable because the truth is, you know, if you put the iraqis, shiites, and iranians in the same room, the rainy and will be the iranians will be acting more aggressively, which gets on your nerves. Longterm, iranian but in theof iraqi, short term, i dont see an effective counterforce. Certainly, the United States is not it. It is fair to say, the iranians largely beat the United States in iraq. I dont see that really reversing. Mitt is largely a game among the iranians it is largely a game among the iranians. That is an excellent point that the United States has lost iran in iraq and the iraqis are trying to win it back. What is interesting about that is the lack of a strategy in iraq has not been addressed by iraqis. It is happening now. They willing to push back against the status quo in baghdad with their lives. Like they said does like you said, they are willing to die like you said, they are willing to die for these things, and basically standing in the square and protesting against simple things, internet, and a future prior iraqis want to see less and less of a military america all mistreated and less and less of a diplomat, want to see university professors, democrats, private Sector Investment in iraq and want a future. And this is an opportunity for the United States to get iraq right by doing with the protesters want, and that may be in action or nothing, but what they are asking for right now is International Support and theyre asking for the United States government not to support baghdad, and that is something we have seen. Two weeks ago, the u. S. Will supporting baghdad against the supporters. What is interesting, i got a chance to sit in meetings with strategists in a coalition in parliament,mbers of they were in agreement that this is not the time to engage baghdad. This is not the time to get a lifeline to his government. The is a chance to support protesters by putting a spotlight on it with international media. We know what the protesters want. They Will Anderson cooper in the square. It is simple. They want international media. Their complaint is a should not be ok to kill 326 iraqis in baghdad and have the world not care because there was a benchmark that you can kill 500. He cannot kill iranians without losing iran. But he can kill arabs in other places using iraqi militias. There are groups that were cultivated by the forces to deploy. 20,000 deployed to syria and they have had almost a thousand casualties, and now we are reports that the group are in baghdad. They are in small numbers, but they are there. This is something that is very concerning. While the iraqis are asking for is a but all the iraqis are asking for is a media spotlight, showing that people care. I got back from a conference yesterday and everyone is talking about the protest in iraq. They are seeing the mismanagement of the economies in all three countries. They may not necessarily be against iran, but i would argue that it is because the mismanagement of the economy in iran, baghdad, and lebanon all tie to the main influences in these countries and we know who the main influences are in iran. State of law. Party lobbiedw with another. Talking abouteen the same thing for the last four years. You see it coming and it is here. It is an opportunity now for the by simplyt iraq right doing those two things. What is important, and i talked to an iraqi who knows this well, this gentleman right here, and everyone has blood on their hands in a rock. Iraq andheir hands in iraq is asking for help here. Just before we jump into that, i want to ask a followup question. With regard to the differences, can we talk about the differences between the groups when it comes to nationalism, and what is the risk of regionalism . [indiscernible] if i could backtrack a little 320 was weekse of ago. The recent figures is 450. Havetunately, we do not the statistics, but undoubtedly, the government is. They are not releasing numbers. My estimate is that it is over 450 by now. Number, wethe 320 should always say this was weeks ago because we have to be realistic. In terms of what can one do, i would add that it is not just they want Anderson Cooper at cnn. It is extraordinary that neither the Un Security Council has taken up the issue. In Human Rights Council geneva has not taken up the issue, yet we have had reports of Amnesty International human rights watch, but they are not international bodies. I can tell you, a lot of the protesters are now talking about the need for international, multinational bodies to at least begin a process of accountability of investigation. Because the Iraqi Government isnt doing that. And people are dying every day, and i can tell you that the intensity of violence against the protesters has actually increased just in the last week. I think there was now a push to completely quell the demonstrators. Ant of like removing unmovable object, the unmovable force beginning the protesters, but i think the government now feels they really must crush this and end this and they are willing to go as far as it takes. So, these are things that we have done. Lets talk about nationalism because noel mentioned that earlier. The other thing that is salient in these protests is the that you findl everywhere in these protesters. They want a homeland. It is like a patrimony. It is something that you belong to, that you love them and that you are proud of. And and that you feel loyalty towards. And this is what they have been asking for because they have not had that in the last 16 years. One would argue they have not had that in the last 25 years or so, i may be going back, but now wants a homeland to which they feel a sense of belonging and in which they can feel proud. That call has not divided baghdad. Competent and has been throughout all the protest in all the areas. Are there differences . And what does that look like . There are differences partly because bostrom feels far more deprived than any other province in iraq. Theeconomic situation and services is far worse than it is in baghdad. Bostrom always maintains that this is a double injustice because it provides 90 of iraqs revenue. Problems contributes so get to iraqs budget, they extremely little in terms of Services Goods and services, grievances an added in bostrom, and before the protest, there certainly was a sense of regionalism, and there were calls by the group for similar to theon kurdish region. Authorities rights, the quasiindependent the kurdish region enjoys. The people there, including politicians and professionals, wanted to recreate the same thing in their province. That regionalism was emergent. It hasnt emerged during these protests. Been in ahere, it has sense, the wave of the protest has emerged it. Whether it will reemerge afterwards is not clear, but because there is this unifying of we want a patrimony, it may be a unifier in the long run, and it may actually be the alternative that we were saying that does not exist yet. It may become so. Youe will turn it over to to comment. I want to ask about the role of the sunnis and why they are standing by presumably, the question being, what can be done to get the sunnis into the process and for them to define these events for them . This question is asked a lot, but asked in a different way. While the sunnis protesting . There are several reasons, one of them is when the sunnis protested in 2012 and 2013, the from their government, they shot and killed them, and ofy accused the protesters being a conduit for isis, if you will remember. [indiscernible] they are rolled into one. Just for emphasis. Yes. Ok. The sunnis are guilty until proven innocent. They do not want to come out and be accused again of isis. Oducing ices all of the sunni provinces have just emerged from isis occupation. Their cities and communities have been devastated, not as physical infrastructure, but the communities have been torn therefore,hed, and abilityility their to organize together is not there. I would add a third sector. Protestingare because they consider the government in baghdad to be a shiite government. Which it is. Which it is. Therefore the level of therefore, the level of expectation for their government is higher than the expectation of the sunnis from the shiite government. So, there is an imbalance expectation. The shiite feels like this is our government, but what have they given us . They have robbed us. It is not exactly, and a sense, you were talking about shiite in terms of population. [indiscernible] i just wanted to jump in on that. What is interesting is the shiite protesters, there are two myths here. If he was the Prime Minister, it would not be happening. Is the shiiteng youth are not tied to him. This is not an assad movement. This was to show iraqis this is a guy we could move around. What is interesting to your point about this is the first time and when i have talked to sunnis and kurds in iraq, they dont want to protest because when they took a legal stance in the cook referendum, they were met with military force. This is the shiite youth for the 60 are under the age of 30. They know what it is like to live under these conditions. One thing im hearing and i would like to pose this to the ambassador, is they want a president ial system partly want to be able to elect somebody with the popular vote in charge, and they dont believe the Prime Minister necessarily needs to be a shiite Prime Minister. Those are major changes. When i talked to the sunnis and kurds, they are sitting on the sidelines to see how much power the movement has. It can be sustained and can become an iraqi movement. They believe that iraqi should be free and those are big statements. The sunnis and the kurds will be hesitant to jump on board until the Human Rights Council and other International Organizations are in there. Opportunity for International Communities to take iraq away from iran finally. We dont have a coherent policy, but the iraqis may have one. Im skeptical of anything like that is going to happen in the short term. I mean, iraq is a deeply fractured place. I mean, i have the greatest sympathy for the folks down south. There are places in southern iraq where afghanistan looks a lot better. So, it is a very, very bad situation. That is the type of situation iraq can easily exploit. The whole political establishment and baghdad in baghdad is profoundly intertwined with iran. We certainly did not help by the way we conducted ourselves after we withdrew. So, im skeptical that the iranians will be disengaged anytime soon by an iraqi nationalist movement, although i think it is a very good sign, it is just one has to have patience here. Developthis is going to in aly and probably not very satisfying way. The uranium and their allies have already the iranians and their allies have demonstrated they are willing to use force. There is no factor on the other site capable of resisting that. So, i think we are going to have to wait this out and there are things people can do on the edges, and i think certainly, soft power loses when it comes headtohead with hard power. There are things that can be , but it is difficult for the United States to do this because of their rhetoric so far. For example, we tend to talk, when we talk about the middle east, we talk about iraq, iran, lebanon, and we tend to put the emphasis on economics, and that is completely wrong. I think economics and political factors are deeply intertwined and if you are going up and now, were looking at another big call the what i will political reorientation of the potencyegion, and the representative of the government and democracy. Those words are very difficult to articulate in the west, particularly in the United States where democracy promotions are out of fashion and one is exhausted by the middle east. But i think a serious mistake, and i would argue with what you are seeing across the region and has a particular shiite dimension to it, so im skeptical that we rhetorically are going to get this right. That doesnt mean we cannot do certain things that can be. Ighly helpful the hardest issue for me to deal with anything on iraq is what coercive measures are within the american toolbox that would be helpful . There are not many. I suppose sanctions would be one of them, but you would have to have that argument. There are a lot of things we can do. Your point on patients. This is on inpatient response by the iraqis. They are tired of this definitely. They are finally taking this into their own hands. I believe there is momentum behind this. I believe this can actually work. Iraqis are skeptical of what d. C. Will do, and because of that, they are leading the way on this. As we learned in iraq, we use you have to look at the problems throu