Today we will talk about irans influence in the region, and in iraq in particular, in the context of ongoing demonstrations, and how iran is working to destabilize iraq, as well as the evolution of u. S. Foreign policy toward the Iraqi Government. First i will introduced our distinct panelist and ask that they provide some overarching remarks, before turning it to them for any directed discussion. So, first to introduce our panelists. Michael, who we all know, is a former Intelligence Officer with over 28 years of experience working on security, terrorism, countries urgency and politics in the middle east counterinsurgency and other issues in the middle east. He spent considerable time working on malign iranian influence in iraq as an advisor embedded in Prime Minister malikis office. Feedback] the iranians are interfering microphone. [laughter] the next guest is a political activist. He is a founder of the iraq foundation, a Nonprofit Organization committed to the support and promotion of democracy, human rights help. We need technical [microphone feedback] patricia is that good . That is better. 2003cia from november of to march, 2005, she represented in before the u. S. Government as iraqs chief emissary to the u. S. Guest is a senior fellow, where he focuses on iran and iraq. He was previously a resident fellow at the American Enterprise institute and the director of the middle east initiative project. Before i turn it over to our panelists, and i hope the microphone is working, i wanted to make a few introductory remarks that hopefully will help frame the discussion today. First, my conviction is that to counter iranian hard power, we have to dismantle iranian soft power. For this, we need to understand its multiple and contradictory streams of messaging. Irans self power is a narrative of regional, indigenous resistance against imperialist design in iraq. Its success is largely due to the lack of a coherent alternative that exposes its contradictions and reveals its character. The alternative can be based on the unified national identity, and this is something that the ambassador will address. The iraqis need to know the nce bit by bit, story by story about every minister and every institution. This is something michael will look at as well. For the last five weeks, more than 200,000 iraqis across this the country have been protesting on any given day. Over 320, by the last count i have seen, have been killed, and over 15,000 wounded. The protesters are angry about corruption, unemployment, and also about irans influence. They include idealistic secular youth, and workingclass as well as shia muslims, mainly from the south. I want to suggest that iraq along with lebanon, is part of the developing revolt against efforts by iran to project its power throughout the middle east. It is time to listen to the protesters, to listen to what they want, to support their demands for a new social contract, developed i and four iraqis, rather than at the behest of irans dominion. Theeveloped by and for iraqis, rather than at the behest of irans dominion. How do we do that . What about the limits of iraqi nationalism in this context . Turning it over first to rank, iraqis have affirmed their desire to reverse the growing iranian influence in the country. What are the limits and prospects and challenges of the reemergence of iraqi nationalism . Can it break the formula that was artificially imposed after the u. S. Invasion and enshrined the system of dividing power across ethnic, sectarian and religious lines . Thank you, patricia. Thank you to the Hudson Institute for hosting this event and hosting me. Extraordinary about the protests, now called the uprising, some people in iraq call it a popular revolution is, first of all, it is in baghdad and in the south, which is predominantly shia areas. And the thing that is really boldness ofs the the protesters in the slogans that they are raising against iranian influence. And against the political ,arties including the militias that are deemed to be supported and encouraged by iran. I say this is extraordinary, because it is actually very dangerous for these protesters. You dont open the rip down the khamenei,of how of shia militia leaders without fearing the consequences. There are consequences. And this outbreak of resentment against iranian attempts at control, including, by the way, you spoke about soft power, there is Enormous Economic control of iran and particularly in baghdad and the southern region. This is something that has been suppressed for a very long time. Asra in the summer of 2018, but this year, it has reemerged in a much more powerful way, much more explicitly and much more openly. This is really a turning point that shows what true sentiment is in the shia regions of iraq, abuse of the iranian attempts visavis a ringing attempts at controlling them. Is, this is a popular protest movement, but it hits against entrenched political interests that are iran, and principally byerestes that are exercised who in theory, are part of the Iraqi Armed Forces and come under the control of the commanderinchief, who is the Prime Minister. In practice, though, these are not under his control. They are outside of the armed forces and they behave as a team. We has seen a reaction by them against the armed forces. The two have been in confrontation. No question. Because the protesters have torn down their posters, they have also burned and on the headquarters of the shia militia of cities,a number and of course, the militias have retaliated. Time after time we see videos that clearly show that militia owners, from their headquarters, allegedly in selfdefense, are shooting other protesters who are trying to storm those offices. So we really do have a change. The change is the open defiance that is expressed by the protesters. Patricia do either of you want to comment on this . I would agree with all of that, but i think it is going to be very difficult for the iraqi political establishment to disengage itself from iranian influence because it is so intertwined. It is no secret to say, and i by thehat was hinted at New York Timesintercept expose, how deeply they are financially intertwined. Iraq does not like to spend a up of money in building networks, but it does spend money. You can buy a lot in iraq. I think you always have to keep in the back of your mind, there is some sense that iran is the last resort. It is sort of the shiite uncle who will come to your rescue if things really get unpleasant. End i think, for the resuscitation, the Iraqi Community have to become more confident, they have to develop Greater National pride. I think that is inevitable, as they do that, then tension with iran is inevitable. Because the truth is, if you put iraqi shia and iranians in the same room, within a short period of time, that iranians will be. Ng it really does get on your nerves. Is against the longterm establishment of iranian domination, but in the short term, i dont really see an effective countervailing force. Certainly, the United States is not it. It is fair to say, the iranians largely beat the United States in iraq. I dont see that really reversing. I think this is largely a game among the iraqis and between the iraqis and the iranians. Point. Hat i think that is an excellent point, that the United States has lost to iran in iraq, and the iraqis are actually trying to win it back. With it back for the iraqis. What is interesting about that is the lack of the u. S. Counter strategy in iraq is now being addressed by iraqis. They are willing to push back against the status quo in baghdad with their lives. Like you said, they are willing to die for these things. There are ramifications for burning down the iranian headquarters,itia and basically standing in Tahrir Square and protesting against simple things water, internet, and basically, a future. Iraqis want to see less and less less ofitary, less and diplomat. They want to see university professors, technocrats, private Sector Investment in iraq. They want a future. And this is an opportunity for the United States to get iraq right by doing what the protesters want. That may be in action, that may be nothing, but what theyre asking for right now is international support, and they are asking for the United States government not to support baghdad. Two weeks ago, the u. S. Will supporting baghdad against the supporters. Now, the u. S. Is in. What is interesting, i got a chance to sit in meetings with the counterisis strategists in a counterIsis Coalition in d. C. , and members of parliament, members of the counter isis strategy were in agreement. This is not the time to engage in baghdad, to the government. This is a time to support the protesters. How do you do that . You put a spotlight on it in international media. We know what the protesters want. What i hear is that they want Anderson Cooper in ted cruz square. Ahrir their complaint is a should not be ok to kill 326 iraqis in baghdad and have the world not care. Because there was a benchmark in syria that you could kill 500. He cannot kill iranians without losing iran. Kill persiansot in iran, but he can kill arabs in other places using iraqi shia militias. Some reports that there is another group now in iraq. They are the Afghan Militia that were cultivated by the quds force to deploy. Up to 20,000 deployed to syria. They have almost 8000 in casualties. Now we are hearing reports that they are in baghdad. It is small numbers. But the thing is, they are there. This is something that is very concerning. All the iraqis are asking for is a media spotlight, for the International Community to care. Recent travels to the region i just got back from the security conference in bahrain yesterday, and everyone is talking about the protest in iraq, lebanon, and iran, and they are seeing the mismanagement of economies in all three countries. It may not necessarily be against iran, but i would argue that it is, because the mismanagement of the economy in iran, in baghdad, and in lebanon, are all tied to the main influences in those countries. We know the influence we know who the influence our in iran. And in iraq, it is the coalition party. Party, led by suleianiso is so lam guy. You talk about these things because you see it coming and it is here. It is an opportunity now for the u. S. To get iraq right by simply doing just two things. What is important here i talked to an iraqi who knows this well, this gentleman right here, everybody has blood on their hands in iraq. But the iraqis are asking for the americans to help, not their own government. And there is an opportunity to hear. By tricia we will get into a lot more detail. Before that, i want to ask a followup question in particular with regard to the differences. Can we talk about the differences between baghdad and basra when it comes to nationalism, and what is the risk of regionalism . This a dynamic that first of all, if i could backtrack a little bit, the figure of 320 was weeks ago. Of 450. E recent figures unfortunately, we dont have anybody keeping track. Undoubtedly, the government is, the ministry of health and so on, they are not releasing them. My estimate is that it is over 450 by now. The 300 20 number, we should always say, this was weeks ago. One has to be realistic. Do, ims of what can one would add something, it is not just that they want anderson , at cnn. It is extraordinary that neither the Un Security Council has taken up the issue. The Human Rights Council in geneva has not taken up the issue, yet we have had reports of Amnesty International human and human rights watch, but they are not international bodies. I can tell you, a lot of the protesters are now talking about the need for international, multinational bodies to at least begin a process of accountability of investigation. Because certainly, the Iraqi Government has not been doing that. And people are dying every day. Ofan tell you, the intensity violence against protesters has actually increased just in the last week. I think there is now a push to ell theely qu demonstrators. Sort of like the irresistible in movableng the object. The Irresistible Force being the protesters and the object being the government. I think the government now feels that they really must crush this d this, and they are willing to go as far as it takes. These are things that can be done. Lets talk a bit about the nationalism, because i know noel mentioned that, and patricia, you mentioned that earlier. The other thing that is really salient in these protests is the ubiquitous call that you find everywhere in these protesters. Protests, in arabic they say [indiscernible] means, we want homeland. It is like a patrimony. It is almost like the french atrie. Something that you love, that you feel loyalty towards, that you are proud of. This is what they have been asking for because they have not had that in the last 16 years. One would argue they have not had that in the last 25 years or so and even going back. Now, the iraqis want a moment to which they feel a sense of longing and of which he can feel proud. That call, by the way, has not divided baghdad from basra. It has been constant, it has been throughout all the protest in all the areas. Are there differences between but that and buster between baghdad and basra, and what does that look like . There are differences, rightly because basra feels far more deprived than any other province in iraq. The Economic Situation and the situation of services is far worse than it is in baghdad. And yet, basra always maintains that this is a double injustice because it and the problems contributes so much to iraqs budget, they get extremely little in terms of Services Goods and services, so there is an added grievance in basra, and before the protest, there certainly was a sense of regionalism, and there were calls by the group for creating a region similar to the kurdish region. With all the rights, authorities, the quasiindependent the kurdish region enjoys. The people there, including politicians and professionals, wanted to recreate the same thing in their province. That regionalism was emergent. It hasnt emerged during these protests. If it is there, it has been in a sense, the wave of the protest has emerged it. Whether it will reemerge afterwards is not clear, but because there is this unifying call, demand of we want a patrimony, it may be a unifier in the long run, and it may actually be the alternative that we were saying that does not exist yet. It may become so. We will turn it over to you to comment. I want to ask about the role of the sunnis and why they are standing by presumably, the question being, what can be done to get the sunnis into the process and for them to define these events for them . This question is asked a lot, but asked in a different way. Why are the sunnis protesting . There are several reasons, one of them is when the sunnis protested in 2012 and 2013, the backlash from their government, they shot and killed them, and they accused the protesters of being a conduit for isis, if you will remember. They are rolled into one. Just for emphasis. Yes. Ok. The sunnis are guilty until proven innocent. They do not want to come out and be accused again of reintroducing isis. All of the sunni provinces have just emerged from isis occupation. Their cities and communities have been devastated, not as physical infrastructure, but the communities have been torn apart, crushed, and therefore, their ability to organize together is not there. I would add a third sector. The shiite are protesting because they consider the government in baghdad to be a shiite government. Which it is. Which it is. Therefore, the level of expectation for their government is higher than the expectation of the sunnis from the shiite government. So, there is an imbalance expectation. The shiite feels like this is our government, but what have they given us . They have robbed us. It is not exactly, and a sense, you were talking about shiite in terms of population. I just wanted to jump in on that. What is interesting is the shiite protesters, there are two myths here. If he was the Prime Minister, it would not be happening. The second thing is the shiite youth are not tied to him. This is not an assad movement. This was to show iraqis this is a guy we could move around. What is interesting to your point about this is the first time and when i have talked to sunnis and kurds in iraq, they dont want to protest because when they took a legal stance in the cook referendum, they were met with military force. This is the shiite youth for the first time, 68 60 are under the age of 30. They know what it is like to live under these conditions. One thing im hearing and i would like to pose this to the ambassador, is they want a president ial system partly want to be able to elect somebody with the popular vote in charge, and they dont believe the Prime Minister necessarily needs to be a shiite Prime Minister. Those are major changes. When i talked to the sunnis and kurds, they are sitting on the sidelines to see how much power the movement has. It can be sustained and can become an iraqi movement. They believe that iraqi should be free and those are big statements. The sunnis and the kurds will be hesitant to jump on board until the Human Rights Council and other International Organizations are in there. I think it is an opportunity for International Communities to take iraq away from iran finally. We dont have a coherent policy, but the iraqis may have one. Im skeptical of anything like that is going to happen in the short term. I mean, iraq is a deeply fractured place. I mean, i have the greatest sympathy for the folks down south. There are places in southern iraq where afgha