Welcome to new america. Thank you for coming out in the what the Weather Forecast has called a wintry mix. Thank you for cspan for covering this. And welcome to the cspan viewers. Im going to introduce our moderator, sharon burke who is the Senior Advisor to the International Security program. She runs the resource security program. Shes a Longtime Department of defense most recent position was assistant secretary of defense for energy and security. Ill go to sharon now. Thank you. Sharon thank you very much. Apparently, you realize its snowing. So we thank you for braving the weather for joining us together for a very important situation and a fastmoving situation for sure. I want to start by acknowledging something that we just did with peter. Peter, of course has a new book out that you should all read. And when we were here talking about his book just about two weeks ago, i asked peter, i said you know, youre writing about a president and a National Security team before the story is over. Were still in the middle of the story. So whats the next chapter . [laughter] so you see where this is going, right . He said this president has not actually had a genuine Foreign Policy crisis yes. Yet. We dont know who he is, who his team is and what their capabilities are. So make sure you ask peter on his projections on the market and Everything Else out the door. So here we are. I would encourage you to trade detailed biographies of our panel because we would be here all afternoon going through their qualifications. But what i want you to know about these three people is that not only are they the top scholars in the country on iraq and ryan, foreign policies and International Law. So theyre practitioners. They know the information and how hard it is to make policy and implement options. So were very lucky to have them here with us. What im going to do is let each of them give an opening salvo. If youll forgive the term about the situation. Were going to start with doug galavan who has spent a great deal in iraq as recently as september and can give us unique and interesting and deep insights about whats happening in iraq, whats going to happen in iraq. And then after that, were going to actually jump over to dr. Nassar. Hes going to talk about iran. Hes an expert for all kinds of reasons and as a author and a practicer in. I want to be clear that we dont need to talk about who qassemsome manny is for this qassem soleimani. But we need to start with a setting. We will talk with the broader implications for policy and law. So with that, doug, would you start us off and give us both as a soldier and now a civilian you have unique insights about iraq and about what this means. Doug sure. It is very muching if before here. Er want to start with a story about how we got here. I want to be very modest and say this is a story. My story is very going to be very iraqcentric. There is a very u. S. Story. Mines going to be iraqcentric. Im also very modest about it because one there are more people who know more about it than i. Do but also because things are shifting so quickly that its is sometimes very difficult to know how much of the things that youve really understood and leaned on and saw as solid bases upon which to do analysis are no longer true and theyre starting to shift underneath us particularly in this ree job. I think this story, this particular chapter of the story, obviously, we could go way, way back in time in the middle east. This starts on september 27th of last year when Lieutenant General saudi is fired by the Iraqi Government and is moved from his position as the Deputy Commander and the defacto operational commander of iraqs Counterterrorism Forces and is moved to ministry of defense this served as a catalyst for grievances that have been held by the iraqi population and primarily iraqis young people or a very long time. Iraqi youth were tired of the ethnic spoil system. They were tired of a government that didnt produce, that had handy capped their handicapped their economy despite having huge oil reserves. This symbol of removing this extremely popular general who had symbolized this liberation of iraq from isis was the last straw for them and they went to the streets. Now, at first, it was exactly who would expect, it was the civil society, the entrepreneurs, kind of the upper middleclass of iraq probably disproportionately english speaking. Ut it quickly metastasized especially after the government started killing them on the streets both with bullets and with the tear gas can nissnisters. And you had the young men from iraqs underclass coming out to join the proest. The and they took a break for their religious holiday and why they were on the break, they watched the lebanon protests. And they said these protests look a lot better if there were women involved. A few days after they were scheduled to restart the protest on october 25th, you could see the messages on whats app and twitter. My sisters, we need you. You need to come out. When the free throws started back out on october 25th, there were women everywhere. They became the symbols for this. They were drabed in iraqi flags [laughter] i said symbol. I draped in iraqi flags an this quickly became a very threat to the regime despite the fact that the regime is killing these protestors, 450 have died in the official count the number is probably higher than that its for those of us who are used to thinking about iraq in terms of sunni, shiah, kurds, whats important to say is that these programs were not sectarian at all. These warns wars were primarily an iraqishiah government. It looked very similar to our 1960s. The children coming out to protest what they see as the failings of their fathers and grandfathers in terms of how society should operate around how it should look like. On september 30th, the Prime Minister finally resigns under the weight of all these protests. This is an important detail. This is why theres not an official government in iraq right now. Theres a caretaker government because the Prime Minister resigned on november 30th. Everyone knows there will be a new Prime Minister. And as part of this agreement there are will be new elections held wham theyre talking about is appointing a new Prime Minister who is going oversee the next year and how the elections are going to be set up. This is obviously a very big deal. And who sets the grounds for the election personnel or policy, this matters. So several flames floated. They come back. One can celt settle on one. Finally fattah nominates the bazrah governor. A man named assad aladani. He had been the president of a bank through which they funneled a lot of money. So he is wildly seen fairly or unfairly as the iranian candidate tonight. 26th of the december, the president refuses to nominate him. Nominally on constitutional grounds, he finds that constitutional threat but really this is political. He realizes the americans are against this. Nsha is against this. The protestors are against this. We can stand up against iran. Iran at this moment realizes its been check mating. The chessboard is in front of us, and they can see that three moves down the road theyre in a bad place. So the iranians start thinking. This game is not to our favor. We cant tip over the board. Everyone will know that we did it. We need the americans to tip over the board. So on december 27th, they shell a u. S. Base, our red line on this is extremely well communicated. No one is under any illusion what will happen. And that then begins the tit for tat for which we are all very, very aware. I think my point at least in this telling of the story and this narrative is that iranians wanted us to do. This this is all about iraqi politics. Hey realized they lost the fight for baghdad. They could not stand that, so they had to overturn it. A couple of points followed. Since then, the United States has largely mishandled both the events and the aftermath. There are two third rails in iraqi politics, things that, you know, in the modern parlance just trigger them. Thats sovereignty and thats sanctions. For obvious reasons they are deeply deeply touchy about National Sovereignty. Our occupation last decade, the british before that, the ottomans before that, as a natural culture deeply deeply sovereignty about their sovereignty. My experience is that iraqis will choose overpbity over otherwise selfinterest almost every time. Its simply in their national character. And the second is sanctions thasmse lived under them for 13 years. It decimated iraq, its institutions, the educational system. Many people died as a secondary result of sanctions. They are deeply deeply touchy about the subject. So to have that floated is not erribly helpful. Sharon by the president if youre not tracking that. Doug thank you. We know the Iraqi Government has voted to reject the u. S. Forces from iraq. The legality of this this is not entirely clear. It is not clear that there was a quo flom the parliament. If there was a quo roam its not clear if that vote was binding. And because the Prime Minister san interim Prime Minister, its not clear, he has the authority and frankly the iraqi constitution so vague and so poorly word that there probably isnt a firm constitutional answer to these questions. And so frankly other side can, you know, sides can claim that they are legitimate or not. Were there to be a u. S. Withdrawal, theres no way to characterize it other than a major iranian victory. What is happening is far yond the yy rainians expectations. Were now the point were not even talking about that were talk about desperately trying to sal stradge american presence shows just how much we have flost this round. But, i want to circle back to the protestors. Thats what we need be focused on. I think thats the most under told story. These protestors who are out there who are demanding the simple things that everyone expects, a reasonable government, a lack of corruption, basic services, to have a normal life. Theyre still there even if the United States loses on this round. And i think if the United States lose, the protestors ose. Theres still hope in iraq. Want to talk about abumadi muhandas. Ill defer that as a question. Muhandas was a singular figure. Hes singular because hes bigger than any institution. Qassem he had an entire institution behind him. Muhandas was out side of institutions. But he came in when he needed them. But he was the figure who could hold together the entirety of Popular Mobilization force. So if youre a war hawk, the good news is you killed the head of the hashed. Youve totally disrupted their command and control if youre hoping to restore some semblance of the status quo. The bad news is you removed the head and control of the hashe. Yn that theres another figure who has the status who is respected and feared that he could be a gaw rantor of a deal that, ok. No, no, were not going to strike americans anymore. Muhandas could hold that deal. Im not sure theres another character who can guarantee that deal. Ill stop there. Sharon lets hand you this chessboard. How does the chez board look to the iranians . In some ways this is a watershed moment for the middle east and if tustiran regulations. Theres no way to under emphasize how significant it is. And just sort of going babb. The beginning point is when the United States left a nuclear deal some of looking at it from irans perspective, they did reluctantly trust United States in a deal in. Their view in tirart. As they gave up the most important strategic weapon which is what they negotiated over which was their Nuclear Capability in which they had spent lots of money. There wasnt much economic benefit from it, but there was hope. I think that is right. Sometimes we forget about the people that to them this was a oment of hope. He puts draconian economic sanctions in iran. View, it has s nothing to do with the nuclear deal. That this was about regime change. Shatter the countrys economy youre essentially forcing it to be toppled. And when the protest happened in iran recently, and this is the line of the iranian sort of Security Forces is that yes, most of the protestors were unhappy. But about 2,000, 3,000 activists that they believe to have been sent to iran to push things over that in fact, their maximum pressure strategy was a twopunch process. One punch was economic pressure. People get unhappy. And then youiness that gait pry rieyots an protests and the regime would fafment then come september of this year where president macron came very close to getting the iranian president and the american president a rule and the condition the iranian president said, if im going to meet with you, i need you beforehand to lift some sanctions or at least sign a letter in which you flooms if the meeting is successful that you would lift those sanctions. And President Trump refused to do that. At one point apparently he said hes willing to dom the meeting with an executive order in his pocket. After the meeting he would sign it. And the iranian president said no he really is not after a meeting. This is all about regime change. Iranians also calculated that the first dwhreer the nuclear deal was removed, they didnt do much about it. They sat down. They let the europeans try to come up with some kind of a solution. The year ended. President trump doubled down. He said, im not going to take irans force to zero, and nobody can do any business with iran. And the iranians concluded that they actually have to push back because trump thinks his policy is too easy and its too costfree. And therefore thats when they began hitting tankers and they shot down an american drone and they attacked the facility. They had two messages in this. One is that were crazier than you. If you think that were youre going slap us under and youre going to go under the table, youve got to be prepared that we may actually fight. They think theyre at war because trump took a second look at proceeding with the confrontation. The second is they wanted to technological capabilities. Hitting aramco, the exact places and nowhere else was for them to say do not think this is the iranian navy of 1987. Which was snunk a single day. They saw it as deterrence. But you know, in their view, and yes, you know, iraq was very significant and their own dough mix domestic policy s under pressure and significant. The u. S. Does not suffer at all. The president translating leverage to negotiations, the iranians suffer. They cannot wait until the 2020 election unless we give them something. The only way to get his attention is to do something, escalating further. Iraq may have had double benefits. But you knew they were going to do something. And particularly the faction in iran that is arguing that look, this isnt working. Negotiations arent working. We have to do something was gaining ground inside. And also iran is going to parliamentary elections in february and president ial elections in june. There is a lot riding on this, and an opportunity for hardliners. On the u. S. Reaction, and i think the conclusion in iran is that the maximum pressure strategy is over. In defense of economic pressure, alone creating a breakthrough with iran. By killing soleimani, the president is acknowledging it is not working, i will go to a hot war with iran. This is now a direct push to overthrow the regime. Because killing a member of the regime is a redline. That they thought president not i wouldnt say a virtual we will speak on that. But at least would not be crossed. He is not really going for the jugular of the regime. I do not think they have a blueprint of the shell they could present. It just came out of the blue to them. They have gauge how they would react to this. There are two pressures on them. I think they obviously need to react because thats not what the public demands. You have to do something. But i also still believe they believe they need to deter trump. If he gets away with this, the next they will kill the Supreme Leader and the foreign minister, i mean, trump is not playing this game in a way with no particular rules. If you were to say. The iranians had done it but we hadnt done it. I think they will have to do something, when and how they do it, how much they prepare to escalate remains to be seen. There is no back channel between the two countries. The omani foreign minister is there today. It is not at the level that will have any impact on iranian decisionmaking. The president s public rhetoric is incredibly menacing. And even if we say dont believe him, the problem with his twitter diplomacy, i dont call it diplomacy, twitter storm, i guess is that he does not give the other side any political maneuvering room. He is humiliating them and challenging them. Now, the most significant piece of this. So the outpouring at the funeral has taken everybody by shock. I think, theres no way for those on twitter that the regime could manufacture this in two days notice if they can do that, then theyre in total control of the country. You push a button. There is no question that this was an outpouring. Quickly, because this is important to the public dialogue in america. Theres a division ofsome manny here which of soleimani here which we keep adding adjectives with how evil he was. The way iranians saw him became very different. Mean, an average iranian, i had not heard since 2006, 2008. But when disappeared. And iran sees they saw this as a strategic movement. You have to deal with isis inside. The logic is not very different president bush who says you to fight in there if you dont want tonight here. And he was sent on a mission to organize the forces in iraq with the help of ayatollah sys tanny. Sistani. , they remember what happened in 2006 when insurgents blew up one of the most revered shrines for this she is shias. In their eyes, so in their eye, soleimani is the national hero. He singlehandedly prevented this from happening. That is why they revere him. Protector. Im as a it is not blown out of forgetion, but we often people can have more than one idea at the same time. They can dislike the revolutionary guard but lik