Cspan, your unfiltered view of government. Crated by cable in 1979 and brought to you today by your television provider. Nearly a third of democratic president ial delegates will be chosen this super tuesday. 14 states, democrats abroad and america samoa will all be voting. Carl cannon, how decisive do you think super tuesday will be . You have one third of the delegates that will be at the Democratic Convention in milwaukee that will be chosen on tuesday. We will not know all of them. California is going to take a while to count. But you start to think about, in a crowded field, if one person can win most of those states, the advantage they have may be insurmountable. Im talking about a specific candidate now. Who are you talking about . Im talking about Bernie Sanders. This could be decisive. Maybe not. He saw on the debate stage every democratic candidate except Bernie Sanders would not commit to the idea that the person with the most elegant going into milwaukee would be the nominee. I do know if it will be decisive. But it will be quite a story the day after super tuesday, when you have all of these states picking all of these delegates. Pledged delegates are up for grabs on super tuesday. For nominationd on the first ballot. In that state alone. And that word used is a keyword. Committed delegates. Committed. They cannot vote. They have to vote for who they are supposed to foot four when they get there. Even the superdelegates. They have to vote for, if they are on the slate that bernie slant Bernie Sanders carries and california has complex rules, they have to vote for that person on the first delegate. There is no smokefilled rooms. Democrats do not even smoke anymore. [laughter] even if there were, this thing is not going to be done in secret. These elegant on the first ballot will have to vote for who they are pledged to vote for. Peter here are some numbers. There are4750 total delegates. 3979 are pledged. Elegancerdelegates needed for a win on the first ballot, 1991. Subsequent ballots, 2375. 13super tuesday delegates, 57. It gets complicated it goes past the first ballot, doesnt it . Carl yes and every journalist of my generation has been longing, praying really for a brokered convention. We did not get when this time we may get one this time. We say that every time. The way the democrats have set up the rules and the field is so large, getting to 50 of the delegates is going to be difficult. Perhaps Bernie Sanders can do it. If joe biden caught fire or Mike Bloomberg caught fire and ran the table perhaps they could do it. As a betting man i would say the odds are that the leader will not have 50 going into milwaukee. Peter you mentioned Mike Bloomberg. 200, 300, 400 far on dollars so Television Ads but he skipped the first four states. Carl theyll have a theory. On the debates they are bickering and acting like children but privately they have a theory that is rational, how they can get there. Mike bloombergs theory of the case is that joe biden would founder. And that then the Party Establishment and rankandfile democrats who are not democraticsocialist or not the left quarter of the party would look for an alternative and he would be that alternative. Now did biden founder . He did not do well and i will or New Hampshire, but he is not dead yet. And it turned out that the person who foundered was Mike Bloomberg in the first debate. He did not plan on being there. He was not competing in the vat up. But he did so well with the ads that he got on stage. He did not seem quite ready. But we are going to find out on super tuesday, if the kind of money he spent on these ads can really sway an electorate, because they are very good ads. And he spent a lot of money on them. It is a test case. I think political scientists will be studying this for years, how others ads helped him on super tuesday . Peter and whether or not they can help overcome his debate performances. Carl and the first debate really. The second debate, none were very good. The first debate, he did not seem prepared. Theyll attack him, which he should have anticipated and he did not. And he did not do well. The second debate was a wash. I do not think the South Carolina debate helped any of them. Are the debates more important than ads . These are interesting questions. We will get some answers tuesday. Peter does Bernie Sanders have a ceiling . Carl im hesitant to say that. It depends in a way how you define that. I learned this four years ago. Donald trump was said to have a ceiling. He was winning all these primaries. But rim ever he was not getting 50 of the boat, he was getting 30 or 40 of the field was crowded. The reason it was crowded as the same reason as this year. All of those other republicans thought, if i can just get all cane other guys to quit, i get a go against donald trump oneonone and can beat him. Theres no evidence of that without thought that. Because they all thought that they were slow getting out. Meanwhile, travis racking up delegates. He is getting under the skin of the others. Trump is racking up delegates. In may in indiana, by that time there is only two or three he is winning anyway. So i have learned to be modest about this. The establishment views the center as the ceiling but im not sure that is true. Peter the secondbiggest prize, texas, to order 28 delegates at stake. Texas has morphed politically, hesitant, has it not over the last 10 years . Carl it has unlike everywhere in the country, arising latino population. And for a generation has been a republican state. But there are people old enough to remember when it was a democratic state. The state is getting closer. Are not statewide democrats elected there, but the margins have are in president ial elections. The margins have been getting closer in residence elections. In terms of the primary electorate, we do not quite know where texans are. There used to be an old split back in the days of john f. Connolly. Ohn it is not that clear cut. Your progressives in austin and latinos all over the state. There are populists. Young voters, millennials. Heres one thing to remember because this is true in texas and everywhere else, peter, millennials are the largest generation of voters in american history. That is new this time. Cusptime they were on the of overtaking baby boomers and another half. If Bernie Sanders is doing good with young voters, that used to be a throwaway line. That is not anymore. That is his base and it is a good base to have even in texas. Peter are these undertake all primaries . Carl no and they have outlawed them. Again, heres the problem with. He super tuesday when i was a kid california was winner take all and it was held in june. If you can hang on until then you could show the part you are really the person who should be the nominee. That is gone now. It is gradual. George mcgovern started that. The progressives did not want this. They wanted their strengths to be reflected. But now, no state is winner take all. It is not even winner take all by congressional district. If you are well organized or have a strong core of support , as long assanders it is more than 50 you will get delegates everywhere. California has as long as it you will get15 , delegates everywhere. California has done away with winner take all. In a crowded field it helps a candidate who has a committed codger of supporters, even if those a committed cohort of supporters even if the supporters are only 20 peter lets say joe biden or in any club chart pick up 10 of the klobuchar pickup 15 percent of the vote. Does that keep them alive . Carl 10 , no. 15 . That is good. Theres a threshold that applies to all of them. In california we have a story in real clear politics this week written by a wellknown journalist who points out that you put all of these ranked candidates together and get 20 830 40 of the votes and they wont get any delegates. It will only go to those candidates with 15 or more in these places so who does that help . The candidates with strong name identification, probably biden. And those with a committed core, like sanders. Klobucs candidates like har. She has done well in the debates but she is not well known in california. Has not had money to compete on the airways the way she would like. Unintendedaw of consequences squared. That is what california has this year. Peter carl kennett you mention two things. Your 1 carl cannon, mention two things. Real clear politics. And lou cannon. First, what is real clear politics and what is your role . Carl real clear politics and i say this even when i am not on cspan. In a way it is like cspan. We are nonpartisan. We present all of the views. As a free website if youre unfamiliar with it. I think people who watch this program are. But if you are not, we got our start in 2000. , one washings brandnew and one was so old it was new, the new thing was the average polls and the rcp poll average of the Gold Standard and there are other people doing it. And doing it well. We did it first. I still think we do it best. Take that with a grain of salt because i work there. The other thing is, we aggregate. We curate the best arguments left right and center on our front page. That is a model of journalism that goes back to Benjamin Franklins day but i am sorry to report it is not followed very much anymore. So whatever your own views are of politics, you will find them reflected on our page. The hope is you will expose yourself to another view and maybe open your mind and see there are merits to other arguments you may not necessarily realize. Of the original content. Fill wegmanrters, covered South Carolina and Susan Crabtree covered nevada. Howard feynman is a new contributor and he was in New Hampshire for us. We try to be nonpartisan. Everybody says that but i think we do a good job. Peter and your title is Washington Bureau chief at real clear politics and you are executive editor at the real clear media group. Now we have a polling unit. John della volpe runs our polls. We have a publishing unit. We have real clear science. Real clear history. Real clear defense. Real clear markets. We have these things. I am nominally over those editors but they really do their own thing. Peter who founded in 2000 . Carl John Mcintyre and tom bevan. They were not friends, they both went to princeton. John played lacrosse and tom light football. They did not know each other but they met in chicago and were political junkies. I tell people they do not know that much about Data Journalism but it was a good time to not know much because people like me who were born and raised in it, a lot of the things we took for granted or believed in were about to be blown up, mostly by the internet but by other forces. They started this website. Not happen in Silicon Valley but in chicago. Out of the garage they started the site and it has taken off. I joined about 10 years ago. I had a long career in newspapers. And in magazines. With the national journal. We spoke of lou cannon earlier. I was born and raised in the new business the news business. Wasather, lou cannon, reagans best biographer and covered reagan. And lives in california now. Peter where did you get your start . Carl i grew up in california and my first newspaper job was paperboy, a profession that barely exists anymore. He would get on bikes and deliver newspapers. I delivered the San Francisco chronicle. He would go to peoples houses and give them the paper. I went to Journalism School at the university of colorado and started my career at a small virginia newspaper and worked in georgia and california newspapers. I was sent here by the San Jose Mercury news. Thought i would be here a couple of years and go back to california. Reagan was president when that happened and i have been here all that time. Peter you have written a couple of books. Carl my first book was called the pursuit of happiness in times of war. I spoke on this network with it about it with brian lamb. It helped leaders use the language of the declaration, the preamble to rally americans in times of war or other crisis. Onmost recent book is called this date, discovering america one day at a time. Events, 368es of of them. A little vignette about something happening in the United States on that day. What isrl cannon, the effect of President Trump holding rallies in a lot of the primary states right before ies . E primar have you seen that before . Carl yes but the old days of the president standing down during the Opposition Party convention, that was a civility. You can tell people in the white house would not even believe that ever happened. We are a lot beyond that point now. Trop is trying to show his strength. The state of iowa, and early caucus state, is a state he things he can carry. He wanted to remind people of that. He would like to carry New Hampshire. He plans on carrying South Carolina. These early states are places he can show he can flex his muscle. Member we have never had a president impeached in the first term like this. He is feeling put upon. He wants to sort of get back at the democrats. He is not over it yet, lets just say. [laughter] peter how did this all begin . Where did super tuesday come from . Carl i was thinking about this. The first top time i heard the phrase, wasnt 1976. Was in 1976. I was right out of college. There were three primaries on the last day, june 8 i want to say. Jersey, ohio and california and that is how i knew about it. This was a lot of delegates. Jimmy carter had stolen the march on the democratic field that youre in iowa. By the end of it, he was an outsider, not to the extent trump is, but he challenged the establishment. And the establishment is thinking what are we going to do to stop them . They did not really have a candidate. They had a couple of candidates, skip jackson and mo udall. Jerry brown the new governor of california entered late. This is the first time he was governor, very young. He won for the last six primaries. He won maryland. Jersey one won new the last day an uncommitted one, that was his slate. One california and it came down to ohio. It partly came down to ohio because jody powell who worked for carter convinced people high with the real referendum. New jersey uncommitted, california, he is from california. Ohio is where it is at. That was pretty good spin. They had an operation in ohio. They had ohioans on their staff, jerry austin and snyder and the governor was for carter. And they pulled it out. That was kind of the first super tuesday. There were some primaries early in the season in may, three primaries on the same day, maybe six of them. On the republican side. And reagan was challenging ford, remember . And they split those two. So as not really that super. The first super tuesday really is the day carter loses but wins by winning ohio. Offr that and then it took as a term. It had a real southern flavor. Peter in the early days, didnt it . Carl thats right. The super tuesday the way we think of it now started in 1980 when alabama, georgia and florida decided they were going to band together on the same day and give themselves more influence. , twou think about it things are going on. One, states want power. Everybody wants to have their voice heard. And Party Leaders want to help get the person who would be most tough to beat in october or november. That is selfserving. But the seven ors want a moderate. Want asoutherners moderate. That was the first super tuesday. Reagan lost to ford in 1976 and by 1980 theres no stopping him. And jimmy carter is the incumbent. But the southern democrats ted kennedy was challenging carter and they thought they will help carter by having the early primaries in the states and it did help carter. 8, 1988. Primariesstates held and mostly in the south. Washington and hawaii as well. Massachusetts. Was it decisive in 1988 . Carl it was decisive, but it backfired. It did not happen the way they want it to happen. Party chairman on the democratic size side in 19 they looked at 1984 where Walter Mondale carried one state. That was the First Campaign i covered. He went into georgia and the governor would not be seen with him. So there southern democrats said we need a more moderate person. ,e are going to have this super super tuesday. Other states said maybe we should go that day as well . Youre going to not get a guy like michael to caucus, that is the idea. But you got michael to caucus so how did that happen . Dukakis. L in my view that there was wrong to begin with. In 1984 Walter Mondale, he got a hearing. They had Jesse Jackson ran that year. Don glenn ran print it came down to gary hart and mondale. The moderates had their say, they just cannot win. The primary calendar was not the problem. The other thing was, they lost to ronald reagan. Anybody would have lost to ronald reagan. For the democrats to beat ronald reagan, frankel and roosevelt would have had to still be alive. He was not. The thing to me was maybe a considered to begin with. Franklin roosevelt. But jessea moderate, jackson and al gore split the southern primaries. The northern states added their states and dukakis one Dick Gephardt and Jesse Jackson and al gore siphoned off votes in florida that might have gone to a moderate so dukakis one there. In the end it backfired and beured Michael Dukakis would the nominee on super tuesday of 1988. The law of unintended consequences. Peter 21 states in 1988. It is 14 states this year. It has been a variety of states every year. They come in and they go out. Carl the party tries to control it. Eight years ago they punished these states, michigan, you move up or we will not seek your delegates. Come on . How do not see their delegates . The National Party really has little control. They have tried to exert control. The National Party tries to exert control for the most logical and healthy reason, the parties want to have the best nominee. They feel, should we have original primary . Should we get rid of iran New Hampshire . Why did South Carolina jump up . Every year you have these. The states decide themselves. Essence of the problem. Unless you are the nominee. Then you thing beauty of the system. Cannon, with a case in 1980 and 2020 four massachusetts is art of super tuesday. But theyre kind of like the kid in the back of the room raising his hand and nobody is paying attention. Carl massachusetts has had these nominees and they have not done well. John f. Kennedy one. But dukakis did not win. John kerry did not win. Ran against bill clinton. That was a super tuesday in 1992 one massachusetts but that is it. Massachusetts will not have the role of texas even on the democrat excited. Even on the democratic side. The basejohn mccain, of his support was new england. He won New Hampshire and on super tuesday he won all the New England States including massachusetts. There is power in numbers. Thinking of massachusetts, if you get all the new eglin states together, all the New England States together dock make sense. There are people who want to have regional primaries. G think what happened and iowa would be repeated . Carl the iowa thing was inexplicable. It rendered irrelevant what had happened there. Argumentndermines this it is not just conservatives who say the party that wants to proceduresedical cannot count votes. In one state. This was not a good look for them and they knew it. And the democrats were angry about it. They had a right to be. But i think the caucus system itself is probably an anachronism. If youre going to primaries you should have primaries. It is easier to count votes. I say that before super tuesday when california will prove me a liar by taking a month to count its foes. As a rule, it is easier count gym anden hands in a people are going here and there to the next candidate. And all the things i would does which we thought were quaint, and now we think are goofy. 1992 merle black and earl black appeared on cspan book notes talking about their book, the vital south. I want to show a portion of it and get your reaction. Video] the most interesting for me about the super tuesday primaries in the deep south states, is that for the first time in history in those primaries, more white voters voted in the republican primary than in the democratic primary. I think this is a leading signal of increasing white indifference to the Democratic Party. Many whites just not really caring too much about what the democrats do, for many of the southern whites who are racially conservative, i the Democratic Party has dropped off their radar screen and theyre not thinking about the democrats. Is it racebased . Rice is a substantial part of that but i think its a combination of race, economics, tax policy. Where the final conclusion is reached by the more racially conservative whites, that the Democratic Party is not representing their interests. Cannon . Arl carl im not your race is the cutting issue, even then. Their other issues, is health care a human right . Which is a phrase Bernie Sanders uses. The point is an interesting one. The south had always been part of the democrats coalition. Dr. Thomas jefferson. It was part of Franklin Roosevelt coalition. He was not a racial conservative. But they counted on the seven south. That disappeared by 1992. There were people and one is a friend from california, lest francis, who worked in the Carter White House and went to san jose state. He was at the dnc in 1992. I interviewed him. You will remember for a long time bill clinton was running third that year behind ross perot and George H W Bush. I spoke with les and this is may, late in the game in may, 1992. They were bored at the dnc that clinton would finish a distant third and not qualify for federal matching money. That is a quaint concept because George H Dubya bush blew that out of the water. But that he would not be funded. And less and others produce a paper internal to the dnc and set our future is not in the south but in the west. I wrote about it at the time. In california thats a local angle and chauvinistic of me, that it turned out there was a lot there. Four democrats now, you put together the map and they can win without the south and they had not been able to do that until 1992. Bill clinton was a southerner. And he did what they wanted him to do. He was able to attract black folks and press of whites in the south who are still proud of the south. The clinton had a southern accent and he was one of them. But i think that is not the coalition anymore. As you look at the electoral map that is what not what the democrats are trying to do anymore. Peter 1990 two super tuesday was march 10. 11 states participating. 1992. Bill clinton called himself the comeback kid in New Hampshire but super tuesday really set him on the path. Right . Carl thats right. He won all the southern states. Paul tsongas was in that and a jerry brown and it was not a strong field. When he wins that day and then a week later on the st. Patricks primary in illinois and i think michigan and he wins and clinches it, johnny apple at the New York Times said it this way, southern Democratic Leaders achieved what they saw end to do four years ago, providing a mighty heave forward to the president ial bid of a moderate candidate from their own region. Thats right. Sure do not thinkim not that is the formula anymore. 2000, al gore does not carry arkansas or tennessee, clintons home state and his home state. Sense, with all due respect to frank oconnor, that may been the last hurrah for the southern democrats, 1992. Peter you talk about formula. What is the motivation for a state to join super tuesday . Get lost in the attention. Carl some of the early states, New Hampshire, it is part of the fabric of the culture of that state. Those laces and in those coffee clutches. Places and coffee klatches. It is a system youd hate to throw out altogether. Iowa im having trouble defend anymore. But it is a similar thing. Iowa, Rick Santorum is at 5 in december. In 2012. A month and a half later on the night of the caucus it is a dead heat between him and mitt romney. He went to every county in the state and talked to people with a level of energy and convince them he had the passion that conservatives were looking for. It also foretold some problems for mitt romney. It tells you what is going on in the party, these early states. Decide other states they they want to say so too. And it is more important in than it ever was and heres why. In november, most of us in the country, are essentially disenfranchised by this manichaean polarized environment wherein. We do not have a national election. We have 51 elections, winner take all statebystate. Except in a handful of states. He winner is for ordained you tell me the state and i will tell you if it is a d or an r state. But he thinks it is a great system especially when the parties are polarized. Not only are states left out, centrists are left out. You are down to swing voters in swing states, the only people who count in national, in november. And you know the states as well as i do, peter. Lets add colorado and arizona and virginia and minnesota even to them. Then we are down to the core states we talk about every four years. Pennsylvania. Michigan. Florida. Ohio. New hampshire. New mexico. The parties in the states and rec and found voters think maybe we can have a choice in the nominating process. This is the great rush to frontload the thing and to get on super tuesday, to get on the calendar before the nominee is chosen. This human nature. The answer may be regional primaries. But what we are doing now is, it does not help the parties get their best nominee. But it is understandable why voters in these states want a say. Peter donald trump kind of the script in 2016, dente . By going to michigan and to pennsylvania and winning them for republicans for the first time in a long time. Carl anna trump told us something. Sanders isernie telling us something this time. Peter, andstates, conservatives noticed this, the never trump conservatives. And leftwing progressives Michael Moore noticed this and try to warn the parties. Hillary clinton had difficult in november and states where Bernie Sanders carried against her in the primary and donald trump want in the republican primary. Michigan and indiana for that bill. Bark obama carried indiana. Barack obama carried indiana. It kept Bernie Sanders in the race tilde connect till the convention. Everywhere Bernie Sanders and trump, they were saying is similar things and talking to workingclass americans in Traditional Industries who had been left behind. They talked about nafta. There were two plants there that made refrigerating equipment. Carrier was a company. Company, some the big conglomerate in your, that they were getting rid of the jobs and sending them to mexico and they were not coy about it. Saying we can pay people in mexico three dollars per hour and we are paying you 20 per hour and the companys were profitable. And donald trump and Bernie Sanders used slightly different arguments but they both really attacked this as what was wrong with the economy. They said the two parties had let people down. Donald trump was not really republican. And Bernie Sanders until he ran four years ago, you called him a democrat he would correct you. These two guys have come in and try to take over these two parties. One has done it and the others halfway there. Shot to theseing two parties. It also shows why the political primaries are so important. If we, the people in washington, political writers listen to what the voters are telling us. Peter you talked about local primaries and problems we have had this year. Theres a movement afoot to get rid of the electoral college. Carl yes. This came up in 2000. Bush one, atge w. The Supreme Court and the hanging chads on the floor to hanging chads in the florida recount. Votes, thousand votes out of several million cast. Vote byost the popular almost half a million votes. And people said wait a minute . One, is that the way we should be doing this . When your democratic friend said this to you, if you are me you would say ok. I get the point. If Hillary Clinton had lost the popular vote by half a million votes and one electoral college, would you be saying this . And if they were friends of yours they might admit that they wouldnt. But this thing four years ago was not a half million votes. Half, 3 most to a million votes. It could happen again. Theres a limit to the mouth. Because it cannot be there is a limit to the mathematics. Because it not be 20 million. But if its 4 million votes. Or 5 million votes. That, to me, stresses the constitution. Ive always believed in the logic of the electoral college. And it is the same logic as the senate. But at some point when california has 40 Million People in wyoming has less than a million, should each state get to centers . Senators . It becomes more dickel argument to make. Becomes a more difficult argument to make. At some point the one person one vote, it is not in the bible, you know . T is not a law of nature but it is pretty good common sense. And if one party keeps winning while losing, i think the country will look at this. Peter back to 1992. George h w bush was the nominee. Pat buchanan on super tuesday 135 of the delegates. Carl thats right. What did that tell you . I told you he got a prime speaking spot in houston that year. It told you George H W Bush was going to be the nominee. Youre not a threat to the guy. It also showed this might not have been as strong a candidate as we thought. George a chevy bush until that point George H W Bush until that point had the highest gallup Approval Rating in american history. This is the Gold Standard in social science because the question has been asked identically word for word the same weight since George Gallup was calling people in the 1930s. Do you approve or disapprove of the job harry s truman, linda johnson, ronald reagan, is doing as president . After the gulf war, george h georgeush is that 90 90 , it wasas at unheard of. There was some rally behind the flag. Theres another good social science question. The right track, wrong track question. If it is the wrong direction, that is not a great number for an incumbent to be reelected. Even when bush is at 90 those numbers were about 4545. The board torn on that. Bush, when pat buchanan comes out of a tv studio and he is getting a third of republican vote, it suggested bush might be vulnerable in november, and he turned out to be. 1996 seven states participated in super tuesday. Bob dole clinched it. Steve forbes and pappy cannon had to drop out. Do you know why it dipped to seven states . Pat buchanan had to drop out. Carl i was covering the Clinton White house. Countrygoing around the , talking about the bridge to the 20thcentury. The fiscal conservatives in the senate had the bridge to nowhere. This was the bridge to the 21st century. We scratched our heads and so did the audiences but the economy was doing great and bill clinton was a great campaigner. A threatnever much of to him. At some point bob dole, heres a legitimate war hero. And clinton is going around telling all these whoppers and being glib. Dole gets mad. Wheres the outrage . He is doing good and clinton seemed capable and audiences left him. It was an election about not much. Bill clinton would say this is most important election in our history, but it wasnt. It was an election between two capable guys. And the incumbent one. Won. 2000, we are back up to 16 states participating in super tuesday. Bill bradley ended his campaign after super tuesday. George w bush ended john mccains campaign because of his big victories. In 2004, john kerry did quite well going into that. Then we get to 2008. On the democratic side, we are going to show a video of two people, claiming victory. [video clip] [applause] numbers, wen record voted not just to make history but to remake america. In american samoa, arkansas, massachusetts, new jersey, oklahoma, tennessee and the great state of new york. [applause] [chanting] i also want to congratulate senator obama for his victory tonight. And i look forward to continuing our campaign and our debate. Companyw to lead this better off for the next generation. Because that is the work of my life. The polls are closing in california. [applause] and the boats are still being counted in cities and towns across america. Thing, you know i love you back. [laughter] but theres one thing on this february night we do not need the final results to know. Our time has come. [cheers and applause] the challenges we face will not be solved with one meeting. In one night. Resolved on even a superduper tuesday. Come if we wait for some other person. Or if we wait for some other time. The ones we have been waiting for. [cheers and applause] so that was kind of a split decision on the democratic side, wasnt it . Carl it was february 5. You had 25 states in 2008. Each claimed victory. Why not . They slept about. Splity clinton they the vote. Wonary clinton, h each half the states and half the delegates. The press started to say there is another super tuesday in march. That election was almost a national primary. Us are, therer are couple of things to think about. One is that you really only have two candidates. For the applicable parties that is better. Then you can have a more clearcut winner. They tied all the way through. This was a dead heat. Win. T he had to once the convention. Was shockingly well organized for a freshman senator. He won more these delegates in these caucus states. In the end they got about the same number of votes. It is why he made her secretary of state. It is why she was first in line to be the next nominee. Everybody understood it could have gone the other way just as easily. Each of them said this is a historic night. That was right. Youre going to have the first africanamerican president in United States history or the first woman president in United States history. If you are a of the time, he thought, we have at this years when we have had terrible candidates and now we have two great candidates in one year. That is how people in the party saw it on fabry fifth, 2008. 5, 2008. Ry peter on the republican side, in the summer of 2000, john mccain being politically dead in the water and along came 2008 and here he is on super tuesday night february 5. [video clip] thank you. [chanting] thank you. Tonight my friends we have one a number of important victories in the closest thing we have ever had between national primary. [cheers and applause] won some of the biggest states in the country. [cheers and applause] we have one primaries in the west, the south, the midwest and the northeast. And although i have never minded the role of the underdog, and have relished as much as anyone comefrombehind wins tonight i think we must get used to the idea that we are the Republican Party front runner for the nomination. Of the president of United States. [cheers and applause] ther that is quite comeback for him, wasnt it . Carl he had been given up for dead. He was the joe biden of this year. He came back. Bush inr he had lost to 2000, what he had done was he won New Hampshire. He swamped bush in New Hampshire. And people thought we were going to have this maverick be the president. But in 2008 he is no longer the maverick. This is the old Republican Party, where they nominate the person whose turn it was. And it was his turn. Exactlyesday there did what one of the rare times, what the establishment of the party wanted it to do. It picked the person next in line who the Party Leadersit had been tough for them to come to that point john mccain. But by 2008 that is where they were. He beat romney and huckabee and he was the guy after super tuesday. Peter he referenced national primary. You think that is a good idea . I i do not know, that is for the parties to decide. Lets think about it another way. Because, you have all this early voting now. And you have these debates and campaigns. If you had a national primary, the campaign cannot unfold organically. We learn things about the candidates as the Campaign Goes on. What to me would make more sense is to have four or five regional orderies, in a rolling and a different order every time. I went and New Hampshire would not get to go first every time. If you think about it is backwards. Winter in New Hampshire and iowa is terrible and sprinkle states to be lovely. You probably want to start in the south. Spring in those states could be lovely. He have people with regional strength and the parties could decide if they wanted to be winner take all or region take all. The hodgepodge you have to do every year, they always seem to be one step behind. They are fighting the last war. The Party Leaders who designed , they did this year not do it to favor Bernie Sanders. But if you have seven candidates it does favor Bernie Sanders. I regional primary to me would allow people to plan ahead. You would have people with strength. If a person shows strength and a reason where he or she was not from it would show the party this might be a national candidate. That might be a better way to go. This hasl cannon, not been the first time this was proposed . Carl no its the last time. Im the person. Peter why hasnt it happened . Carl states not want to give up prerogative and the National Party has trouble telling them what to do. Peter nobody can jump in front of iowa. Note he can declare were going to hold our primary or caucus on date . Carl it is interesting think he about how you would get there. To paraphrase Hillary Clinton, it would take a president , not ability. What do president s think about . Their own reelection, lets be honest. But a president who thought about this and wanted to position a party for the future. I do not mean to be critical, but these people do not even pick Vice President s with a mind for the future. The president is a tough enough job. Winning is tough enough. That is all they are focused on. The president is the head of their party, they run the rnc and the dnc, they could do a lot but you have to get somebody who would be thinking outside their own had an outside their own future and our system does not seem to be producing people who take the long view. Peter super tuesday 2008 there were 24 states and the democratic primaries and 21 gop states. In 2012 that dropped to 10 states. For the gop. Mitt romney scored a knockout victory over Newt Gingrich and ron paul. Carl and Rick Santorum. Turn then we come to 2016 we are at 11 states. This was referred to as a sec primary. Carl that is the southern states. Peter returning to its roots . Carl exactly. When you set up a southern primary in an election that has jeb bush and marco rubio and Newt Gingrich, you do not really think a billionaire from queens with a thick new york accent who has never held office is going to sweep your sec primary. [laughter] to put,why it is hard that is when x politics fun. If we knew how was going to come out people would not be watching. Peter a third of the delegates for the democrats were in play. Bernie sanders and Hillary Clinton split. Hillary clinton did better. On the gop side, half the delegates were at stake. On super tuesday, alabama, arkansas, georgia, massachusetts, tennessee southern, vermont and virginia another southern state. Carl the decisive state was florida. That was marco rubios last stand. His alamo as it turned out. He was driven from the race. Donald trump has a place down there, but he was not a floridian. Anyone in florida and essentially ended it. By winning in florida. Peter ted cruz that same night in 2016 one alaska oklahoma and texas. Marco rubio one minnesota. A minnesota caucus. But you can win a bar bet. Theres state he won a primary in. Heres a hint. It is not a state. Puerto rico. Rico andves in puerto i talked to my bosses into saying this pretty rigell thing is important to rubio. He he won but it was not part to him. Peter where you . Carl i was with real clear politics. Peter where were you on super tuesday . Carl i was in our newsroom. We got a reporters together. It was a night where the last doubter even among the press corp. Thought this donald trump thing was real, that was put to rest on super tuesday of 2016. Peter march 1, 2016, heres the president on super tuesday night. [video clip] this has been an amazing evening. Already we won five major states and it looks like we could win six or seven or eight or nine. [applause] it has really been great. I want to congratulate ted on the winning of texas. He worked hard on it. I know how hard he worked actually. So i congratulate ted cruz on that win. That was an excellent win. I know it was a tough night for marco rubio. He had a tough night. [laughter] he worked hard. He spent a lot of money per he is a light weight as i have said. We are going to go to florida. We are going to spend so much time in florida. We have a 20 point lead. I know a lot of groups. A lot of the special interests and a lot of the lobbyists and the people that want to have their little senator do exactly as they want, are going to put 25 million into it from which of came over the wires and i think that is fine. If he wins they will have total control. But he is not going anywhere. [laughter] peter why are you laughing . Carl there is a phrase gracious winner but it does not come to mind. When trump wins he sorts of puts his foot on your neck. Peter the other thing about that night. Carl there is Chris Christie who you may be thought he was going to be the Vice President. On the democratic side, Hillary Clinton 17 states that night. Won seven states that night. Bernie 14. Four. Won she could not quite put this guy way. It showed two things. Then theas stronger media thought he would be. And then his colleagues in congress thought he would be. That he had real staying power. And that she might be vulnerable. Agor tuesday four years foreshadowed what was going to happen. Peter in our remaining 30 seconds, you must a thumbnail of the 771 superdelegates and their potential. Carl on the democratic side, they want to get to a second a role. O they can have unpledged superdelegates, delegates cannot go against their pledge this time, they have to vote for the person they are pledged to vote for. What they would like to do is to be able to get to a second ballot. Who they pick is anybodys guess. There is nothing in the party rules that says the nominee has to be any of those seven people on the stage. In South Carolina. And about a. It can be anybody they want. I wrote a column for real clear politics and said that you know, it could be like 1880 in chicago on the republican side when James Garfield gets up to give a speech in support of fellow ohioan senator sherman. At some point in the speech he stops and says what we want . And 70 calls are from the audience, we want garfield. And that chant goes up, we want garfield. We want garfield. I update that any my scenario, it was Michelle Obama was speaking to the convention. And when she paused and said what we want . Hey chant, we want michelle we will michelle. And she was acclaimed by the convention. A friend of mine who was a lawyer said you dont usually call me but if this happens i want to be a booking agent. Cannon of real clear politics, stay tuned for the Democratic Convention july 13 through 16th in milwaukee. Thank you for being here on q a. Carl it has been a pleasure, peter. Valve ona programs are our website or as a podcast at cspan. Org. Q a on the next q a, Peggy Wallace kennedy daughter of former alabama governor and segregationist George Wallace talks about her fathers controversial career and his later political conversion after almost being assassinated. She also talks about her friendship with Democratic Congress meant john lewis of georgia. That is next sunday at 8 00 p. M. Eastern and pacific on cspan. Hats next sunday at 8 00 p. M. Pacific on cspan. [captions Copyright National cable Satellite Corp 2020] [captioning performed by the national captioning institute, which is responsible for its caption content and accuracy. Visit ncicap. Org] watch our live super tuesday 14 states om including alabama, arkansas, alifornia, colorado, maine, massachusetts, minnesota, north arolina, oklahoma, tennessee, texas, utah, vermont, and virginia. Speeches and results. 9 00 ge begins tuesday at cspan, or listen from cspan radioare on app. Members asked british leader Boris Johnson questions on and Foreign Policy issues. Mr. Speaker, the whole house will want to join me in for ding our condolences those who lost their lives from the two storms. Thank all so like to of those providing support to tackle the impact
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