Hosted by the American Enterprise institute, this is an hour, 20 minutes. Good morning everyone. Im a senior fellow at the American Enterprise institute at would like to welcome you to our final preelection election live panel. We will be back november 5 midday to look at the results thus far. Today, i am joined by my yearagues and by john 14 and henry olson of the ethics and public all the see center. We have a lot of ground to cover, and i am going to start by asking each of the panelists a few questions. They promised concise answers so we can move through a lot of material. Let me summarize the polls. Yesterday, President Trump says he wasnt scared auntie criticized the polls once again. Lets look at the poll numbers. Polls seven major conducted since september 15, bided has been at or above 50 in 133. Trump has been at or above 35 in only 41. His reading has barely moved. Ofn for tier is editor after the people vote, a guide to the electoral college, a slim volume that is all you need to know to understand the complexities of the electoral college. John is an expert in early and absentee voting. John, what percent of the population to you think will vote early or absentee, and can you tell us what we are learning from states such as texas . Answer is achnical lot. Many more people will vote, more than ever, huge increase in vote by mail and total early voting in person in vote by mail. For some context, we have seen a lot more voting in this realm than our elections before. We saw 41 of the American People vote on mailorder early in person in 2016. Early results are stunning. As states open voting process, you see enthusiasm going towards early voting. I give credit to michael mcdonald, university of florida per debts or university of florida professor who spends a lot of time counting these things, but as of today come over 31 million votes have been cast we know of. There were only 56 million of them in 2016. We already well on that road. I think we certainly could see up to 65, maybe 70 if you add the numbers. That is a big number. See certainly over 50 of the vote be early in person plus mailin voting. Youould see up to 6570 if add those together. Quickly other facts, not all states have Party Registration so we dont know about all of that. It, 53 tates that have of the voters are democratic. , werepublican reflecting see that democrats are more enthusiastic about mail than republicans. That texasote is does a lot of early voting. Have 45. 3 ofady their total vote in 2016 have voted early with many days to go. You see these things really stepping up. We see lines out the door. Those are because of enthusiasm and social distancing. In our last session, you were less pessimistic than other commentators that we would see results on election night. Do you still feel that way . I do. There are several factors. There is much more pressure on the counting of the vote and the exact numbers we are going to see a going to be delayed. We often know the winner for we know the final count in the state or nationally. It all depends on the margin. Election, weclose might see significant delays. If it is moderately clear that a candidate has one, those states could be called on election night. We see a number of lawsuits going back and forth with changes to deadlines absentee voting and witness requirements. The Supreme Court often not allowing those changes to go forward although yesterday, and pennsylvania Supreme Court ruling, they let it stand. We are seeing changes there. One state that i would watch is pennsylvania both because of the allowing votes to come back with a postmark and also there is no effort to count the votes early. Pennsylvania will be a state that is doing lots of voting. Other states like wisconsin, arizona, reasonably they may be quicker. Florida although it could be close, they tend to process things quickly. Those are the states that i am watching because they are swing states. I think we would watch the most is pennsylvania. How many states wait until election day to count the ballots . I know the are some lawsuits pending. That number is changing. A number of states wait until election day or some have short times beforehand. The one change in michigan has added an extra day. Some wanted more than that. That is a factor. We should look at the fact of states that dont process ballots early and states that allow them to come in late. A combination of those factors with other things combined can lead to a longer count. Many states, even if they have a short time to count ballots, some of them do it at the polling place. We dont expect those states to be delayed. Equation howicated these things fit together. And oath, pennsylvania and having potential issues. One final question, what do you make of the reports that republicans have registered new voters more than democrats. Im not sure how it will affect the calculus in terms of early voting. Democrats are more enthusiastic about voting by mail. It is always difficult to tell in the registration numbers whether we are picking up a lagging indicator of democrats voting republican. Western pennsylvania democrats who feel more at home in the republican but have not changed the registration until recently. Those are good numbers. In a sea of not so great numbers for republicans, perhaps there is hope for republicans that or of a search is not being protected detected. Thank you very much. Before we turn to michael, i would like to welcome our cspan audience and thank our staff. For all the help they have given us in putting this together. Also, the wonderful events team. We are grateful to all of you for the help you have given us. Michael, lets turn it over to you. Lets look at the senate contest. The last time, you said the democrats have a serious chance of recapturing the senate. Is that where you still are today . Yes it is. Its an interesting contrast with 2016. Then, you had four incumbents that ran ahead of donald trump and one there states. They were seriously contested races. This year, its different. Two states, republican senators are running for reelection. Hillarye carried by clinton. Cory gardner, and one pole we have in colorado does not seem to be running about even with trump not sufficiently ahead to be competitive if one pole is correct. Fiveis interesting to me, incumbent republican senators are running behind donald trump. Martha mcsally in arizona is way behind donald trump and her democratic challenger. Ernst in northni carolina and iowa are running behind their democratic challengers. In three other races, republicans have narrowly, in states where trump is well ahead, that includes Lindsey Graham in South Carolina and one in montana and another in kansas. Seem notn incumbents to have been able to establish records of their own that would commend them to voters. Lets look at a few other contests in georgia. Those races seem to be very close. You have had an increase in turnout enjoy jet and an increasing number of africanamerican residents and voters in georgia. Black majoritys suburbs of atlanta have been increasingly important in elections there. They have many people moving from the metropolitan area. That is making georgia a more Democratic State so you have the incumbent republican is running just barely ahead of his democratic challenger the guy thenarrowly lost a race in upscale six Congressional District a few years ago. Have theher race, you race in november for the open seat vacated by the resignation of johnny isakson. , its currentbe race in november will establish the two top that will go on to a general election in february. Isolph warnock the democrat clearly going to make the runoff. The question is appointed senator kelly and doug collins are going to make it in. They have been running even, so that race could end up determining the majority of the u. S. Senate next february. Here are a few races you havent ancient. Alaska, kansas, and alabama. Alaska is a race for dan who won his race six years ago. The independent who has support for the Democratic Party sullivan seems to be leading. Some democrats are saying thats a close election. You mentioned in addition alaska and kansas. Kansas, we have very little polling but the democratic candidate is a former republican officeholder and thats a state where the upscale voters in johnson county, kansas next to kansas city, missouri, metro kansas city has got most of its upscale voters they live on the kansas side of the border. Reliably been making republican kansas a less republican state because they have been attracted to democrats like many upscale voters in suburban areas around the country. That is when that is a programs. You mentioned also alabama. That looks like a pickup for the Republican Party to add to their current 53 seats. Doug jones of alabama is running way ahead of where democratic president ial candidates run but that is not enough to win in that state. Rejected andto be republicans will gain. The other possible recovery republican gain it appears is in my old home state of michigan where the republican john james came within six points of beating the incumbent two years ago. Its running just about four points behind gary peters, a democratic one term u. S. Senator who at one point, had the lowest degree of substantive identification of any u. S. Senator. Pickup andsible possible good news for republicans in what otherwise appears to be a bad news night for them in u. S. Senate contest. Thank you. None of the Senate Candidates to my knowledge have tied themselves to donald trump in recent advertisements. Some of them have even said that they will be a check on a joe biden presidency. That is something that usually happens and im surprised it hasnt happened more. When joe biden has been unwilling to state where he stands on packing the Supreme Court which many professional democrats are in favor of but which pulls badly with general election voters, i would expect republican candidates in close races to say stop the from taking over adding justices to the Supreme Court, packing the court. President roosevelt made a mistake when he did that in 1937. We would expect to see that from thom tillis in North Carolina. I would expect to see it from incumbent republicans who cannot keep up with donald trump in their home state polls. Races usuallyght break in one way or the other . Senate races often do. 1980, Senate Republicans want that was a huge surprise at that time. Seats went tof the democrats six years later, they one a Senate Majority that had not been anticipated. Won seven ofcrats the nine closest races. 2014 republicans won five out of the seven closest races. They gained majority in the senate. If all of the close races go one way, i could see a senate they could end up instead of 46 democrats as it does today with as many as 55 democrats. Goall the close races against the democrats, which seems unlikely, you might see a senate that still has three republican senators. People split their tickets less and less and in the past. You expect that to change . We are too polarized for that to happen. A political scientist in the 50s said it would be clear great if we had a clearly liberal and clearly conservative party. It took 50 years. Cultural issues and issues of pull personal values are important, people tend to stick with their party up and down the ballot. Their views on moral issues are not something that changes or wobbles or changes very much depending on the Unemployment Rate or other external factors. This will last about 40 years but you will have to find someone else to election watch in 2040 or 2042 to tell you why it is happened. Thank you very much. Norm, you are up next. What do you expect to happen in the lameduck if joe biden wins and democrats control the senate and house . If we think about the lameduck session and most certainly there will be one of some sort, remember the republicans will still have the senate and the presidency all the way through until january 3. I dont think we will expect to see much of an inclination among democrats in the senate to do Something Big on the covid recovery, economic stimulus front in a way that would benefit the Joe Biden Administration by having the economy settle down and dealing with a covid crisis that Infectious Disease specialists expect to ramp up. What we will see is a lot of inaction. What we have to keep in mind on that front is, as john talked about pennsylvania, if there are serious questions about the election and that includes questions as we go forward about whether there are contested slates of alletes, that will be decided by the next congress on january 6. I expect we will see along the way a senate and probably a president doing what they can during the lameduck session to try to make sure the outcome comes out the way they want. We will have an acrimonious time. If the republicans control the senate and joe biden wins, we will get more of a sense of not wanting to do things that will no longer benefit their party in an electoral sense but that will make joe bidens life easier. We would expect a great deal of tension and gridlock as we move forward into the next year including on confirmations not of executives but Branch Appointees in the administration. You have watched a lot of transitions and i think the planning has begun already we have a biden presidency. This appears to be one area where the Trump Administration is cooperating. What should we watch for if joe biden is elected . I am not sure we will see a lot of continued cooperation. President trump will not be a happy camper if he loses the presidency. Indicatedrs have not a willingness to work closely with the joe biden people. I am expecting a tumultuous and difficult transition if we see a joe Biden Victory. Some of it depends on when the victory takes place. Thatber, a transition would take place under a set of circumstances where we dont know the Election Results and we may have to go until the new senate and house to determine slates of electors. That is at least a small possibility. It is not a zero probability. That is going to throw the transition into complete turmoil. Transitions have varied greatly. That includes a transition within the same party. Where the outgoing people are not all that interested in making life easy for those coming in. We have had others that have been models and to me, the real model is the one from george w. Bush to barack obama. Staffnd his chief of deserve a great deal of credit. Whether we have that this next time, i am skeptical about it. One other point i would make an a gets back to what michael said about the georgia race. Newe look toward the congress, remember it is january 6 when congress certifies the electoral votes and if there are contested electors. There has been some real question about what happens if democrats pick up enough seats to get to 50. Then if its a 5050 senate with the Vice President mike pence still in that chair another 14 days. If the second georgia seat is not decided in november and wont be decided until february, that i believe will be a vacant seat and it will give democrats edge until february. We could have a really interesting and unusual dynamic if democrats dont when most of those close races and if its an election that is a lot tighter than we see now. A lot of names are being floated as possible members of a joe biden cabinet. Can he satisfy the progressives and moderates . We have already seen progressive pushback on some of the names like the chief of staff and front runners for that position. Second question, i wonder anyher you envision republicans serving in the Joe Biden Administration. Many names have been floated. The Democratic Party has been strikingly united to this when it comes to the election itself. That will change to some degree in the aftermath of a Biden Victory where there will be a lot of push and pressure to make get the different forces some share of power in the new administration. One of the interesting elements , joe biden has committed to having an africanamerican woman if and when he gets an opportunity on the Supreme Court that there will be significant numbers of people of color in the cabinet. We are seeing africanamericans saying they dont want to be the leadership, they dont want to settle for the traditional slots of housing or hhs. It doesnt surprise me if we would see an africanamerican woman as attorney general. I think we are going to see a number of posts like that and secretary of state. We will see a lot more push and pressure on places like the secretary of treasury. Almost athink it is certainty that joe biden will not pick someone with a background on wall street. It will be someone with a different kind of background. I am very skeptical that it would be elizabeth warren. In part, for pragmatic reasons. To throw into some question a senate seat at a time when you might need a lot of those if its a 55 seat democratic majority which is a remote possibility, that might be different. I dont think we will see that happening. Joe biden is going to be able, because there are a lot of prime posts out there, he will be able to satisfy different factions in different ways. Number of significant republicans going into the Biden Administration. That might include dan coats going back as director of national intelligence. It might include tom ridge coming back as well as the ones that you mentioned. Includingplaces, those other than those symbolic slots ambassadorships and others, joe biden is going to start out i think beyond any show he isying to going to be the president of all the people and he wants a bipartisan approach. The question is going to be what happens after january 3 or after january 20 with a democratic president and possibly a Democratic House and senate. Whether the Republican Party