U. S. Supreme Court Declines to change wisconsins voting rules and keep election day deadline for mailin ballots. What did the court decide in what is the impact . Caller guest the courts decided that ballots not to overturn an appellate decision. They said ballots cannot be accepted after election day. This whole site has a history dating back. Of chaos andot Court Decisions at that point by a federal judge to allow the receipt of absentee mailin ballots that had been bait mailed by election day but did until several days later. The Supreme Court let that stand back in april and the issue was revisited this fall in another lawsuit. In the same federal judge ruled shouldember that states accept ballots that arrive after election day if they were mailed by election day. I was overturned by an Appellate Court it was overturned by an Appellate Court. He went to the Supreme Court who up out it went to the supreme the appellateeld court ruling. So we will not have an extended. Ount where we are waiting the ballots will have to be received by city clerks by election day. Another article, election day in seven days, here is when we might know a winner and how each candidate could claim victory. When will we know the victory in wisconsin . The latest on at wednesday morning. It could be 5 00 in the morning, it could be 2 00 in the morning, it could be tuesday night. It depends on how close it is. We are expecting that it will take longer to count absentee ballots in some key cities, particularly the city of milwaukee. Wisconsin has an unusual election system. Elections are entirely conducted on the local, not county level. One locality does a different from another. The city of milwaukee and 38 cities count absentee ballots at a central location. All the other communities send those ballots back to local polling places and they are counted along with the election day votes. Seven cities like milwaukee which has whats called a central count, you have the potential for the absentee ballot count to be reported in one big number late in the process. That has happened in the past in milwaukee. You could be talking about 150,000 or 200,000 votes, in a place for the city of milwaukee where most of the votes will be absentee ballots. We willcome in probably not get that number before midnight. Its a close election, the city of milwaukee is a very democratic city which will contribute heavily to the democratic vote. Those votes will matter in a close election. Host this is how we are dividing the lines and we encourage you to join in on the conversation with your comment or question about campaign 2020. If you are supporting me trumppence ticket, 202 7488001. If youre supporting the bidenharris ticket 202 7488000. If you are undecided or have another candidate, 202 7488002. Wisconsin residents, please dialin 202 7488003. Or you could text us with your first name, city and state at that same number, 202 7488003. According to a new poll by the research center, the university of wisconsinmadison. 44 inleads 53 to wisconsin. This poll was taken october 13 through the 21st. Its a bigger lead than he had in september. Whats the lay of the land now . Caller the polling in wisconsin is pretty steady. Having a is typically smaller lead for joe biden than what he has had in the national polls. In wisconsin polling that has arranged with most of the polls falling within a four to 10 point range. Some people think the numbers closer to the small end, something gets closer to the large end, but its very consistently showing biden ahead , despite all the twists and turns in the campaign. Despite some chattering events and developments we have had. The numbers have never really changed too much. Theres not a lot of evidence in the polling that the leader the lead is shrinking. Its not clear that its getting bigger. We have to see more preelection polls to know that. But the lay of the land is based on the polling, joe biden has lead. But the state is in play. Both sides are putting everything into it. The president is here, in wisconsin, im in washington, the Vice President is in on wednesday. Joe bidenon will be there on friday. Theres tons of money being spent on both sides on television. This is clearly a short list of states where both sides are going all out to the bitter end. On october 20, trump won by 22,700 48 votes, the third time in the past five president ial elections that this was decided by less than a percentage points. The key to his victory was thoseg noncollege whites, without fouryear degrees, by close to 20 points over clinton according to some post election estimates, this is more than half of the states electorate. Do they turn out again . Do they vote for the president . President has not had the margin with that group in the polling that he had in the election against Hillary Clinton. That does not mean he wont win by the same amount, but we have not seen it in the polling. This is an Important Group of voters. If you look at the top six or seven battleground states, white voters who do not have a college degree, those bluecollar white voters that we read about all the time have a larger share of the vote in wisconsin than any other top battleground, well over 50 . Trump did a lot better than mitt romney with this group of voters. Thats what moved the numbers from a seven point victory in 2012 to a less than one point Trump Victory in 2016. And you saw that more dramatically in a lot of small towns, in central, western, and northern wisconsin. Places obama won by 20 or 30 points. We saw that in a lot of these places. Thats the demographic in those communities. Hillary clinton was clearly part of the equation, she was very unpopular with those voters. I think joe biden is arguably less unpopular with that segment of the electorate which may explain why he appears to be doing better than Hillary Clinton did with those voters. Host why didnt Hillary Clinton overcome those voters with other voters . And what does joe biden need to do differently . Who does he need to show up that didnt show up in 2016 . Better her margins were than past nominees in some parts of the state. She did even better in madison in the area around madison, which is very blue and she did better and trump did worse in the republican suburbs and democratic suburbs around milwaukee. Everything that happened outside madison, thats a huge proportion. Thats what she could not overcome. She also arguably did not try really hard. Wisconsin notoriously was a state she did not visit. As the general election nominee. Putdid not see the effort into wisconsin that democrats put into the other two nailbiter five,ons of the last which was in 2004 with al gore and john kerry putting in a tremendous amount of time, traveling to the state, not just traveling and going to western and northern wisconsin. Part of this was the sheer difference in the amount of energy and effort that democrats put into the state. Host lets get to some calls. Our first out of idaho. Supporting joe biden. Caller good morning. , the card questions that they mail to to send in because of the pandemic. I heard they only gave you two days to mail it out and you had two days to hand in, or do they in weeks but you have to get it in . Linef they have a whole out there voting in different areas, and all of a sudden the time runs out, people are standing out there, lots of people, do they shut the doors and tell them that your vote doesnt count now because we are closed . Those are my questions. Caller they should not shut the doors. In the past when this has happened when we have had lines, when the polls closed, those people have been allowed to vote. In terms of the first question, i think the caller is referring to the absentee ballot process. What happened in wisconsin was that requests were mailed out to registered voters and they could fill out those forms and send them in and have a ballot sent to them, or they could go online and ask for a ballot but they had to prove they were a registered voter and get the ballot sent to them. In terms of the time urgency, we are now at a point, voting by mail has been going on for many weeks. Thannsin has passed more 1. 3 million ballots, most but not all of them by mail. Thats been going on for weeks. To approach 50 of the total turnout, more than half of the votes, probably more than half of the votes in this election will be cast before election day, which has never happened in a fall election in wisconsin. But now we are getting to a point where you are running the risk of not having your ballot arrive in time, if you wait too many days to send it. You have the option of voting in person early, that window started this past tuesday. Weeks, they can we have the hours are had close to 300,000 people voter early. Thats an absentee ballot but its a different way of voting. And a lot of people who worried about voting by mail, but still felt an urgency to cap their ballot are voting early in person. John, ingo to wisconsin, he voted for the president , good morning. Mr. Gilbertt, hello. Guest oh im sorry, i did not hear that, good morning. First, a few facts. Subscriber, are you paid by the journal or by kennett . Guest im an employee of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel and have been for more than 30 years. Caller are you aware of the way Milwaukee People are harvesting after goingt now doortodoor and taking ballots and bringing them in. Many have already been posted, and the same in medicine to a. Esser extent i dont think its a fair. Lection i hope there is a group of people who think that trump may have done a good job around the state, but i dont think they and the madison milwaukee area. Host let me lead there. Are you following . Guest i dont know what hes referring to with respect to ballot harvesting. You have to deliver your ballot in wisconsin to city officials. It doesnt allow for third parties to go around collecting ballots and then delivering them to the local clerks and im not aware of that happening. Host the president just tweeted , strongly trending on google, that immediately after the second debate is can i change my vote, this refers to changing it to me he says, the answer in most states is yes, go do it. Is this true . Can you change your vote . Caller i dont believe so, you can change your mind, but you cant go back and recast your ballot. Host even if its absentee and dissented in . Caller no, your ballot is final. Host bob, you are undecided, good morning. Caller good morning. Guest good morning. Incredible as it far as these battleground states or two ofned that one the largest cities in that state count more typically in each election then all the rest of the state combined. I think its admirable that we finally have somebody who gets out the rural vote in these battleground states, as was proven in the last election, and motivates as the more senior voters that have not voted in quite a while. Host lets take that, the rural vote and wisconsin versus the urban vote. Caller if not the case in wisconsin that one or two cities combined outweigh the rest of the state. Its not even close to being the case. The city of milwaukee is probably 10 of the vote in wisconsin. Thats easily the biggest city in the state. Madison is less. So even if you combine a few counties that madison and milwaukee sit in, its far less than half the vote in the state of wisconsin. The rural vote is a big deal we saw that in 2016, the swing in the rural vote was how donald trump won wisconsin. There is a big urban vote and suburban vote in wisconsin and a big rural vote in wisconsin. These are not monolithic. The rural vote in wisconsin is not monolithically can serve it in or republican. There are role counties, particularly in the west that have a long history of voting democratic. Trump,d vote for donald but often by small margins. They swing a lot. Some could swing back. The cerumen vote is not monolithic. We have very republican suburbs around milwaukee which are probably getting a little less republican, but also extremely democratic suburbs around madison and just north of the city of milwaukee and very purple suburbs in parts of southeastern wisconsin and the green bay fox valley area. So as much as we talk in broad suburbanbout urban and and rural voters, they are not all caps on the same cloth. Swinghow to swing voters how did swing voters swing in 2018. Guest some did swing back to democrats but not a lot. Elections,on three lost his third attempt for third term by one point. If you think about the swing from 2016 to 2018, you had a president at the top of the president republican winning by less than a point, and republican governor losing by a little more than a. 2 years later. You also had a democratic senator, tammy baldwin, winning by double digits. Big swing there. But the interesting thing is that some of the communities that swung so hard for donald , particularly the most rural ones got a little more republican. But others swung back in voting democratic for governor and president. So not the same pattern and trends across the state, a swing back, but not a massive swing back to democrats in the midterms. Host zach, in indianapolis sends us this text, knowing how most trump voters are traditionally silent voters, which is why the 2016 productions were so skewed, what has wisconsin done this time to consider these silent voters compared to 2016 . Caller guest theres not a lot of evidence that the polls missed lots of people. One of the criticisms of polling in 2015 was that pollsters did not wait for education, which meant that the people they were sampling were disproportionately College Graduates and so they were missing the more bluecollar vote, which is why they maced the election in some key states like wisconsin, that is not really apply in wisconsin where the leading and most frequent pollsters has always waited for education, thats marquette law school. What happened in that particular poll i think was that it was done eight days before the election, you had a lot of voters who do not like donald trump or Hillary Clinton and they were undecided and not entrenched in their preferences and there was a swing for donald trump in that final week. That was an important explanation with what happens with the polling in the disconnect. There were voters who made up their mind, conflicted motors, voters unhappy with both candidates and they overwhelmingly voted for donald trump over Hillary Clinton four years ago. This time around, that group of undecided is smaller and there were fewer voters that disliked both candidates because donald trump is more popular than he was four years ago with republican voters. And joe biden is more popular than Hillary Clinton was four years ago. Thats one reason why the polling has been since stable, more than it was four years ago, the electorate is more doug in an has not move much over the course of these dramatic events. Host teresa is in menomonee falls, wisconsin, supporting the president. Caller good morning. Twofold, one of the things that i noticed in wisconsin, and you sort of mentioned it a little bit, there are not many people who will admit that they are actually there isr donald trump no unity, there is so much like to i would sure see wisconsin and america become more unified and a lot of people think that biden will be able to because he reaches out. Nd empathize with everybody it sounds good, but in reality the people that have to become undivided are the American People and what they believe in. And being able to have a debate between people instead of putting people down. And thats one of the things that i dont care for about model withnot a good how he talks and how he talks about people. For the he has done United States is more than i have ever seen from any president ial person in my life. And i really just want to urge democrats, who went back to biden, to really think about President Trump again. And the other thing that worries me, and this has been from day one, i do not believe that biden biden, who he used to be. I feel sorry for him for that. But something is not right with him. Host ok, i will leave it there so we can get a response. Guest wisconsin is a very divided state, as noted. Its not a brandnew thing. Wisconsin has been incredibly polarized over Governor Walker and his time in office. He took office in 2011 and served until early 2019. I remember the 2004 campaign, which went down to the wire in wisconsin between george w. Bush and john kerry. That was in the aftermath of the iraq war, the early stages, and it was an incredibly Bitter Campaign. It felt like the most Bitter Campaign it we had in a long time. Now, i do not want to downplay the divisions of bitterness we see now, because they are really significant, but it is not entirely new. Of its part of the fabric our politics. Predates donald trump, but it certainly has been amplified over the last four years. And i think a lot of us who cover politics wonder where we go from here with respect to the political climate, the political culture and a level of division that, you know, though distressed of people on both sides. I do not know what the answer to maybe a couple years from now, or four years from now, the political culture will feel healthier. It does not feel especially healthy right now to a lot of people. Host terry supporting the former Vice President. Welcome to the conversation. Caller yes, my name is gerry wh ite, president of the local naacp. Jesus christm that aid, joeocrat and he s biden, save this world. Doesesus christ, when he something, he does it right. And it is going to be right. And i believe that. I believe Vice President joe biden can do that. Harris can do. That. Host dan in maine, voting for President Trump. Good morning. Caller good morning. Involved,has been ever since George Washington conscripted my ancestor to fight. And my children are both army officers. My daughter flies a black hawk helicopter and my son jumps out of them. As a result of Donald Trumps Foreign Policy, they did not have to go in, and they were supposed to go and save our embassy when solo meaning was there, however they did not have to go because President Trump got him before he could take hostages at our embassy. He has made so many Foreign Policy advancements, it is hard to tell them all. I think he has a hard time talking about them all, but he got baghdadi, the leader of isis. And just this week, he got the leader of al qaeda in afghanistan. So, the Foreign Policy is something that people do not look at, but my kids are involved and they didnt have to go back into afghanistan or iraq. He has protected me and my family from all that anxiety. Host dan, go ahead. Caller i look at that and trump , i have an analogy of Foreign Policy as being football. Bardi,ways loved vincent the green bay packers, but i was wondering if there is an analogy of how are the packer fans going to vote . And i think the packer fans are going to vote for donald trump. Host dan, thank you for your familys service. Craig gilbert, you can respond to his analogy, but also the military vote in wisconsin. Guest well, the military vote in terms of military personnel it veterans is not as big as is in states like virginia and florida, but it exists. I made me think back, mentioned at the 2004 campaign, which was such a contrast, because i mentioned how bitter it was, but it was against the backdrop of war and Foreign Policy, which was at the forefront of that election. And here are, you know, the bitterness of this campaign, the divisions of this campaign are for entirely different reasons. And so there are Foreign Policy differences, obviously, between the candidates, and it kind of cuts differently within the two parties, across the two parties, than it did in 2004. Whether the role that is playing in this campaign is a little harder to discern, because as the caller noted, for a lot of voters, Foreign Policy, especially when we are not in a war, are not necessarily at the forefront. In this case at the forefront of a campaign in which we are obviously in the middle of a pandemic and there are big economic issues, as well, related to that. Host doug in newport news, virginia, supporting the president. Caller i think wisconsin should take a longer look at President Trump. He has made the economy strong. Im retired navy, fifthgeneration military. And if joe biden gets in control, we are in trouble. Donald trump is making peace in the middle east when nobody else has been able to do it. They have all talked about it, nobody has done anything about it. I do not want to see our country head down a socialist path. I have been in communist countries, and if anybody thinks that is the way to live, leave this country. That flag, people died for, so you can go out and protest, not rob and burn. That is not what it is about. You can voice your opinion and get off the street and go home. Host laura sorry, doug. Laura in silver springs, supporting the president. Caller i keep hearing a lot of callers talking about the great Foreign Policy of this president and all the wonderful things he has done for the country, but as an africanamerican woman it is very difficult to feel protected in your own country, where your people have lived for centuries, when the president speaks as he does against people who look like you. And it is disconcerting to me because, as an africanamerican in this country i cannot put aside my color and just look at the socalled wonderful things he has done, because my very color could cause my death. So, when people talk about democrats turning back to donald trump, you need to think about some of the africanamerican friends, if you have any, and how they feel about this president. Thank you. Host mr. Gilbert . Any thoughts . Guest just on the political side, it will be interesting to see it will be interesting to follow the votes of africanamericans in this election. Wisconsin is a state that does not have a large africanamerican population, even compared to the other great lakes battlegrounds like michigan and pennsylvania, it is less than 10 of the vote, heavily concentrated around milwaukee, but it was an ingredient in the defeat of Hillary Clinton four years ago because the turn out of africanamerican voters dropped significantly from what was a high level with president obamas reelection in 2012, an extraordinary turnout, and the turnout in 2016 did not really compare. And that was not the major driver of Hillary Clintons defeat, but it was an ingredient of her defeat in wisconsin. Democrats have internalized that, they are haunted by that, and they are doing everything they can organizationally to try to mobilize that boot vote, given the size of the city of milwaukee and the importance of africanamericans in the democratic coalition. So that will be something that will be interesting to watch, whether donald trump on the one hand can get a higher percentage of the africanamerican vote. He is not going to get a significant percentage, but will he get a higher percentage than he got four years ago, or mitt romney got into thousand 12, or democrats succeeded in mobilizing africanamerican voters and will be see a bigger turn out, and as a result, will that add to joe bidens margins statewide . Host here is a text from anne. She wants you to talk about foxconn. She says, you should know about it. What impact could it have on the election . Guest i do not see foxconn having a dramatic impact. There have been so many things movehave not appeared to the election numbers fundamentally, and that includes the protest movement, the unrest in places like kenosha. The pandemic is complicating Donald Trumps reelection campaign, but again we have not seen the numbers move a lot. Foxconn is an issue that will be important to some in southeastern wisconsin. It is a much touted planned project in southeastern wisconsin, originally under the previous governor, Governor Scott walker, and promoted also by President Trump, that has not really panned out the way it was laid out and envisioned. So, there will be some people who are you know, unhappy about that. And who see it as a broken promise. Of whether that moves a lot voters beyond a local area in southeastern wisconsin, i am not sure. Host caller from halifax, pennsylvania, supporting the president. Caller thank you for taking my call. I have three comments. Donald trump was compared to George Washington, when George Washington fought for the independence of this country. I do not think he wouldve encouraged dealing with china. And we also had a president , john f. Kennedy, that stated, do not ask what americans can do for you, but what you can do for america. And there was one more comment i was truly dumbfounded by the gentleman who called and said god picked joe biden for the presidency. My god does not support abortion or killing unborn children. And jesus loved the children. So, this man is very confused when he thinks that joe biden is picked by god almighty to serve the people of this country. Host ok, jim. Ed in arlington sending a text on that point, how important is religion in the wisconsin president ial vote . Guest so, you know, a big part of the story of religion and politics is the bornagain evangelical vote. And it is not as big and wisconsin as some other states. Theres a sizable catholic vote, but catholics are not a monolithic group, obviously, so it is hard to generalize about the catholic vote. As there is in a lot of states, there is a growing component of the electorate that identifies as secular. So we see a big divide, obviously, like we see in other states, between frequent churchgoers a big divide particularly among white voters, among the frequent churchgoers and people who do not go to church. And one of the i did a close look at, we have talked about the white bluecollar vote, such a big part of the demographic in wisconsin, and i spent time earlier this year looking at those numbers and what you find is, again, that is not a monolithic group either, but within that segment you have got huge differences between, for example, evangelical bluecollar whites and nonreligious bluecollar whites. There are massive differences there in terms of how people are planning on voting. Theres a dividing line there that is similar to what we see in other states. Host william, you are undecided. How come . Caller well, i am undecided because i refuse to identify with any party. So, i would rather keep my vote. But here is my question for the gentleman here. When you talk about the Rural Communities in wisconsin n ow, im in minnesota, close to the border, but i think he fails to mention that there are fairly large cities other than menominee and kenosha, even larger cities like river falls, which is a big, College University town. Theres also hudson, right on the minnesota border, and i know many people who work in minnesota and live in hudson. And eau claire. So, i would wonder how these cities are trending, as far as democrat versus republican. My second question is, we get the covid numbers here from wisconsin on a regular basis compared to minnesotas numbers. Wisconsinht now that is maxed out with the icu beds as far as covid and i wonder what kind of impact the pandemic is having on the voters in wisconsin. Those are my two questions. Thanks a lot. Guest with respect to the second part of the question, i think it is a challenge very President Trump. One, it undercuts his argument that we have turned the corner. Wisconsin is a big, important battleground at the epicenter of the pandemic. We have had a big surge in cases, hospitalizations, and that so, i think that politically that poses a challenge for the president. That democratsw are voting early at a higher rate than republicans, republicans more likely to vote on election day, so there is some risk if the bulk of the republican vote is going to come through people going to the and we areection day in a surging pandemic, does that affect the election day turnout to the polls . It may not. It may. But it is a question. With respect to the cities, i mentioned madison and milwaukee in only so much of the vote wisconsin. And only so much of the urban vote in wisconsin. There are smaller cities that are not as overwhelmingly democratic as madison and milwaukee. The caller mentioned at some of them. They did swing back more in the midterms toward democrats. They range from purple to light blue to dark blue in their politics. And these cities, i think, were again, one more part of the ingredient in Donald Trumps victory, because the deficits in these places were not as big as they had been in the past for republican candidates. But they did swing back in the midterms, so they could be important on election day too. Host you can follow his reporting online. Cspans washington journal, every day we are taking your calls live on the air of news of the day, and we will discuss policy issues that impact you. Coming up wednesday morning we will discuss this years president ial campaign in the battleground state of ohio with clevelands lead political reporter seth richardson. And University Professor lauren koplan. Watch cspans washington journal, live at 7 00 eastern, wednesday morning. Be sure to join the discussion with your phone calls, facebook comments, Text Messages and tweets. Here is a look at our live coverage wednesday. At 10 00 a. M. Eastern on cspan, twitters of facebook, and google testify at a hearing on post regulations for social media and the tech industry. At 7 00, our 2020 Campaign Coverage includes a Senate Debate from georgia between the republican incumbent and his democratic candidate. At 10 30 a. M. Eastern, National Security advisor Robert Obrien speaks with the Hudson Institute about current threats facing the u. S. Thats
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