Aftermath of the cyclone bomb and polar vortex and Everything Else and on behalf of brookings and everybody joining through cspan at home. We have an extremely important topic this morning and what those interest should do and also have to have those debates with the division of what the world should look like this pertains directly to the most important policy issues regarding the middle east in recent years or decades with t2 in play with the president about to make a decision and with the public of iran and those calling for a change. I will mention one more logistical thing iran protest if you are tweeting about it. We are pleased and honored to have a canadian journalist with us as well as a human rights activist for many years 1998 through 2011 and another time that was reminiscent of this one and he wrote the New York Times bestseller that later a movie was based on that from jon stewart. The iran wire citizen newspaper very important source of information for many people to know that journalism is not a crime. On the panel will be the Deputy Director of the Foreign Policy program for middle east policy and is our iran expert and among her many achievements i just want to note an excellent book published in 2015 from Cambridge University press she was formally on the writing staff and now one of our leaders here at brookings susans International Affairs columnist from the new weekly podcast and her list of accomplishments is very long and also the editor in Foreign Policy reporting from congress and iraq and the soviet union as co bureau chief and for a variety of different outlets and we are extremely happy that you are joining us. Please join me to welcome our three panelists to the stage. [applause] thank you to all of you for braving the cold we are grateful and cannot think of a more timely event i am a little bit exhausted by 2018. [laughter] and certainly it is a good reminder the outbreak of the protest question already. I cannot think of a better panel to figure that out but a lot of us are starting out this morning with questions is this an interaction report remarkable but litter little understood. That is what we will talk about throughout 2018. But of course the timing is remarkable because here in washington we see the convergence of one of our internal Foreign Policy debate that President Trump faces that deadline next week whether to certify the nuclear deal and to call that into question not to withdraw or proceed with any other with the outbreak of those protest and how do we understand . So when it comes to this or other Foreign Policy issues so what kind of information do we have . It surprises just about everybody not only here in the United States so what have we learned as a result . I cannot think of anybody better to start off that conversation not only with their deep experience inside of iran but the project that has invaluable accounts from inside the country what is going on right now. So lets jump into that. It has been incredible how much we are so self absorbed and we spent half the time discussing and debating what we did 2009. Is this the end . Thank you to organize this and thanks for coming. I want to say people from iran with the organized foreigners it would be a bad decision. Because to go between christmas and new year where people are off. So that in itself can show it was not organized so from what we know the 20th of december there were some demonstrations. And circumstantial evidence that there was a demonstration organized by the government itself. But in order to protect the economic policies and unemployment. So 3000 people gathered in the city and i would like to translate the names of these places when you see the demonstrations they are up against the Freedom Monument it is interesting to understand that as well. So there was a Small Organization organized by the government then we saw demonstrations all over the country. And then of course it was more widespread than three nights ago there were at least four cities some counted up at 70. So we do not know exactly if they say they do they are lying because nobody knows exactly. But it seems most of the demonstrations are because of poverty and unemployment and the economic situation. More people are arrested during the protest are young average age is under 25 so that means the oldest of the people arrested are 17 in 2009. And did not even have the right to vote at that time or even take part. So there were different slogans chanted during the demonstratio demonstration. And for the first time to bring down pictures of the commander of the forces and different groups within and outside of iran had followers and taking part in those demonstrations. That is why you saw in certain cities they would champion for the monarchy the father of the shaw also and also with his birthplace people said is is only about the economy. So with that picture we see it does show there is a Fertile Ground for protest and widespread discontent and even the government if you go beyond what they say then you are admitting there is a wide discontent that can be triggered by anyone as soon as there is a measure of the space or the people. In the last couple of days we have seen organized demonstrations by the government itself they have narrowed the bandwidth and shutdown the gap so we have seen less protest maybe. Organized by the government itself. Interesting to see what will happen later on today. You are right to highlight also the question of leadership like in 2009 so to have a very specific set of political leaders and demands. What you make of that political context of which this was occurring. They are not joining these protest as we understand. One of the key differences that are worth coloring and snoring but the last of the organizations. Heading in so far as we actually know is distinct from those prior periods of protest and it bears noting that with labor strike or. Of significance unrest are localized over economic reason credit to demand back pay or labor you and to happen so quickly within the first protest would ever spark that first one may have been orchestrated as an attempt to undermine president ruth connie and his reform agenda it morphed almost immediately into places all around the country, 24 cities then continued to mushroom. But also quickly moved from slogans focused on economic grievances to what could only be seen as very radical and deeply alienated slogan throughout the government. But this should be asking the government to respect the rules without anti Islamic Republic messaging. They cite different critiques or slogans but most will agree basically they are not asking for government reform. And for that in the past that has been going on. As part of the system in 2009 that was it. Asking where are my votes . But to say he is wise but for that movement they do not have a clear objective people that say they are not happy with the system. But i have not even heard 11 clear example. Especially major cities to identify with those professors we do not know what they want. Because of that situation there is some violence so for example a person this country for that reproach meant he is a former Game Show Host as you could imagine howard stern. [laughter] because they are desperate for change and those that dont want to be associated to have iran leading to become something similar. To take an vantage of peoples fear they have lack of security and in the early 20th century with chaos in the country people could not travel between cities and the shaw took over the country he established a certain rule on law that people were happy with for a long time. Then in 1853 they seem to be out of control. But at the moment to fear insecurity in the country and then to portray the demonstrators to be manipulated by outside forces. So lets talk more with those causes one of the thing most commentators have remarked that it does not appear to be upper middle class like the iranian version of Trump Country who have supported former president dominic shod on the dinner shod when a smaller class of country with those heavily religious cities. What do you make of that different geographic map . One of the most interesting features is the fact so many people know iran didnt know anybody as part of these protest. The numbers are different from this time around talking about 40,000 hooligans that is their estimate how many people have been participating in these protest even if it is off by a factor of ten it is still significantly smaller but it is still that question of deep alienation of people who are expected with the legitimacy of the Islamic Republic and consistently thought to enhance its legitimacy by talking about social justice with the disenfranchised or the with those Economic Policy through that revolutionary period. But if they lost that constituency and prepared to repudiate it has to be deeply unnerving and if we have a question if that is happening what is the next bar cow cannot be anticipated and then try to inoculate that comes back to the playbook. So that is what is coming out of iran today. And i was struck going back recommending there is a prepared quality almost from the beginning of the Green Movement for how they would communicate as the outside agitator. And to play a role in the bridging and for what had occurred. In two be directly what happened in 1997 with a pro reform candidate that took conservatives by surprise. That they saw any possibility of a peaceful change with the Supreme Leader. They will support him four years later and he became president. And the second four years so they tried to gather information to reform and with the paradigms especially former soviet union and to prevent that from happening again. That is why he saw the mass murder of the intellectuals because those that were interrogated at that time with the leaders of the movement. To get rid of that in the futur future. So the revolutionary guard prepared themselves for another wave of reformers. And at the same time they proved to be very ineffective and people became disappointed in reform that is why they wanted change because they voted for ahmadinejad in and the revolutionary guard had the scenario for its protest but that protesters are led by certain people who are directed by others so if i was arrested for example, may be 90 of my interrogation is not what i did but they wanted me to confess. They would ask me to keep the details and something that i had not even ever met. And they said other people are confessing and i was saved because of that but this time around i think the revolutionary guard and people in charge of the foundation support 10 million across the country many pride themselves to be in touch with the poor and many conservative leaders and religious leaders around the country as a result the revolutionary guard came up with the same theory about two or three nights ago. On Iranian Television and also going back opportunity to settle scores to say that ahmadinejad was involved they did not mention him by name but highranking former official. And then the revolutionary guard was interrogated two nights ago on Iranian Television that the americans sold the israeli plan and came up with the strange idea that each adr plays a role for american intelligence and it is supposed to be a messaging service. They are struggling. And with all of these slogans as well. And some of these will again almost four years after the revolution were in support of the shaw. I havent had a chance with the revolutionary guard but why do we have 40000 hooligans in the country . Except there are 40000. How come we have not been able to have anyone willing to risk their lives to be killed . What is the economic background . So as we have journalists that are struggling with questions the revolutionary guard themselves is also struggling the answer isnt easy because they protest that economic condition from the past 40 years. People have different types of grievances like one of the poorest areas i have ever been to and there are people who have lost their investments with banks and. Schemes in Financial Institutions so there are different layers of grievances. Right. Maybe they have to do with the revolutionary guard involvement as you know it isnt just the military force they have some of the biggest industrial contracts in the country. Some of the Biggest Industries or the companies are run by those institutions under direct supervision of the Supreme Leader and cannot be fully audited. And you can see the depth of corruption for the government that he himself admitted only one third of the budget is in my hands. He cannot do anything. But that is a good one to pick up on now he is perceived as a moderate with the nuclear deal for further reforms. One question that i have for both of you if we see rouhani coming up with that reform that is possible mentioning the soviet union or the collapse something to be avoided but i was thinking fatal half measures. Is that what we are looking at with rouhani . Because he is not able to deliver . What does this tell us about the future of reform . My theory very much what you just suggested. The last best attempt to moderate the Islamic Republic with an ongoing effort so that was even baked into the construct to have more moderate and representative institutions and authoritarian institutions that there has always been tension with a more moderate path and outcome for the Islamic Republic with the further domination and after the seizure of the embassy in 1979 and then the attempt at the end of the war to do as much as rouhani two reform the economy with a Reformist Movement in many ways is one of the most ambitious and optimistic reform attempts we have seen during a presidency seeking to emphasize that precept that does call for a rule of law and Representative Government be outflanked and what we have seen is a series of successive failures i was optimistic about rouhani thinking this could be a path forward to focus once again on economic reform and to engage with the world in a way to bring the rehabilitation partially and he succeeded to bring about the nuclear deal with no small accomplishment that ultimately he has run up against limits of what is possible because economic reform package is necessary if iran will create jobs to address in a quality that is such an obvious issue those are politically difficult Structural Reforms are long term changes but at the same time to attract Foreign Investment to overcome the problematic Business Environment it wasnt a transformation it was a transaction and didnt bring about an end. It was sold that way to iranian and one of the questions we will all be watching is to what extent were those expectations raised with the nuclear deal with this element that has been deeply alienating. But my guess is even if the protest dies down, rouhani challenges are greater than ever making Economic Reforms more difficult and then policy will loom large for investors maybe not in one month ago. The washington part of this narrative first of all how have we affected things so far mentioning the government has decided on this narrative as another cia plot which is usually a pretty good course but President Trump made a very decisive move on twitter to jump into the fray and here in washington weve had a debate about president obama not doing that. He said in your own tradition or inside your own family whether it is right to intervene publicly but President Trump just jumped right in. Did he handle that correctly . I think he handle that correctly. A lot of people dont like trump in the city and country but but to the protesters, 2009 or 2017 with Sexual Harassment the rush investigation, healthcare reform, none of those really matter. They want to hear from the president of the United States. It was disappointing for people not to hear from president obama 2009. I know he had his reasons didnt want to taint the reputation, but i think that is wrong because whether obama is quiet or vocal you cannot blame america for everything anymore. But in this case trump was correct and he retreated trumps tweet for the first time and he never thought he would do that so i think that was a cracked decision and i think by the hand of the month when there is an opportunity to renew some of those that is another Good Opportunity for President Trump. I tweeted this morning i have been asked the question several times what should america do . There are a few things that can be effective and one is to lift the travel they because that has created anger and disappointment with the American Government and it is unnecessary and it is wrong. The other is not to renew that waiver but as an organization under the direct control of the Supreme Leader is one of the main instruments of suppression. It isnt a Broadcasting Corporation but it is a whole audience and it is important to put sanctions on them. Also it is very important for the United States to condemn violence right it is wrong for the iranian government to suppress protesters or just asking for food or a better economy, even if they champion against the government they should be listened to and not suppressed. At the same time it is wrong for anyone to incite violence or ask people troy building