Museum, and also to all of you at home who are watching via cspan. We have this evening a wonderful presentation by lord browne, and then followed by discussion with professor Daniel Minisini of rice university. So without further ado im going to hand it over to lord browne come help me welcome john browne to houston. [applause] ladies and gentlemen, i want to thank the Houston Museum of Natural Science for inviting me, to spend some time this week. For someone who is on the boards of several museums and galleries, i have a deep appreciation for the role that institutions like this play in the local community and, indeed, in society more generally. As a window on the past and explainer of the present and a guide to the future, they are indispensable resources which go above and beyond what you can read in books. Houston is fortunate to have this place, and its a great pleasure to be here. As a natural scientist and subsequently an engineer, ive always sought to maintain a Broad Perspective by educating myself about the arts and being involved in cultural organizations that go beyond my core discipline. When i applied for scholarship to study physics at the university of cambridge in england, i had to submit an essay about something completely different to my main area of study. So i submitted a piece about the architecture of and i can explained later to anybody who is interested in what that actually means. With my first bonus check from bp, i bought a david hogg reprint, and as a more Senior Executive i served on the boards of organizations such as the Folger Shakespeare library in washington, d. C. , the british museum, and later the tate. Today it is one of the great joys of a portfolio crew to be able to spend even more time with such organizations. But theres always been something that has trouble to me. Me. Ive heard people assert again and again that arts and culture is the foundation of civilization. Great art is certainly essential for understanding the human condition. You only have to visit the chapel here in houston to appreciate just that. But in my view it is preceded by great engineering, which is the True Foundation on which civilization is built. And thats why i wrote make, think, imagine, to make the argument that engineering is the lifeblood of human progress. Today i want to tell you four stories which i encountered either while writing the book or while ive been talking about it after its publication. You can interpret them just as you wish, and i hope they spark a decent internal discussion with you. So my first story is about transcending the speed limits. A few months ago i gave a lecture at the Francis Creek institute where i am chairman of the board. Its one of europes major Biomedical Research hubs directed by a nobel prize waiter, and home to several more prizewinners. After my talk a researcher raised his hand and asked a question that made me think picky asked, are not humans just like e. Coli . [laughing] this question was about the way in which we grow and use natural resources. Because when you put e. Coli bacterium into a vat of fresh nutrients, a population grows, slowly at first, and then exponentially. After this rapid expansion, things go downhill rather quickly, as the bacteria battle it out for an ever dwindling pool of resources. In the 18th century Thomas Malthus made a similar point, arguing that human population growth is doomed to push us towards catastrophic competition, followed by decline. The 1950s the american geologist coined the term fake oil. We dont use it anymore, as he predicted the production would peak around the year 2010 tail off rapidly. The club of rome made similar predictions a few decades later as it talked about the limits to growth. But somehow all these predictions about the collapse of civilization have never, to pass. I have no doubt we face great challenges today, not least the unintended consequences of progress itself. Some of these challenges such as Antimicrobial Resistance and Climate Change have the potential to become existential threats, but we are not bacteria. Time and again engineers have used their ingenuity and imagination to overcome perceived limits, workaround restraints and Work Together to build a better world. Thats why the amount of oil the world uses per unit of gdp has fallen by onethird since 1985, as engineering has enabled us to do more for less. Its why texas is by a long margin the largest generator of cheap power from wind in the United States. And its why, using Carbon Dioxide could make the permian the lowest carbon source of oil in the world. This is a real progress, instigated by developments in climate science, accelerated by evoting consumer preferences, guided by a combination of Public Policy and market forces, but made possible by engineerin engineering. My second story is about unintended consequences. During the 1980s, the dominant u. S. Communications operator, at t, was broken up into several smaller companies. This was followed in the 1990s by the loosening of regulatory structures. This was all designed to open up the market and encourage competition. We can now look back and ask what all of this is actually achieved. Thanks to a series of reemerges, at t is bigger than it was before it was broken up. But when it comes to innovation, it has lost something. Bell labs, at ts r d powerhouse, was described by some as a nobel prize factory. Its not owned by the finnish firm nokia. Call it, practical knowhow and intellectual property have migrated overseas, particularly to europe and to china. The practical consequences of this are playing out today. American companies do not have any distinct competitive advantage in 5g. Instead, Companies Like erickson, nokia, the chinese firm wally are rolling out 5g mobile internet in many parts of asia and europe, setting new standards along the way. Unlike many Critical Technology that are dependent on people and companies resident in the u. S. , 5g can be and is being developed without u. S. Involvement. This would not matter if we live in a world underpinned by globalization, free trade and constructive dialogue about standards. But it does matter when were experiencing a technologically driven trade war, a major feature of which is deep suspicion of china. As a result, the u. S. Is at risk of falling behind. This matters because 5g is a step change. It will provide the speed and low latency needed by the self driving cars, robots and drones that will transform our economies. It will enable physicians to perform surgery on patients on the other side of the world using extended and tactile reality that enables them to see what is going on. And as i recently saw during a demonstration at the Wembley Stadium in london, 5g offer 360 degrees Sports Coverage in real time that will completely change the way we experience life sports. At best, technological and jew political standoff will slow the speed and breadth and depth of innovation. At worst it could reverse the globalization of engineered products. Many of you will remember having to carry three mobile phones when you went overseas. One for the u. S. , one for europe, and one for japan. Its my fear that we are headed down the same path today. My third story is about making a practical difference. On december 11, 1945, Alexander Fleming and two other men put on their bowties to receive a nobel prize for the research into penicillin. Whilst the ceremony unfolded in stockholm, a littleknown female chemical engineer called Margaret Hutchinson rousseau was at home looking after her young son. Hutchinson rousseau had broadly been written out of history, but shes the real star of the penicillin story. It was she who took a promising and highly unstable chemical substance and sold the significant engineering problems necessary solved to save more lives than any other. By the time of the Normandy Beach landing in june 1944, the allied forces had 2. 3 million doses of penicillin. A year later, production stood at 650 billion units a month, all thanks to her ingenuity and tenacity. For me the story demonstrates perfectly what engineering is about and why such a powerful force in our world. I think of engineering as being like the ancient roman god janus, who had two faces, one looking at the past and the other one looking at the future. In the case of engineering, one face looks to the fruits of scientific discovery, while the other looks to the needs of commerce, humanity and customers here the important bit happens in the middle where engineers and a great all that they see and come up with solutions. These are the tools and systems that we used to understand and shape our world. Time and time again engineers have applied their art to overcome seemingly impossible challenges. In the past 40 years they have driven a 2150 fold reduction in the cost of solar electricity, lithium batteries are on a similar learning curve. And i hope and expect that the same will happen with todays expensive Carbon Capture technology so that it becomes a cornerstone of our response to Climate Change. As Hutchinson Rousseau work shows us, so clearly, this is what engineering does. It takes tools that were once unattainable expensive and impractical, makes them available for everyone to use to make a practical difference in the world. Printed books, light bulbs, airplanes, automobiles and Artificial Intelligence algorithms all were written off in their time before going on to transform our world. My final story is about imagination. It takes place in the 19th century as engineers were building ever more efficient steam engines. The power produced by these machines was up ending the established social order, and building prosperity and opportunity that would eventually ripple through society. These engineering advances were also unleashing the imagination of some of the era was best scientists the french physicist took a particularly interest in these new engines, using what he saw to elucidate one of the fundamental principles of the universe. The second law of thermodynamics first formulated by him is what gives time its a row. States that the universe as a whole is always moving towards a fate of greater disorder. Many assume that Engineering Works in a linear way. All these translating ideas into practical products, but very often it works the other way, too. Only once the steam engine was made and working did he gain the inspiration to make is great imaginative leap. And thats why i call my book make, think, imagine in that order. The things we make fuel our creativity. Engineering allows us to imagine places we have never visited, times we have never lived in, and things that have not yet been built. Thats the job of business leaders, particularly in the energy industry, because the future can sometimes look difficult and uncertain. The needs and the vans of our customers are always changing. Oil demand is likely to peak within the next 20 years. Today, oil and Gas Companies represent the smallest portion of the s p 500 for the last 30 years. And as investors put their money elsewhere, they take it from oil and gas. And young, talented people much rather work in palo alto that in the permian basin. Theres no doubt that were going to rely on hydrocarbons for a very, very long time too. They account for 85 of our energy today, and will likely account for around 75 of a significantly larger base by 2040. The challenge for leaders is to build a future in which oil and gas still underpins human prosperity, but in which the climate is not at risk from unintended consequences. In other words, we need to take the carbon out of hydrocarbons. Thats something ive been trying to encourage people to do for several decades. In 1997, as ceo of bp, i became the first leader of a major oil and gas company to recognize the threat posed by Climate Change who pledged to do something about it. That was more than 20 years ago, and theres a huge amount still to do. I have some ideas about what action oil and Gas Companies might take today, and we can certainly discuss those things later. But for now let me if i may conclude with a quotation, probably my favorite quotation, from president abraham lincoln. Speaking at the end of 1862, he said, the dogmas of the quite past are inadequate to the stormy present. We must think anew, act a new era we must this in thrall ourselves. Thats a wonderful philosophy come one which ive always tried to follow. Because its not the job of leaders to administer the advent of the inevitable. Its their job to write the future. Its their job to imagine and then create the actions for tomorrow. This cant be done without the discipline of engineering, our ability to engineer is all that allows us to bring order to disorder. Engineering creates at ease and counter eddies in the relentless and chaotic flow of the universe, and we call them civilization. Engineering allows us to dream of a better world and then go out and make that vision into a reality. Without engineering it all comes apart and are fate is sealed like a glass full of bacteria. Thank you very much. [applause] lord browne, you are very welcome to houston. Thank you. And today we are going to talk about the book which lord browne wrote, and were going to discover what is inside and also try to uncover the mindset of the writer that we have with us. We will have a chance to read it but we will not have other chances to talk with him here, so take notes to write your question and to hammer it out later on so we can read it. Thanks for explaining the title, make, think, imagine in that order. My kids and said should have bn the opposite. Then the subtitle, engineering the future of civilization. The author john browne that you were just introduce as lord browne. We are not used to that title here in houston, lord what is the meaning of that title for you personally . Well, as a practical matter i am a permanent member of the second legislative house of the United Kingdom. You heard why in history, its appointed house, history goes back a very long way. It was the house of the barons that made sure that the king kept in order. We dont do that anymore. The king, the queen, while the head of state has no effective power, and neither actually does the house of lords with the single exception of being able to correct mistakes in legislation. But it doesnt do a very good job of promoting science, engineering and technology within the United Kingdom as well. So i would like to start on the very first page here, which is an indication, and it says to my father who told me to get a real job. [laughing] what was your relationship with your father . I had a great relationship with my father who i wanted to do Everything Different from what he had done in his life. So my family has a history of being he was a great soldier during the war, fought in the desert in north africa and amongst other places. And he eventually after being a professor or a long time joined the oil industry and was sent to iran where everyone spoke not arabic but farsi. Fortunately my father corrected the personal departments and i will learned before i i get th, and so we did. And i spent my teenage life around oil and gas wells, and i was determined i would never join in oil and gas company. [laughing] so we influenced your choice . Yes, he did. I went to university and i was determined to stay and do research in geophysics, at the time with some really great people who uncovered the mysteries of continental drift, from mccambridge, and then under pressure my father said you must get a job. I said it didnt want to, ive got it won already. He said thats not a real job. Go and get a real job. Do it for you, see if you like it. If you dont, the back to doing research at university. So ive been rather arrogantly went to bp. My father retired that bright day come and visit id like a job. And they said really . I said yes, for a year. [laughing] and then i said once more, i want to go to the United States because i really did actually want to leave the uk at the time. It was not good shape, and attitudes were very bad. This was in the 60s. So they suggest to that, too, and i imagined myself going to do some work around new york, or houston even. And the letter came, in those days they were written in pretty direct firm dear brown, thats how the h. R. Department would address people in those days, your posting to anchorage, alaska, if confirmed. [laughing] so off i went to anchorage, alaska, to become a training Petroleum Engineer to do not study to convert myself to an engineer and to work in the field night study drilling and testing wells in the prudhoe bay prudhoe bay high and in the proper high. And to live to Water Bottles north of the arctic circle, which i did for quite a little while. And it was very exciting. One year led to another, and after two years i said to the professor, i love it. He said stick with it. Very few people love what they are doing. Thats a good piece of advice. From your professor . From my professor, edward bullard. My father was vindicated with that was enough. So Good Relationship with your father. There are always conflict between a father and son. There are no conflict between a mother and son. I regard this as almost a rule of life. Your mother paula . Yes. In here you write the very first of the ten chapters, the ten commandments, you write that you were inspired by your mother, inspired to solve problems that others have not considered of and to help find Practical Solutions to humanities most pressing problems. So which pressing problems have you tried to solve . So i have t