Should the u. S. Role be as the unrest continues. This is about an hour and a half. [inaudible] so my name is patricia, im at the International Republican institute where we implement programs that are focused on responsive governance across the middle east and across the world, but i work on the middle east. So today we will talk about irans influence in the region and iraq in particular, in the context of ongoing demonstrations and how iran is working to destabilize iraq, as well as the evolution of u. S. Foreign policies towards iraqs government. First, i would introduce our distinguished panelists and provide some overarching remarks before turning it over for discussion. Your mic is not on. Can you is it on . Okay. Good now. So first to introduce our panelists, michael whom you all know is a senior fellow at hudson, a former Intelligence Officer with over 28 years of experience working on security, terrorism, Counter Insurgency in the middle east. Hes spent considerable time working on influence in iraq as an advisor embedded in the iranians are interfering. [laughter] the ambassador is an iraqi political activist whose cofounder and president of the iraq foundation, which is a Nonprofit Organization thats committed to the support and promotion of democracy and human rights. Weve got to get this we need technical help. Okay. Okay. Thats good . Thats better. From november, 2003 to march 2005 joins the Democratic Service representing iraq before the u. S. Government as iraq chief to the u. S. A senior fellow at sug he focuses on iran, iraq, terrorism and intelligence and a previous fellow at American Enterprise institute and the director of the middle east initiative at the new american center. Before i turn it over to our panelists and i hope the mic is working i wanted to make a few introductory remarks that hopefully will help frame the discussion today. First, my conviction is that to counter iranian hard power we need to dismantle iranian soft power and we need to understand the streams. In iraq, irans soft power is an overarching indigenous resistance against imperialist design and as a cover for the projects in iraq. Its success is largely due to the lack of a coherent alternative that exposes its contradictions and reveals the character. The alternatives can be based on a unified National Identity and this is something that the ambassador addressed. Iraqi needs to know the level by iranians, bit by bit, story by story by every institution and the cables are a start and this is something that michael will look at as well. For the last five weeks, more than 200,000 iraqis across the country have been protesting on any given day. Over 320 by the last count that i have seen, have been killed and over 15,000 wounded. The protesters are angry about corruption, about unemployment and also about irans influence. They include idealistic secular use and working class mainly from the south. I want to suggest that iraq, along with lebanon, is part of a developing revolt against efforts by iran to predict its powers throughout the middle east. It is time to listen to the protesters, to listen to what they want. To support their demands for a new social contract, developed for and by iraqis, rather than at the behest of the dominion. How do we do that. And what are the limits of iraqi nationalism in this context. How do we balance between the u. S. Is needed and there are legitimate reasons not to trust it. Turning it over first to rend. Iraqis have affirmed their desire to curb and reverse the growing iranian influence in the country. What are the prospects, the limits and the challenges of the reemergence of iraqi nationalism . Can iraqi nationalism break the formula that was artificially enforced after the invasion and enshrine a system of dividing power across ethnic and religious lines . Thank you, patricia. Thanks to the Hudson Institute for hosting this event and hosting me. What is really extraordinary about the protests and its now called the uprising, some people in iraq call it a revolution, a popular revolution, is first of all, that its sort of its in the south which is predominantly shia areas. And the thing that is really remarkable is the boldness of the protesters in the slowness that theyre raising against iranian influence. And against the Political Parties, including the militias, that are deemed to be supported and encouraged by iraq. And i say this is extraordinary because its actually very dangerous for those protesters. You dont openly rip down the poste posters, you doesnt rip down the posters of the shia militia leaders without fearing consequences, there are consequences. And this outbreak of resentment against iranian attempts against germany, as controlled, including, by the way, you spoke about soft parts, there is Enormous Economic control of iran and iraq and particularly in baghdad and the southern region. So this is something that has been suppressed for a very long time. We saw it in basra in the summer of 2018. But this year it has reemerged in a much more powerful way, much more explicitly and much more openly. This is really a turning point that shows what true sentiment is in the shia regions of iraq visavis iranian attempts at control and the region. Now the question is, this is a popular protest movement, but it hits again entrenched political interests that are tied to iran. And principally, interests that are exercised by militias who in theory and in print follow t the part of the Iraqi Armed Forces and come under the control of the commanderinchief who is the Prime Minister. In practice though, these militias are not under such control. They are outside the legal fold of the armed forces and they behave as they please. So we have seen the reaction by these militias against the antiiranian sentiment of the protesters. Sometimes it has been very brutal. The two have been in confrontation, theres no request he, because the protesters have torn down posters, theyve burned down the headquarters of the shia militia parties in a number of cities, in m basra and so on. From time to time we hear and see videos that clearly show the militia members from their own headquarters allegedly in selfdefense are shooting at the protesters who are trying to storm those offices and so on. So we really do have its not a sea change. What is a sea change is the open defiance that is expressed by the protesters. Either of you want to comment on this . Yeah, i would agree with all of that. I think its going to be very difficult for the iraqi political establishment to disengage itself from the iranian influence because its so intertwined. Its no secret to say and i think its hinted at and the New York Times intercepts expose, how deeply they are financially intertwined. Iran doesnt like to spend a lot of money in building up networks, but it does spend money and you can buy a lot in iraq. And so i think you always have to keep in the back of your mind, there is, there is some sense that, you know, iran is the last resort. It is sort of the shiite uncle who will come to your rescue if things really get unpleasant and i think for the rhes resuscitati resuscitation, and they have to become more confident and develop Greater National pride. As they do that, i think thats inevitable, then the tension with iran is inevitable because the truth is, is, you know, if you put iraqi, shia and the iranians in the same room, within a short period of time, the iranians will be acting, and it gets on your nerves. So all of these factors, i think, militate against longterm domination of the iraqi establishment, the iraqi political system. But in the shortterm i dont see a counterveiling force. The United States is not it. And that the iranians i dont see it reversing. Its largely a game among the iraqis and in between the iraqis and the iranians. To that point theyve lost in iraq and theyre trying to win it back, win it back for iraqis. Whats interesting about that is the lack of a u. S. Counter strategy is addressed by the iraqis. Its happening now. Theyre willing to push back against the status quo in baghdad with it their lives. Like you said, theyre willing to die with these things. There are ramifications for burning down the consulate. The militia headquarters and basically standing in the square and protesting against simple things, water, internet, and basically a future. Iraqis want to see less and less of a military, american, on the streets. Less and less of a diplomate. They want to see university professors, technocrats, private Sector Investment in iraq, they want a future. This is an opportunity for the United States to get iraq right by doing what the protesters want and that may be inaction, that may be nothing, but what they are asking for right now is International Support and theyre asking for the United States government not to support baghdad and thats something weve seen. A few weeks ago the u. S. Was supporting against the protesters and now it isnt. I got to sit in sideline meetings with the counterisis strategists and coalition, and the eu representatives in the counterisis strategy are in agreement, this is not the time to engage baghdad. Its not the time to give a lifeline to the government. Its a time to support the protesters. Who you do you that . Put a spotlight on it. International media. Do you know what the protesters want . As i understand they want Anderson Cooper in the square. They want International Media. Their complaint is, it shouldnt be okay to kill 326 iraqis in baghdad becauand not the world care. And theres a benchmark in syria. And they didnt kill lebanese in lebanon without losing iraq. And in iran. He cant call arabs in other places and some are saying that theyre now in iran. Theyre the Afghan Militia to deploy and they deployed to syria, up to 20,000 deployed to syria and they have almost 8,000 in casualties and now were hearing reports that theyre in baghdad and in small numbers, but the thing is, theyre there. And this is something that is very concerning, but all the iraqis are asking for is a media spotlight for the International Community to care and recent travels through the region, i just got back to the security conference in bahrain yesterday and everyones talking about the protests in iraq, lebanon and iran and theyre seeing the mismanagement of the economies in all three countries. It may not be necessarily against iran, but i would argue that it is because its the mismanagement of the economy in iran and the mismanagement in baghdad and in lebanon, all tied to the main influences in these countries. Well, we know what the influences, who the influences are in iran, but in iraq and in lebanon, its lebanese and in iraq its a coalition. The state of law, maliki state of law party paired up with the fatah party, led by solomanys guy. I get criticized by other thinktankers, youve talked about this the last four years. Yeah, you talk about these because you see it coming and its here and its an opportunity for the u. S. To get iraq right by simply doing two things. Its important here, i talked to an iraqi who knows this well earlier, this gentleman right here, and we talked about it. Everybody has blood on their hands in iraq, but iraqis are asking for the americans to help not their own government and theres an opportunity here. Well get into a lot of detail in the u. S. Role, but before we jump to that. I wanted to ask a followup question with regard to the differences, can we talk about the differences between baghdad and basra when it comes to nationalism and whats the risk of regionalism. Will we get basra saying this is a dynamic that. First of all, if i could backtrack a little bit. The figure of 320 was weeks a ago. There are recent figures of 450, unfortunately, we do not have anybody keeping track, statistics. Undoubtedly, the government is, ministry and of health and so on. Theyre not releasing numbers. And my estimate its over 450 now. And we should always, if we cite the 320 number we should always say this is weeks ago because one has to be realistic. Now, in terms of what can one do, i would add something, michael, its not just that they want Anderson Cooper, cnn, it is extraordinary that neither the u. N. Security council has taken up the issue. The u. N. Human Rights Council in geneva has not taken up the issue. Yes, weve had amnesty and human rights watch, but they are not International Bodies and i can tell you that a lot of the protesters are now talking about the need for international, multinational bodies to at least begin a process of accountability, of investigation because certainly the Iraqi Government isnt doing that and people are dying over day and i can tell you that the intensity of violence against protesters has actually increased just in the last week. I think there is now a push to completely quell the demonstrators. The demonstrators are sort of like the Irresistible Force meeting the immovable objects. The Irresistible Force being the protesters and the immovable object willing to go as far as it takes. Which means we want homeland. Its more like a patrimony. More like french picket something that you belong to, that you love, that you are proud of. And that you feel loyalty to. This is really what theyve been asking for because they havent had that in the last 16 years. One could argue they havent had that and that in the last 25 years or so and maybe even going back. But now iraqis want a homeland to which they feel a sense of belonging and of which they can feel proud. That called by the way has not been it has been constant. It has been throughout all the protests in all the areas. All the differences between baghdad and basra, and what does it look like . There are differences but mainly because basra feels far more deprived man in of the province in iraq, the Economic Situation and the situation services is far worse than it is in baghdad. And yet basra always maintains that this is a double injustice because it provides 90 of iraqs revenue. The province that contributes so much to iraqs budget gets extremely little in terms of services. And so there is an added grievance and basra. Before the protests there certainly was a sense of originalism, and there recalls for creating a region of basra similar to the kurdish region. With all the rights, the authorities, the sort of quasidependence that the kurdish region enjoys. Some people in basra, including politicians and professionals want to recreate the same thing in the province of basra. That originalism was a merchant. It hasnt emerged during these protests. If its there than it has been in a sense sort of the weight of the protests have submerged it. Whether it will reemerge afterwards isnt clear, but because theres this unifying call, demand of we want a patrimony, it may be a unifier in the long run, and it may actually be the alternative that we were saying that does not exist yet. It may become so. Before i turn it over to comments i want to follow up to desk about the of the sunnis who had been standing by presumably. The question being, what can be done to get the sunnis into this process and for them to be able to define these events as well . Yeah, this question is asked a lot. Well, its asked in a different way, why are the sunnis protesting . There are several reasons, one of them is when the sunnis pretested in 2012 and 2013, the backlash from the malady government, they shot them and kill them, and then they accused the protesters of being the conduit for isis, if you remember. [inaudible] they are rolled into one in the eyes of speedy just for emphasis. Baathists, and isis, yes. The sunnis are guilty until proven innocent. I do not want to come out and be accused again of reintroducing isis, reintroducing alshabaab. All the sunni provinces have just emerged from isis occupation. Their cities are devastated. Their communities are devastated. Its not just physically for such. The communities have been torn apart, crushed and, therefore, their sense of community, the ability to organize together is at least for the moment not there. And i would add a third sector. The shiite shiites are protestg because they consider the government in baghdad to be a shiite government. Which it is. Which it is. And, therefore, their level of expectation from their government are higher than the expectation of the sunnis, from this shiite government. So theres an imbalance expectation. The shiite feel, this is our government but what have they given us . They have robbed us. Its that exactly, inessential talking about shiite shiite. Its not shiite ship in terms of population. Its the shiite ovulation against Political Parties. I just wanted to jump in on that. Whats interesting also is that protesters, there are two myths here, to make things that when Prime Minister abadi with Prime Minister none of this would be happening. It would be happening under any Prime Minister as long as bad actors which will talk about later continue to have influence. The second thing is that shiite youth are not tied to him. People try to say this is a sign of movement. It was to show iraqis this is a guy we can move around. Weve been able to move them around. Whats interesting about this is the first time at a think what i talk to sunnis and kurds in iraq, they dont want a protest because when they took a legal stance in the kirkuk referendum, there met with military force. The sunnis were killed and nobody cared. This is that she had use for the first time 60 of the country is shia. 70 are under under the age of 30. One thing im hearing, i would like to post this to the ambassador, is they want a president ial system. They want to be able to elect somebody with the popular vote to be in charge. Ive been hearing this, they dont believe the Prime Minister needs to be