Issues during this difficult time. And as we face the challenges like this have never been more important during this covid19 pandemic. In these discussions will now begin printed as a reminder, we will be taking audience questions and will encourage you to submit yours located on the but not at the bottom of your screen. And it says, type in your question and we will try to get to it to the end of the broadcast. Todays briefing is from Victor Davis Hanson. Is a senior fellow here at the hoover institution. He focused his classics in the military and history. Author 24 books of the most recent, is been the National Humanities and the price, victor, youre a better man than i if i had that metal i would have it hanging around my neck 24 7. How are you. Victor very good. Host before we get into the policy side of things, a lot of us are watching this from Population Centers are in cities and suburbs and exurbs. What we know difference but in the past couple weeks, but is come to a standstill. Youre a fifth generation armor, but you right now are about 15 miles outside of fresno i think. Im curious as to what difference you note an Agricultural Community in this kind of situation. Victor i think there is a sense that life can go on and will go on because agriculture by definition is the at least the production side is solitary existence. And so what looking at out here, and looking down at a great vineyard or a plum ric trucks going by constantly, headed toward the coast, and the east coast even with chicken and eggs and beef. There is a sense that agriculture is very important and people are looking to make sure the food is delivered to people who are sheltered home. And that theres not as a great danger because of population density. Fresno county is a big county. It has over a Million People. 1. 2 million but weve only had a little 100 cases into debts. In the Rural Counties that in the near, kings county, karen county, they have far fewer cases per million residents and four fewer, so it is not the feeling that we are in battle thinking that we were at Stanford University before the shut down. Bill the year of 2020 over half of the americans to stay home, they been told by government whose essential who is not, people been told to keep their distance from each other. And theres no foreseeable end to this. The end of april or may be the end of may or june or july and who knows when. If you go back and look in a virus that struck the United States in 1957, the hong kong flu, with use of politically incorrect term back then. But the economy did not shut down in 1957 when we went through that strength. The elective 1918 victor, president woodrow wilson, he did not hold Daily Press Conferences to talk about the influenza epidemic. Commerce do not do spending bills and the economy did not come to a halt. Why are we doing things different in 2020 as opposed to six years ago. Victor were much more technological interconnecting population so we do it because we can do it printed im television, and the way that we are communicating over the internet right now. So people want instant information. We are much more affluent population where we all deal with dying in the late 80s. That was much more tragic society. The case of the socalled spanish flu, during a war which would kill about 50 Million People. 60 Million People. In the United States with about 120,000, to flu. And that was considered part of the tragic existence and people do not have control over the medical and hygienic and their economic circumstances to the degree that they feel that they do today. The results were more tragic. People were used to mark physical distance, im speaking, it is been in my family for 145 years. They have had a history and i grew up seeing my grandparents talking about the 1918 flu. I heard them. They quarantined themselves out here they were completely selfsufficient pretty than their own part in sewage and their own food and then just it grow by many of the very many places. There is not very many places to go then. And i remember the stories of my aunt, when out to swim ones in 1922 and she got polio and she ended up here in the corner and crippled and she stayed in this house and she died in 1980. And i remember the 1957 flu, i was for five years lofgren one of my first memories. When a chip in this house we had a humidifier. And we are all sort of told to breathe this error so we would not die. And i remember everybody thought that penicillin was a miracle drug so we had the dock and drove out in the car then we went out and we rolled up her sleeve and he gave us a shot. I dont know whether it help with the virus. A note did not help the virus but we felt that penicillin was still a magic drug. Bill todays just kind of come one after the other on the situation. I get up in the morning to have breakfast, i watch Governor Cuomo givest briefing great, i have a light lunch and then i see Governor Newsom give his briefing and then i have a snack and then i hear President Trump give his and the each day just goes on. And you will be disciplined in the society. Is there any model we should be looking out for how long a contract, especially country that values civi civil liberty d freedom. How long can we go on like this. Victor when we have been in similar situations, world war ii, fear member the japanese and the paranoia that came from judicious and liberal minded leaders like rural warren and fdr. They later regretted it but at the time there was a panic that was with the nation and we look back fondly at the productive history of World War Two that was not a sustainable situation they have that much of your gdp, devoted to military production. I can tell you that if this thing continues, the way it is charted by sylmar people the price will not just be economic, will be in human lives because youre already starting to see him out here, social rebounds. I can tell you that within my circumference, there are people who are opening for legal order shops out of the barn. An illegal Daycare Center right on the street. It are campaigns that are supposed to have to cut food and the serving food with people sitting down. And to talk to a lot of people from a lot of different varieties life and their attitude is sort of like 1950s, that was okay. It wasnt great but im not going to destroy my childrens livelihood on the basis of some and i will try to navigate around and their people when you go to the store here, the person is told one paper towel, one toilet paper, one hand cleanser in the market with two, its a dilemma because if i dont, or allow them to do it, the list let me charge them and i can get the money from them but if i say no on the one, they will just walk out with two. And its a minor misdemeanor that will not be prosecuted so there is already a frame of this society. They because were such a diverse country, and we have the same diversity as europe does, south dakota, louisiana, Central Valley is not San Francisco, new york is not north dakota or south dakota. We need to look be a little bit more flexible. To allow the states if not the counties to be a little bit more liberal in the way that they adjudicate the perceived danger to their subset population. Bill you mentioned models, the university of washington is been doing a model, they refine his today. Now suggesting that were going to hit a peak mortality number this sunday which is good news, that means we are coming to the hump in this thing. And will go downhill after that. But heres my question. This wonder two ways of looking at that either people can look at the have full thing that we the hampton we kept our distance and keeping this thing under control for people could look at this and say heres another example that is fake news. Lack of confidence. This should happen and it didnt. Which one will prevail the halffull or halfempty. Victor i hope it is halffull because there is logic to shut down. And at least some of the population is getting paid and you feel that this is a sustainable proposition to be and are not aware of the effects of other people, because you were closed in. And then you think that the numbers have to be ever increasingly more optimistic, you have to get not 2. 5 percent mortality rate but 1 percent or half of a percent are not going to go out and is 99. 8 percent and then that becomes a logic of its own. It drives realities. What i am worried about is we have to realize that it between the government coronavirus, it is between lives and lives were going to lose a lot of lives. Suicides, substance abuse, anxieties, doctors appoints, neglected surgeries. If we dont allow flexibility and with people. As far as the modeling goes, this is the first epidemic as i can think of when the modelers had no information whatsoever about the denominator. The number of people who actually have it. Excellent based on those who are ill. Or took the effort to go get tested. Most people believe that is a model itself. That is a tenth of the number of cases of actual cases. For caseload the mature royalty route rate, and what we started out now is 2. 5 and oh my gosh, its bound to go down when we have more data. People who have antibodies or inactive cases and even the numerator of the number of people who are dying, is subject to interpretation because a lot of people, physical issues and challenges are being listed as dying from the virus rather than with it and theres so much uncertainty. This reflected in the inability of the modelers to be correct. Running to have 2. 2 Million People die. I dont think the washington modelers would want to go back to their initial data. I dont think the modelers have convinced gavin newsom three weeks ago to say by the end of this month, 25 million californians will have a case of covid19. And given them a tour the routes, 1 million would die. I dont think mike in ohio, should have said on march 12, and he thought 100,000 people and an active case when in fact there were about hundred who have tested positive and maybe 500 might have found it rated but he said it was doubling every six days based on his commissioner or Health Directors modeling that would give us today, 24 days later, 1. 6 million ohioans and probably 40000 dead. I look at the statistics yesterday. They have over a little of 105,000 cases. So theres a downside to modeling. You have to be careful. If you make a model, it has consequences. And so far i am afraid that the media suggested that the consequences are always good because the vestments served to purposes. They know that what can happen and therefore, we little hysterical and take the necessary measures. But if its incorrect, i hadnt done it, it wouldnt have taken these measures and that if hes right, the instagram person who is accurate. The optimist suffers situation because the modelers exaggerating, the data is incomplete, hes found to be correct however mason yeah but its only because of the tests that most of people change their behavior the major optimistic assessment of possible. If he is wrong, given life and death, they say that the optimist will be murder because it wouldnt be this many dead because the view and the people were not cautious. Safety keep in mind the psychological landscape that these models are given. There are consequences when somebody tells western government the 2. 2 million americans are likely to die. That had a lot of ramifications. They did not do larger 1918 in 1957, im not saying we didnt have have the statistical knowledge to make these models for the data retrievable abilities that didnt have confidence that they were all knowing they didnt have computers and things like that so they were much more humble about their own data in the ramifications about public policy. Bill this virtual policy meaning with Victor Davis Hanson printed the former mayor of chicago and before that, bill clintons chief of staff initially said never let a serious crisis go to waste printed even watching government, watching what has been going on in congress, and what california has been doing statewide and locally, tell us what you think the government has done well in terms of this crisis but also in the way of civil liberties. Would you be concerned that maybe a state like rhode island which is very upset the new yorkers are driving through on the way to massachusetts. But we see a situation where maybe its okay to shut down the borders. How far do you think it was would push us. Victor i think anna cox right now. Because we reacted as we did after pearl harbor very rapidly to very difficult situation. In the Chinese Communist government lied about the nature of the birth of the virus, the transmission rate of the virus in the infectiousness of the virus, the spread of the virus, everything about the virus and those untruths were echoed by the World Health Organizations. So when we had the travel been on generally 31st of the World Health Organization, the Chinese Government said it because you cannot really transmit persontoperson. As a city couple weeks weeks earlier given all that, and given all of the cdcs test kits do not work. People were told to wear a mask and not to wear masks pretty getting to a point where were starting to emerge a consensus that what we are doing now, has reduced the infectiousness. But where we are at flux is this is not a sustainable situation. We will have to either have original both choice or people can modify the protocol or we have to realize that if we do not get the sentiment deep test, we have no idea of the degree of immunity. Civil go out and will start the infectious process again and will be able to justify the six or 7 trilliondollar hit in the economy and i guess on the rationale that they give us breathing time. We didnt get the hospitals overcrowded and we have the medical systems intact. For the second of the third of the fourth wave. Each time we shelter and space and then we dont get out, and we dont develop them will go out again and again, and the only rational i can see that is been given is that we are buying time. For either anecdotes or vaccinations. But its not a sustainable situation. The cost, effete think eventually eventually in terms of days rather than months, persuade people that we dont have a choice but to gradually be careful and wear masks, proper hygiene, dont go to a sports event but you need to get back to work. Bill youre listening to Victor Davis Hanson senior fellow at the institution. If you want to learn more about victors research. Please go to our website and that is hoover. Org www. Hoover. Org. Lets take some questions. To rights to victor my knowledge is where the economy sees the postwar room. Given the interpretation that were in a more. And with the historical role apply now predict. Victor i think it will. I think once we are in 1919 or 1946, or even after the war, there was a lot of research, like earlier on in my career that showed that all the pets to make appraisals that happens is 1 ounce, that it actually had a boom after the war. And i think the answer is people feel they survived something rated and they have been starved for social action or travel restaurant so then they indulged their appetites even to a degree beyond what they did before the crisis. In an economist can argue whether that makes up for the low or not. But there are also some criteria we should examine read we are reaching a point in the summer were going to have record low fuel prices. So driving, getting in a plane would be very cheap in a way that has ever been. Almost zero Interest Rate and can argue that we are making redistribution of money in their use due to three 4 percent and theyre getting zero now. The lost revenue is going to be given to people who borrow money but zero interest, but what ever view you take of it, it will be an economic stimulus and then we have the government, guess the logic is been that we have lost six or 7 trillion of liquidity both of the stock market and the loss of gdp. That was real money that despaired. Therefore, i could be so crude, neanderthal i can say they infused a cash into the system and they claim it will not be inflationary because were just replacing at least temporarily lost capital. But the point of all of that, went the answer is, there is going to be stimuli after this crisis that i think will really accelerate. And that what is very important is what was the situation before the crisis. There were a lot of people said, we had a second recession depression almost and 38 and 39 we had 16 percent on employment and negative gdp and it will be like that again. We are very worried. In our case, we created 7 million jobs when we moved 7 million jobs, and go back to the status and 2016 and 2017. So we had a Strong Economy and that was really important. Bill victor, variations on the same question, what is the relations going look like china moving forward. What will it look like a year or two from now. Victor chinas success was built on the following assumptions that they were going to outsource labor, you could outsource real labor to china and they were going to produce quality merchandise in a manner that is consistent with norms and world mercantile trade protocols. When they did not do that with dog food or drywall or Pharmaceuticals People said will that was an abuse or an aberration but did not endanger the paradigm. There was a naive person that said, we can outsource our pharmaceutical industry to china because the richer it becomes, it will become more liberalized. We have 360,000 students in the United States, we have 20000 people flying in friday. Theyre becoming liberalized and that someday, shanghai and beijing will look like paris and San Francisco. Thats inevitable. W liberal minded. That will not happen. In the reputation of the china, is destroyed and now i think the general global perception is when is the next wuhan virus coronavirus number, but three coming out of wuhan and when will they get nine or ten hours to