Transcripts For CSPAN2 Campaign 2020 Aspen Institute Discuss

CSPAN2 Campaign 2020 Aspen Institute Discussion On Contested Election Preparations July 12, 2024

This is to say the least, no ordinary election year. In october is already proven to be in calendar of surprises. As a reminder as we countdown to election day, their facing record levels and male in voting. Concerns about the United States Postal Services and confusion about top boxes. Polling places, limited capacity due to the pandemic and allegations about balance being lost and stolen. And as of last night, questions about what happens if one or more candidates is incapacitated. But its important to us to remember that only three days ago, led to any of us seems like months ago. The president once again alleged to a National Audience and with no evidence that the voting leads to fraud. He also refused to say that he will access the results of the election. Except. I think for a nation when we are bracing ourselves for what happens when the polls close on november 3rd. Although it is important to say and we say this often that in none of it self is does not indicate that the results are illegitimate. May be useful to learning the results hours after the polls closed. All all likelihood there would not happen this year and that is okay. So how does this all work exactly. What is the law. What is the constitution say and where does the constitution silent freighted that is what is today is about. We are very lucky to have for experts who will turn the light on what to expect and what to prepare for once the polls close on november 3rd. The plan is that we will have briefings and we will have questions from you. Elections and the determinations of who is the next president. Nathaniel is the james d professor of law at stanford law school. His scholarship and Legal Practice focuses on american law addressing issues like Voting Rights, political parties, campaignfinance, redistricting and information raise the codirector of the Stanford Policy Center in the program own democracy and the internet and social science. Thanks for being with us. Steaming thing so much for having me. And i should add to that long introduction, one other project which is the healthy election projects we start with mit. You can get some of our material at healthy election. Org fluting some of what we will be talking about today. Im going to pick jack with Powerpoint Presentation in my seven minutes. As i make that transition, let me start by reflecting on the news of the last 12 hours and how it has an impact on thinking about contested elections and everything that we are going to be talking about in the session. Which is that in addition to all of the other questions we are now going to deal with, we also have to talk about what happens if the candidate hes to be replaced whether its President Trump or Vice President biden, and there are procedures in place for this in the event there is a reason that the candidate even after the ballots have been printed, need to be replaced the rnc and the dnc have procedures that are in place to do that. Such that then when the election happens those will go to the replacement candidate. In addition if the replacement happens after the vote then sorted the constitutional machinery with operation and we have to deal the question of how the state legislatures might direct the president ial electors for each state. That is an issue people are thinking about already this election. Different states are more or less in a position to do that. Some of these states have laws require electors to vote for certain candidate and received the votes. There is no potential legal ambiguity there. Ill talk about more that the questionandanswer period the way we thought about this at least 24 hours ago, and how to think about how a contested election in this environment. So lets start just a little bit with the calendar and how we should think about each phase of the resolution process so we will have an election day on november 3. But we have the voting has already been begun, millions of votes have been cast. We should expect roughly half. [inaudible] in two weeks later there are various deadlines for the receipt of ballots. At the expiration for disputed ballots, for example different states have very different rules on this. Some states will not allow voters to cure defects in the ballots. For example of the signature does not match with what is on file, or if there are other technical problems with it and other states give you several days to cure those defects that will all happen in the first two weeks after the election. Followed by a period for me of canvassing of the ballots was certification. The camps he begins earlier than november 17. But the deadline to complete the actual count of the ballots go into the beginning of december. The reason we have to get it done by approximately at date. I want to put an truck on december 3 because there is some possible wiggle room here. Under the elect oriole act which is the statute that governs president ial elections passed by congress, theres a safe harbor deadline that was quite important that does not mean the votes are not completely counted by that date state will not have collectors count. The law says that they do have it counted by that date. Go to the Electoral College. None between december 14 and generate 26, we have sort of a presumptive list of electors from every state. Maybe one list, maybe more than one list, depending on the controversy. The certificates are open on january 6. At each stage of the process make the slides publicly available. Is that the nature of litigation and this election, postelection litigation will be determined by 700 several pack trim factors. The margin of victory at any given stage of the most important question. So although it is possible well be going into overtime in this election, we have to prepare for that possibility. It is certainly not guaranteed. It is possible we will know very soon after the election who won and who lost. Again, we should prepare ourselves and prepare the public for long counting. Its very possible we will know soon after Election Night. When depending on the nature of the dispute the litigation will take different forms. Whether its a dispute over absentee ballots, or provisional ballots, recount like this on the florida election. That depending on the nature of the dispute, different sort of triggers will be pulled. That are the nontraditional things to avert these risks and some speakers will discuss them is what happens if theres violence in Public Places . This unprecedented use of Public Authority . There problems with the post office that makes them unable to deliver the mail, about. Right . Depending on the nature of the dispute on the different deadlines may be shifted. And by form are we talk about the result in state court . Or federal court . Is through the administrative process. You may remember in the florida recount, right, theres a lot of administrative work pretty member and of state was in charge of that. But obviously theres a lot of work happening at the local canvassing boards and proceed to the state system. Different actors become more or less important different stages. And so, let me just run through quickly put anothers a lot of text. I will make these available to people who request them. Theres a lot of litigation already. There are over 300 cases that have been filed in this election already. They are going to set the tone for what comes after words. Well take particular attention to the pennsylvania case its potential in its way to the Supreme Court and how that might lay the groundwork for later litigation. If youre interested, we have a litigation tracker at healthy elections. Org which shows all of the cases and how they are progressing freights back on election day we will have lawsuits. Even in that matter while the voting is occurring in the few days before, in the weeks befor before. We should not be surprised at this litigation over polling place dysfunction or potentially violence with respect to poll watchers and the like. But then in the immediate aftermath, as i have said, i depends who is ahead, by how much, with the nature of the dispute is. I want to emphasize that although we will have a flood of absentee ballots in this election, states have rules to adjudicate and evaluate these ballots. We need to let the state processes work themselves out. Until most of the action will start in the state and local canvassing boards, right . Im potentially end up in state court and the like. It is possible that depending on the nature of the dispute you could have federal court action to protect the right to vote allegations that the election has been marked by fraud. In that week or two after the election, right, will see the processing head of the mail ballots. Some of these issues regarding the curing of absentee ballots could be litigated. And as result bush versus gore itself litigation of the rules itself that would apply in the counting. Then if it remains close and of course that is a big if, as we approach the safe harbor deadline becomes extremely important that the recount is for the actual count be completed so that the electors can meet in the Electoral College. Now we assume because we went through for a term bush versus gore which is not that long ago but many of my students were not even born yet, that we would file a bush versus gore path. They would get involved it will be very judicial eyes process. And then its possible, it is possible that we will have litigation and end up in the Supreme Court. These might be actively involve involved. But with the death of Justice Ginsburg things become a bit more complicated. Depending on the split with the court. There are other tas that shake other aspects of the constitutional machinery. Such as a state legislature coming in twopoint electors. There is a considerable dispute i would say over whether legislatures can ignore the will of the voters of the voters express their preferences on election day and it is clear who they voted for. But under a scenario in which the candidates are going about fraud and they sort of try to say there is a cloud over the results, it is possible you could see different coming from the state legislature and the governor of each state that he would have to be resolved by the House Speaker of representative representatives. I want to emphasize of the state legislature somehow averted the will of the voter, that would raise all kinds of other constitutional problems with respect to violent the right to vote. But weve really been in that situation. And with the possibility cant replacement you could see them exercising that right. I will just end with what happened in the succeeding. My generous sixers accounts on the floor of the house of the representatives. And generally 20th is when a new president is sworn in. And if no president has been chosen by that point, then the succession act gifts into place as the 20th amendment s and the speaker of the House Speaker of representatives becomes president. I will end up there and turn it over to my other colleagues. Stomach nay, thank you so much. First of all to everybody weve seen some questions and can you share the presentation, we realize it mightve been a little hard to read it was in presenter view. We will share the slides, nay will share his twitter feed, we will have it to join our twitter feed and we will also email it to you for the answers yes tricked up for this a lot of questions for nay we will get to nay. Important start with what does the constitution say, what is known what is unknown . So thank you for that, nay. Were now going to turn it over to talking about how the news media works in these instances as a reminder, the news media does not pull an election, they projected election. Although sometimes there is sometimes wording in some of these organizations they play a little fast and loose. It is really just the norm and something we are used to. Because the results have been so clear, its possible it wont be the case this year end thats white so important to start with everything that nay just talked about. But lets turn it over to the news media because thats generally how we find out what is happening in the world. Which is a good thing. Here details how works is sally busby, she is the senior vp and editor of the Associated Press. She oversees global news operation and news content from journalist based in 250 locations around the world. She let aps coverage of the president ial campaign of election including polling and coverage of the white house, congress, and the pentagon. Sally over to you, thank you for joining us. Thanks so much and welcome everyone. What im going to do is talk about how News Organizations fit into that structure, that constitutional structure that nay just laid out. Including our key role in projecting elections and counting vote on Election Night. First sort of important over the u. S. Election system is very decentralized. It is no federal agency that oversees voting. The state each control how their elections are run. I am practice that is led to wide variety of practices in Different Levels of skill in writing election. So on Election Night states report to the republic their Election Results as a result come in. But my organization, the ap and other organizations to establish all those results, gather them from each of the 50 states and put them together cleanly so that the public can see the whole picture on Election Night. The Electoral College does not meet for a very long time. And then based on that, as the vote comes in we say whos going to win the election but we realize we are not the official word in the country. But what we do is we do have very strong mathematical calculation based on the vote count. And when a trailing candidate has no path to catch up or win mathematically, we tell the public that person has won that race or that state or Something Like that. The networks also all do this. Each of us do it independently. For the record our methodology for doing that is only out of full transparency at our websit website ap. Org. That total works. Its not decided by popular vot vote. Its how the president s viewed. This in fact is white News Organizations are focused the Founding Fathers set up are in fact more critical and others are less critical. Theres more impact at the margin of others in that sweet set up whether we like it or not. For example if a candidate beats another cannot buy 100 votes in the state of florida, they get all of floridas electoral vote votes. That is with the most critical things to keep in mind when youre looking at News Coverage on Election Night. So thirdly very important, as early mail in voting has been growing strongly in the United States for years, go 42 of americans who voted in 2006 seen the president ial race just did so either by voting earlier voting by mail. They did not show up at the polls on election day. That was before the pandemic. The vast majority happen without any fraud. So without that with the pandemic they want to vote by mail. Some are having to ramp up quickly for that summer ready summer trying to get ready. I will say as a News Organization, we found that states got better at handling mail in dallas is a primaries went on in the summer and fall. Theres evidence theyre getting on top of it. Meanwhile, as nay said theres already Legislature Making glassman changes over the rules, things like how long after election issued a mail and validly counted . Much of that is the subject of intense political battles. One thing is very important to keep in mind, and general mistakes, not all but most can count mail about sprayed sometimes that can be days after election day. This has happened routinely over the last two years. It is not something new. On why my going through all this . The reason is to point out that a lack speed on Election Night and News Organization calling races does not mean something bad is happening. It is not equal corruption or problems necessarily. It might affect just mean a state is being careful to count all of its mail in ballots. Maybe its struggling with more than that theyve had in the past. That does not mean they wont eventually actively count them. We and other organization july fact checked about what the president said a mail in balloting. It really does not track with the reality and the accuracy of what we seen happen. So from a perspective as ive said, with the new org intro News Organizations do on Election Night, we cannot project winners, call races until someone has mathematically one or they have no path to victory. They have an automatic recount. So if someones ahead than automatic recount is triggered at a certain level, were not going to call that race because where theres an recount its going to happen. So states are going slower than normal accounting bells because they are trying to grapple with this new world, that will infect lightly impacts how fast race by the networks and by the Associated Press goes on Election Night. We do intend to be transparent on Election Night, that is one of the things that thing is most important. If we have said that his state is not a race or we have not projected a winner in a state will go on air. We will go to the people who would do our reporting to, to our customers to the public and explain why that is so. We will tell the public what is going on in realtime. If there is this vacuum were a winner is not clear. So that is one big chunk of the situation the show that i

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