And were back this week. Bar we continue the washington with journals series on battlegrount states with this election this Election Year with ged political reporters and analysts on the ground. Were examine whats changed since 2016, what issues are motivating voters this year and take a look at recent Political Trends that could give us clues on how the state might vote in. November. We talked about wisconsin. Today florida. At nor and then pennsylvania on wednesday. On thursday, well take a look at north carolina, then friday , michigan and saturday arizona. Today our focus is florida and joining us is rick, director of the Public Policy institute at jacksonville university. Ound lets begin with what makes florida a battleground state. F d it is the big prize, the path of the white house is through the l state of florida. Its 29 electoral votes. If you look at the four biggest in the country, we already know that california with the big prize of 55 is going to go to joe biden, texas with 38 is going to go to donald trump. New york and florida both have 29 electoral votes and the 29 in new york will be going to joe biden. So the 29 electoral votes in florida is a big prize. Second, florida is a purple state. It can go either way. Twice it voted in favor of barack obama. Twice george bush. It elected bill clinton and last time by a narrow margin, donald trump. The history of florida is one in which its close, its hard to predict, its very consequential and for donald trump in particular, its in the mustwin category. If he wants to be president , he really does have to win florida. For joe biden, there are other possibilities. Joe biden would love to win florida. If we does, most likely, hes the next president of the United States. Why does President Trump have to win florida and where and where does he have to win in florida . Its the electoral map, really. In part i just mentioned it because of the big states. California going for joe biden, texas, illinois, new jersey. A lot of the big states. When you look at the battleground states, its mathematically possible for President Trump to win if he loses florida, but he would have to sweep, pennsylvania, wisconsin, michigan and pick up New Hampshire or another state along the way. It would be challenging for him to do that. For donald trump right now, i would say this if you look at the real clear politics averages, 1. 7 favoring joe biden, it really is a dead heat here in florida. Its going to come down to turnout. President trump knows he has to win florida. Hes dedicating resources here. Youre going to see an effort to do that. What hes going to have to do is to maintain what has been an historic cuban americans versus puerto rico population in central florida. Donald trump this time around is doing very, very well with the hispanic vote. Hes not doing quite as well in the suburbs. Florida reflects much of the country when you look at how the urban areas tend to favor joe bidens. The suburban areas are a place where donald trump did well last time and the rural areas favoring donald trump. This time around, joe biden is making inroads into those suburban areas with College Educated white voters. Donald trump is going to need to do well in that suburban area. Hes going to have to maintain that lead with hispanic votes. Joe biden is also making some inroads into seniors and donald trump is fighting that. So look for this to be very, very close. As you noted, the president eked out a victory in 2016. Where did he win in the state of florida and can he repeat in those areas . If donald trump wins this time, i believe its going to look a little bit different than last time. Last time, Hillary Clinton went by the playbook and she did really well in big, urban areas such as miamidade, such as broward, the big markets, orlando, tampa. And she should have done well and taken the state, but donald trump last time did extraordinarily well in the suburbs and the rural areas. Remember this, the state of florida is made up of 67 counties. Its a very big state. Over 21 Million People in the state of florida. So just because you take the big five or six biggest markets, its still a very big, big state. Last time, donald trump was dominant in the suburban counties. He was dominant in the rural areas. Here in north florida, while its close and i think we should talk about it, its a county to keep an eye on, two of the surrounding counties, 93,000 vote plus margin for donald trump in those suburban counties alone. His margin of victory was 113,000 out of over 8 million cast wins by 1 . This time around i believe its going to be a little bit different. He has an increase in support in the hispanic vote, a little bit of a challenge in the suburban areas. Joe biden is starting to make an inroad in seniors. So this is a dead heat in florida, very hard fought. It will be very, very close. Were showing our viewers a map of florida. Where are those counties that you just mentioned in the state. I just mentioned duval county. When you look at the state of florida, generally speaking, people feel that the north is more conservative. Theres some truth to that. And the center of the state because of interstate 4 running from orlando to tamp a is the battleground area. And then south florida with miamidade and broward end, more liberal where the votes are. If you look at it closely, in north florida, its the panhandle that is the most conservative and if you look at those counties where pensacola is and out west, youre going to see strong support for donald trump. Northeast florida, of course, theres duval county. Its a big urban city, of course. Last time, donald trump took duval by 6,000 votes. That was a surprise to many people. That the republican here had had such a narrow, narrow margin. Two years ago in 2018, when ron desantis was running for governor against Andrew Gillum. Andrew gillum took the majority here in duval county. And when rick scott was running for senate, bill nelson had typical majority here. So dont be surprised 42 days from now if joe biden carries duval county. That could happen. But be shocked and dont expect him to carry the surrounding counties. All of those will go for donald trump and they will go for donald trump in big numbers. As you move more to the center of the state, Orange County which is orlando, that has become a shifting battleground. That goes thats hard fought in that area. Youve seen a great deal of immigration there which is more liberal and democratic. At the western end of i4 is a county that donald trump surprised people by carrying the last time. And thats a good one to keep an eye on this time. If donald trump were to win this time, that would be a good sign for his campaign. Unlikely that he will, but if he does, that will be a good sign for him. As you move south in the state of florida on the Southeast Side with miamidade and broward, those are big population centers. Also a very big and a very passionate Hispanic Community and on the southwest side of the state, more conservative. The state breaks down geographically. The northern more conservative. The further south you go, the further north you get in terms of ideology and thinking. The battleground state and the south, a bit more liberal. A very diverse state. With all of that, we want to invite our viewers to call in about the battleground state of florida. Weve divided the lines by support for the candidates. If youre supporting the biden harris ticket, 2027488000, trump pence, 2027488001. Richard, on Election Night, if joe biden wins the duval county, do you think he then wins the state of florida . Not necessarily. In fact, i expect him i think theres a good chance he carries florida. That does not mean that he carries duval county. But florida is too close to call. Look at duval county, look at the margin of joe bidens victory in miamidade and hillsborodown. Its so close here in florida, its really hard to come up with these bright lines. Give you an example of how close it can be. Two years ago, in the governors race, ron desantis and Andrew Gillum, the polling showed that Andrew Gillum was going to win. That was the day before the election. And desantis won. It went to an automatic machine recount. Rick scott was in a battle with bill nelson, very popular senator. The day before the election outside the margin of error, the polling showed that bill nelson was going to win. Rick scott won by 10,000 votes and it went to a mandatory recount. Its hard to come up with a bright line because its a big state and it tends to be so close. On Election Night, will we know who won the state of florida . I think so, by the way, i think this is really important. Theres a lot of discussion in the country going on right now about will we know who the president is going to be on Election Night. Part of that conversation, of course, is because of mailin ballots, a large number due to covid19, because of a lot of absentees, a lot of mailin ballots coming in. And because of that counting, theres concern that we wont know on Election Night and it could go on for a long, long time. In florida i believe you will know the results by midnight. Theres a well developed system here, in part as the result of what happened in 2000 and you can begin counting the boavotes soon as you receive them in florida. Florida has developed more a better system since 2000. We can talk about what happened then. As a result of that, i do think you will know the results in florida, hopefully by midnight. But you will know on Election Night. If joe biden wins on Election Night in florida, he is most likely going to be the next president of the United States. If donald trump wins in florida on Election Night, its game on and were going to have to see what happens in some of those other states and it will be very, very close in the outcome. Lets get to calls. Renae in michigan supporting the president , good morning to you. Caller good morning, how are you . Good morning. Caller good morning. Go ahead with your question or comment. Caller i just want to say that i support President Trump wholly and i think florida is very important and im from michigan and just like michigan we have different demographics. And the larger cities where they generally like the inner cities that vote democratic and are starting to switch because of the good that President Trump has done just in the last four years. The caller makes a good point. Michigan, which well be talking about later this week, is an incredibly important state. Last time, 10,000 votes decided the state. One of the things about michigan and florida is the black vote. One of the keys for joe biden is can he turn out that vote particularly in michigan. You saw there were historic numbers in michigan and florida for barack obama. They did not turn out as much for Hillary Clinton. One of the things to keep an eye on is the turnout in the Africanamerican Community in florida and michigan. What about the demographics of the state of florida and how they tend you touched on it a little bit. But the other populations there and how they tend to vote. Certainly the Africanamerican Community is very strong democratic. But make no mistake, there were some inroads by ron desantis this is a little subtle what happened here. But i think its worth mentioning. At the rnc, the Republican Convention, on all four nights, you heard speakers bringing up education policy and their support for choice and for charter schools. In part, that plays very well with the black community in florida. And some believe it helped ron desantis become elected governor. While the black community in florida is going to very heavily go for joe biden, what donald trump wants to do is make inroads into that community and what joe biden wants to do is to turn out that vote. In the Hispanic Community, of course Hillary Clinton took it by wide margins. But expect do not expect the same margin for joe biden this time. Donald trump is doing well in south florida and particularly with cuban americans, venezuelans. The Trump Campaign has done a good job in defining joe biden and the Democratic Party as socialism, concerns over socialism. Theyre concerned. And so that vote is appearing to trend towards donald trump. As i mentioned earlier, its not monolithic, of course, in the Hispanic Community. And so the Puerto Rico Community with increasing numbers in central florida, you could see that and you are seeing that go heavily to joe biden. Which is one of the reasons last week joe biden made his first trip to florida and he went to tampa. Thats an area he was courting the Puerto Rican Community in central florida. Seniors are a big part of the vote and they vote. They show up and vote. On their minds, Social Security, medicare, covid19, and so that is a big part of donald trump took them four years ago. Joe biden making some inroads into that community this year. And so among collegeeducated whites, joe biden doing well. Among noneducated whites, donald trump doing well. As i said earlier, joe biden in the urban areas, donald trump in the rural areas, edge to donald trump in the suburb areas, but a battle going on there. Lets go to maria in new jersey supporting the former Vice President. Caller good morning, people. Im very hopeful that biden will win. We fear that the republicans and the Supreme Court nominee, they will cause mayhem and turn it around as it did in the bush gore. I find that republicans are very ruthless. They are relentless. We see new jersey, unfortunately, turning into a ghetto. People are losing their jobs. Theyre losing their homes. The woman who spoke earlier against the democrats, were not evil people. I fear that the republicans are not thinking straight. All they care about is their money. We fear that, again, we will see a turn a wrong turn as they did with bush and gore. I still believe in a gore won. Because of republican Supreme Court mostly, they overturned the winning to their favor. And we all saw what happened when bush, the economic collapse came and they blamed it on president obama. People have to get out and vote. Thats all i can say. Vote as your life depends on it. Okay. Richard . Maria raises some concerns that i think a lot of people have in the country and let me say this, i say this as a biased floridian and i say this as someone who back in 2000 it seems like it was yesterday, but through a quirk in our charter, i was both on the canvassing boardcertifi board for the bush gore recount. Its 36 days i will never forget. And there certainly were a number of reforms that took place. Its stunning for those who dont remember that period. But at the end of the election, on Election Night, actually, purchase was up by about 1700 votes. We did a mandatory recount because it was within the half percent margin of area and votes swung towards bush. That happened statewide. Ten days later, the absentees came in and thats relevant this year. By that time, bushs lead has increased some. Over the next 36 days there were manual recounts, cherry picking going on, there was litigation in the florida Supreme Court and bush always maintained a lead. When the u. S. Supreme court ended, he won by a margin of 537 votes which proves that every vote counts. In 2001, reforms were instituted in florida, we came up with a tenpoint plan ourselves that we supersized sup supervised. Florida has come a long kay. I want the country to have confident in the results in florida. I have confidence its going to go well. We had a test run two years ago when you had a mandatory we count with Governor Desantis and a manual recount with senator rick scott. It is a big state. And, by the way, over 5 million absentees have been requested in florida. Historic numbers. Last time, over 9 Million People voted. This time it could go 11 or 12 million. The volume will be enormous and contentious. But i want maria and others to have confidence in the outcome. Its important that there be confidence in the outcome. I know the supervisor of elections in jacksonville, i think of the 67 counties in the state of florida, those supervisors are working very hard for a result that has integrity that you can count on and i want people, regardless of who wins, joe biden or donald trump, to have confidence in that outcome. But it is hard if we have 11 or 12 million votes cast, and that could happen this time, when it comes down to less than 1 , which could happen this time too. Im hopeful that youre going to see a result in florida that you should have confidence in. Some strategists are saying if the president picks Barbara Lagoa as has nominee, that would help him win the state of florida. Do you prescribe to that . Is this vacancy and his pick that big of a deal in the state . Let me answer that very directly. I dont know. From what i hear, of course, the president has narrowed it down to dtwo, one is judge Amy Coney Barrett and we had the privilege of hosting her four years ago, about this time, five days before the election. She was number one in her class in notre dame, clerked for justice scalia. Went on to be a professor at notre dame and she wooed the crowd here at jacksonville university. Very im