Welcome to the clifton park halfmoon public library. Were very pleased today have david with us this morning to talk about the book 1948 Harry Trumans improbable victory. He is the author of a number of books. He has been here to talk about his books of the past. 1920, the year of six president s, lbj versus jfk versus nixon. Also ted williams my life in pictures. He also produced a documentary called local heros capital baseball diamond heros. Portraits of candidates and the even handed aprald of truman. It is one of the best at leading. After three straight home runs, i think this is the undisputed champion on chronicling american president ial campaigns. He is the recipient of the excellent of letters and arts award from the university of albany. Information to president ial biographies and elections, he is a member of s. A. B. R. A. , the baseball historian organization. He is a k. C. Winning judge and jury and edgar award finalist. Thank you, it is great to be back here again. People ask me why did you write this book . And americans claim to hate politics. But we love elections. We love sports. My sports background, your sports background. We love the competition, we love the 162game series. And things going down to the 7th game of the world series. We love the home run, we love bill buckner and mookie wilson. In 1948 it is one of those moment elections. This is when the under dog comes back and pulls it out when everyone has written them off. That is the improbable victory. That is the year, that is the election that was, the great ic iconic come back, the great surprise, when the pun donts are proving so spectacularly wrong. That is another thing we love. We love to be smarter than all of the guys you see and writing the newspaper columns. The only president of the 20th century that didnt go on to college. Not the only one since. Not the last one, the only one, you would have to go back to Andrew Johnson to find such a common man. And not just a common man, but a fellow who has been a failure at business. His famed shop in downtown kansas city. He goes bust, and he pays all of the debts off for 20 years. He has a standard of honor. And it marks him in his earlier political career where he is the product, and known for really most of his active political career as being the product of one of americas most spe spectacularly corrupt careers. He gets whooped and harry truman is the product of this machine in kansas city. He is the head of the county government for them. They steel millions and millions of collars. Harry truman never takes a dime. He has to wink at what goes on in some cases. He would sit down and power out his soul in private letters that he never sent to anyone. As he would wrestle with these questions. Am i a Public Servant or a crook. He is didnt with this, and he stays in the machine, and he decides to get out of local government and he wants to be a congressman. He is such a puppet, a nobody, even at that time that its like no, harry, you cant be a congressm congressman. Sorry, this is making noise. There you go. We now return to our regularly scheduled programming. So, the machine cant find anyone to run for the United States senate in 1934. You think they could. It would be a democratic year. And then disaster strikes. 1939. Good friday, they go to the federal pend for construction. And people say well, that is the end of harry truman now. His mentor is finished. He faces a threeway primary and wins. He goes to all of the small towns, courthouses, and every other place he knows in missouri and he wows them. He pulls it off. And that is a havebvaluable les. But he is still back in the senate. Who is he . He is given an assignment. Defense contracting things to win the war against hitler. Are we giving them their bank for their sfwhuk he delivers a report that no, were not. Our boys are fighting and dieing and we have to stop it, and here is how. People say gee, whiz. He did that intelligently, honestly, and in a nonpartisan manner. Maybe there is something to this guy. That takes us to 1944. Frankly roosevelt is looking for a fourth term. The war is still on. And in 1940 heed he dumped his Vice President and he puts in harry a. Wallace who is a very left wing, newage, kind of guide for back then. And he forces wallace on the ticket. The party does not really want him. And in 1944, roosevelt is getting the word back. You keep him on the tick tet and he could cost you a million votes. He says i cant do it twice, he has to go. Not so many words, but he, slits walla wallaces throat. He picks a replacement that is not too liberal, respected by the unions, but not really in the pocket of the unions. That is harry truman. They put him on the ticket in 1944 frankly roosevelt is did. And harry truman goes to the white house and says can i pray for you . And she says no, we need to pray for you, youre the fellow who is in trouble now. He starts off very popular. The war is won, the atomic bombs are dropped on japan. Vj day, america is at peace, finally and harry truman reaches a popularity level of 87 . It goes downhill real fast. And people, some of it is beyond his control, but some of them, there are reasons why his popularity drops. He is not franklin roosevelt. Right now all of the republicans are saying who is the next reagan . Boy, we miss reagan a lot. And back then it was by god, by god how we miss fdr among the democrats. And harry truman was no fdr. So there is a longing for the lost leader there. And he is prone to certain gaffes. His points are not always the strongest. There is talk of the small timers. You see the hold new dealers being shoved out. Giving speeches against the truman policy, but you also have, where, with harry troou map, the country turns against the party and the leader which brings us into war. If you dont believe me ask bush. Ask lyndon johnson. Woodrow wilson. What happens to Winston Church hill. He is out the door. So this is a normal tring. Theyre on a roll. By the spring of 1948 he is in the low 40s fr popularity. The Democratic Party is splitting three ways, not just two ways. Not just some sort of carter Teddy Kennedy thing going on. Not a george bush path pugh can than in thing going on. But it is being split in the left, the center, and the right. On the right you have the southern segregationist democrats. He talked a good game, but he had not done anything. Remember the army, the navy, in world war two, are still segregated. There is no move to desegregate anything. There is a big civil right kwees program they are simply aghast. And they feel personally betrayed. They thought of him as one of their own. A confederate sympathizer. If you look at his statements, he is not a bleeding heart liberal on the topic, but he puts it forward and the southerners are aghast. They start. The simple rights and states rights, and they will nut goo the electoral leg and they will broker a deal. A decorated war veteran, judge, and considered to be a progressive new deal but once he gets caught up in the South Carolina legislature, they Start Talking against the vifl rights program, and they start staying what can duo about harry truman. The irony of this, when thurman starts to be karied away by this, talking about how the bay yacht nets will not pork black people into our primming pools, homes, and schools, he has an illegitimate black daughter. The other wing is the Harry Wallace wing. And that is the extreme left win online the new dealers. Which is in many cases communist dominated not just left wing, but actual party members. And wallace has a problem and he has been cast aside not once, but twice. You would not be human unless you were bitter about this, and now we has two reasons to be against harry truman. He is talked into not just a primary chance, but what is their strategy . Since it is being disdated from the people being controlled by moscow, they have to try not to win an election, but to tennessee a possessage to trueman. We will give the election to the republicans. And then we will go back to the way it was with frank lynn roost fe franklin roosevelt. So true man is being squeezes on the left, on the right, he is in trouble. How can he pold together a do police if the south is going to be served against him, and where does he hold his strength. It is in states like new york city and in southern california, in illinois welco, and in the sn which they should win for the republican column. A very crowded and confused field. Typical when you have a president who is full neshl. When you have the opportunity there then that lot of opposition candidates come out and the four front runners that year, governor thomas edewey of new york, 45 electoral boats. Harold, a former governor of minnesota, now a punch line in american political history. He ran and lost so many times and ran and lost so many times with absolutely no chance of success. Robert ataft. A senator from ohio. Mr. Republican, mr. Conservative, but dull at paint. Not charismatic. And the fourth is not even in the country. Running the empire of japan, and apopular guy. But can he pull it off from far away . He doesnt. He entered into the wisconsin primary, he should win that, he doesnt, he stumbled. There is always the New Hampshire primary, there is the wisconsin primary, which mcarthur should win and he doesnt. He loses if to stacin. He is a boy wonder. In 1938 he was elected governor of minnesota, and he quits. He saysly quit in four founds and go into the navy. Imagine being elected in a platform like that. He comes out, you have the debate fill going on. He is on the extreme end of the republican internationalist brigade at that point. He is feisty. He wins in nebraska and he is poised to take it away as they go into oregon. Most of these things are still being done in party conventions. Maybe when you get to the convention. Now, oregon is where we see something happening which is being repeated again this year. Debates, were debating, were debating, were debating. And Newt Gingrich says i want a lincolndouglas style debate on one topic. Me and this one other guy in the room and it doesnt mat who are the guy is, who the gal is. He is calling on that type of debate. What he should be calling on is a stacindewey type debate, it is the first broadcast. Two guys in the room, in the iron cage on the topic of should the communist party of the United States be outlawed. Harold stacin, in the affirmative. Tom dewey. In the negative. Now we have not talked much about thomas dewey. He was the governor of new york. Quite remarkable because this year he is only 46 years old. That is about the age that obama was. That is only three years older than jack kennedy. He is a young man. He is an ex district attorney. He was a crime buster. The guy that went after the mob, put them in jail, went after the wall street guys, put them in jail, he did it all, he was speck t spectacular. He is looking at the polls, as a candidate it is the same way. He is the purported front runner, and the front runner in terms of delegates at this point, he is snot particularly loved in the party or among the population. But in this debate, he is the former district attorney. He is a great prosecutor, great with a jury. And dewey cleans his clock. Stacin is left a pleading on the floor. Dewey wins it, but he could still be stopped at the convention because he doesnt have the votes or the love, and he knows how to make a deal. He makes the deal to push him over the top and he wins the nomination. Then he is faced with a choice. Who do i make my Vice President ial candidate. A guy he wanted to put on the ticket four years before. Earl warren. A governor of california. This is another case where we look at a big liberal win of the Republican Party there. Warren may be the most liberal of all of them. He doesnt want to do it. He didnt want to do it in 1944 or in 48. If i want anything ever again, this could be it. I better take so, with great reluctance, it becomes the dewey warren ticket, which people think is just great its great its a fairly young ticket. Its progressive, its forward thinking, its got geographic balance, its got new york, its got california. Wow what a great ticket. And the democrats have got harry truman. Maybe not. Earlier in the year, the republicans were looking at a guy named dwight david eisenhower, the grassroots wanted ike. They liked ike. Everybody likes ike. They dont know what he is. Is he a republican . Is he a democrat . Hes a general. Thats good enough. Sort of like some big political version of white christmas, okay . Everyone loves a general. And they love him. He turns the republicans down. Democrats, things aint Getting Better for harry truman. The convention is going into philadelphia. Just about everyone has their convention in philadelphia that year, the republicans, the democrats, the progressives. Lets go with ike. Lets go with ike. And this amazing, incoherent coalition of democrats forms, united by one thing, staying in power. Southern segregationists like Richard Russell and strom thurmond, northern liberals like Hubert Humphrey, big city bosses of chicago, jersey city, members of franklin d. Roosevelts family, all of them come together and they want ike. They want to stampede the convention for ike. Ike finally draws back and says no at the last minute. Otherwise, it could have been eisenhower as the nominee and even as the president beating dewey, but he says no. Its not his year yet. He does become president that year, of columbia university. Four years more for the presidency. So, truman, truman its so bad. Its so bad at that convention. He gets on the phone and hes calling william o. Douglas, the Supreme Court justice will you be my Vice President . Why him . Because william o. Douglas is a guy whos respected by the old new dealers. He has to get back in good graces with that wing of the party. Hes got to cement that tie to the new deal. And william o. Douglas supposedly says, i will not be a number two man to a number two man and turns him down. So he takes Alben Barkley, this democratic leader of the senate, and youve got a ticket which is bartleys a pretty good speaker and hes kind of well liked. Hes older than harry truman and harry truman is not a young man. They both come from border states. It doesnt look like much of a ticket, doesnt look like much of a ticket. But harry truman goes to the convention, he waits for hours to give his speech. He doesnt give it until like 1 00 in the morning. And the convention has just been all roiled up with everything. Hubert humphrey had gone to the floor and forced a floor fight on the civil rights plank. The southern democrats were mad enough going into this convention. Then Hubert Humphrey says, our plank on civil rights is not as strong as the republicans its the same mush that we were pedalling in 1944. No, we need to move out of the shadow of states rights into the Bright Sunlight of civil rights. And he forces a floor fight onto the floor of the convention, first one since prohibition, and he wins. He wins and the southern democrats, some of them, anyway, walk out. They walk out. The convention is just dragging into chaos. Then when they announce harry truman is coming to the hall at 1 00 a. M. , past any media notice that you could get, they unleash this, they open up this big floral display of the liberty bell because theyre in philadelphia, and they fly out the doves of peace, which are all pigeons, actually, and theyve been couped up for hours now and they see all the lights and the noise and the bands, and they just go crazy and theyre attacking things and flying into electric fans and landing on sam rayburns head, and theyre doing things pigeons do. And harry truman has worn a white suit. Well, thats probably the low point. Harry truman starts off kind of slow, and he kind of has to point to Alben Barkley to get some applause lines and then he gets into what hes going to do. And im going to challenge the Republican Party and the donothing congress to come back in a special session and turn a day and pass a program for the american people, and the crowd goes wild and people say, wow, this could be a horse race. Maybe theres something going on here. But when harry truman goes to detroit to start his campaign on labor day, as democrats traditionally do, he hasnt got enough money to get the train out of the station, and they have to make some frantic calls to do that. Its still very dicey for him. The progressives under Henry Wallace come into philadelphia next. They have their convention. Its very interesting. You see the people who show up and we hear these names later on. Pete seeger is providing the music. Paul robeson is providing the music. Youve got a couple of delegates there who become United States senators, one of which is george mcgovern. And they kind of go off on to their own, but their campaign is downward, downward, downward with the progressives. The dixiecrats meet again. They dominate strom thurmond. All the while, things are going on in the world and in the country. As the conventions are meeting, country joe stalin decides to block berlin. So, what do you do . Start a world war . Do you send the convoys in or do you do an airlift . Do you figure out how to do an airlift to supply the people of west berlin before they riot and demand communism . And america figures out how to do that. And thats one of the things going on. Youve got the return of the peacetime draft. Now, world war ii, there was a segregated army. The blacks are saying, okay, we put up with that during the war. Were not putting up with that again. And a. Philip randolph says to harry truman, you do this again, im going to have a march on washington before Martin Luther king, march on washington. And you know something, weve taken polls, 30 of our black youth will not register for the draft if you have a segregated army and navy. This is when truman with his back to the wall in the middle of the election, knowing that the dixiecrats have already gone about as far as they can and not sure where the black vote in the north will go, this is when he makes his decision to desegregate the armed services. This happens right in the middle of this. In the spring actually,