More is very worrying and stressful for us it will be an experience we have already live with it its scary but once was declared every person has to defend his Homeland Security because of the. All the drug laws and irans territorial waters we want to thank you down. Also on the day residents of istanbul are changing or canceling their Summer Holidays so they can vote again for who will be the mayor of the largest city in turkey all this after arrival of president wretch of type one the 1st time around but at the president s urging the Electoral Commission said there were irregularities and determined a vote needs to happen again not injured the young good and then weve had many elections during summer but i have never seen Something Like this on the good bishop. If 100000 people from istanbul have changed or council their travel plans so they can be here and vote in the election. President donald trump blocked planned airstrikes on iran just minutes before they were to begin that news 1st reported by us media was confirmed by the us president himself who used slightly more flowery language than the New York Times trump tweeted the u. S. Military was quote cocked and loaded to retaliate on 3 different sites for the downing of a u. S. Spy drone on thursday he added a general told him 150 people would have been killed a u. S. Military strike was reportedly averted by just 10 minutes when mr trump apparently 1st heard specifics about the possible Collateral Damage and the reporting on the u. S. Military attack preparation and the president s tweet in response leave the world a bit breathless tonight i want to speak 1st with iran analyst a ban on that benta lulu he is with the foundation of defense of democracy a think tank in washington hes joining us however from singapore where he is currently a very good evening sir is this a needless crisis. Good evening to you it could be seen as a needless crisis but why is it we have this i think its important to have the facts in proper place here its needless because iran has engaged in a marked escalation that is actually quite different from the way iran prosecutes its Foreign Policy and National Security strategy iran isnt a asymmetrically strong country but conventionally weak country when it comes to military power so iran tends not to engage in direct confrontations irans decision however to fire directly from its territory using a surface to air missile against an american drone shows that there may be a change going on in irans National Security thinking about red lines about american escalation and about how far they can push and if this change is sustained over time that would mean that iran would become more old in the region and that itself would be needless given the tensions in the region already and given the 40 years of enmity between the u. S. And iran but that begs of course the question is what is the incentive for iran i mean is being backed against the wall because from tehrans National Security perspective they would have to respond to any perceived u. S. Military intervention. Well from terrans nationals perceived security perspective they would have to respond to perceived military intervention but a drone which is largely engage in reconnaissance should not count as that and historically i think drones have monitored irans territory beatrice Nuclear ProgramMissile Program or other or other malign activities that americans and other allied forces want to keep eyes on al be it from a distance there are of course a few times in iranian history in the 4 years of these long republic when iran has backed down and if you look at that history it actually has backed down when it was presented with the alternative of no way out of the room or as you mentioned when the back is to the way iran ended the 1980 s. And 1988 iran iraq war when it was extended needlessly for 6 years is an example for the 1st 7 years of that war the founding father of the Islamic Republic khomeini said war until victory and at the end he said he drinks from a poison chalice and like in accepting a u. N. Cease fire resolution to drinking from a poisoned chalice so i think the conditions here and washington should be trying to put to irans back to the wall and then offer to clear a pathway but by all accounts and by the looks of it iran is not about to capitulate so im just wondering what does success look like from your perspective and that of the u. S. Thats an excellent question because by all accounts i think iran is going to be escalating further and not just in the area that you mention which is you know pushing back an unamerican a military sense in the persian gulf i think we can expect to see more of what we saw in may in countries where iranian proxies are active such as iraq in syria out expect them to do want to target u. S. Forces or u. S. Assets or u. S. Interests in the cyber domain i would expect iran to be quite active in the missile testing world as well as well as irans Nuclear Program president rouhani of iran laid out 2 timetables to grow irans Nuclear Program throughout this summer willingly saying that iran would would transgress the limits imposed on it by the j. C. People a nuclear deal but in my view this is iran building up leverage iran saying that it too has its own escalation options and its trying to use all of these different escalation to intimidate washington to make sure that there is a split in the Transatlantic Community as opposed to unity and force washington to more publicly say that it wants a deal weaken the sanctions that exist and drive washington to the negotiating table as opposed to washington driving to iran to the negotiating table what is a high Risk Strategy by theres a high Risk Strategy because what happens if mr tom cannot get a bigger better agreement because in the end what has pulling out of this nuclear deal its heaved a deal with iran which according to the i. A. E. A. Was complying with fully. Well thats thats also important point because when the us left the deal last may the reason given for leaving the deal was not related to compliance the reason is corn to the us that what america traded away its sanctions leverage was far greater in value as to what iran gave up which was limited time sensitive concessions about the Nuclear Issue only so by washington restoring the sanctions of the j c p a way once waived its trying to create the same conditions that got iran to the negotiating table but once youre on gets there to broaden the aperture and have a bigger discussion now i think iran is actually in the very short term winning the battle here because its trying to paint the administration in washington as rhetorical tough when it comes to action week and so iran is trying to solidify a narrative that america cannot in fact to borrow from the founding father of the Islamic Republic for many it cannot do a damn thing what im what and this is in fact a pretty dangerous narrative to want to stick on to the administration because the ministration could be incentivized to escalate in response to terror on to prove that there are problems so i think what has happened is washington has generated tough penalties that the value is that often has done in 9 months what took multilateral sanctions 6 years to do when you look at the iranian economy and the goal of course is to make to iran realize that there is no way out but through and it is a bigger broader better deal that is irans own interest iran analyst to have an eye on that benefits have who with the foundation of defense of democracy so thank you for weighing in thank you so much. Next side like to turn to washington and the voice. Of the International Crisis group mr bass is the project director on iran there and known around washington and undoubtedly in tehran for an opinion piece headlined the u. S. Should strive for a stable iran instead it is suffocating it well he wont theres so much discussed peace in the Washington Post with a former Iranian Foreign minister and ambassador to the us from before the iranian revolution all right to mr via side like to welcome you to the program you noted in your op ed that you are from the post iranian revolution era but you and ambassador are dish it is a d r united basically in calling on the u. S. To stop threatening iran you heard our previous guest probably shouldnt iran stop its recent provocations in the gulf region the attacks on the oil tankers shooting down the drones. Look one has to understand the sources of iranian conduct and why is it that the iranians are now engaged in this kind of pushback i think its if you look at the last time that iran interrupted shipping in the persian gulf it really goes back to the heights of the iran iraq war so what is it that has pushed iranians to take these kind of provocative actions that i would say the answer to that its very clear that the trumpet ministrations maximum pressure policy and the fact that the iranians. After a year of waiting for the remaining parties to the deal to throw them some sort of economic lifeline have had an off and theyre basically pushing back at this stage both in the Nuclear Realm and in the region but this was an entirely predictable outcome of the trumpet ministrations maximum pressure policy what is iran in in your view telling the world and the region with its recent actions. Well the iranians are extreme and i think trying to do 2 specific things theyre trying to deter the trumpet ministration from further ratcheting up pressure against their on by demonstrating that there is a cost associated with u. S. Policy but theyre also compelling the remaining parties to deal the europeans the russians and the chinese to try to do their best to provide iranians with some sort of economic incentive that would justify. Them a lot missing in the deal and continuing to demonstrate restraint in the region how prepared in your assessment is iran for a military confrontation with the u. S. Who look and i think this is something that the iranians would like to avoid and thats why in the 1st year of the trumpet administrations maximum pressure policy they iranians demonstrated the maximum patience strategy and they really refrained from dangerous care mischas with the us in the persian gulf they sat on their hands and did not retaliate against more than 200 israeli strikes strikes on their assets in syria. But again now because of the success of u. S. Sanctions and driving their economy into the ground they are starting to lash out and at this stage i really think the only way out and the only option for deescalation is for the Stronger Party which is the United States to take a step back and try to provide do iranians with some sort of retrieve that would then create space for diplomacy whats the likelihood of that. Its extremely tough because both sides are entrenched i think the trump of ministration generally believes that its maximum pressure strategy is working by weakening iran in historic modes unlikely to want to step aside from it the president has surrounded himself with a group of iran office whove been seeking regime change and. A military confrontation with iran for years so he is actually the only one who is demonstrating restraint here on on the u. S. Side but the iranians are also reluctant to engage because they dont want to do so with a gun to their head out of fear that this will encourage the u. S. Being created the pressure not to alleviate it and at the same time they dont trust the trumpet ministration which is filled with iran hawks who are seeking regime change rather than behavior change in iran so who can at this stage disuse the situation can europe diffuse it should think. Well look the 3 main European Countries signatories to the deal france u. K. And germany they have created a banking mechanism in the ads helping iran to preserve humanitarian trade with europe i think what is needed at this stage is to turn the mechanism operational and this would require the tree to inject some exports credit money into it so that becomes functional almost immediately and i think that would help the iranians that hes stopped the in the Nuclear Realm but but you know again i have to emphasize here that the iranian leadership does not want war the same way that President Trump does not want war but we are in a climate that friction between the 2 sides is at a level and given the degree of tensions and the fact that there is no channel of communication that we can easily stumble into a conflict with a simple accident or an incident that no one has really a plan for will bilateral relations ever normalize. Look no enmity is for ever in the same way that no alliance is. Perpetual war and i think it is quite possible that at some stage both sides both come to the conclusion that enmity between them its extremely costly to both sides and to the peace and stability of the region writ large but that would require i think cooler heads to prevail both in tehran and washington but in the short run the most important thing is to prevent an escalation that would result in a devastating military confrontation between the 2 sides and a regional conflagration and that could be done if. An effective mediator maybe the europeans maybe the japanese maybe the swiss sort all monies would be able to find a middle ground in which both sides are able to save face and at least step back from the brink. By as director of the International Crisis groups iran project thank you sir for coming on its not pleasure. Now a question for voters in istanbul willoughbys 2nd time lucky in their city for turkeys ruling party all this sunday in the countrys biggest metropolis the mejor all election that saw an opposition candidate win for the 1st time in decades is being rerun hundreds of thousands are said to be delaying their Summer Holidays so they can vote there is again a distinct possibility that present richard to have everyones a k party will lose its grip on the city. This is how the final phase of election campaigning looks like in istanbul at the Ferry Terminal in the credit district the major parties have set up their stalls and they are doing their best to drown each other out. The city has been in Campaign Mode for almost 6 months now he narrowly won the Mayors Office in march a criminal it was the 1st opposition victory here in istanbul in 25 years but bin ali yet are among the ruling a. K. P. Wasnt going to give up the city without a fight his party fatah complains all the irregularities and obtained a rerun of the election so now its number 2 in the fight for turkeys most important city but the crimean mom who has been back on the campaign trail for weeks he still considers himself the legitimate mail of istanbul and the decision to rerun the election politically motivated but she has accepted it and hes determined to win again by a decisive margin. Of course the selection we run is a waste of time money and energy. And every day i am faced with another smear campaign. But this is something we have to deal with. And i believe that we will emerge unscathed and stronger from this experience. The date of the rerun is another challenge for him and his party the c. H. P. The vote takes place on june 23rd in the middle of the Summer Holidays thats when many people from istanbul are usually under cation but because the last election was decided by such a slim margin this time every vote counts. The opposition has even put out spruce warnings dont go to boardroom on june 23rd as heavy. No fall is expected and the beaches will be shut whether its down to the tongue in cheek at birds or not travel agent gem pull out almost as many as stumble lights have indeed changed their holiday plans. Weve had many elections during summer but i have never seen Something Like this. 500000 people from istanbul have changed or canceled their travel plans so they can be here and vote in the election. The ruling aka party is also vigorously campaigning on the streets their candidate for mayor at the 90 year durham was turkeys Prime Minister until last year hes playing on his political experience but president adlon who held one election after another in support of his men in the initial vote in spring is now noticeably holding back nevertheless the partys volunteers say theyre sure of the story that. We all go through mitchells years obsession with the c. H. P. Is definitely trying to create the impression that theyve already won it but were optimistic and the 1st round of votes was stolen and now were going to get them back voters keep telling us that they want banal used to them from me and called willing people when. Whoever wins is stumble wins turkey is a well known saying calling by president add one himself this time around many voters in this significant city would be happy of the winner of the election would also be recognized as such illegal or illegal alien hunger poured in there and we can go to yulia she is in a stone for yulia is there a clear front runner at this stage. Opinion polls here in turkey are considered notoriously unreliable but most of them show the opposition candidate creamy mom ahead with up to 8 Percentage Points but i met president adderall and yesterday in a rare meeting with foreign journalists way he dismissed these days as manipulative and made to order the real poll adwan says would take place on sunday so despite the opposition and their crummy mahmoud being hopeful that they can win again there is a lot of uncertainty as to what will happen on election day now if you joined. On the campaign trail who is he what can you tell us about him. Well until a few months ago he was little known even here in turkey he was the mayor of an