Where should we start the week? How about how predictions and forecasts are nearly worthless when they’re out of date one week later? How about with an old-fashioned run on a bank, eliminating any talk of another Fed rate increase. People wonder, “Where do I bank? Is it big enough? Is there enough regulation?” Lenders are making sure that their warehouse funding is not only from one bank, since nothing will shut down a faster than lack of liquidity and inability to fund loans. With the demise of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank (below, see government announcement from yesterday), here’s a great graphic of how we ended up with just four megabanks in the USA. And how did regulators not see a huge bank failure coming? Regulation is in the news, not only in banking but also in loan officer compensation. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is requesting the public’s input on the economic impact of the mortgage loan originator rules on small mortgage companies. (More below.) Residential lenders are watching rates help them: Curinos tells us February 2023 funded mortgage volume decreased 62% YoY and 4% MoM. (Curinos sources a statistically significant data set directly from lenders to produce these benchmark figures and drills into this data further here.) (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week is sponsored by Richey May, a recognized leader in providing specialized advisory, audit, tax, technology, and other services in the mortgage industry and in banking. Hear an interview with RentSpree’s Michael Lucarelli on the impact of homebuilder sentiment on the rental market and correlations with the purchase market.
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