Risk . This is bulls bears. Im david asman. Joining me, heather zumarraga, kristina partsinevelos, and jonathan hoenig. A measure of u. S. Manufacturing activity grew at the slowest pace on trade worries so is our economic expansion at risk . What do you think . I dont think our economic expansion is at risk, unless we have a fullblown trade war. Right now, after the g20, it doesnt look like we will have a fullblown trade war. I know we still need details on intellectual property theft, but the fact that we have at least paused tariffs in the short term is a good thing for the markets. Thats why the markets were soaring today. Economic expansion thats this long is always at risk of something ending it or nothing ending it. It doesnt go on forever, usually. I dont think this trade war ever was Strong Enough or big enough to derail an economy because partially because we basically got a stimulus plan in the combination of tax cuts and increased spending in an already okay economy that made the economy even hotter, and that benefit is much bigger than what we have already seen in the trade negatives of this. Now, could the tariff war blow up and include germany and other countries and go to much higher levels and cause a recession, definitely. But the current levels of tariffs that have been kicking around for about a year, although damaging to certain industries, are not enough to cause the this is not going away. The president even alluded to perhaps putting on new tariffs, not just even on china, on vietnam. I mean, there are reports he talked about tariffs on australia. Look, whatever you think about the president , this is a cost, the cost to individual consumers, cost to businesses writ large. I think your point is spot on. When it comes down to everyones individual portfolio, bull markets do not grow to the sky. Given the fact it is so bullish, i think nows a great time not to jump out of the market but to pay down some of that consumer debt. Credit card debt has exploded during this expansion. While times are good, no matter what you think of the president , get your financial house in order. To add to that point, if you take tariffs out of the equation, look at some of the reports we are getting. The manufacturing report, the fed several fed banks, dallas and philly, warning, some warning signs. You also have the fact business confidence, there was a survey that came out not as high as we have seen. If you look at some of these other factors, maybe the question, how to answer your original question is the expansion may not may be growing at a decelerating rate because like you said, its just been going on for so long. Then you have this trade war. We dont even know the details of whats in there. We do not know if china will actually go ahead and buy agricultural david it ended in an up day. We had triple digit gains but it was much higher, up at 290 at one point on the dow. But we have to remember, there are two phases to this economic recovery. There was the very slow, some would say pathetically slow recovery, one of the worst recoveries we have ever had during the obama era because they raised taxes, increased regulations, got the government involved in all sorts of things, then there was the trump recovery from the recovery, which was an economic boom because he lowered tax rates and he dramatically lowered regulation. There were two different parts of this recovery, right . Exactly. Thats right. President s dont control the economy but deregulation and tax cuts certainly help. I think some positive factors to look at aside from the manufacturing ism data we got is the fact that unemployment is still low. We have seven million job openings and wages are rising. Those things have to be positive for some sort of expansion. I mean, i dont see a recession when we have full employment. David more job openings than job seekers. Thats extraordinary. Theres no theres no arguing the fact this is a tremendous economy. I just think back to 10, 12 years ago when the economy was in terrible dire straits, of course, in the midst of the Global Financial recession and all those Consumer Confidence numbers were at multiyear lows. Of to be somewhat of a contrarian, i think, when it comes to the investor and i will borough borrow a line from warren buff etf. Be greedy when others are fearful, be fearful when others are greedy. Right now people are a little too greedy. If you look at constant tweets about the tariff war, its the Interest Rate. The Interest Rate environment looks like recession is coming. Investors dont think we will have robust growth for the next year or two. Could you say thats because people arent worried about the tariffs . I dont think thats what the drag is. We will have a global slowdown if Bond Investors are right thats whats going to happen. If theyre wrong, rates will go back up and we will keep hitting record highs. David finish your point. I want to switch gears. Interest rates are just so low it may be forcing investors into stocks which can help at least continue the stock market expansion, because theres nowhere else to go for yield or income with the tenyear around 2 . David as part of the trade deal we were talking about, huaweis front and center. President trump kind of reversing course on huawei today, delaying restrictions and allowing u. S. Companies to resume sales with the Worlds LargestTelecom Equipment maker but many are still concerned about the threat the company poses. Listen. I will continue to work with my colleagues and the administration to make sure that we are cleareyed about the threat that huawei poses to the United States and to make it a priority to protect american businesses and our national security. David so can the administration make the case to both democrats and republicans for its new huawei strategy . Im amazed at marco rubio. What sound editing to get that. I mean, the president has all but admitted this is in effect a bargaining chip. I think its frustrating because you have consumers who perhaps want to buy some of these products, businesses as well, and theres a lot of confusion whether or not this is actually a Security Threat or not. I would like to see some proof if it is. David we had, by the way, all of our intelligence chiefs, i think about a dozen of them, in front of congress, none of them felt comfortable having huawei, any part of our telecommunications system. Thats a little bit of proof, no . It seems its off the table for the near term. Again, this is a bargaining chip. It could be on the table just as quickly as it was off. It seems like two weeks ago, the president said, seemed to imply this was a huge Security Threat for the country. Im confused on why he flipped so easily. I would think you of all people would say heres the government, this is an excellent example of the government intervening saying we cannot do business with a company even though it is a company thats from china, intervening and on top of it, its still on the entity list, u. S. Entity list, so they can restrict sales of these products. I do believe its more of a political play which there is the Government Role again. You are using a business as a political chip for your trade negotiation and you are trying to cater right now to wisconsin, for example, pennsylvania, which trump only won by very small margin. Lets cater to the farmers, guarantee them agricultural buys and then maybe they will vote for me. Thats why i think this might be all about freedom and privacy and not necessarily about trade. This is just me speculating that perhaps thats why President Trump and the administration separated the issue when he was dealing with the u. S. And china trade relations and negotiations, that if this is a national Security Threat, and about freedom and privacy, lets separate that. But then why get huawei involved in the first place . If you are that concerned about privacy, then you have to not give huawei up like that so easily. Doesnt this make the United States or the president look weak or hes in a rush to get some type of deal . I think we will get some clarity and the president needs to make a statement on why he backtracked because just a week ago, we were urging our key allies in germany and britain not to do business with huawei. Germany and britain have both secured contracts with huawei and we threatened, we said dont do business with them. David maybe the president was listening to jonathan all along. If its a Security Threat, lets have a stephenson moment and say this is where the missiles are that guard cuba. David we had that with the intel chiefs. Go ahead, jonas. First of all, government globally, is a Security Threat. Any government can be a Security Threat if theyre not trustworthy government, is my point. As far as this company, they were just stealing a copy of the robot from tmobile. It was basically a japanese robot anyway. Doesnt seem like that big of an evidence story. They can do it, and it is a threat but so is any government intervening in its own Companies Businesses to access other countries telecommunications equipment. David everything is political these days. Coming up, protests over hong kongs new extradition bill becoming violent with thousands swarming the legislature there. We will bring you the latest. First, tensions rises as iran violates a key limit on nuclear deal levels of enriched uranium. Who tehran blames for the move and how world powers are reacting to the violation, next. Brad, ive got an idea for a song. Nationwide has this app. You can pay your bills, even start an auto claim. So what i was thinking. Let me guess. Start a claim right from your app. Have you been looking in my notes . My copd medicine. Thats why ive got the power of 1 2 3 medicines with trelegy. The only fdaapproved 3in1 copd treatment. Trelegy. The power of 123. Trelegy 123 trelegy. With trelegy and the power of 1 2 3, im breathing better. Trelegy works 3 ways to. Open airways,. Keep them open. And reduce inflammation. For 24 hours of better breathing. Trelegy wont replace a rescue inhaler for sudden breathing problems. Trelegy is not for asthma. Tell your doctor if you have a heart condition or high Blood Pressure before taking it. Do not take trelegy more than prescribed. 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I dont know your phone number. Aw well. He doesnt know our phone number you have our fax number, obviously. Todays xfinity service. Simple. Easy. Awesome. Ill pass. David iran is now admitting it has exceeded a key limitation on how much nuclear fuel is can possess under the terms of the 2015 nuclear deal. A limit which was intended to prevent tehran from developing nuclear weapons. Irans breach marks their first acknowledged violation of the deal which after all, the u. S. Congress never ratified and which President Trump ended. The white house releasing this statement in part. Maximum pressure on the Iranian Regime will continue until its leaders alter their course of action. The regime must end its Nuclear Ambitions and its malign behavior. Lets bring in American Islamic forum for democracy president. Thanks for coming in. How should we respond to this . I think we need to continue the steady hand of continuing sanctions and now europe is going to finally allow their sanctions to kick back or snap back, and ultimately the world should realize that we were being held to blackmail, that ultimately the terror in yemen, in syria, the attack of ships, the sanctions the attempt by them to increase the oil prices, et cetera, were all simply belligerent acts that prove that they were a terror regime and i think today, if they really werent about terrorism, they wouldnt exceed the 300 kilogram limit and it really shows that the entire nuclear deal was simply a lie as Prime Minister netanyahu said today. Its jonathan hoenig. Thanks for being with us. Iran has been at war with this country going back the 1979. You mentioned obamas iran deal. We can even think about the salmon rushdie debacle. Is the president s attitude towards north korea, another nuclear threat, devils advocate, is that emboldening iran . Is iran looking at our appeasement of north korea and think maybe it wouldnt hurt us to hang on and get that nuclear weapon, that will give us power with the u. S. . I think youre right in that appeasements elsewhere will have an impact on the way they view the Trump Administration but i would not think whats happening with north korea is appeasement. Simply having a meeting, continuing maximum pressure on north korea, is not going to be interpreted as appeasement by simply a meeting. I think the president would welcome a meeting with the leadership of iran. We have actually imposed sanctions on the Supreme Leader and others which were not done before, so i think they are feeling as much pressure as they can and they are seeing the Trump Administration consistent in that policy with other countries around the world. Kristina partsinevelos here. Im curious, could this be used as more of a bargaining chip and exaggerated on irans behalf because we dont know how much they are stockpiling or the quantity of it . I know you can mix the quality as well. Could they potentially be lying, seizing on this opportunity to scare everyone else . Well, thats a great point because if they want you know, i think one of the best questions is why are they doing this. Why are they showing their cards that it was a lie . I think its because they want to drive europe to try to change President Trumps approach, so they are trying to make europe more weakkneed and i dont think thats going to work. Already its showing its not going to work. In the end its going to backfire and actually embolden the west to put more pressure on them and actually push them more into isolation. They didnt really violate anything since we left the agreement, right . This was sort of what they werent supposed to do if we had an agreement, which we got rid of. Is that true, are we going to be moving to a new deal like trump did with the nafta redo which was an improvement . Or is that not even on the table right now . I think many aspects of the deal have shown that we did not have the ability to do the inspections that we needed to, and ultimately now they are proving that they were able to ramp up their production even though they claimed to not have the centrifuges and other things they needed to do it quick lu but they are doing it pretty darned quickly. I think ultimately we will have to reboot it. If they come to the table and if they care about their people and dont want to bring war, ultimately i think thats whats going to happen over the next few months. Obviously the u. S. Does not want to engage in a conflict or war as well. If you broaden it out, what is the end game here . Is it that the u. S. Demand they stop funding terrorist groups . I think the end game is a secure region in which they dont threaten our allies, they dont threaten israel and saudi arabia, and we do not allow them to achieve nuclear armamentation. I think ultimately thats going to have to be a new deal completely and its going to have to be the end of them driving the houthis, driving assad and others into the region, attacks from our assets in iraq as they have done and also against ships. There are many parameters we can use as measures that we have achieved some pushback, if you will, or ability to contain them, but the end game is containment and the people of iran have focus. Its in their interest for the regime even to begin to come to the table because their economy is tanking and the people are speaking. Contrary to the oped that ran in the New York Times today which might as well have been written by the irgc, the people of iran are not with the regime. The people of iran are against them and the regime is cornered as a minority, not a majority as the New York Times wants you to believe. David quickly, when will we see some action . We saw the protests at the beginning of the Obama Administration which the Obama Administration did nothing to help support. Are we likely to see that again, particularly as we rachet up the economic sanctions . Absolutely. We are seeing it. We are just not hearing about it as much as we should but it is on the streets in many of the cities sort of smoeld smolderin this. We are actually feeding the regime and allowing them to suppress the demonstrations which now have not been able to be done. Thats why actually now they are getting a new life in the last six months they have never had before. They arent screaming death to america. David good to see you, zuhdi. Thank you for coming in. Meanwhile, a suspicious package at a facebook mail facility in california. Haz mat crew reportedly is on the scene. 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