Down for more than a month to try to stop the spread is taking a real beating. For the fourth week in a row, firsttime jobless claims were in the multimillions taking the total number to 22 million. Retail sales plunged 8. 7 in march, the worst ever in history of data. And the Federal Reserve reported Economic Activity has fallen sharply during the crisis. Mindful of the damage to the economy, President Trump announced on thursday guidelines to begin reopening the country soon, leaving the actual Decision Making to state governors. Meanwhile, the country is being subjected to what is essentially a rather pointless daily battle between the media and mr. Trump plaided out during his coronavirus briefings. Reporters seem to think that their main job is to apportion blame, and they spend endless hours accusing President Trump of failing to do enough to address the virus. And, of course, President Trump being President Trump, he accuses them of fake news, and he hurls himself back at them. A good example came monday in this exchange with paula reid of cbs. The argument is you bought yourself time, you didnt use it to prepare hospitals or ramp up testing youre so, youre so disgraceful. Its so disgraceful what did your administration do in february a lot. A lot. A lot. What . Gerry im not sure what purpose this all serves. Clearly, mistakes have been made, there always are mistakes, many mistakes in the early stages of a government response to a crisis. We saw that from some of our greatest leaders in times such as the civil war and, indeed, world war ii. But there is a lot we dont really yet know about this crisis and how its unfolding, how lethal it is, how long were going to be fighting it. And its a little premature to make judgments about whos to blame until we much more eviden. In the meantime, there is real, proper work to be done. Dreaging the spread of the virus and dealing with the Enormous Economic fallout. No one benefitses from this daily cock fight. We need to learn from past experience. To do that, we can look at the history of these kinds of events which weve had many of. The worst pandemic ever was the 1918 spanish flu which broke out during world war i. Now, that outbreak lasted almost three years, and half a billion people got sick. That was about onethird of everyone loving on the planet at the time. Tens of millions of people died including almost are 700,000 here in america. So what are the lessons that we might learn from previous epidemics, and particularly how people responded to that one . What could we do better to prepare for the next pandemic . To get those answers, i want to welcome historian john barry, author of what is widely considered to be one of the most important books ever written about the 1918 spanish flu entitled the deadly influenza. John barry joins me live via skype from new orleans. Professor barry, thanks for joining us. Of course. Thanks for invite aring me. Gerry lets start, if we could, if you could remind us about the scale of the 19181920 socalled spanish flu, just about how extraordinary, just how extensive, how lethal, how damaging it was to humanity. Well, i think two numbers will pretty much encapsulate that. Number one is the death toll, estimated 50100 Million People. If you adjust for population, that would equal 220440 Million People today. Roughly twothirds of them died in an extraordinarily short period of about 14, 15 weeks from september to december 1918. The second is that the peak age for death was 28. Unlike coronavirus. Roughly twothirds of the dead were aged 1435, so the target demographic was quite different. Gerry you mentioned that peak of a few weeks which occurred in the fall of 1918, and i think in terms of relevance and of concern to this particular crisis, that was actually the second wave, wasnt it which turned out to be much more lethal than the initial wave which happened right around the same time of year this one is happening. Well, thats correct. The first wave was very spotty, did not distribute itself widely around the world at all. For example, los angeles didnt have a single influential death in the spring. New york did have a pronounced pandemic. Western europe did get a more widespread outbreak in the spring, but much of the world escaped almost entirely. Travel, of course, then was quite a bit different. The virus did turn much more virulent, however, there were plenty in the spring that had that capability. Right now there is no evidence anywhere in the world of the slightest hint that this virus will do anything like that. So im not at all concern of that particular part of the problem. Gerry so you think, actually, thats unlikely, that we dont face the risk of a second wave, especially a more lethal second wave in the fall. Well, the virus is going to be around, but its not going to turn more lethal. The key really is not so much seasonality, but susceptibility. You know, cold and influenza viruses are more common in winter because they survive longer outside the body in cold than they do in higher temperatures and higher humidity. Also people on the tend to be inside more, so it spreads more easily in winter. But in this cause the susceptibility, whether its 80 , 95 , we dont know the exact number but certainly the overwhelming majority of people are not yet been exposed, this is an easilyspread virus, so i dont expect seasonality to be as important as it is in a normal influenza or cold season. I think, you know, for example, even in 1919 australia was the last part of the world to be hit by that second wave because they had a very rigid quarantine. It was finally leaked in january which is dead winter excuse me, dead summer for australia. It spread widely there. Right now in singapore, tropical, the virus coming back. So i think susceptibility to population is more important than the seasonality. Gerry what were the economic consequences of the spanish flu as it was called at the time . Weve shut down our economy here along with many, many countries, effectively shut down large parts of the economy. What happened in it was the end of the First World War for the first year, what happened economically between 1918 and 1920 . Well, of course, none of the finish most of the cities in the United States banned public gatherings, you with, from Church Services to saloons and theaters, but they did not take the more extreme measures that were actually doing now. And i think the social distancing that is going on is going to be and has already demonstrated that its much more effective than what was done in 1918 because it is more extreme. By the same token, one of the big differences between influenza and the coronavirus is the incubation period. Influenzas 14 days, most people get sick in 2 days. Covid19 is 214 days, most people get sick 56 days. In 56 days. That sprech stretches everything out and makes management much more difficult. You know, the total time frame was 14 or 15 weeks in the fall for influenza, but in any Given Community it would be 610 weeks and then it was essentially gone. There was a third wave that came later, but for all intents and purposes, disappeared from that community. They could get back to normal in quite a short period of time gerry professor, we forgive me for interrupting, weve got to take a quick break. Coming up, i want to talk more, obviously, about what happened 100 years ago, but also, critically, about what we learned and didnt learn from that flu outbreak. Stay with us. Gerry im with john barry, author of the great influenza. Mr. Barry, or thank you again. Professor, as you look at what were going through now and with your depth of knowledge of what happened 19181920, what do do you see in terms of our response to this . What are we getting lets start, if we may, what are we getting right in terms of how we are responding that perhaps enables us to avoid some of the worst outcomes of a hundred years ago . Well, clearly the social distancing measures were getting right. Here and many other, most other places in the world although not everywhere. Of mexico, brazil are outlie iers outliers on a negative side. But the social distancing clearly is having an impact. Gerry how did the, how did the flu in 1918, how did it end . It went up til 1920. How did we finally get beyond that . Well, again, it did last until 1920, but remember the overwhelming majority of deaths were in that incredibly compressed time period. You know, number one, i would say peoples immune systems were better able to respond to it when they saw it again and again. Thats number one. And number two, the virus itself, the influenza virus, decays very, very rapidly. And it seemed to tend toward mildness, not the lethality that that second wave had. Coronavirus, while all of them also mutates, covid19 mutates a lot more slowly than influenza, which is a good thing. Otherwise we had greater difficulty developing vaccines. Gerry what about this idea you really have to let these things essentially burn themselves out, until a significant number of the population have had it, that protects the remaining population, and there really isnt a way until a vaccine comes online, what finish how could that work . Do we just have to wait until, essentially, enough people have had this disease and developed immunity that we can then move on . Well, as you possibly know, sweden is essentially taking that approach, trying to protect the elderly and those with underlying conditions, but other than that theyre largely decided to let the virus run free. Much of the world is looking at that. In this virus to get herd immunity, you would need the vast majority of the population to have been infected, well over 50. And that percent, obviously, presents some very Serious Problems in terms of death toll. Gerry thats the figure that overwhelms our medical capacity to deal with it. Correct. Among other things, yeah. But even if the medical system was able to handle the numbers, you would still have very many deaths. I dont think were ready to pay that price. Gerry just quickly, in your book you talk a lot about the importance of communication and one of the reasons i think obviously one of the failures of governments back in 1918, 1920 was a failure to communicate and to doing it honestly with their people, was it that important then and how important is it now . Well, i think it was crucial then. I think, you know, or we were at war and pretty close to outright lies about the disease initially which led to almost a breakdown, certainly, a fraying of society and many cities and the few places where the local leaders did tell the truth, those cities like San Francisco which had very high excess mortality, but it functioned. Other cities began to fall apart. Youd see people starving to death. Gerry professor, weve got to take one more quick break, if we may, and then well discuss more of the lessons we should be learning from the great flu of 1918. Stay with us. Americas oldest lighthouse has weathered many storms. 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Wow, that is easy. Almost as easy as having those guys help you move. We are those guys. Thats you . The truck adds 10 pounds. In the arms. Okay. Transfer your Service Online in a few easy steps. Now thats simple, easy, awesome. Transfer your service in minutes, making moving with xfinity a breeze. Visit xfinity. Com moving today. Gerry historian and author johnly is my guest. Professor barry, as you look at the history of these epidemics, obviously, the one you wrote about, the great influenza in particular, but in 1957, asian flu, weve had sars, mers, aids, of course, in many ways the thing that strikes you is how common they are in occurrence they are, and the odd thing that what surprises you that we should be surprised by them. And yet when they come along, as they have done this time, we dont seem to have been prepared, we seem to have been surprised by it. Do you think thats fair . Well, question and no. Finish yes and no. Theres a Certain Community of virologists and preparedness people who were not at all surprised. Theyve been, california santalike, screaming how old by for decades loudly for decades. So the experts arent surprised. Its difficult to get governments or for that matter hospitals in the priest sector to make in the private sector to make the investment to prepare. Because then youre talking about money that seem to be inefficiently used. Same thing for supply chains, just in time inventories is very efficient but creates all sorts of problems when theres an interruption. They dont like slack. Gerry do you think that, as you look at the way in which we responded to this, i mean, first of all, beginning china, you know, it started in china, theres some dispute about whether it started in a wet market or maybe even possibly in a lab, china was, it seems, was very slow in both responding directly and certainly communicating the scale of the threat to the rest of the world. Do you agree with that . I would. The one thing china did do that was extremely helpful was get the genome out there pretty early. Thats hugely important. But on many other things, i would agree that china was not acting as responsibly as they should have. We thought they had learned their lesson from sars. A lot of improvements came after that but, unfortunately, i dont think they performed very well in this. Gerry and what do you think needs to change . Obviously not just in china, but with the rest of the world, the way in which governments prepare. Again, we have had so many warnings of these things. As you said, epidemiologists are warning about it all the time. What do we need to do to insure that we dont suffer in the way that we are, both in human and economic terms, as much as were suffering right now . Well, there are a lot of viruses out there in the wild. All of them not all of them, but many of them could potentially jump species from animals to people p. So the Research Community needs to be better funded, the whole preparedness Community Needs to be better funded. Emerging viruses, particularly viruses but there are other pathogens as well, are a threat. I think after in that will happen. After this, that will happen. This is not something people will forget or pass over in the way sars, which seemed like a threat but turned out to be containable, mers is not spread widely at all, so its easy not to take them seriously. This everyone is taking seriously. Gerry and weve certainly learned to take it seriously. Again, the book is called the great influenza, and my great thanks to john warily. Thank you very much, in john barry. Up next, why time is really of the essence now in getting the country back to normal. Stay with us. Im your mother in law. And i like to question your every move. Like this left turn. Its the next one. You always drive this slow . How did you make someone i love . That must be why youre always so late. 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Gerri while clearly hopeful signs are emerging in the fight against the coronavirus epidemic, the economic damage from the shutdown continues to get much worse. This week the International Monetary fund said that the u. S. Economy is likely to shrink by 5. 9 this year. Thatll be among the worst annual declines this countrys faced since the Great Depression with unemployment likely to rise as high as 20 . But many economists believe that when the crisis is over, the economy will recover most of that lost ground and quite quickly. Financial markets also reflect that optimism. The Dow Jones Industrial average has made up more than half the loss it incurred on hopes of an early socalled vshaped recovery. But this outlook is actually highly uncertain and, i think, maybe much too optimistic. The longer the lockdown goes on, the greater the longterm economic damage it will do. Businesses will be more reluctant to hire. Workers will lose key skills. Consumer confidence will be weakened further, and debt levels will place a much larger burden on governments and companies. That is why its so critical that we are able to return to some semblance of normality soon. Those workers who can safely return should be back at work without delay. A staged reopening of the economy must be implemented quickly. Its too soon, obviously, to declare victory e over this epidemic, but if we dont find a smart way to restart our economic engine soon, the ultimate damage will be even greater than a what we now fear it will be. Well, thats it for us this week. Be sure to follow me on twitter, facebook and instagram, and ill be back next week when my guest will be michael lev visits who helped lead president george w. Bushs efforts to prepare for pandemics like the one were facing now. Thats it the wall street journal at large. Thats it for this us, have a great weekend. Barrons round table sponsored by jack welcome to barrons round table, im jack otter. We begin with what we think are the three most important things investors should be thinking about right now. Stocks took a big hit in response to the coronavirus, but the s p 500 and big tech are showing surprising resilience. Health Care Companies at the center of the pandemic, which stocks to watch and the impact of the crisis on automakers. How the entire auto ecosystem might function in our new reality. We spoke to ford ceo jim hackett. On
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