Watch. Give us your reaction to what were hearing from bob woodward. Despite what you heard on that tape, they began to move the operation of government, they ultimately mobilized private industry to have ventilators, at one time there was a real fear we would have a shortage of those. Going to have a vaccine faster than anytime in the history of the world. Maria your reaction to this pause in the Covid Vaccine at astrazeneca. Well, you know, this is one of the reasons why Clinical Trials are done. This is an indication theyre being done safely. Maria we will see another stimulus package, mark . I do believe well see that. If we would just listen to the American People and meet those needs like the president of the United States is doing. Maria do you believe we see more guilty pleas in addition to kevin klein smith . The challenge has always been who ordered the kill shot, so to speak. So clearly, there was a conspiracy here. This wasnt just dreamt up by a good old fbi agent that was working hard. Maria President Trump talks about law and order. That message is resonating. Maria you say that people are not focusing on the productivity impacts on the recovery. Bottom line is youve seen the improvement of productivity which is improving Profit Margins which does give companies the ability to hire. Maria yeah, it was wild trading week as Technology Stocks led a big selloff. Big tech has been the center of the markets recent volatility as in an lists think the recessionproof resilience was getting overvalued. Joining me to discuss that is the founder and managing partner of rose cliff, mike murphy. Thank you for being here. First, let me get you take on the tech selloff this week. Does this indicate theres more selling to come . Good morning, maria, great to be with you. The tech sector, the apples, the teslas, the netflixs, the amazons, they all got bid up in the market in this vshaped recovery weve seen. Maybe they got a little bit ahead of themselves. What i look for is anything fundamentally changing in these businesses . Is apple not going to sell as many iphones as we anticipated . And the a answer for me is a resounding no. Is so to put a cap on the valuation when these companies are showing real growth, i think any pullback in big tech is an opportunity to buy. Maria Goldman Sachs out with a report looking for 35 growth in the third quart. Nancy lazar, we just heard from a little bit ago in that talkers piece, and shes talking about productivity which leads her to say 3035 gdp in the Third Quarter, shes thinking that the Fourth Quarter is going to be about 45 , the stimulus package could impact that. Whats your take on the res of the year in terms of the back drop for investing, and that is the economic story . I think the setup, maria, is stronger now even than what it was earlier this year. Obviously, the covid pandemic was horrible for for thefect itd on lives, but i think the effect on business, others have had to figure out how to get by and be more productive with less. So i think the setup into next year, you have a lot of companies that can actually do more things. So i think going into 2021 getting past the pandemic, businesses are going to be doing even better than we attempted. I agree with the 35 gdp number, but i think thats just the beginning. I think it can actually get better as we get further past the pandemic. Maria so it looks to me that you are in new york city. Does it feel like people are coming back to new york . To you feel like the economy is getting back to normal little by little . The economy nationwide, yes. So in new york city, no, the kids are in school here, so thats really the main reason im here. Its different here in new york. You know, we have a mayor in new york city that has kind of proven to be antibusiness. Theres a lot of my fellow Business Owners have gotten together to try to reach out to him and say we need, we need more leadership. We need police, we need law and order, we need sanitation workers. Aye never seen and ive been here now for almost 50 years ive never seen new york city like this. So new york on its own needs better leadership. The country as a whole, people are leaving new york, and i think the economy nationwide is going to do great, but new york city has a lot of problems. Maria before you go, we were talking about the backdrop for investing in the public markets. You invest in private companies, private equity, venture capital. Tell me where youre finding growth right now, mike. So, you know, weve been kind of so corona hit very hard in the first few months. We werent sure where money was going to come from to continue to fund these private highgrowth businesses. But once that unlocked a a little bit, we saw certain sectors start to move in ways you would have never seen before. A company like peloton could have never expected their earnings this week, this type of Growth Without coronavirus. Were investors in a lot of Telemedicine Companies like roman, and these companies have just taken off. Theyre three years ahead of schedule on where we thought they would be. So i think right now the market is telling you its open to highgrowth private businesses coming out, not just the airbnbs and the multibillion dollar companies. But theres a place for highgrowth businesses to come into the public markets, theres an appetite for it. Maria do you think that the things we have been doing more of whether its telemedicine or ecommerce, teleeducation, these things, the digital economy, will further persist in the coming couple of years . I do, because, you know, its things like weve had, weve all had to have more things delivered to our house. So its really changed the way consumers shop, the way consumers get food. So that, weaver realized that theres an easier way to do things, and now were going to continue to do that. Tool mates was acquired by uber. More and more people are realizing that because of tech where it is now, their lives can be a lot simpler if they use technology to get food, to get education, to get in contact with people, to see a doctor. So that genies out of the bottle now, and its not going back. Theres a tremendous amount of growth and productivity thats going to come in this country because of these great private companies that we like to invest in that are now growing so quickly. Its a great time to be in the United States of america. Maria it sure is. Mike murphy, its great to see you. Thanks so much. Mike murphy joining us there. Dont go enough, weve got the founder of geicos been helping people save money for over 75 years. Theyve really stood the test of time. 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There are few exceptions in terms of childcare, etc. Joining me now to discuss the Business Climate and more is the cofounder and cochairman of the Carlyle Group, he is a wall street titan with now 200 billion in as asset funds in management. David rubenstein is with us. Thank you for being here. I know you are the author of a new book, how to lead, congrats on the book. Were going to talk about that book coming up. Thank you so much for being here, david. My pleasure. Thank you for having me. Maria so whats your take on the Business Climate today . Give us your take on getting back to normal post this pandemic and the impact of this shutdown. Look, everybody wants to get back to normal, but i think we have to be real lust you can about it. A vaccine, while one might be available or more than one might be available by the end of the year, that means it might be technically available. Getting it to distributed and making sure everyone feels comfortable is going to take some time. I think the leading people in the area think that it will take probably until the middle of the year before enough people are vaccinated so that people feel comfortable going back to work. And then you have the childcare issue as well. So i do know that jpmorgan is asking traders to go back, but in most cases in new york and major city, large numbers of people are still going to work from home, i think, for another 69 months. People are afraid, theyre nervous about going into elevators and muck transit, so those issues have to be ve resolved. And if i also would point out that some people have have gotten comfortable or working at home, and many people want to stay or maybe only work in the office one or two days a week. So the world has changed a bit, and i dont think were going to go back to where we were in 2019 anytime soon. Maria i think you make so many important points. I think managers of businesses right now are understanding that, guess what . Its working. Some people from actually more productive than they were before. So i agree with you in terms of were not going to see the full capacity of people back in the office anytime soon. You know, its a very interesting phenomenon. The Industrial Revolution took about a hundred years start to finish to change the world from an agrarian economy. That was something that was happening over a period of time. Weve done this in basically a year. In one year weve changed the way that we work. We dont work in the office as much as we used to, we work at home, and i think thats not going to go away anytime soon. People like working at home, its much more comfortable, saves travel time, and its less expensive. While people will go back to work, for sure, some will, not everybody will, and if you have Young Children at home and theyre not in school, its difficult to go back to work. Maria what does all of this mean for the broad backdrop of the economy, in your view . Goldman sachs came out with a report expecting gdp in the Third Quarter to be 35 . We had nancy lazar on a couple of weeks ago, she said the same thing, 3035 gdp, but then shes all the way down to 5 in the Fourth Quarter. Your expectation for economic growth. When you have a recession, usually it takes about three years to get back to where you were before the recession started. So if the recession started, lets say, in the First Quarter of 2020, it could take two or three years normally to get back to where we were in terms of gdp. Now, gdp will show signs of growth from where we were a quarter ago, but getting back to where we were in 2019 will take some time. Many industries are still sidelined. Yes, the technology worlds in great shape, the Financial Service worlds in put good shape, the health care world, but the cruise industry, the movie industry, the entertainment entry generally, the hotel industry, the airlines, those industries have been hard hit, and many are not come back in the psalm shape as they were same shape as they were, and many employees are not going to get their jobs back. I think a lot of employers are basically going to not bring back everybody they had before. They can get by with fewer people, and they have less e revenue to justify the people they had before, we really are going to have a but fur candidated bifur caughted economy. The companies at the bottom of the economic strata, they arent coming back so soon to, and its going to take years for people to adjust to this fact. Thats the sad a reality of it. Maria and, david, your take on stimulus and what has created uncredible debt load. Youre talking about, what, 27 trillion in debt. Higher than the overall size of the economy, david. Yes. Its a very unusual situation. Right now we have 27 trillion in debt. In the 1970s a famous senator once said a billion here, a billion here, it becomes real money. A trillion dollars is a lot of money. Right now the u. S. Government is borrowing 50 of the money we are expending in our budget. Thats never happened before except in world war ii. You cant keep doing that forever, and at some point were going to have to pay back the debt. Fortunately, Interest Rates are low, but at some point, our children and grandchildren have to pay this back at higher Interest Rates, and the federal government will have to shrink the things its doing. Maria you added another job to your resume, and that is interviewer, what youve learned from all the many interviews youve been able to conduct which you you about in your new book. Book. David rubenstein is with us this hey, can i. Hold on one second. Sure. Okay. Okay safe drivers save 40 guys guys check it out. Safe drivers save 40 safe drivers save 40 safe drivers save 40 thats safe drivers save 40 . It is, thats safe drivers save 40 . Hes right there. Its him hes here. Hes right here. Hi hi. Hey thats totally him. Its him thats totally the guy. Safe drivers do save 40 . Click or call for a quote today. i need it so bad dont call it a hobby. Its way more than just a job. This is how we live every single day. Can we go and play . roaring of engines i needed to try needed to fall i needed your love im burning away i need never get old im burning away you can go your own way go your own way your wireless. Your rules. Only Xfinity Mobile lets you choose shared data, unlimited or a mix of each. And switch anytime so you only pay for the data you need. Switch and save 400 a year on your wireless bill. Plus, get 400 off when you buy the new Samsung Galaxy note20 ultra 5g. Maria and were back with the Carlyle Group cofounder and cochairman david reuben stein david rubenstein. Many of whom you have interviewed, david. Tell me why you wrote the book and also what you learned from so many luminaries that youve been able to sit down with. Leadership is very important. If youre going to have a successful country, you need to have good leaders. So i wanted to take the best ideas from some of the best leaders ive interviewed, put them into a book and have young people read them so perhaps they could learn some of the things that made jeff bezos, David Petraeus or colin powell successful. A country can only succeed if it has really good leaders, and i think its important we make certain our Young Leaders are getting ready to assume leadership when theyre older. What i wanted to do in the book was to say what are the qualities that people have in common who are great leaders, and i learned many of them have many things in common. One, they typically failed early in life, they werent superstars when they were very young. They have persisted, persisted, per suggestioned. Next they also learn how to improve their brain all the time, always reading, always learning more. They also learned that humility is important, and you have to be humble because you pick yourself up and realize youre not perfect. And many of them also learned how to share the credit, how to inspire people, and they have a vision of where they want to go and communicate that with people. Many people willing to talk about their failures, in fact, they enjoy talking about their failures as much as their successes. Maria you break it down into three parts, the early years, the middle years and the later years. I like the fact that you say some of the leading people today were not leaders back in the early days. So tell me about that. Well, its my theory that the superstars when youre in high school or college, the people that are the allamerican athletes or the Rhodes Scholars, the white house fellows or Supreme Court clerks very often they get tired of being a leader or they just dont continue to work as hard, and so the people that really lead the world in the second and third part of their life are more modest in their earlier achievements, but they just persisted. They caught up, they passed the heir, and theyre leading thaw passed the hare. I think bill clinton might have been the only one that people would say this person might be president of the United States. A lot of them a had challenges, were not seen as superstars, they just per suggestioned. And thats what i want to convey to people, per suggestion, persist, persist, and dont be upset with failure. In my own case, i was no superstar when i was young, not a great athlete or scholar, but i got lucky in life, and thats important for everybody, but per is sis tense is very important. Dont think if youre not a rhodes collar, youre not going to be Rhodes Scholar youre not going to be famous in life. George bush said you might wind up as president of the United States one day. Maria let me end on one of the big issues of the draw, and that is china. We know we are talking about something of an economic cold war with china whether it be, you know, the pushback on intellectual property theft or the human rights abuses with the uighurs or the companies, Chinese Companies listed on our exchanges, theres a pushback in congress to say youre going to follow the same accounting rules. Can the u. S. And china operate and partner Going Forward given these main issues and completely different ways of governance, the u. S. Dealing with the communist party . Over the last 500 years of history, its never been the case the two economic powers in the world got along swimmingly. Right now before a president ial election, of course theres tensions. Both the democrats and republicans see no loss in beating up on china. Theres no votes to be lost by saying chinas terrible. I think after the election, whoever ones, i think well begin to have some kind of rapprochement with china because its in our best interests to have a good relationship. Were not going to agree on everything, but a strong relationship with china is essential, i think for both economies. So itll get better but not until after the election. Maria david, its great to have you this weekend. Thanks so much for your time. My pleasure. Thank you for having me. Maria well see you soon. David rubenstein. Dont go anywhere, more wall street right a after this. Tada did you know Liberty Mutual customizes your Car Insurance so you only pay for what you need . I should get a quote. Do it. 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Because if you download and use the chase mobile app, your bank is virtually any place. So visit chase. Com mobile. Maria welcome back, everybody. Thatll do it for this week. Thank you so much for joining me. Every friday night, 9 p. M. Eastern for another edition of wall street. Weve got a big show next weekend, hope youll join us. Plus, this weekend on fox news, sunday morning futures on the Fox News Channel live 10 a. M. Eastern, texas senator ted cruz, white house trade adviser peter navarro. Also joining me, burgess owens, my special guest this weekend. Catch the show live, 10 a. M. Eastern over on fox news this sunday. Miss, start smart every weekday, 69 a. M. Eastern on fox business. We hope you will start the day with us every weekday. Thatll do it for us this weekend. Thank you so much for being with me. I hope you have a great. Ill see you again next time. Gerry welcome to the wall street journal at large. Vote early, vote often, the old joke used to say, but its 2020 and if that joke was ever funny, it certainly isnt now. Since those ancient athenians first dropped their pebbles into urns, concerns about voting fraud have been a constant feature of democracy. In the United States, fraud was rampant before secret ballots in the 19th century. Vote selling, voting
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