Transcripts For FBC The 20240703 : vimarsana.com

FBC The July 3, 2024

And green for mostly the russell 2000 and ousting of speaker Kevin Mccarthy in the rear view, the bulls are holding on to the green by a gossamer thread and spiking bond yields barely retreated and point gain for the dow of nine measly points. Earlier gains of a gain of about 130 points and weve not come close to erasing tuesdays 430 point loss. Buyers of blue chips emerged earlier but since lost a bit of steam here. What is working kicking off the final hour of trade. To the dow heat map, theres amgen, microsoft, walmart, sales force, visa and nike in the lead. La guards are chevron laggards are chevron, walgreens, boots, 3m and not one sector getting slammed or jumping. S p up 18 points but yesterday it lost 58 points and nasdaq recovering, lets call it about 133 points of the 248 point route just 24 hours ago. Tech stocks tend to dot worst when bond yields sore those yields spiked on stronger than expected august jobs or jolt jobs opening and labor reports and thats got investors betting the fed will be forced to keep Interest Rates higher for longer. Twoday picture here and the two year at 5. 09 at the moment. Earlier at 5. 11 . Then the 10 year yield down about fiver basis points currently at 4. 746 . Bond king revealed his play for dealing with that scenario last night at double line capitol ceo quip now you can buy a t bill and chill. He specifically referenced the one year. If you look at 2 month it canner bond right now, it is yielding 5. 428 . By the way, props to our floor show traders, teddy weisburg and scott shellady. They told you yesterday on the claman countdown, go with the t bills. Whats got the market tweaked or capped for the gains . 30 year yield punched before 5 before dawn touching 5. 011 before retreating to what we have right now, which is 4. 871 . So when you ask yourself, what should investors read into that and how should they proceed . Bond yields usually when they move higher are what keep a clip or at least as we say a cap on stocks. Right now, Dow Jones Industrials up five points and the dow was down 129 points but its also been up 130 points and see from the interdays here that its not exactly stable and maybe thats got something more to do in washington dc yesterday. Trickles today and led the dc hunter games begin and two candidates tossed hat in the ring for speaker jim jordan of ohio and Steve Scalise of louisiana both confirmed they want the job after speaker Kevin Mccarthy was removed in a historic vote. California republican seen here last night lost the chairmanship thanks to a group of rogue republicans led by florida congressman matt gaetz and seven other gop members that sided with democrats to remove mccarthy after the historic move, gaetz was asked if his machinations would lead to paralysis on capitol hill . Whats paralyzed the house of representatives has been the failure of Speaker Mccarthy. What paralyzed the house of representatives was not taking up Appropriations Bills because i forced these people to take a few votes, you think im paralyzing the house of representatives . I think the house of representatives has been paralyzed for the last several decades as weve refused to pass a budget. Liz but at least the house could omitter. Right now the house operate. Right now the house is frozen and no work can be done till a new speaker is chosen. Bring in former House Speaker republican Newt Gingrich that worked with a democratic president bill clinton to put into motion a balanced budget that led to something we havent seen since newt and that would be a budget surplus. The dust from last nights historic and explosive vote is barely settling but you want to get to scalise and jordan. Scalise and jordan very well liked and solid. Jordan is a tough fire brand. Im not asking you to choose, but does one have an advantage over the other . What are you hearing . I dont know. I dont listen that carry to whats going on so i cant tell you and im not sure anybody knows right now. Certainly Steve Scalise, thats very well liked has the advantage of being that majority leader and probably more of the institutional leader. On the other hand everybody recognizes jim jordan is very tough, very conservative, has been remarkably effective as a Judiciary Committee chairman. So the party in part has to kind of choose which style does it want. I think scalise would be very would be pretty tough but would be more inclined to a more reasonable tone and jordan very aggressive and very prepared to take on biden and take on the senate. So which does the house conference feel more comfortable getting through the rest of congress and which can help gain the 20 or 30 seats they need next year if they can effectively govern despite having occasional eruption by people who are irresponsible. Liz irresponsible and last night you called matt gaetz and the seven other republicans who joined democrats to vote out Speaker Mccarthy, you called them traitors and said specifically they are actively destructive to the conservative movement and that they should be primaried out, driven out of public life. I like people that take a stand or do you care to take any of that back . No, its straightforward. Im a fan of georgia, Number One Team in the country. If they were playing michigan or alabama and all of a sudden the offensive guard turned and tackled his own quarterback. What would you do with him . For all of his ranking and raving, gaetz sided with the Democratic Party 96 of the House Republicans vo voted with mccarthy. 24 republicans voted with mccarthy for every republican who voted with gaetz and yet gaetz had the arrogance, the moral certainty, the sense of superior patriotism that he was prepared to side with the democrats. Thats what happened. They gave the democrats the vote to beat mccarthy. Now, i dont know how thats an advantage if youre a republican, and doesnt strike nerve nucleus that those guys currently should be considered republican. At a minimum, they should be required a sign a public pledge they will not vote for anything like this for the rest of this congress if theyre going to be allowed back in the republican conference. Otherwise why have them in the room. If they reserve the right to destroy the room every time theyre unhappy, theres no point in them being in the republican conference. Liz newt, were barreling toward another Government Shutdown when the continuing resolution of expires november 17th. How can any party govern with this weight of a side show going on that has definitely hurt the perception of the Republican Party among republicans, forget the democrats . Well, look, they cant. Thats why in the end after mccarthy brought up two very conservative continuing resolutions. One had 8 cut and people like gaetz vote it had down. Another had a 30 cut and plus it had the republican bill for the border, for controlling the border and gaetz and his friends vote that had down. By the way, the 19 republicans who were in biden districts who are supposedly moderates. They all voted for these. Not gaetz and his friends. I think in the worst case, the radicals will force the next speak tore do exactly what speaker to do what mccarthy did and go to the democrats and find a bipartisan agreement and you cant have the whole government collapse because of seven or eight people. Liz one of gaetzs friends, you talk about friends, is reportedly a donald trump who has been supportive. Troy nils, the congressman from texas said he will nominate donald trump for the speakership. Do you see under any circumstance that happening . No. Look. Thatd be silly and trump is not a silly man. The fact is the person who is speaker of the house has to be a member of the house for practical reasons, not because its constitutionally required but because youve got to listen to all your colleagues. This is not like being president where you appoint the cabinet and fire it. In the house, you have 435 independently elected members. You have to earn 218 vo vo v vod cant demand demand them and i dont know how any outdoorer could be successful as speaker. Liz mr. Gingrich, thank you very much. Hes making headlines here saying a u. S. Government shut down would not affect the double a rating of sovereignty here in the United States and saying the Government Shutdown cannot ruled out. Lets see what happens here. Goldman sachs is concerned about all this. Ask our floor show trader serge guilfoyle who is an economist. Jeff of double line note that had buy the t bill and chill. And note that had the d inverting of the yield curve could be a recession warning. I used to hear that yield curve inversion was a recession warning, but explain to our viewers what d inverting or uninverting means and why it matters to the investor out there . Hes 100 correct. Often the yield curve will invert year and a half up to two years before the actual recession and as you go into the recession, its not very rare at all to uninvert or see whats happening right now. Right now theres a bit of run away Interest Rates at long end of the curve. Thats because we have growth and because we have a debt problem and because our fiscal policy has been so irresponsible for so long and you just cover that had issue. Now we have actual free market price discovery in the bond market getting past the short end. Liz lets see the 30 year, folks, if we can put that up. Go ahead, serge. Okay. Go ahead, sarge. Okay. I see another six months and not going crazy but if we get into late 23 or early 24 and see recession natural rights approach behavior from the economy, the fed will be forced to pressure the short end of the curve lower and this will probably finish off my own and never been to more equities in my career. Liz to that end . That goes back to the 80s. Liz youre buying some and talk about wells fargo, key bank and you added more and expecting to add more before next week. This is one area where im not sure, okay. I do see with the banks, with the yield curve uninverting is a tremendous country here for improved guidance on Net Interest Margin and may have a bit of a rush to the upside after these guys report and after they go through their postearnings calls and you might have a little pop in the banks. Now, i also see the possibility for banks getting crushed on the commercial real estate side. Not telling people get into banks and stay into bankers. Theyre cheap and undervalued and its probably a good time to get long on banks for a little while. Liz you trimmed disney and raytheon. A line on raytheon and youve been pounding the table on that one on this show for a while. Why are you trimming . Breaks my heart to get rid of a defense contractor. Liz discipline. Discipline. I love those stocks and love what they co. I have an 8 rule i live by. When ive promised myself a long time ago through trial and error i would never lose more than 8 persian on a position for the rest of my life. Unless it happens while im asleep, if im down 8 on a stock, i liquidate or pull shenanigans for bringing revenue on the Options Market that will improve my net basis to where im no longer down 8 but i have to stake some kind of sachs down 8 on the stock. Liz dont fall in love with the stock some say. Others like buffet say fall in love, buy t and never say. Thank you, sarge. Cogent and upward mobility of the most active in the tech space and Company Strikes Software Deals to the tune of hundreds of billions. In a fox business exclusive and Orlando Bravo here live in studio on whether hes jumping into ai, whether he sees warning signs or green lights for private equity, and hes going to address a moodys call that says private equity could cause systemic problems in the United States. Dont go away. 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Now you can stream all your games like its nothing. Yes [ cheers ] yeah woho running up and down that field looks tough. Its a pitch. Get way more into what youre into when you stream on the xfinity 10g network. Hi, im jason and ive lost 202 pounds on golo. So the first time i ever seen a golo advertisement, i said, yeah, whatever. Theres no way this works like this. And threw it to the side. A couple weeks later, i seen it again after getting not so pleasant news from my physician. I was 424 pounds, and my doctor was recommending weight loss surgery. To avoid the surgery, i had to make a change. So i decided to go with golo and its changed my life. When i first started golo and taking release, my cravings, they went away. And i was so surprised. You feel that your body is working and functioning the way it should be and you feel energized. Golo has improved my life in so many ways. Im able to stand and actually make dinner. Im able to clean my house. Im able to do just simple tasks that a lot of people call simple, but when youre extremely heavy theyre not so simple. Golo is real and when you take release and follow the plan, it works. Equity industry has long claim it had does not pose Systemic Risk to the u. S. Economy but Credit Ratings agency moody says not so fast. Things could be changing. According to a new report, moodies now expects a race to the bottom between banks and private credit funds financing what they call risky leverage buyouts. Banks are starting to up their p lending hit for those kinds of deals and facing competition from the 1. 5 trillion private credit and moody thinks that perfect storm of event causing prices and terms and credit quality to erode and fuel risk. We know what risk did in 2007 and 2008, the financial crisis and pe firms using private chet is not new though. Private equity thoma bravo overseen 450 acquisitions and fund the 8 billion purchase of cupa software and Orlando Bravo is here in fox business exclusive. What do you think of the warning flag . Liz, thanks for having me and great to be here. Liz great to have you. Look, i want to establish this onset and people not putting in the capital, owner, private equity firm and management invests greatly in the doles and have an overleaf deals and have an overleveraged situation and the lenders are smart. Theyre not going to just jump in with over capital theyre responsible for to overlever a company. Now, a company can be overlevered when it misses its numbers. Liz thats true. I could see in the current environment where things have slowed down and cost of capital is higher, Interest Rates is higher and base rate is higher. I can see situation where is Companies May have trouble meeting their payments. Now, the key reason why there is no Systemic Risk in private equities. It means whole system. Liz takes it down like a whole domino. Private equity firms are so different from one another. Liz didnt i hear this during the housing right before the housing bubble burst, everybody said oh, it cant trigger terrible recession if the market were to turn because it takes too long to unwind or sell a home and then sure enough, we saudis aster. Youre saying in we saudis saw disaster and youre saying in perfect situation and atmosphere, things will be fine and even problematic events global, economic, whatever. Still, these companies should be able to make their payments. Now, i cannot predict a recession. Nobody can predict a recession. Whether itll be a soft landing or not. What we do for the owners of companies and an example is early 2022 and we saw a booking slow down in the report and what we do is assume that theres going to be a deep recession. And were overly conservative and rather than overly optimistic and we run our companies and we go back and take up more cost so that we ensure our same level of profitability in a lower Business Environment and that way theres a deep recession and youre not surprised. Theres reason you can invest and what im saying about this systemic point and systemic means the whole system and not put into a whole system and theres some firms and theres industries being different ways of creating the system. Liz the Due Diligence and youre known at thoma bravo and where do you see opportunity right now. It looks good and what is valued in most deliciously at the moment and youre ready to take bites. Its an Incredible Opportunity for Business Owners, and i call private equity Business Owners and let me tell you why. This is an unbelievable time to build a business. The Financial Markets are in disarray, Interest Rates are going up, things are slowing down. Its a very difficult macro but as a business owner, you can really focus on what matters, build better processes, be

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