How Eritrea Won Ethiopia’s War Against Tigray It would do the international community well to curtail Isaias Afewerki’s malign influence before he brings additional chaos to the Horn of Africa, much as he did in his own country. Ethiopia, the second-most populous country in Africa, is in danger of balkanization. With the current ethnic wars between the Tigrayans, Amharas, and Oromos, Abiy Ahmed’s regime is incapable of bringing stability and economic prosperity to Ethiopia. Instead, his regime is indebted to the benevolence of the Machiavellian Marxist dictator in Eritrea, Isaias Afewerki. At a meager operational cost, Afewerki is the strategic winner from the turmoil in Ethiopia. He was able to accomplish three goals: the balkanization of Ethiopia by flaming ethnic conflict; the removal of the Tigray People Liberation Front (TPLF) regime from the political scene; and the delegitimization of Abiy Ahmed’s government domestically and internally by creating an Ethiopia that is ungovernable. Moreover, the marriage of convenience between Ahmed and Afewerki gave Afewerki a window of opportunity to impose strategic military and geopolitical costs at the expense of Ahmed’s regime and, most importantly, Ethiopia.