1991 or the invasion of iraq, post 9/11 incidents, all of that, none of that compares to this in terms of a massive social, political and probably economic upheefl. we are watching the beginning of this, but we have no idea where it's going to go and how it's going to end. anybody that tells you that he or she does know that is being fanciful. >> can you get a sense of how long this mid east upheaval has been percolating? has it been simmering under the surface for a while? can you point to anything that was the catalyst for having things erupt? >> yeah, it has been brewing for a long time. really, what's hapg happened is there is a huge generational divide that many analysts did not understand, including me. we saw there were problems with unemployment. we understood that there was a huge youth quake or youth bulge