Rise. Without continued vigilance, well again create the conditions that led to us being the worst affected country. How many deaths and how much suffering are you willing to accept to get back to some form of normality. Economic adviser larry kudlow. And Liz Ann Sonders and Neel Kashkari. Top pharmaceutical executives will join us on the latest search on covid vaccines and treatments and all of the weeks politics with Chris Christie and rahm emanuel on our powerhouse round table. Announcer from abc news, its this week. Here now, chief anchor George Stephanopoulos. Good morning and welcome to ek that set somef e worst records ever for the rnin 20. 5 million americans lost their jobs in april, tentimes the record set in 1945 when the country demobilized from world war ii. The Unemployment Rate jumped to 14. 7 . Just three months ago, unemployment was at a record low of 3. 5 . And as stunning as those numbers are, they dont capture the depth of the damage, adding workers looking for fulltime jobs, the furloughed who hope to get their old jobs back and more than 1 in 4 americans are out of work. The lines at food banks are heartbreaking. We can all hope the economy can bounce back. Investors seem to be betting on it. By the close of business friday the stock market was building on some of its best weeks in decades. So what is wall street seeing that americans arent yet feeling . How long will the recovery take . What must we do to make sure it happens . And we start with the president s economic adviser, larry kudlow. Lar larry, thank you for joining us this morning. I do want to get to the economy, but first, this news breaking overnight, we know that two white house staffers have tested positive for covid. Doctors fauci, redfield and hahn are all selfquarantining. Will you follow their example . Well take the advice of the white house medical unit. There may be, i dont want to rule anything in or out at the moment, theres daily testing as you may know for people who come into contact with the president and the Vice President. Everybody wants to be safe. Were going to do the best we can. Well follow the rules and guidelines of the white house medical unit. You just said you had the best medical unit in the country, no doubt thats true, youre getting tests every single day at the white house, anyone whos in contact with the president. Doesnt that really expose the challenge for everyone else in the country right now, if the white house is not fully safe despite those conditions, how can average americans feel safe with the idea of going back to work . Well, look, i dont want to generalize from it, although i dont have all the numbers. I havent seen that yet. In terms of the white house complex, which is an enormous place, at least 500 people probably much more than that, george. Those who have tested positive is still small fraction, again, i dont know the specific numbers but we have had relatively very few. And look, i think the key point here, we have establisheduideliouhek fot are establishing guidelines, i think that businesses, large and small, are probably going to wind up leading this charge as we attempt to reopen the economy and deal with these heartbreaking jobs numbers. Which are awful. So my point is, why dont we rely heavily on what the businesses, the Free Enterprise system can produce, companies are very innovative, they know the job that has to be done. They know on the one hand, folks have to be safe, must be safe, and they know on the other hand we have to have some reopening as much as possible to deal with the economic problem the pandemic contraction as i call it. I think between public and private Health Systems we can do this, i guess about half the states are off to a phasedin start. Thats a good sign. Safety is absolutely crucial. But its not either or. You know, i think economy, i think it goes hand in hand. Lets talk about those devastating jobs numbers. The president said on friday, that all these jobs will be back, is that a realistic promise, is that a promise the president can keep . Well, look, several things. Number one, as bad as those jobs numbers were, and i dont want to sugarcoat it, because i think the numbers for may are going to be very difficult numbers. Its going to take a while for the reopening to have an impact. So theres that. The second point is, inside the numbers, theres a glimmer of hope i dont want to downplay the numbers theres a glimmer of hope, we had about 80 of it was furloughs and temporary layoffs, that by the way doesnt ensure that youll go back to a e businesgly thatrdeten theorr ink hopelly that has you know, allin on this we we probably including the federal reserves operations and the budget and fiscal work that the president has led, we probably had 9 trillion worth of assistance going to 175 it has million individuals. Its a remarkable plan to attempt to stabilize. It has been an extraordinary response from the government and the fed. Now House Democrats led by speaker pelosi, they need about another 2 trillion plan, aid to state and local governments, much more testing, more direct aid, like unemployment insurance, food stamps, direct checks. Yet, you and the president have said nows not the time to be dealing with that, why not . Well, im not saying nows not the time. I think many people would like to just pause for a moment and take a look at the Economic Impact of this massive assistance program, which is the greatest in the United States history. That a thatbeing said. Now, i was reading in some papers this morning that theres no talks between lets say the white house and the democrats, thats simply not true, theres no formal negotiations yet, i say yet, but in fact on friday, kevin hassett, my colleague in the white house, and i did a Conference Call with about 40 house members, democrats and republicans, george, and were scheduled to have a similar Conference Call tomorrow. And on the senate side, democrats and republicans were collecting iaseps which will undoubtedly be data driven. I do think there are issues here and there are probably going to be some agreements or distreatments, each side has its own positions. Its not that were not talking, we are and its just informal at this stage. Really after all this assistance, lets have a look at what the impact is in the next couple of weeks on the economy. We have heard from former president obama for the first time on his take on how the white house has responded to this crisis, lets listen. Its been an absolute chaotic disaster when that mindset of whats in it for me and to heck with everybody else when that mindset is operationalized in our government . Your response . With all due to respect to the former president , i really dont want to get into a political back and forth here. I dont know what hes talking about. With all the assistance weve done, with all the infrastructure that we the trump administration, working with governors and mayors, and with congress, with respect to testing, with respect to all manner of ppe, medical equipment, with respect to ventilators, you know, President Trump one thing shouldnt be lost here, he has, and its unusual in these emergency situations, hes made great use of the private sector talking about that earlier in terms of reopening in a safe manner, you know we have relied very heavily on the smartest people in this country who run retail operations, pharmaceutical companies, biotech companies, Automobile Companies producing ventilators at a rapid rate, we ramped up the testing. We have the Worlds Largest testing percentages by far. I dont understand what president obama is saying. It just sounds so darn political to me. Look, what we have done may not be 100 perfect. You know, these things happen once every 100 years but the overall picture is, we created a Massive Health and safety infrastructure to deal with the pandemic here in the United States and judging from the results, where there has been a flattening in the rate of growth of infection rates and mortality rates, its working, so were preparing to reopen the economy. When we do, i think, according to cbo well see a very strong second half of the year. Probably 20 economic growth. Larry policies that were in place on lower taxes and lower regulations are still in place. We may expand on those policies with the congress. Next year, 2021 could be a tremendous snapback in the u. S. Economy. Im going to leave president obama alone. I just want to make the case thats the prevailing consensus right now. Larry kudlow, thank you for your time this morning. Appreciate it. Lets get more on all this of the president of the Minneapolis Federal reserve bank Neel Kashkari and Liz Ann Sonders. This tremendous rise off the bottoms of the stock market over the last three weeks even as we have seen these absolutely recordbreaking unemployment numbers, can you explain this great disconnect to the American People . Probably not fully. Everything thats been happening both in the economy given that it was a Government Shutdown by fiat effectively in order to s, and also the warp speed in which we saw the stimulus kick in both by the fed and congress, we moved into bear market territory at a recordbreaking pace. I think at the lows, when the market was down 35 you could argue that it was pricing in the type of economic carnage that were seeing right now. I think the rally since that low, the speed in which we retrieved that, reflects a couple of things one, the stimulus, that represents more than a quarter of gdp and two, i think its on the assumption that the market is looking through sort of the valley and that maybe april will be the worst month, the inflection point, i think theres some risks associated with that. You got the potential second wave of the virus, so i think the speed that the market rebounded does now present some risks. I think everything is happening in a much more condensed time frame. No question about that. Neel, we see the Market Pricing in that relatively rapid sustained recovery you just heard larry kudlow saying, he expects a very strong second half of 2020 and a roaring 2021, is that realistic . I wish it were. This is more likely to be a slow, more gradual recovery. Unfortunately the virus continues to spread. People continue to get it. Unfortunately people are tragically dying. When we look around the world, theres evidence when countries relax their economic controls the virus tends to flare back up again. The more this goes on the gradual the recovery will be. If we see Companies Going through bankruptcy, empty strip malls for a while until new businesses form, the economic recovery takes longer. I loved to see robust economy, that would require a breakthrough in vaccine, widespread testing, a breakthrough in therapies to give all of us confidence that its safe to go back. I dont know when well have that confidence. Ultimately the American People will decide how long the shutdown is. Right, and well be talking about that later in the program. But in the meantime, we have seen this extraordinary response from the fed and the federal government right now. You heard kudlow said it could add up to about 9 trillion, what more should we do as a fed governor, what are you recommending the fed do right now and will we need another congressional package . The fed is standing behind the Financial System, clearly, to make sure that the Financial System continues to run. This is first and foremost a healthcare crisis. Anything congress can do to support more investment in those Technology Breakthroughs will be money well spent. Number two, if this goes on for a long period of time, i think its going to go in some phase for a year or two. Think congress will have to give assistance. As you said, its really around 23 , 24 of people right now who are out of work today. If this is gradual recovery the way i think its going to be, those people are going to need more help. And liz ann, what are advice are you going to your customers right now about to think about this market in this economy . Again, were reminding them that the speed with which the atasned sie en, lded, the rally can apply the same kind of logical thinking around investment that applies in this shortterm environment, hopefully you had a plan, you werent winging it, diversification across economic classes, and then use the ability and benefits of rebalancing. So trimming into strength and adding into weakness, just staying on the right side of the trade. Those tried and true disciplines. Too many investors think that the only path to success requires top picking and bottom ticking. Thats gambling on a moment in time. Even when whats happening is in a more condensed frame of time and thats the best advice we can give in this environment. Finally, Neel Kashkari, you have access to the best economic information in the world. What should everyone be expecting over the next several months as we wait for effective treatments, vaccines, treasury secretary Steve Mnuchin this morning is saying that unemployment could go as high as 25 . Yeah, the worst is yet to come on the job front unfortunately. Its really going to be, as these states start to reopen, and as thee these businesses start to reopen, obviously we need to reopen safely and we need to monitor and look for signs of things flaring back up. We may have to clamp back down again as the virus continues to spread. To solve the economy we must solve the virus. Lets never lose sight of that fact. Neel kashkari and Liz Ann Sonders, thanks very much. Roundtable is up next. Well be right back. [woman hummi g to all you need is love and instrumental music] love is all you need. Unlike ordinary wmemory supplementsr . Neuriva has clinically proven ingredients that fuel 5 indicators of brain performance. Memory, focus, accuracy, learning, and concentration. Try neuriva for 30 days and see the difference. And wells fargo employees are assisting millions of customers never before across america through fee waivers and payment deferrals, helping people stay in their homes through mortgage Payment Relief efforts and donating 175 Million Dollars to help hundreds of local organizations provide food and other critical needs. When you need us, wells fargo is here to help. 16. laughter how many pints of iced tea are left in the pitcher . Times. Ten. So, wait. errhhhhh do you want to show us the continents on the. No. It is not going good. My mom is getting stressed out. speaks hebrew mommas tired. I, im, like. Woooo. screams sighs heavily so, starting just quickly by breathing in. I never thought id say this, but i kind of miss school the teachers, i mean, yall are gifted people i thank you so much for what youre doing. Their investment into our children is beyond what we can even imagine. Appreciate all that you do. Home fragrances with exotic pairings. Warm vanilla and himalayan magnolia tropical pineapple and tunisian rosemary and its responsibly sourced. New botanica by air wick. Now at target. This was an artificial turning off of a tremendous economy. When we turned it back on, which we just started doing, i think its going to come back blazing. St chance to year is one of the econically. Hardeand will last longer because donald trump spent the last three years undermining the core pillars of our economic strength. Incumbent president s rise and fall on the strength of economy. So, does record unemployment spell doom for President Trump come november . Or does this unprecedented covid crisis upend all the patterns . We asked fivethirtyeights nate silver to weigh in. So the conventional wisdom is if the economy is in bad shape thats really bad news for the incumbent, and thats backed up by a lot of data, a dismal economy ousted jimmy carter in 1980, the recession under george h. W. Bush ended in 1991, but the economy was still back in 1992. Even though bush junior wasnt on the ballot after the financial crisis in 2008 it led to a landslide against republicans up and down the ballot. With gdp projected to decline at 40 annualized rate this quarter, and unemployment having already reached almost 15 , were in for an incredibly severe economic shock. Many voters will think of this wartime, theres a lot of disrurpgs in the economy and elsewhere but there can be patriotism and the incumbent can do well. In fact, voters in this recent polls, give President Trump above 50 for his handling of the economy. But trumps Approval Rating for his response to covid has been 44 and falling each week. sjobiden in key ng swing states like michigan and pennsylvania. Do i buy this is business as usual . This is a unique situation. To fit statistical models. Doesnt mean the news is good for trump, if voters dont like his response to covid hard to think a tanking economy will save him. Okay, lets get more on this from our roundtable. Were joined by Chris Christie, rahm emanuel, julie pace and axios political reporter alexi mccammond. Thank you for all joining us this morning. Chris, let me begin with you, you know, if you just look at the Economic News alone, this is something that no politician really could survive, but how does President Trump upend the conventional wisdom again . Well, i think, george, its just an unprecedented event, right, as nate just said. We havent had Something Like this in over a hundred years. So i dont think any of us know how this is going to play politically. If were expecting some sharp economic recovery by election day, well see some economic recovery by election day. So i think what the presiden