Larry Berman: Credit markets not pricing economic risks corr

Larry Berman: Credit markets not pricing economic risks correctly


Larry Berman: Credit markets not pricing economic risks correctly
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The continued saga over the central bank printing press is creating a degree of moral hazard never seen before. In the S&P 500, there are about 10 per cent of companies that do not earn enough to cover their interest payments and about 150 that are not investment grade. These are being kept alive by cheap money—and this was all happening before COVID.
The numbers are worse today, though implied support from the central bank makes the risks involved with owning weak companies very distorted. High yield spreads should probably be several hundred basis points wider than they are today without the implied support. But don’t worry, just buy what the U.S. Federal Reserve says they will buy and don’t fight the Fed. Central bank policies are creating a massive asset bubble, but there is no telling when it breaks. When they think about thinking about pulling back, look out below.

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