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Larry Berman: What does market breadth tell us about when to 'buy the dip'?


Larry Berman: What does market breadth tell us about when to buy the dip ?
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All my valuation models are still off-the-charts extreme, which means that longer-term, forward-based returns are likely well below average and correction risks are elevated. Economic conditions overall are supported by massive expectations for more stimulus and central bank support.
This could, and maybe should, last into 2022, but you can already see that massive stimulus is getting bipartisan pushback. There is also a funding problem. The U.S. Federal Reserve is not buying enough and that can hurt inflated asset markets.
You can’t be bullish about this, but it can continue to support the economy for as long as it lasts, and it has thus far. ....

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Larry Berman: Credit markets not pricing economic risks correctly


Larry Berman: Credit markets not pricing economic risks correctly
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The continued saga over the central bank printing press is creating a degree of moral hazard never seen before. In the S&P 500, there are about 10 per cent of companies that do not earn enough to cover their interest payments and about 150 that are not investment grade. These are being kept alive by cheap money—and this was all happening before COVID.
The numbers are worse today, though implied support from the central bank makes the risks involved with owning weak companies very distorted. High yield spreads should probably be several hundred basis points wider than they are today without the implied support. But don’t worry, just buy what the U.S. Federal Reserve says they will buy and don’t fight the Fed. Central bank policies are creating a massive asset bubble, but there is no telling when it breaks. When they think about thinking about pulling back, look out be ....

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Larry Berman: Liquidity-driven market about to have less liquidity


Larry Berman: Liquidity-driven market about to have less liquidity
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With major moves in global equities being influenced by central bank liquidity, the markets may now require fiscal policy to extend recent gains. This phenomenon has a name: the equity risk premium (ERP). Basically, it’s the excess return in stocks relative to the risk-free rate. So there’s an imbalance in fundamental supply and demand of the cost of money.
This analysis from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) was last done in September, well before the latest US$2.8 trillion in additional spending, funding bills and proposals in the U.S. The CBO projected an 8.6-per-cent GDP deficit in 2021 before the new spending. The required funding in 2021 is now in excess of about US$4 trillion, and about US$2.5 trillion more than the U.S. Federal Reserve is currently buying. That money needs to come from somewhere and while taxes will go up, they will not likely be doing so th ....

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Larry Berman: Speculation in call volume hits all-time extremes


Larry Berman: Speculation in call volume hits all-time extremes
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With options expiring this week, we wanted to have a look at the impact it’s having on markets. It’s huge. In the past week we have seen all-time call volume records challenged (viewers can follow the CBOE data here). It seems the new stimulus cheques are finding their way into Tesla Inc. call options and others. Speculators have had a voracious appetite (call it FOMO plus leverage) and they have been using call spreads and other speculative strategies to add huge leverage. This effect gets magnified around options expiry dates. ....

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Larry Berman: Valuation for U.S. large caps has never been higher


Larry Berman: Valuation for U.S. large caps has never been higher
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Historically, the last show of the year I do my fearless forecast for the coming year. This year, it is a bleak from a pure valuation perspective. But from a liquidity perspective, it’s up, up, and away.
Our first table shows the Street has an average 23.69 multiple on 172.50 gives you an average S&P 500 target of 4085 for yearend 2021. JP Morgan is the high at 4,400 with several at the low of 3,800. The historic average is 16.5 and even if we account for the cheap cost of money and call it a 20x fair value multiple, we struggle to get to 3,500. The market closed last week above 3,700. ....

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