Fighting. Genuine drama across the country as the frontrunner for the republican nomination indicted on 91 felonies. Nevertheless, remains the prohibited favorite. I want to start by thanksing the Supreme Court. And his final primary opponent says justice should proceed. Tonight Special Election coverage. Nicole wallace, joy reid, jen psaki, Lawrence Odonnell, Stephanie Ruhle all here. Hakeem jefferies joining us. Mitch landreau plus the Campaign Experts and Steve Kornacki with results and analysis a the the big board. The election of 2024 has kind of taken shape. Special election of Super Tuesday primaries begins now. Its here. Its finally happening. Its super. Good evening and welcome. Thank you for joining us. It is Super Tuesday. I havent slept in a week. Im Rachel Maddow and nicole wallace, youre back. Weve missed you so much. And ari melber. Many more of our colleagues are going to be joining us throughout the very, very long, awesome, interesting night. America has not had a rerun of the same two president ial candidates in backtoback subsequent elections since 1956 when the incumbent president Dwight Eisenhower beat his democratic challenger adley stevenson. Eisenhower won by kind of a lot. When they ran Stevenson Against Eisenhower again in the next election in 56, eisenhower won again except he won by more. Nevertheless, the Republican Party seems poised to nominate the same candidate again but donald trump does have a Republican Primary opponent who is, as of this moment, holding on. Tonight is an important one for her. We will have more on that. Its 6 p. M. On the east coast and voters are casting ballots. We are just getting our first Super Tuesday results though from iowa. In iowa the Democratic Caucus has never been on Super Tuesday before tonight. Famously iowa is the first in the nation and it goes on january. This year it was conducted by mail. We have gotten the results and we have a call. Tonight we have the call. Joe biden has won the Iowa Democratic caucus. All the suspense is over there. Incumbent President Biden is universally expected to clean up in states like iowa and in all of tonights democratic primaries. The first real votes out of iowa. Well go to our friend Steve Kornacki to see if theres anything more we should understand. President biden faces only token opposition, the democratic contest, as you know, it basically looks like what it looks like when an incumbent president runs for reelection. So far President Bidens Delegate Count is 246 delegates for him and 2 or uncommitted. On the republican side with 15 States Holding gop nominations tonight, just over 1 3 of all of the delegates are at stake. Nikki haley won her first primary in washington, d. C. If she has a chance of winning any other contests tonight, her campaign is expecting the best chances actually in the two states that are going to close their polls first. Right at the end of this hour. Virginia and especially vermont they think are nikki haileys best chances. Below the president ial though theres a whole lot going on down ballot. For the u. S. Senate seat once held by the late Dianne Feinstein in california, democrats and republicans will run against each other in the same Jungle Primary. On the democratic side, there are three well respected, talented members on the ballot along with the republicans competing for it as well. Tonights Senate Primary in california will determine whether the General Election for the senate seat will be between a democrat and republican or could it be an Intraparty Battle between two of those powerhouse democrats . We will learn that tonight in california. Primaries will set the profile for the highest governors race. The governor of North Carolina has a history of Holocaust Denial. He said the moon landing may have been faked. He said beyonce is say tan anything. The Civil Rights Movement is, i quote, cracked. His name is Mark Robinson. His track record is out there even by the standards of todays Republican Party. That is really saying something. That said North Carolina republicans may choose him as their candidate for governor. We shall see. The likely democratic candidate for governor in North Carolina would be that states Attorney General who has twice been elected statewide in North Carolina even though in both of those elections donald trump won North Carolina on the same ballot. So we shall see. North carolina should be fascinating tonight. Polls will close there very soon, 7 30 p. M. Eastern. A whole bunch of congressional races and house primaries setting the stage for november. We havent been focusing on the Balance Of Power in congress but it is tenuous. The house is in the hands of the republicans thanks to the tiniest margin that you can imagine, two seats. It is entirely possible tonight, it is even likely tonight that there will be more than two House Members who lose their seats in primary contests during our coverage this evening. So, as with every Election Night, we do not know exactly what to expect but we know enough to expect to be surprised. Lets start with Steve Kornacki at the big board. Steve, we already got our first result tonight in iowa. Is there anything we should know about that . What else are you looking forward to covering over the course of the night . I would love to create some drama but the story is there is no story. Getting the results from the state party and filling in the counties. You might see them start to light up filling them in. We think this is basically it for iowa. An eventless democratic primary. 91 for joe biden. He will get all 40 delegates as you show it right there. Thats what the Delegate Count will look like when all is said and done. We can shift to the republican side. Lets go through the night here and some of the things were looking at in Chronological Order here. The states that are going to be voting on the republican side. On the left you see the Delegate Count coming into tonight. The magic number on the republican side is 1215 to actually formally clinch the republican nomination. Two Poll Closings. The first one is in the State Of Vermont. Vermont is an interesting state tonight. What you see are these counties. They report out by city and town in vermont. Thats why you see so many municipalities on this map. A couple of things to know about vermont. Lets take a look back at the 2016 Republican Primary results. The first time he ran for president He Won Vermont but barely won. He got 32. 5 . Nipping on his heels was john kasich. Vermont is a deep blue state in General Elections. Its an open primary. No party registration. Anybody who wants to vote in this Republican Primary can vote in it. Theres a moderate republican governor in vermont who has been outspoken in his criticism of donald trump. Phil scott. A lot of this adds up to a lot of the ingredients nikki haley needs on paper to be competitive in a state. There are 17 delegates in vermont. Its going to be a theme in all states. Its effectively a winner take all states. If somebody gets 50 of the votes plus one they get all of the delegates. In a lot of states there are candidates who have dropped out, minor candidates on the ballot. A close situation both could come under 50. Basically these thresholds make states like vermont winner take all states. There are areas of strength on paper for trump. Vermont has a large by vermont standards Working Class, a white population. White people without College Degrees in rural areas. This area in vermont. They call it the Northeast Kingdom. This is a culturally distinct area of vermont. It was friendly towards barack obama but shifted towards donald trump. A section that got more republican with donald trump and stayed that way in 2020. Expect trump to rack up big margins here. Well see. Vermont is an interesting contest. The other state where polls are closing less than an hour from now is virginia. The same as vermont. Very unimpressive. Rubio at 32 . Rubio thought he was going to win but he came very close. Theres a big split. The Northern Suburbs of washington, d. C. , and the suburbs of richmond and to some extent down into Virginia Beach area versus a few independent cities, the rest of the state. There are collectively large rural Working Class white populations. Shenandoah valley. In the Population Centers outside of washington, d. C. , Out Of Richmond you have the haley friendly, college plus, suburbanite voters. Look here, haileys biggest bright spot this primary season was over the weekend when she won the washington Republican Primary. She did win her. Whats notable, one thing weve been tracking in the states just as a benchmark in state to state, the republican electorate is overwhelmingly white. Weve been looking at the white population. The college Noncollege Divide has been huge in the elections. Washington, d. C. , the white population of washington, d. C. , 91 has at least a Fouryear College degree. Thats as haley friendly a number as youre going to see anywhere. It explains the result in d. C. Whats interesting about virginia, lets zoom in here outside of washington, d. C. Geographically this is tiny. If you go inside Arlington County way back, way, way, way back was actually part of d. C. So its this has really built up. This is d. C. Extended in arlington, the City Of Alexandria right here. Theres Congressional Districts in virginia. Delegates are given out by Congressional District for some of the virginia vote. Its virginias eighth district. The White Votership has a College Degree. Its 80 , not quite d. C. s level. Three delegates in that district. Haley, i think shed be favored on paper to win in the eighth district. Also here in Fairfax County, which is the bigger piece of real estate here, big, densely populated areas, most of Fairfax County, fairfax city in it, the 11th Congressional District. 7 p 5 of the white population, College Degrees. These are some of the highest numbers youll see in the suburbs. Loudoun county, we talked a lot about that in the 2021 republican primaries. Just under 60 of the vote in that district that fits that haley profile. What does that add up to in virginia . Three Congressional Districts that haley has a chance to win. If she can get a lot of crossover vote. Virginia is an open primary. If they dont like trump and consider themselves independent, if they flood the polls in that part of the state around richmond, could that be enough to put the state in play for nikki haley . Thats one to watch. You go into it tonight on paper, they are likely. In a dream scenario, shes on her way to winning vermont and shes looking like she might have a shot to win virginia. That would be the shot she wants and that would open up other possibilities later in the night we can talk about. These are very good benchmarks in vermont and virginia and North Carolina at 7 30. In these states if haley is performing very, very strongly, that could tell us something. If she isnt, that could tell us something, too. This is a little bit of a down and dirty question about the results youre talking about. Thinking about the whole country looking at her Campaign Thinking of tonight as a crucible. One of the things she has to be wondering is does vermont count fast . Does virginia count fast . Are these results that are going to come in at 3 this morning and were going to have seen a whole lot of bloodletting or are these results with a pretty early idea . Virginia overall is an efficient count. That race was very competitive if you recall, youngkin, mccall live. We had enough to call the state before midnight. If you are asking a haley specific question, at this Point Lickically in virginia, some of the last places to report. The closer you get to washington, d. C. , the longer the wait has been. Maybe that has changed. Maybe were in for a surprise. Its going to be the trump areas that would report earlier in virginia and Haley Chipping away at that. That would be close. We got ourselves in the 2020 election, one of the ways that we prepare for Election Nights the General ElectionElection Night was thinking about the red mirage. Thinking about what peoples perceptions were going to be often the course of the night based on which results were likely to come in first. Mailin vote, early vote versus day of vote. There might be tiny microscopic version of that tonight in terms of a haley mirage with her two best states coming in early. Nicole, so happy to have you back. Im still getting my sea legs on the daytoday news. Youve all taken time off to write books you really get hit on the side of the head with the forest. For me, theres something so heavy about what covering what could be the last election. Trump is running on what he said, quote, ill be a dictadic. The very preciousness, the reason were all here tonight, the reason we all sit together on these nights is because theres something ma guess stick about over to you, voter, one isnt running on a promise to have elections at all. When tim snyder said that, you may be voting to never vote again, that may be the vote that you cast is to never cast another vote again. Whats the responsibility that the, you know, authoritarian has to you as a person whos never, ever going to come back to you for your vote. Yeah. Just the idea that in 16 we were so reliant on investigative journal belism. All of our shows were blown up the minute the times and the post had a massive scoop. Theres nothing to investigate. Trumps platform, this is what hes running from on the stump when he cant string a noun and a verb together. Ari, this is your hour. Were stealing it to be together on your set. No better team. In terms of looking ahead tonight, obviously we know enough to know to expect some surprises. I dont think anybody thinks the republican and democratic parties are going to pick anybody other than the obvious nominees at the end of the day, but nikki haileys fate feels very undecided to me at this point. I definitely dont feel like theres an obvious course when she drops out, if she drops out, what she says when she does, what that means for the course of the race. I feel genuine interest and suspense in terms of what she decides to do with the money shes raised, the voters. Absolutely. Weve seen it morph from. Its something edging towards a wider criticism of protest. That Stuff Matters. Thats the electorate. Then theres the law side and it will be intertwined for the whole year for reasons we know. On the law side, we know something we didnt know. There is not a schedule for donald trump to be convicted of a federal felony by the republican convention. For a long time there were republicans, card carrying republicans, not just somebody in vermont, no feel my email now. People at the wall street journal, people who served in several administrations, people you know who are very conservative who are saying weve got to have a plan b in case he gets convicted. Haley can hold that spot or hold the delegates. Look, july 15th is the republican convention. The Supreme Court has stalled the main case, weve covered that. And the other Jack Hit Documents Case would be at the earliest late summer, maybe later than that. The so