In the history of television, only two of the 100 most watched shows have not been live sporting events, the oscars and the State Of The Union. So as a campaign kickoff, you dont get a bigger platform than joe biden has tonight. But with enormous opportunity come enormous challenges. Can he meet the moment and how . Our team has reporting on what is happening inside the white house right now and the unique unvarnished insights of a former biden Speech Writer. Plus, as the president prepares to address the israelhamas war tonight, conditions in gaza are deteriorating to new lows. Children starving to death. Bright orange bursts of flames as a plane makes an emergency landing, what exactly caused it. An awful lot to get to. We begin with this, among all of the goals President Biden has for tonights State Of The Union address, there is one that rises above all others. Show americans he is still up to the job. Do not expect to hear the words age or energy or focus, but as much or maybe even more than the expected themes of the economy, immigration, and reproductive rights, that is what is on the minds of voters. I think his age isbeginning to show. Hes not a good speech teller, you know. Because of his age, that doesnt mean that hes not intelligent. Yeah, i wish he was younger. So President Biden faces enormously important dual challenges tonight, not just what he wants to get done, but coincing voters he has the ability to get it done. The Campaign Says tonights speech will serve as the first day of a monthlong rollout to the general election. The not so subtle sub text is, vote for me. Talk about high stakes. Nbcs monica alba is reporting from the white house. Also with us, adrienne elrod, eugene daniels, and former republican congressman Carlos Curbelo of florida, an msnbc political analyst. Okay, monica, what do we expect to see and hear from the president tonight as he tries to seize the moment . Chris, the stakes are high. The pressure is on, but you can prepare for a speech like this for days and weeks as the president and his team have been doing, but sometimes it really is those unscripted moments, what you cant possibly anticipate that become the headline out of a speech like tonight. In terms of what is being put from pen to paper, what we can definitely expect to see tonight are some of those themes that the president has been talking about in the context of what he thinks his accomplishments have been in the first three years of this term but what he says is critical to consider if he isnt reelected to four more years in office, and trying to really make clear to the American People whats at stake when it comes to defending democracy, when it comes to defending some personal freedoms and rights, and hes going to contextualize all of that in key areas like immigration, like Reproductive Health care, and youre also going to be seeing some really significant news from a more Foreign Policy perspective. Theres the domestic always in a speech like this, but also the international, and we now know and can report that hes going to be announcing tonight that he is directing an Emergency Mission to build a port off the coast of gaza, a temporary pier in effect to deliver food, water, medicine, and temporary shelters given the humanitarian crisis there. Thats the headline that will also be coming out of the speech tonight, chris. But then you also always have the news around who is in the speech, whos in attendance in terms of the president s guests, and hes going to be using some of their stories to really highlight some of these key issues. Thats something that is notable as well. But chris, this is the latest State Of The Union that weve ever seen in terms of the calendar. Its coming in march. Its coming two days after Super Tuesday, and thats something im told that the white house and the Biden Campaign are welcoming because they think it will help them crystallize this argument of the choice and whats at stake in november in a really high platform way with a very large audience. Adrienne, we always use the phrase high stakes. Here it really applies, but its interesting the Washington Post says that President Bidens biggest challenge tonight is not to give off what they call old man vibes. How does he do that . How does he show the American People i got this . I think, chris, i mean, monica really laid out exactly whats at stake and also what the Biden White House is planning to do tonight, which is really draw a contrast. I think its incredibly smart they decided to do the State Of The Union two days after Super Tuesday when the choice is very clear. It is now a twoperson race effectively between donald trump and joe biden, nikki haley just dropped out. The contrast could not be more clear, and i think joe biden is going to really focus on that tonight. You know, what is at stake. Yes, we made a lot of progress under President Bidens administration. We have a lot of work to do going forward. If you choose donald trump, if you choose him as your as the one to be the president , hes going to set us back. Hes going to undo all of these strong policies that weve passed in place from the Inflation Reduction Act to historic Climate Change policies to infrastructure, you name it. Theres so much this administration has done to move this country forward, and hes going to make it very clear that donald trump will only move us back. Hes also going to talk about some of the other issues that are at stake such as reproduct reproductive rights, Foreign Policy, President Biden has overseen very complicated Foreign Policy issues. Its a really important speech for President Biden. This is always for the sitting president the most important speech they give every year. But this year in particular, the stakes could not be higher, and i think joe biden is red did to come out there tonight and really make it clear why hes running for reelection, whats at stake and why people in america should support him and Kamala Harris for a second term. But the key question, i think, eugene for a lot of americans if you look at the polls and the concerns about his age and his ability to serve for four more years really is going to be about the energy, the presentation, right . I got more than a few laughs from the clever column that Michelle Coddle wrote for the New York Times today where she said to unleash dark brandon. Start throwing some strategic punches and show rather than tell americans that he still has the fire in the belly. Does he need to not just show that he has the energy for this but answer the negative fire . And by that, i mean the disenchantment, even anger of americans who just dont feel like their lives are where they want them to be. Yeah, i think he does, whether or not he answers that in this speech, right, there are many opportunities for him to answer to that anger, to that frustration. I think tonight he does need to show people that he has bigger, right . Its not just about age. Are you going to fight for me, right . I spoke with the Chief Of Staff at the white house for playbook this morning, and you know, he told me that we should expect that, when its time to take the fight to republicans, President Biden is going to do that, and he has to do that in a way that a random voter sees the clip on twitter or tiktok, facebook, on their local news and they say he doesnt look as old as i thought he did or as ive been told that he has been. Last year President Biden got, you know, really lucky with Marjorie Taylor greene and republicans kind of yelling at him. Theyve been told by the speaker not to do that again, that he doesnt want them to behave that way, and so this white house can anticipate a back and forth like that that did show the American People that he had vigor. He has to do that on his own. He has to find a way to do that in the fight that hes saying hes going to be willing to do because thats really what americans are talking and thinking about when theyre talking about his age. They dont want him to look slower than he used to look. They dont want him to have like a senior moment when hes doing his speech. Thats what focuses are looking at and thats what he has to figure out a way to not have today. The white house folks say he is wellrested, he is prepared, he is ready to go, but congressman, does he name check donald trump in this speech tonight . Does he go after him directly, or does he just point out, as adrienne said, the contrasts . Chris, this is the most important speech of joe bidens life. If the election were held today, polls indicate that he would probably lose and he would probably lose to a deeply flawed candidate. So i think he has to be explicit tonight. He has to be robust. He cant, you know, speak in metaphors. He just has to level with the American People and really try to make that connection. Everyone knows that this is going to be a trump biden rematch. Might as well be explicit about it, address it, and share what the contrast is going to be. The president s aides have claimed that hes extremely sharp, that hes extremely gauged. He needs to show the American People that tonight, and talk about the future. What are President Bidens plans for the next four years . Its important to talk about your accomplishments, but all elections are about the future and President Biden has to lay out what his vision, what his agenda is for the next four years. Well, one of the things we know that they want fixed for sure, congressman is immigration, right . And he can say legitimately we had a plan and the plan is the one republicans told us they wanted, and they shut it down. But to what extent can you get away with saying we put it out there, they didnt accept it, and not make it look like youre not saying the buck stops here. Thats right, chris. Look, i think immigration has come to democrats what abortion is to republicans. I think if youre talking about it, youre probably losing. Its an issue that the white house has been on defense on since day one of the administration, and obviously they have to own a big part of the failures at the southwest border. Republicans did give them a little bit of an out by tanking this bipartisan compromise that would have improved the situation at Donald Trumps request, but at the end of the day, President Bidens going to have to own what has happened at the southwest border and try his best to show the American People that hes taking it seriously and he actually wants to turn things around. Eugene, how much of this is an expectations game . And by that i mean, so biden has canceled 138 billion in Student Loans and there are plenty of people who say thats not enough. You didnt cancel my loans. The Administration Made historic investments from hbcus to blackowned businesses, but theyre losing black voters. Strong economic indicators, but the middle class doesnt feel it. Does biden suffer from, i dont know, never enough syndrome . How does he convince voters otherwise . Yeah, i mean, its about how voters feel, right . That is really what politics is about. Its about emotion, and you have to make voters feel like the things that you are saying that you did, with the charts and the graphs, that the white house likes to bring out, that those things impact them and that it changed their lives, and they have to feel those things. The white house and the campaign will be honest, you know, aides will say we havent done a good job up and to this point making that case and making that clear, and that your point about never enough syndrome, i think thats right because you have, you know, one thing that this president is grappling with as hes trying to win reelection that others havent is this pandemic and how people feel coming out of that pandemic, right . And the way that people the things that people want, what they want to see the federal government do, the promises that they want kept and the promises they want made are a little bit different than they used to be, right . Its not enough to talk about compromise. They want to see you fight. Its not enough to talk about your you know, youre doing all of these Student Loans when the Supreme Court fought you. People dont care about the process, and thats one of the Process Argument is one that democrats have been using quite a bit. You know, the Supreme Court stopped us. Congress is stopping us. Voters dont care about that. This campaign and this president have to figure out a way to get around that Process Argument and get to the heart of the matter of you need me because x, y and z, and they are going on the road right after the State Of The Union. Some of the both the president , the Vice President and many of the Cabinet Officials and theyre going to have to do that the entire rest of this year in order to really explain to voters the kinds of things that are going to change their lives as this Administration Says for the better. Theyve been doing that for years, and it has not worked, and so they have to change the way that theyre doing that and meet people where they are, which is what they say theyre doing, so we will have to watch and see how that actually shakes out. Yeah, i guess the good news is theres a lot of time still to make that argument. The bad news is its a Long Campaign trail. A Long Campaign trail. I kind of want to put a fine point on the challenge with the economy because our dasha burns went to talk to voters in erie county, pennsylvania, and it was really fascinating what she learned. Take a listen. Darrell grace has lived in erie county, pennsylvania, all his life. The former Maintenance Worker is an avowed steeler fan and muscle car aficionado. In 2020 he voted for biden, but three years later he says the Economic Growth the president talks about isnt helping him. How does the economy feel to you . It doesnt feel well, you know. It says everything is doing better, but it doesnt feel that way. Darrells kids both in their mid20s and employed still live at home. When i retired, i didnt expect for my kids to be here with me, you know. I was like my golden years, me and the wife you thought youd be empty nesters. Yeah, you know, having fun, you know. As for his vote come november. If its biden and trump, its bad. Are you considering Going Third Party . Yeah. Yeah. President biden narrowly flipped this county in 2020 thanks to strong democratic turnout and won the state. But with his Approval Rating on the economy at just 36 , polls show swing state pennsylvania is very much in play. I think he has done a good job. Reporter republican turned independent Marianne Frontino is planning to support biden. We did not go into a recession. Its kind of surprising that people arent more in support of him. He has a real pr problem, a big pr problem. That problem for the president is playing out at eduardos tavern where we met a group of conservative customers. Youve got low unemployment rates, wages are up, inflation is easing, stock markets doing well. But are you feeling any of that . How do you feel about the economy daytoday . Im not sure i agree with what you just said. I never planned on using some of the money that i saved to retire that i had to use because of the economy. Groceries, gas, everything you have to buy every day is way more expensive than previous years. Do you feel like theres a disconnect between what the Biden Administration is saying about how good the economy is versus what you feel . Absolutely. Absolutely. A disconnect that democrats will have to address this election year. Dasha burns, nbc news, erie, pennsylvania. So adrienne, it strikes me, if this is really a pr problem, right, then its about messaging. If its about the reality that a lot of americans feel like this economic recovery has not found its way to them, then i dont know, do you wait and hope it improves by november . Is it a combination of both . From the perspective of people like that, who will help this election go one way or another, where is the Biden Campaign right now . Whats their challenge . Yeah, first of all, chris, i know youve done a lot of focus groups in different states. I love a good focus group at a bar, and also going into like some really important parts of pennsylvania, which of course is the ultimate swing state in any president ial election and listening to voters have real conversations about where theyre feeli