New york city. Did her political gamble pay off . What new polls are telling us about Kamala Harris risky strategy to challenge Donald Trump not where he is weakest but where he is strongest . Could it put her over the top in Mustwin Pennsylvania . Fighting hate with love. A pastor from springfield, ohio, trying to shepherd his community through a political and cultural firestorm. He will join me to explain what he thinks he needs what he thinks needs to happen now. Israeli fighter Jets Pound Hezbollah targets as Terrorist Leaders declare the blast linked to handheld devices a declaration of war. We have a top Military Analyst standing by. We begin with a new poll indicating Donald Trump may be losing ground to Kamala Harris on critical issues in critical states. Michigan, pennsylvania and Wisconsin Voters say trump leads on the economy, but its between two and four points. Harris has closed the gap on immigration. Only trumps Sevenpoint Lead in wisconsin is outside the margin of error. Taken together, one analyst says, its a Red Flag for the Trump Campaign. That didnt stop trump from making this pitch to voters in Long Island last night. Look at whats happening. Businesses that are fleeing, Money Draining out of your state. Hundreds of thousands of illegal migrants sucking your public resources dry. A key part of restoring safety and saving our economy is stopping the invasion at the border of our country. Its crazy. As politico points out, trumps polling before last Weeks Debate has consistently had him leading harris in pennsylvania. Today, not only does the poll have her up by five, a new New York Times poll shows her up by four. Quote, by reassembling much of the core Democratic Coalition in the state, winning the support of black voters, younger voters, and women there. I want to bring in nbcs dasha burns, former Florida Republican Congressman carlo carbello. Dasha, is there any indication they are thinking about changing messaging . There are a lot of factors here. There is just a lot of momentum for harris right now. Everyone was wondering whether that would slow down. It hasnt really yet when you are on the ground and talking to voters. Number two, theres the real economic indicators, like what we saw with the fed. There are things that people are starting to tangibly see turn around in the economy. It really is that galvanizing of the base that harris has done that i think has made some of the biggest difference here. The base was not excited. Now they are. That turnout, getting people to the polls that do support you, that are in line with your issues, thats so critical. For the former president , his base is still very much on board. There are some parts of it like the evangelical vote thats concerned about what he has been saying on the issue of reproductive rights. One of the challenges is that his campaign has tried to put him in these scenarios where he can talk about issues, whether at the border or a Police Station trying to talk about crime or in front of groceries talking about the economy. He has consistently strayed from the message. They cant keep him focused on those issues. He is making headlines that are distracting from the issues, where he could and in some cases his allies think he should be winning. Lets look at the overall numbers in the swing states. Among likely voters in pennsylvania and michigan, Harris Leads by five. In wisconsin, up by one. In all those states, only between 1 and 2 say they are undecided. 1 and 2 , thats where we are in three battleground states. What makes the difference when you get down to the wire . This is all about turnout. I dont know if 1 or 2 are undecided. The issues are baked in . Completely baked in. They have been baked in for months. People know how they feel about Donald Trump. They either love him and will walk over glass to vote for him or they cant stand him and walk over glass to vote against him. The Bottom Line is, Kamala Harris needs to ensure that that coalition that she has reassembled, the young voters, African American voters, collegeeducated women, they turn out and they get to the polls. Is it tied together then if shes Making Moves in key area where he was far ahead, the economy, immigration, if folks are moving toward her, does it make it more likely they will turn out . The enthusiasm is with her. There is an Enthusiasm Gap also. Trump americans dont like reruns. People dont want to have a rerun. Trump is a rerun. They have heard this before. All the jokes, all the Conspiracy Theories. We have been hearing this for nearly a decade since he came down the elevator. At this point, people want to turn the page. He has been around a long time. He has been sucking the air out of our political system for a very long time. At this point, people want to come out and have a new start. Thats what she represents. Joe biden didnt because he was joe biden. He had been around a long time, too. Shes a breath of fresh air. Congressman, harris most straightforward path is through pennsylvania. How much of a Red Flag could that be for Donald Trump . To me its evidence that while both candidates have strong bases, as dasha said, certainly Vice President harris has shored up the democratic base, a base that was deflated with the biden candidacy. Of course, we know Donald Trump has always had a very strong base. Kamala harris has an advantage over Donald Trump. She has, as traditionally candidates have done in the united states, pivoted to the middle for the general election. Shes actually making a play for swing voters, trying to broaden the democratic partys tent. She has shifted on issues like energy, fracking. She has proposed a Tax Policy thats more moderate than President Biden. That is what i attribute some of her recent successes in polling to, to the fact that shes actually vying for these swing voters, these undecided voters while Donald Trump keeps doubling down on his base. We have seen, for a few election cycles, his Base Isnt just enough to get him across the finish line. Dasha, The Times says they were surprised harris is doing so well in pennsylvania. The national poll shows it a dead heat. You spent a lot of time in pennsylvania. You and i talk whenever you are in house about the time you are spending there. What is it that you think is connecting . Whats resonating with those voters . Look, in all likelihood, knowing pennsylvania, its going to be close. Its always close. Its likely to be close. When i was talking to voters before harris was the democratic nominee, there was so much frustration, depression even, i would say, about the repeat of 2020, the Trump Versus Biden again. People felt those moderate felt like biden who sold himself as the son of pennsylvania, as somebody who was going to be there for working class families, he hadnt done enough. He wasnt taking the issues of the economy seriously enough, for example. Just generally, they werent happy with the choices. They were tuned out. A lot of people were thinking they might honestly sit this one out just because they were so frustrated with the state of affairs. Thats changed. Harris is acknowledging the economy is a challenge that while there are some successes, that prices are too high. People need to hear that. Even if there are indicators that the economy is getting better. When people dont feel empathy from politicians, seeing they are struggling, that prices are still high, even if the rate of inflation is down, they feel that from the government. Theres a sense of empathy from harris that perhaps wasnt felt by voters with biden. Again, its that freshness, the newness. Its not the same old story. Theres something to pay attention to now when before they were really pretty happy to tune it out. I want to ask about female voters. In all three states, Harris Lead among women is 20 points or close to it. Then there was an article in politico about north carolina, another swing state. When you add in comments from the gubernatorial candidate, it is almost as if the three leading republican candidates were built in a lab to offend female voters. Its funny, but the Abortion Issue started this off. In many ways, with some of the other comments that have been made, in some ways are Donald Trump and his Vice President ial pick j. D. Vance and the gubernatorial work doing her work for her with women . You couldnt have constructed a better alternative to what they are saying. You have a woman, an empowered woman, second most powerfulrunn against people who want to take agency away from women. You dont want to hear criticism of childless cat ladies, even if you are a mother. You dont want to hear Sarah Huckabee sanders saying a woman who is a stepmother is lesser than or doesnt have any kind of responsibility in her life because she was only a stepmother and didnt physically give birth. There are plenty of stepparents out there, people who are men who are helping to raise children. When you have j. D. Vance and Donald Trump and Mark Robinson suggesting we shouldnt give young women contraception. They may take contraception not just for Birth Control but for other Health Care reasons. They are constantly putting down women, trying to drag them back i dont care what your political persuasion used to be. That really just doesnt sit right with women. It doesnt sit right with men who care about women and who are in these positions where they are helping to raise children who may not be theirs by birth. I spent part of my life in northampton, pennsylvania. They have had it. I have never seen this kind of vitriol directed as a republican by them. They just they are offended to their core about the way that they are being talked about, the way their daughters are being talked about. Thats why you are seeing those numbers move for Donald Trump in pennsylvania. All he is talking about is fracking. They dont care about fracking. They care about making sure they are respected. They are not being. Congressman, the Ap Poll pointed out about general opinions of the two candidates. It found that among registered voters, harris favorability is plus eight. Trump on the other hand, minus 23. 60 have an unfavorable view of them. Minus 28 with independents. Can you win with those kinds of numbers . What does favorability really speak to . Chris, the only reason that Donald Trump is in this race is because he has such a solid base of support. I really think that if we look at these Poll Numbers today, it shows that thats just not going to be enough like it wasnt enough in the 18 midterms in 2020 when he ran for reelection and in 2022 when republicans were supposed to have a massive wave. People dont like Donald Trumps tone. They dont like the way he speaks about things. He loses those swing voters. He is left with just his base, which is strong, its solid. But its not enough. I talked earlier about this pivot to the center. Thats not just on policy. The pivot to the center also refers to tone, to the way candidates speak to a general election audience. Very different than primaries. Kamala harris has figured that out. Shes talking about being inclusive. She has committed to appointing a republican to her today, shes winning. This could change. We still have a few weeks to go. The trends are good for Kamala Harris. Its because Donald Trump has refused, despite the begging of a lot of republicans, to adopt a strategy that appeals to the center of the country. I misspoke. I will blame my aging eyes. Its Minus 26 with independents, not 28. I would say, still not a great number. Thank you both very much. Coming up, new explosions in lebanon amid growing fears of an escalating war in the Middle East. What we are hearing from Hezbollahs Leader, next. Try nt eating the other half of the footlong . The more you end up eating the other half of your footlong. No one can resist juicy chicken, smoky bacon, and creamy ranch. Get the elite Chicken And Bacon ranch. Now at subway [suspenseful music] trains. [whoosh] trains that sense what isnt on the schedule. Trains that use the power of Dell Ai and intel. To see hundreds of miles of tracks. [vroom] [train horn] [buzz] clearing the way, [whoosh] so you arrive exactly where you belong. In the last several hours, israels military carried out an extensive wave of Air Strikes in lebanon moments before Hezbollahs Leader gave his first public comments after days of Device Explosions that left the Middle East fearing allout war. Hezbollah described the attack that killed at least 37d thousa that amounted to an act of war. Israel has not claimed or denied responsibility. Josh, what did we hear from hezbollah about where this goes from here . The leader of hezbollah gave a Speech Today where he vowed retribution against israel. He said that punishment is coming where israel expects it and where it does not. The commander of the irgc, the iranian Elite Paramilitary said there will be a crushing response from irans proxies to the israeli strikes over the last couple of days. The hezbollah leader stopped short of declaring allout war on israel. Thats a good thin missiles hezd at israel. The israelis are not backing down. The booms from israeli Fighter Jets breaking the Sound Barrier over the skies of lebanon were heard throughout the city. In the last few hours, israel has not only been conducting Air Strikes, but mounting Artillery Attacks across the border into southern lebanon. The israelis tell us that they are not crossing the border on the ground. This is not the start of a Ground Invasion of southern lebanon. Take all of the factors together over the last few days, and i think most officials in the region are concerned we are potentially closer to an allout war between Israel And Hezbollah than we have been at any point so far since october 7. Admiral, let me go back to what the leader of hezbollah said. It was an unprecedented blow that crossed all Red Lines and amounted to an act of war. How do you see it . I see three things that the israelis have done with the exploing pagers, followed by the exploding walkietalkies, at a tactical level, chris. They have inflicted some real damage physically on members of hezbollah. At an operational level, they have taken away communications. Now hezbollah, which was relying on these pagers, because they knew the israelis could track their cellphones, now thats gone. They are down to couriers and handwritten messages. Thats got real operational difficulties for hezbollah. Then strategically, pretty obviously, josh alluded to it, its a Signal Sent to the hezbollah but to the entire region, particularly the iranians, that we have a lot of options. We can do a lot of things. Its a pretty strong move. Now you pile on it with a series of Air Strikes, artillery. I would put it all together, chris, and prepager explosions, i felt we had a 10 chance of a wider war. Now i think that is verging up toward 20 , which is uncomfortably high. Yeah. Hezbollah is widely considered the most formidable of all iranian proxy groups. On a strategic level, how damaging were the Device Explosions, just in terms of their ability to communicate, but also to fight. Extremely damaging. Theres no quick fix to this. If you worked in the i. T. Department of hezbollah, they are having a difficult time finding replacements. They dont know what the israelis have managed to get into. We tend to focus on the actual device. I would invite listeners to think the real triumph is getting into the global supply chain. The israelis tapped into these pagers somewhere in production or transit, were able to manipulate all of them. Thats really quite extraordinary. When you combine the tactical impact, the operational impact and as you say the strategic impact, its a significant blow against this terrorist organization. What kinds of conversations are taking place right now at the pentagon and the state department, with allies, to prepare for whatever comes . Number one, as is always the case in these scenarios, its about, what are the u. S. Forces in the region, where are they, where are the aircraft carriers, where are the destroyers and cruisers from the navy, where are the landbased Fighter And Attack aircraft of the air force, where are the special forces, whats the posture of cyber and space . Complete review. As we just talked about, if the chances of a wider war are going up i firmly believe they are those u. S. Forces may be able to keep something of a lid on it by creating deterrents in the eyes of the iranians to some degree hezbollah. Bottom line, chris, i think you will see an increase in u. S. Force presence and perhaps another u. S. Carrier sent to the region. Admiral james stavridis, thank you. Keep it here on ms