Mexico just cut its rays on friday and initial data suggest that brazil just slipped into recession in the 2nd quarter and finally Hong Kong Hong kong where the protests have now gone on for 11 straight weeks disrupting businesses and sending real estate prices plunging as critical Global Financial hub the protests are now wrecking havoc on the local economies as well as having rippling effects across multiple markets option traders are now ramping up bets against the hong kong dollar they got premiums on the put options have crept up to the highest level since 2016 as traders bet on the dollar peg breaking this is a really interesting time right now the Hometown Dollar is pegged to the u. S. Dollar but the economy is now slowing and now the protests are compound ing those problems the h. D. D. Has now tumbled to the lower limits of the currency bag so the home h k m a has had to puke up billions and billions of dollars. Defend the h k d 9000000000 dollars so far this year so when you peg our currency to another you have the anchor you actually adopt their Monetary Policy you adopt their yield curve essentially you let jesus take the wheel and let them run yark economy it usually works pretty well you follow the anchor but if one is in decline while the other and are still strong such as the case with the us now on a relative basis you now have to import the tighter Monetary Policy and race card of the us this spells disaster for the one thats and declined so well have more on that in a bit when we join sarah and home com. And to break down all of this and the increasing the interesting state of the Global Economy we are joined by peter schiff c. E. O. Of Euro Pacific Capital and horwitz chief Market Strategist trading. This seems to be a moment of high instability and uncertainty with experts disagreeing on what the numbers we can all see mean and speculating on what numbers are coming to settle some of these arguments about the direction of the economy of china germany the u. S. And the Global Economy so ill just 1st ask both of you to give us your basic assessment of where those 3 big economies are right now and where the Global Economy is heading in this moment peter why dont you go 1st. Well 1st of all of the rate cuts that your reporter just mentioned globally theyre not going to help the situation the problem in the Global Economy is not that Interest Rates are too high it said the amount of debt is too high and the reason there is so much debt is because Central Banks have already kept Interest Rates too low and lowering them even more doesnt solve the problem it actually makes the problems bigger because it encourages even more debt and so this is counterproductive and i think the u. S. Is in the worst shape i think we are on the verge of finishing the Great Recession that we started in 2008 only the problems are much larger today than they were then and i think the back half of this recession is going to be far more severe than the front half. And bob whats your take on the same question on the risk of recession in the u. S. And germany a big slowed in down in china and the prognosis for the Global Economy and 2102020. And why i think that the the World Economy isnt obviously in dire straits right now you can see that there rushed on the lower rates as peter was saying i think death creates a problem and of course theres way too much debt and i think of china doesnt do something with that with the trade deal i think theyre going to be a lot more troubles of course its always hard to get accurate numbers out of china but theyre in trouble as it is they had trouble before all this started and theyre only to get worse but they dont really care about what goes on because they felt they can hold busy out longer here weve got issues i think were in the very early stages of recession here and im not as dire on the situation in United States as peter is but i do think that we are going to recession i do see a fairly big selloff coming out again timing that saw i could never do that but i can tell you that i would not be surprised to see a 25 to 40 percent haircut and equities because right now the fed continues to kick the can down the road is addressing the real problems letting free markets trade and let the Interest Rate markets trade we are supposed to because if they wanted a free market Interest Rates would be naturally higher because all these peer to peer lenders are males are lending out tons of money and the bankers buying those loans from them versus lending to the public so theyre creating a massive amount of debt even going to this new 3 and a half percent more again have we seen this movie before so the end of the day i think we got troubles i think a big recession is coming but i still think that will be ok when this is over and i dont think its the end of the world i think its a natural sell off from an overbought market thats been totally overvalued with the chase for you so pay it out we know you love gold but now were seeing a kind of a slight rotation out of call it and other safe haven assets after that big need jacquie action on wednesday last week and looks like the market has kind of calmed down a bit and while we know that things arent great fundamentally it looks like the investors in the meantime are going in a risk on mode to capture the short term stimulus so whats your move and how are you playing this right taken. Well im not rotating out of gold in fact people should be buying more gold on this deb i think anything below 1500 now is a good entry point to buy into gold is specially when people realize or traders that the only reason that weve saved the market from collapse is because the Central Banks of capitulated particularly the fed we are now cutting Interest Rates were headed back to 0 they have any quantitative tightening the next move is back to quantitative easing this is all designed to help the stock market but its going to help gold even more than the stock market because all the money that they have to print to prop up these stock bubbles is going to be better for gold than it is for stocks of course the stocks that will benefit the most are gold stocks and so if you want to buy stocks and years speculator thats where you should be looking and just saying take your fundamentalist so you have seen quite a lot over the years as well and every single recession weve had now is actually like a poster child that we kind of blamed on in the 1990 s. There was a savings and loan crisis in the 2000 it was the dot com bubble bursting in 2007 it was the subprime mortgages so while one of the poster child of this one day. It will be the 1st of the butchering of whats going on with the Federal Reserve that it has a number of the 1st and foremost because theyre always behind the curve and theyre trying to react when the horse already out of the barn so that will be it will be i think it will be another financial i mean if you look at the debt structure of whats going on right now and of course United States americans are typically by the month societies as long as they have a job and they can afford to pay for by the money theyre going to be buying well whos going to pay for all this that when we have some slowdown which are already starting to see so i think the fed by the way theyre acting right now and allowing people to get in know out of this cheap money or supposedly cheap money will eventually create the bigger problem and i group peter 1500 gold is a great level to get in which is what we talked about in fact i wrote about this morning. Thanks so much peter schiff and Todd Horowitz thank you both for insight. Thanks guys. In argentina voters are angry out over the struggling economy put their support behind Alberto Fernandez the opposition candidate in the primary election instead of the current president merissa mccreight argentina is already struggling with the economic turmoil and outcomes of the primaries with salt in the market on trees markets collapsing legal journalist molly barrows contributor with americas lawyer joins us now with more so molly why would the markets respond like this to voter support. In short its money and theres just not enough of it to go around the country so fernando says the country needs to renegotiate the repayment terms of the loan it took from the International Monetary fund or i. M. F. Because in the Current Conditions he says the country simply wont be able to do it otherwise he acknowledges that the loan did help the country in a bailout but says debt restructuring is desperately needed for to protect the countrys financial interest so under president mccree argentina signed a stand by agreement with the i. M. F. In mid 2018 for 57000000000. 00 that is the largest in the countrys history fernandez described alone as harmful because he says it puts the country essentially in submission to the i. M. F. And he says they simply cant repay them under these conditions and argentina is latin americas 3rd largest economy the peso currency is struggling annual inflation has climbed about 50 percent and after the election that didnt help the peso plunged 20 percent in argentina stocks lost 30 percent investors had put their faith in the craze efforts to tighten spending which was part of the deal when you got that loan but the people it seems are disillusioned by the countrys economy under mcraes leadership so it looks as if they are throwing their support behind his challenger fernandez and in terms of explaining the crisis right now friend of the show mark was booked for the some sort of for economic and policy research as an op ed. Today in the New York Times on the question of how do we explain this crisis there but he points to something that very much in the front of the minds of argentina voters which is the as you mentioned the role of the i. M. F. Here the biggest. Bailout agreement in their history what will the agreement play in mr current political troubles and consequently on the other on the flipside mr fernandez is rising political prospects. Yes well you nailed it the i. M. F. Is not a bad peg to hang your hat on if youre mccree i mean rather if youre fernandez because it is simply not a very Popular Organization in the country of argentina its widely blamed for the countrys 2001 economic collapse there and mcrae promised to rein in spending as part of the loan deal that he made with the i. M. F. And unfortunately that meant making cuts that were seen as hurting poor middle class families especially under soaring inflation and unemployment and poverty rising as well so mccree had an ally at the time in the then head of the i. M. F. Christine lagarde now she is leaving the organization after being tapped to head up the European Central bank and that essentially is mccree without an International Ally on his economic initiatives during this reelection bid so while the 57000000000. 00 i. M. F. Bailout remains there are questions if the next managing director will be a sympathetic to the president in argentina since legard included some interesting provisions on social spending and gender equality and she worked also to sell the deal to the public understanding that the organization didnt have the best reputation in latin america and she was trying to make some of the. You know basically acquiescence to that loan to try to renew support for the i. M. F. In latin america so considering the countrys economic struggles continuing struggles impressed rationed and marquees lost by a wide margin of votes it was a Political Risk he took when he made that deal with the i. M. F. Made that loan but it looks as if it did not pay off it might have been a gamble it hurt his chances as you saw he lost in this primary elect. And his chances of winning the upcoming general election as a result are seen as very dim so it was the i. M. F. s relationship with argentina that could have played a downfall in mccreadys losing in that primary election fascinating report legal journalist molly barrows thanks for joining us. Thank you so much. Time now for a quick break by here because when we return protests continue to rock and we are on the ground our Team Correspondent brings us the latest on the unrest from inside asia and as we go to break here the numbers at the club. Interest rates are gapping and the spread is widening into what i call the Interest Rate apartheid if youre in the wrong side of the friends of Jeffrey Epstein you bantustan of extortion ery credit card rights if youre a friend of jeffrey abstain then you get the insider rate of negative and you get paid to lend money or to borrow money excuse me from the bank. Because. We said. Just that. Theres enough. But im also the most companies you know ive been the good news is. When i began. To stump you told us a little you know if you go from did you know to do so you just put all your. Hold it. Was dumb and im going to hit us in the notion of you seen it in a little. I dont like kind of the speaking will. Look it is. Always stay in this one day to the local to go to your list. So to you in. Case he. Seemed wrong. Role just dont call. Me. Yet to stamp out disdain become agitated and engagement equals betrayal. When so many find themselves worlds apart. Chance to look for common ground. How why a paradise with some all year round turned into a round the experimentation field the agricultural chemicals we know that these chemicals have consequences they are major irritants theres no question otherwise why would that the Chemical Company workers themselves be geared up and suited up locals attempt to combat the on regulated experiments but often in day you have many of these people who have one foot into the biotech pharma and the other foot in the government regulatory bodies this kind of collusion is reprehensible while the battle goes on the chemicals continue to poison hawaii and its people so one has to ask the question whether there is a form of Environmental Research going on in hawaii whether these Companies Feel they can get away with this because the people have less political power. So what weve got to do is identify. The threats that we have its crazy. Let it be an arms race on the spear in Dramatic Development only. Disease i dont see how that strategy will be successful very. Time you see. Tom. Welcome back here in the United States the Trump Administration is making a full court press to tamp down growing chatter about a possible u. S. Recession and arguing that the ongoing to a fight with china is not affecting u. S. Consumers or dragging on the u. S. Economy on sunday President Trump said he is not ready to resolve his bite with china the latest sign of a porch a protracted and costly debacle ahead for the worlds 2 biggest economies also on sunday the administrations economic message man warns kudlow entreated wiser Peter Navarro did their best on sunday talk shows to amplify mr trumps optimistic take on the u. S. Economy mr navarro bristled repeatedly at any suggestion that u. S. Consumers were paying the price of the trump tariffs and in and i raise an appearance on fox news mr kudlow seemed to struggle to clearly state the message of the day which was quote there is no recession insights. The United States will extend a reprieve given to a while way that allows u. S. Companies to sell to the Chinese Telecom giant as long as theyre selling repairs or updates to existing systems u. S. Commerce secretary well ross announced the decision in a statement on monday say as we continue to urge consumers to transition away from hallways products we recognize that more. Its necessary to prevent any disruption the decision offers relief to Companies Like google whose android operating system is used always phones the company had previously warned that failing to update the operating systems could create security concerns it should be noted that fall way has also released their own operating system called harmony recently and currently use on smart t. V. s this is the 2nd abatement by the u. S. Since adding fall away to the socalled entities list. And as the hong kong protests are becoming increasingly violent investors and traders are growing concerned about the impact on the local economy and the Financial Stability of one of the most important trading hubs in the world the most recent concern is the currency peg to the u. S. Dollar which is rapidly deteriorating katie has been pegged to the u. S. Dollar since 1904 and for 36 years the u. S. Was the Growth Engine of the world and followed hong kong used to be the biggest port in the world it was the dollar based exporter and re export of the world but now we see a shift caused by china china has built up its southern ports and essentially choked off hong kong before 2001 hong kong made up 30 percent of chinas g. D. P. But today its barely 2 percent its functionally an important today is a net importer and relies on china for 80 percent of its Services Exports so if we look at hong kong today it really doesnt make sense to peg i