Transcripts For RT Boom Bust 20240712

Import more productions from the world and promote their wallets economical recovery so last week in china also adopted a fourteens a 5 year plan and a fitting aids vision for 2035 so now china is facing the impact of the pandemic and transformation difficulties is not very easy so china needs to establish a Long Term Strategy to target and promoter people for better life so in my view that the importance of the u. S. To china is declining and that the u. S. Cannot prevent a china growth wrong achieving these goals for. A better and better so i think the answer and we we are we one of the most important packets and focus for chinese is to focus on the domestic. School and then university of china appreciate your time thank you. Currently trialing donald trump is claiming he has won the election and is threatening to take the matter to the Supreme Court joe biden told his supporters they remain on track. So many still to be counted this quarter final result might not be known until the weekend to stay with all the latest and plenty. I. I. This is boom bust the one business show you care to afford to miss branch of war in washington coming up its election day in the United States and prior to the covert 910 demick the economy with seemingly thriving under President Donald Trump well take a look at the data and get some expert analysis to break it all down the later 3 young men to the trade war with china the trouble to ministration is taken issue with tech giants from the nation will dive into how the election affects the disputes with huawei and moving forward with a packed show today lets dive right in. U. S. President donald trump inherited a Strong Economy during his time in office we saw a record breaking numbers in the stock market and the Unemployment Rate but the coronavirus pandemic changed everything boom bust several months as they oka takes us through the economy president. In us history president s are either praised or criticized for the state of the countrys economy during their time in office this happens even though circumstances may change during their presidency that are well beyond their control over the last 4 years President Trump well hes had no problem telling the state of the countrys economy particularly when it comes to the stock market even under the pandemic recovery. We will double our growth and have the strongest economy anywhere in the world oregon to be is doing great number one in the world with number one economy right now in the world it is not even close i am true to report to you tonight that our economy is the best it has ever been the Unemployment Rate is the lowest in over half a century in 4 days we had the biggest market increase stock market increase that weve had in 50 years the stock market went through the roof ive had 144 all time high stock markets in fact since march americas top 644 billionaires have gained nearly one trillion dollars and worth yet Economic Growth is not measured by the stock market alone it can also involve the Unemployment Rate g. D. P. The trade deficit and the federal budget deficit thats just to name a few lets start in 2017 when trying to cough is the Unemployment Rate was at 4. 6 percent just before the coronavirus pandemic hit in february of 2020 that number was at a 50 year low 3. 5 percent the 10 year expansion that ended this year was the longest in u. S. History once a pandemic hit the Unemployment Rate soared 14. 7 percent this was its highest weve seen since the 1940 s. Next lets take a look at g. D. P. Now ideal annual growth is between 2 and 3 percent the expansion started in may 2009 under president barack obama where g. D. P. Grew at an average annual rate of 2. 25 percent Commerce Department numbers under President Trumps 1st 3 years in office show g. D. P. Increased 2. 5 percent pandemic it obviously rattled global economies and the u. S. Was not immune americas economy is expected to shrink by 4. 3 percent in 2000 and. Me another factor to look at here is the stock market when Trump Took Office in 2017 the dow jones was around 20000 today its in the high 20000 thats nearly a 40 percent increase that means people who invested in Companies Part of the major index when Trump Took Office they made some Pretty Healthy gains even after the pandemic hit. Lets also consider some other economic factors the federal budget deficit which is the amount spent that exceeds revenues in a given year its dramatically increased under President Trump this year it reached 3. 00 trillion dollars thats nearly 3 times its level in 2019 National Debt has also increased to 26. 00 trillion dollars essential leave the to g. D. P. Ratio increased from 104 percent in 2016 to 136 percent in 2020 this is a huge red flag for any developed nation since the start of the pandemic the u. S. Has had to prop up the stock market by lowering Interest Rates and buying hundreds of billions in treasuries and Mortgage Backed securities each month meanwhile Federal Reserve chairman john powell well hes repeatedly said that Interest Rates will stay near 0 and that inflation rate around 2 percent some say this will only prolong americas recovery i think if theres a lot of stimulus spending to the degree that were going to potentially talking about in the years to come that the fed could get a lot more inflation than what theyre expecting what fed officials are expecting out to 2023 according to their own inhouse forecast is for the p. C. Either core p. C. Either they gauge Monetary Policy off of to get as high as 1. 7 percent which means that they dont even see 2 years out they need to begin to think about thinking about lifting Interest Rates off of that 0 balance as long as the feds there to print it i suppose that works but it doesnt do anything in terms of achieving long term escape velocity for the u. S. Economy. So this brings us to the 2020 president ial elections on one hand you have President Donald Trump who could provide a low tax environment if the pandemic ends which could feed stock market gains on the other hand we have former Vice President joe biden which could set a civil political tone to strike new deals with foreign nations which will also likely lead to stock market gains in the end its most likely that the investor class will win they won during the pandemic and theyll continue to thrive just as they always have reporting from boom bust Sarah Montecito party. And theres a turn to go over here so lets get some expert analysis from professor Richard Wolfe host of economic updated author of the sick this is the system with capitalism fails to save us from pandemics and dean of the miami erbert Business School john thank you both for being here today professor wolf i want to start with you because when things go wrong for the current president they often blame their predecessor or on the other hand they take credit for the positives President Trump took a lot of credit as you heard in that piece from sarah for the economy growing the way he did during his 1st 3 years in office but did he build up this economy or did he inherited from president barack obama. A little bit of both i think the biggest. Thing about our President Trump is taking you know a lot of credit for things that simply arent true its in listen to him a few moments ago in the coeditor there we have the greatest economy ours has been number one economy i have no idea what with him is talking about and i dont think anyone else is either throughout the period of mr obamas presidency and throughout that from the people who are dying it doesnt make one society a genius Economic Growth 3 times fast the redder than the United States however you measure it whatever you may think of china thats another matter but in terms of Economic Growth and development theres no contest the United States it comes in our august 2nd the peoples republic of china is another example mr obama presided over movement commonly in weeks the data greedy rich and poor the greater than it was when rich girl marma became president and mr trump as graham mr obama won better i had an even greater growth for bill equality which has serious made it consequences on many aspects of our economy so were in trouble and mr trump is trying as indeed mr obama did a book or him to put the best possible face. But the reality is very good and good quotes i always think of it when we talk about were having the greatest stock Market Growth there were having the greatest g. D. P. Growth well if you look at the charts and you look at those ranges where youve seen that over the last 50 years its always the best until we had a recession it drops down but then it gets even bigger so is there something to be said to to a certain extent to be professor off point there about that. Yes certainly i thought your introduction was very good in terms of enumerating the various data points theres no doubt that President Trump has lowered the Unemployment Rate significantly prior to. For example bought. The cove it took it down as was said to 14. 7 percent its now only if i can use that wood and 7. 9 percent but that represents a significant improvement since the lower level in in march april but its still well short of the 4. 8 percent or so that it was at the time the president came into office so the president agenda for reelection has been completely de royal to buy cove aid and what hes counting on the point is to bet that enough people will think that he has the better chance of restoring the economy and the they wont punish him at the polls for having delayed his response to the covert crisis and now do in quotes i want to move the professor wolf spoke quite a bit about china the Trump Administration has been very vocal in blaming china for the mishandling of the pandemic and the Current Situation but tension between the 2 world worlds 2 largest economies remains pretty high and the only positive right now is that some of the phase one of that trade deal so far remains to be in effect but new data shows china is not on pace to meet terms of phase one of the phase one trade deal should this be a top concern in quotes. Well im not sure about a top concern but u. S. China relations are in a very poor state taiwan hong kong human rights for the we go as maritime navigation rights in the South China Sea take talk you can go on and on the one bright spot has actually been the phase one trade deal and china is actually fulfilling its obligations at a pretty good pace considering the disruption to supply chains caused by the covert crisis so for example in a report this week 71 percent of the agricultural purchase commitments that china made in the phase one deal have been made in accordance with the schedule for this year thats not as high as it should be as we move into november but its a pretty high number and the report also indicated that of 57 technical commitments made by china in the phase one deal 50 of those 57 have been realized so its not all bad news as far as a phase one trade deal is concerned and now professor wolf what are the chances there will actually be a phase 2 trade deal either under the President Trump or former president or Vice President joe biden will we be able to recover from this strained relationship. Especially if there is a change in power because obviously the President Trump has made his thoughts very clear about is the choice which. What you get from this group by. Larry and there is. Hostilities towards china or around of the wrong shortcomings that american really to readers eventually finding in the behavior of the chinese i expect mr biden to do that against replied you have to do it for economics or. Its much more to go musician its much more to the car in a globalized labor and the activity that existed before mr trump and i would expect that if mr biden prevails they will come to an agreement with the chinese i certainly hope they do so that the grower you competition at china represents can be worked with rather than the whole pillars historical effort to stop it or to turn it around which the United States since tried to do for years without any success and all and indeed quotes when it comes to the recovery that we talk about from this covert 1000 pandemic and the economic turmoil that has ensued you know we were looking at a v. Shaped recovery now were probably looking at a w. Or adding another v. On back on the back of a w. For that matter is so is either candidate really in a position where theyre going to do any more to bring the economy back or is it essentially going to come back eventually because when the pandemics over things will return to normal i mean you could say if you lean to the left in the situation you could say joe biden presided over the last economic recovery after the recession of 20082000 knight what are your thoughts on this. Well. For sure will be a rebound the question that the markets are wrestling with is the timing of the rebound depending upon the. The timing of the vaccine becoming available and how quickly it can be distributed and how effective it is. Until then there is a lot of uncertainty around the recovery what i would point out though is that the stock market is somewhat similar in patent to the unemployment situation as you would expect and while the market at the end of. Or about 9 percent off of their high for the year they are well above the low about 30 percent above the lows that we saw in the panic era earlier in the spring of 2020 so the market has stabilized and unemployment also has stabilized but both are stabilizing at levels that are below what President Trumpet hoped he would have to contend with going into the election and now professor wolf i got one last question here that we heard sarah break down all those numbers and we recently saw last week the 33 percent growth in the u. S. 3rd quarter g. D. P. However that of course is in question as we see this with more recent spike in copenhagen tina we wonder whether there will be lock downs again here is that number even meaningful at this point because is it truly optimistic or does it matter at all. Well i think the mostly good thing about a group some whole group called group its the other dependent get as on the stimulus from the Federal Reserve plus national erodes of on the to school side from United States treasury whatever the number is you have to remember that the Federal Reserve is now running money corporations are miscarried in a way it never did before at the federal government there as your oath is explained it is running deficits bigger than every bill and ribbon or whatever you see in the behavior of the economy this is an economy thats on life support from government what you really see is a government. By what is happening and what looks like it might be after that it is throwing caution to the winds flooding the economy with money and with government deficits where that goal is and how that develops is anybodys guess what a healthy functioning economy no we dont have that thats where were going to have to end it professor Richard Walsh and dean john quelch thank you both for breaking this all down for us. Thank you. Time now for a quick break here because when we return beyond the trade war with china the trumpet ministry to take issue with tech giants from the nation would dive into how the election affects the disputes with huawei and tick tock moving forward. As expected ballots are still being counted but what we do know about this election is that its close in the country. To be learned was it enough to frame this election as a referendum on. Gisors financial survival they say money doesnt grow on. Climate change these are this is a central plank support diatoms kind of problem right now so you stop the madness. Welcome back with the u. S. President ial election there is a lot on the ballot one issue you wont see and many voters might not even consider is the u. S. Relationship with china as we talked about previously this is a relationship that has devolved considerably over the 4 years of President Trumps 1st term so well weigh happens on election day have a major impact on the relationship between the worlds 2 largest economies especially when it comes to chinas tech giants joining us now to discuss their blue bus cohost christiane it bends one thank you both for being here on this special election day show christiane i want to start with you now u. S. China relations are more strained than we have seen in decades one of the biggest factors creating that strain. All there are a lot of factors that are creating a strain like lets start with the obvious where the trumpet ministration is accusing china of unfair trade practices and corporate espionage and these allegations have allowed truck to launch a series tariff or that billions will trade last year and then have reciprocal sanctions on public special for instruction. And all that leads to a tax a black or a recumbent such as and the subsequent gtech were a battleground with many many casualties on both fronts including all the semis the middle chance and the downstream suppliers and by a we had the u. S. Blaming china for the coronavirus and then that calling it the china virus and scapegoating so theres a lot of back and forth but at the root of all of this is that the u. S. For the very 1st time in history feels threatened by a rising power chinas influence in trade media infrastructure and most importantly high tech is growing and for the very 1st time innovation is also outpacing that of the us with the latest tech dominating social media space and owning and tech and consumer finance. Which are basically 2 largest and Fastest Growing sectors in the market right now so its very unsettling and no one wants to from a position of power so the u. S. Is attempting in a way to curb chinas growth as it perceives it as a threat to the current well. Weve actually talked quite a bit on the show this year about the saga of tech how is the trumpet ministrations attempt to force the sale of tech damage to the u. S. Relationship with china. Well i think it goes back to a lot of what christy just said right that china is this rising power theres no question about it but not just military power or economic power but technological power to talk is a good example of that when you have really the Fastest Growing social Media Company in the world the Fastest Growing app in the world in tick tock and it is a chinese up i think the fact that the Trump Administration made such a bold move to try to essentially not just ban it in the u. S. And that was a lot of the talk over the course of the past year but instead to actually coopted to take control of it to force a sale of it to a u. S. Company and not just to a u. S. Company but to a major u. S. Tech company like either a microsoft or an oracle right and of course walmart also became a part of that i think whats very interesting about where we have been and where we had now a lot of people ignore the fact that with every single step that the troubled ministration has taken on china especially when were talking about free market issues like seizing the assets from a company or forcing the sale of a company those are setting precedent for what it looks like to own a business to own a company to own a Multinational Corporation in the future can the u. S. Government require any company regardless of whether its chinese or not to sell its company over to another Large Company can those rules be made not just in terms of a industry or field but in terms of a specific individual company that is the president thats been set and so moving forward whether its china whether its iran or whether its even u. S. Companies if you can do it to one you can do it to others Kristie Huawei remains a major issue for the u. S. And at this point it appears the job of ministration has been pretty successful at slowing while waves 5 g. Development worldwide is were always future directly related to what happens in this election. And our way around technology that will still remain between the u. S. And china. I dont wince the trump and the station its something in motion that has created this tension and animosity that isnt going to just disappear overnight its takes a lot of time to rebuild the trust the reporting the cooperation that we had before because all our friendships and trust thats been shattered so its going to take some time and a lot to turn the ship back around to get things back to the way they were if ever so certainly things will be incrementally better for our way things wont be as volatile as the trump tweets are sudden and without warning it will be more rule based but the tensions are still going to be there because while the biden and mr biden has slammed the trade war with china saying that the terrorists they have hurt the american businesses and consumers he is still under pressure to continue the tough stance on china and keep terrorists in place and then for huawei specifically they will feel a little bit better under the biden at the station washington will likely feel the combined pressure from the u. S. Ship and the strength over last exports and from the e. U. Governments who are ready stretched by this pandemic over the cost of replacing all this infrastructure so the British Government while it has an purchasing hallway 5 g. Equipment back in july they also said the band could be reversed and made it trouble is its so if you recall that isnt a band with solely due to the pressure from the us so yeah alec will get better but its not to say the hollow will die if trump is reelected that will create more of a challenging space for it for another 4 years where it will likely turn inward and focus more on the domestic chinese economy and boosting its homegrown chip and history so as attendants continue the big question right now is is this abstain a ball for both kind and that u. S. And its actually being completely selfsufficient self or lie close is that a really better world and better before we go we have just a minute left if biden is elected how do you see this relationship to basically the same question how do you see that u. S. Relationship with china and these crackdowns changing or will it yeah i think it will change i disagree with christie in that i. Thing the administration would move very quickly to reverse a lot of what the president has done keep in mind a lot of what trump has done has happened by executive order and its happened through the state department as well as the Commerce Department to some of these groups so these are all under executive power i think that a President Biden would move quickly number one to undo a lot of the executive orders but number 2 i think a lot of it would just kind of dissipate it takes a lot of effort and a lot of work for the Trip Administration to constantly push its war not just on china but on Chinese Companies all you have to do is really stop pushing and a lot of this begins to resolve itself and we love to listen theres a lot of debate about bidens connections to china i think theres no question that biden has a lot of connections to china and therefore irregardless of whether theyre appropriate or inappropriate he definitely has a different relationship with the chinese than trump has had and i believe that we will see a vastly different relationship with china under a Biden Administration than we have seen or a trumpet ministration which i believe will only continue to push war with china economically and through tariffs and trade if trump does get another 4 years and the economy of this country is definitely center stage in this election this evening boom bust cohost christine. Thank you both for your time. And thats it for this time you can catch boom bust on demand on the brand new portable t. V. App which failed on smartphones and tablets through google play in the Apple App Store by searching portable t. V. Portable to be can also be downloaded on a newer model Samsung Smart t. V. s as well as roku devices or simply check out a portable t. V. Well see you next time. I. Will be a reflection of reality. In a world transformed. What will make you feel safe. Isolation community. Are you going the right way or are you being led. By. What is true what is great. In the world corrupted you need to descend. To join us in the depths. Or a maybe in the shallows. Its a no biting Election Night for the United States where the final result now depends on several case wing states and they dont trump nor joe biden have any plans of conceding. I heard charted 90 we believe were on track there were no selection frankly we didnt win this but this is a fraud. On the American Public now with everything still to play for there is the potential this could drag on for days or even longer especially be trumped threatening to take matters to the Supreme Court and with the divisive election having already spurred a wave of protests in several states is doing