Seeding Saturday: Morning update from Nick Stevens Subject:* HighSchoolOT's Nick Stevens updates the playoff picture on the morning of Seeding Saturday. Show Transcript Good morning everybody. Welcome to seating saturday. I make stevens. We have a lot to get to this morning. I'm gonna spend a lot of time taking your questions uh, if you have any, so be sure you send those into us, you can type those in the comment box on facebook or on twitter wherever you're watching us right now. You can type in those comments. I will get to your questions As soon as possible and answer as many of them as possible. But I do want to go back through the playoff projections as things stand now it is 10.30. We do have games kicking off in different parts of the state right now there's a makeup games. Um, from last night, some games got started and then got suspended because of lightning. Other games never even started. Uh, and so they were moved to today. I think the last games kick off at one o'clock this afternoon. So we'll be monitoring those games. Will have those scores updated for you on the high school ot scoreboard on high school etc. Dot com. And of course on the high school O. T. App. And we will be updating those playoff projections as those results come in. So you're gonna want to stick with us throughout the morning, uh, and into the afternoon. And of course later today, the Nchs A will be releasing the official brackets as part of seating saturday. The way that's probably going to work. What's worked in other sports is first, they will release the official standings from each conference and they will give schools a chance to look at those standings, make sure there are no reporting errors. And once that's done, they will start working on the preliminary brackets. Preliminary brackets will take a few hours probably. Uh, there's an extra step that they have to do with football to subdivide the playoffs. Um, And then after that, the schools usually get about an hour, hour and a half or so to review the preliminary brackets to make sure there's no errors there. And if those are good, then the nchs A will finalize the brackets and uh, we will have the official brackets, we'll know who's playing, who will know when, where all that kind of stuff. So by the end of the night, probably around dinner time or shortly thereafter, we will have the football playoff brackets. But let's get straight to the projections. And I'm going to start in the Three A East bear with me here. I didn't get the set up ahead of time. Uh There we go. I'm going to start in the Three East because we had some changes. Let me zoom back out a little bit. We had some changes to the three East this morning. Um And what changed is there was a wrong record reported on max preps for Northwood. And so Northwood is um actually five and one. We did not have them at five and one. And the reason for that is vance counties game against North Wood was counted as a forfeit. Uh And so what that means is Northwood is now five and one. Southern Durham is five and one. Chapel Hill is four and one and Chapel Hill is playing Orange right now over in Orange County. So um if Chapel Hill wins, that creates a three way tie for first place between Chapel Hill, North Wood and Southern Durham in that case, um There will, there has already been a draw, it happened last night. Uh And Northwood drew the one. Chapel Hill drew the two and Southern Durham drew the three. So what will happen if Chapel Hill wins is Northwood will be seated as the conference champion. Chapel Hill will be seated as a second place automatic bid and Southern Durham will get in as a wild card team will be the first wildcard team in. Um If Chapel Hill loses, uh Northwood has or Southern Durham rather has the head to head advantage over North Woods of Southern Durham would then be the one North, would would be the two in Chapel Hill would be out. So why is this so important? Everybody in the Three East who is on the bubble is watching this game this morning. Um If not actually literally watching it, they are paying attention to what the score is. Here's why this is important. I'm gonna go over to the wild card race in the three East and we've been talking about the Three East for a long time. Uh And for probably two or three weeks now, talking about the bubble that's going to happen or the bubble situation that's happening in the Three East. And it is playing out just as we had talked about. So West carter at Clayton Eastern elements in Triton are likely to be tied for the last three spots in or will be tied for the last three spots. And if Chapel Hill wins today, so one of those four teams is gonna get left out of the playoffs again. That's West carter at Clayton Eastern elements are training and what you see right now are just placeholders in our projections. So Triton has an equal chance to get in as any of these other teams there just in red right now because there's only three spots that we can put people in. So, um, there, there's no advantage here for any of these teams. So what we're going to have to monitor is, uh, who wins a draw here? If Southerner? I'm sorry if Chapel Hill beats orange today. The other thing that is happening today, let me go to, um, go to high school. Ot all this is on our website by the way. If you want to look at this on your own, um, this is kind of an explainer on what's going to happen today with seating saturday. Um, we're gonna have an ad play here. We have to have ads. We have to support ourselves. Right. Uh, here we go. So there are, this is a list of the games that are happening today, um, throughout the state. Um, and I believe Eastern Elements, yeah, Eastern Alabama is playing McMichael at noon today. So what that means is if Eastern elements wins and they will be the favorite in that game, they will also move up to five and one, So that's going to leave less carter at Clayton and Triton in a three way tie for the last two spots into the playoffs. Uh, And so again, that's going to be determined by a random draw, assuming Eastern Elements wins. As expected of Eastern Elements were to lose. They would drop out of the playoffs, uh, and try to move in and that would be that, um, that could also open up the door for Northern Gilford to get back into the playoffs if Eastern Elements were to lose, but they will be the favorite to be Michael today. Um, So this is what we're looking at the Three East and it has changed since we did this last night. So I wanted to start here uh, in the Three East and update everybody on that. Of course we will be monitoring the the Chapel Hill Orange game. That's a huge one that's happening at 10 30 this morning. Kyle morton is there for us right now. Um And he is already tweeting updates from that. So you can follow him, Kyle morton, H. S. O. T. He'll have coverage of that game and again we will update these projections the moment that game goes final. And of course eastern elements as well. So there's a lot to watch in Three East. Now let's go over to uh I'll tell you what, let's just go to the fore a web or three West since we're already in three and then we'll go to the other regions. Um And you can see nothing has changed here since last night. Um, And um, we will look at the bubble. The bubble is pretty clean in the three A West right now. Uh Monroe the last team in and 714 winning percentage. Ashbrook Marvin Ridge, the first teams out, They both have 667 winning percentages. So you can see that things look pretty clean in three West, much cleaner than three East, that's for sure. Um, So let's go to foray foret east. We do have a game being played this morning in this region that is going to have implications as well. Wake Forest and Heritage are playing Joel Bryant is at that game for us and he will have, he will have coverage and updates on twitter as well. Um These that game is going to have huge implications in the foray East. If Wake Forest loses, Wake Forest will be out. If most likely if Heritage loses, heritage will be out. Um So this is in an elimination game. The winner will get in. The loser will not it is 00 in the second quarter right now in that game. So we will uh we'll have to watch that and see what happens. So we'll look at the bubble here and when wake forest or heritage loses, heritage loses, it will drop them uh to 500. There'll be two and two. Um if wake forest loses, it's going to drop them to three and two, and that will give them 20.600 winning percentage, I believe. Yes. Um so that is where that will go and I have just click the wrong button on my computer. So bear with me for just a moment here. All right. Um So that's where they will drop down to uh and that will drop whichever team loses out of playoffs. That will move holly springs in. So right now, if you're holly springs fan, you see yourself in the red, that means you're out. Don't don't freak out about that just yet. Whoever loses that game, you will replace them in the playoffs and be one of the last few teams in. So if you're pine forest, if you're Leesville road, if you're holly springs, uh you should be fine. Um assuming that game doesn't go to a tie, which I haven't even thought about until just now. I don't think that will happen though. So that's what for a east looks like. We'll go to the for a West real quick. Um And we can show you here the wild card situation. Green Hope or olympic is the first time in Green Hope following East for South Nicholas Guilford after that. The drama here in the four A West is the same as it was last night. Late norman and Hickory Ridge are tied at five and two for the last spot in. Um Hickory Ridge beat Porter Ridge last night to eliminate Porter Ridge from the playoffs. So now late norman Hickory Ridge will come down to a random draw which will be done by the Nchs a later today. So we won't know the results of that until sometime this evening. Probably Marty done three a. So let's jump on over to the to a east. And again, everything pretty clean here. Nothing has changed here from last night when we did our last round of projections. We do have a three way tie here for the last spot into the playoffs. South Granville is in at five and one they should be comfortable comfortably. And if you're South Granville Fan, um southwest on to West, Craven Petty field all tied at four and one for the last spot in like everything else we've seen so far today. This is gonna be determined by random draw later today by the Nchs A. So we will wait and see what the results of that that draw is. Each team's got about 33 chance of getting into the playoffs. So we will see who wins that draw in the to a west, just one at large bid. And then we have it going to Pisgah right now at 800 winning percentage. Uh and I think that is going to be a safe projection right now. I don't think we're going to see anything here change. I'm just looking, let me make sure we don't have a Central Davidson game today. We do not. So yeah, that should be set. Pyszka should be safe as the at large bid into the to a west. All right, let's go to the one A East and we will take a look at uh this bubble and this one is a little messy. Uh Probably the messiest even of the, including three east, you can see we've got three spots here for 400 teams for 400% teams, winning percentage. Uh Hobson, North Duplan, Lakewood in, but they are also tied with South side and Warren County. So again, these five teams are going to have to draw for the last three spots into the playoffs. Um And I'm assuming let me just make sure that we don't have anything going on here that would affect this. I don't see anything. So, Um that should be the bubble that you see here uh in the one a east. Uh and we'll have to monitor that. We won't know who gets that tiebreaker until the preliminary brackets come out later today. And the one a west, you can see the last team in Christ the king. There is no tie here. South Stanley is the first team out at 500. Uh and I think I'm gonna go look over here and make sure. But I think that that is, yeah, there's nothing being played in the one A West. There is Lewisburg and Lauren County that has to be played today. They did not play at all last night. Um So let's look and see what that would do. Um well, if Warren County Beats Lewisburg, that would give Warren County the number one spot out of that conference, uh at Lewisburg would drop down to 500. So they both get in, it would just be a seating priority. So we will have to watch that game. That game could have some implications uh today for the one a east. But that is a quick look at your playoff projections as they stand right now. If you have questions about anything, go ahead and send those in. There are some, some questions and comments coming in which we will get to. And I will stay here and answer as many of them as possible. So let's go to the first one here in the three East East Chapel hasn't played yet this season. But the gaming a southern normal schedule is that game being played or was it canceled? That game was canceled? Each Chapel Hill is not playing. So, uh, that will be a no contest. That will be a forfeit. It just won't be played. You can consider that off the schedule. The three A west. Well, we just went through the three A West, but we can go through it again. Let me pull up that screen. Um you can see again, all of this is pretty much set I believe. Let me just go glance through here. I know all these colors are probably overwhelming. The yellow means that they're done playing. The pink means that uh there are games to be played today. So you can see like Parkland and venal smith are playing today. That won't have any implications for three Less. So the three of us should be pretty much set. Uh And you can see the at large bids. Kings Mountain States will was talking about Tabor, L. Brown, Weddington, A. C. Reynolds all first place automatic bids. Second place automatic bids are crest, Robinson, charlotte, catholic, T. C. Roberson. Uh And then there's one third place automatic bid Asheville. They beat North Henderson last night to break that tie. Um and then your wild card spots are pretty much set as well. Uh Nothing is likely to change here, alexander Central comfortably and West west roman and Dudley both tied for the next spot. They will both get in and then Monroe five and to the last team in as a wild card spot. That leaves Ash break, Marvin Ridge, Ashbrook, sorry, and Marvin Ridge as the first teams left out of the three A West playoffs. So that's your quick look there at the three A west. All right, let's see. Is it too soon to tell if there will be a five conference rooms in the three double east or six? Oh goodness. Um Yeah, it's too early to tell because we just don't know who's going to qualify yet so I can bring up the the three East here. It's too early to tell pretty much everywhere right now just because you know where we don't know who's in, where the bubbles aren't clean cut here. Uh And there's going to be draws to determine who gets in, who gets in is going to determine who goes into which which subdivision. So if you um if you are, you know, I'm trying to find an example here, I can't find one. So here we go. Eastern Almonds has an ADM of 12 34. Clayton has an ADM of 1951. So if Clayton gets in and Eastern Almonds is left out, that's going to change that line there. Uh In terms of who gets into three double and three. Uh So if Eastern Alamance gets in, Clayton's left out and try it and gets in at 12 17, then that's gonna give more small three A schools and push somebody up to the three double A. And until we know who is in. For sure, we just can't uh you know we just can't project who's going to go to which subdivision. So it's a lot different this year than it has been in the past. Unfortunately, it means we can't give as much information ahead of time as we have been able to. All right olympic. Are they in? How do they determine who the champions are in the for a West? Let's go to olympic. We'll go before a West. Mhm. So seven x seven here. There are three teams tied at the top of this conference at five and one. There was a random draw last night. Let me pull up that. Okay, those results here real quick. I can tell you exactly what those results were. So providence was the number one team out of that draw. Audrey kill was the third team an olympic. I'm sorry. Andre tells the second team an olympic was the third team. Um And so that that is how olympic or that's how that will shake out, providence will get the first seed automatic bid. Audrey could be seen as a second place automatic bid. Olympic will have to get in as a wild card and they should not have any problem at five and one. In fact the very first wildcard team in so olympic will be in. Uh and that's how that was determined. It was just done by a random draw by the conference last night. All right, alexander Central, what do you see for us? All right, well let's go and take a look here at alexander Central. Yeah, we will. And Mhm maybe if I can spell alexander right, here we go. Um So alexander Central last night or is five and one now we'll talk about five. And oh so alexander Central will be second place in their conference. Uh Only one automatic bid out of the North Western Conference. Five teams here in three A. So we will go and take a look at the bubble, Alexander Central, the very first wildcard team in. So they should be comfortable where they are. Definitely think that that there's I don't see any chance of alexander Central falling off here. In fact, I don't think there's any games left in the three A West that have any impact on the playoffs. So um this should actually be pretty much set here. This should be your bubble teams. I'm sorry your wild card teams that get in um And Ashbrook and Marvin Ridge would be your first teams left out. Yeah. All right, well I don't have any other questions in the queue. If you I'll sit here for one more minute wait. Uh If you have anything you can send it in. Otherwise what we will uh Oh here we go. Here's one more Washington and the to a division. Let's go take a look at Washington. All right, so Washington is the conference champion and they obviously had that uh that uh really uh entertaining game on thursday against Kinston. Uh so five and so they'll get in is the first place automatic bid. Uh Kinston is going to get in a second place out of that conference. Uh And so, you know, it's too early to tell which teams may go to which division, which subdivision. So uh, you know, I can't really get into that. Obviously the who plays who is going to be determined by a random draw. So there's not much I can really talk about there either, but I mean Washington is safely and as an automatic bid. So um they will be seated as a conference champion. That means they'll have a shot at the one spot. But that's uh that's what things are looking like they're for them. All right, let's see, Jack Britt. Mhm. So Jack Britt lost to Scotland last night. That was a must win game for Scotland to get into the playoffs. Uh And so Scotland one, they will get in as a second place. Automatic Big Jack Britt is the very first wildcard team into the Foray East. So I don't there won't be any issues there for Jack Britt. If Wake Forest wins today, they could potentially be the first wildcard team. And but um Jack it would be the second wild card team. And so Jack brits comfortably and there's there's no issues there for Jack Britt. All right, well that those are all the questions that we have here. Uh, we are going to be monitoring all those games that are being played right now. Uh, and later on this morning, early afternoon on high school A. T. So you can check out those live scores on high school etc. Dot com. And on the high school A. T. App, make sure you download that app if you don't have it already. We will be sending out updates on playoff projections to the