Transcripts For BBCNEWS HARDtalk 20200616 03:30:00 : vimarsa

By police in atlanta, georgia, on friday, has appealed for protests to be peaceful. Tomika miller said the family will take a long time to heal. The mayor has ordered immediate changes to police procedures. President trump has expressed surprise at a landmark ruling by the Us Supreme Court that employers cannot fire workers for being gay or transgender. The expectation had been that more conservative judges might not uphold civil rights law. Last week the Trump Administration removed Health Insurance protections for transgender people. China has moved to shut down a coronavirus outbreak linked to a massive market in beijing. More than 100 cases have been confirmed. The World Health Organisation has described a new outbreak as a significant event and warned it needs careful tracking. Now on bbc news, hardtalk. Welcome to hardtalk. Im stephen sackur. We all want to believe that the worst of the coronavirus pandemic is over. Governments are easing their lockdowns, focused on economic recovery. But the infection rate is still on the rise in latin america, in parts of the us and africa too. My guest today is internationally renowned epidemiologist ian lipkin. Now, he was the scientific advisor on the hollywood movie contagion, which predicted a scenario uncannily like todays nine years ago. In real life, are we today getting our response right . Ian lipkin in new york, welcome to hardtalk. Good to be with you. Let me start with something you said just a few weeks ago. You said, it would not surprise me if a substantial proportion of the entire World Population becomes infected with covid 19. Do you still feel that way today . I do. It will take some time, but this virus is spreading across the world at enormous speed, and the only thing really between us and bona fide infection of the entire world really is a vaccine, and thats several months away. The Knowledge Base upon which we develop our efforts to combat covid 19, is it still quite narrow or has it expanded massively over the past three months . Theres been a dramatic amount of collaboration worldwide, the speed at which youve seen publications and press releases on the development of drugs, diagnostics, insights into the way in which this virus causes the disease is absolutely unprecedented. And yet the implication of what you first said to me is that none of that expanded knowledge and more Effective Response is going to make much difference. And if we figure that the worlds population is, what, close to 7 billion, and only looking at the latest figures, 7. 5 million have been infected thus far, the implication of everything youre saying is that were still at the beginning of the beginning of this. Yes, but it could be, believe it or not, much worse. So diagnostics have been extraordinarily helpful in allowing us to contain the outbreak, the use of face masks and other kinds of Personal Protective Equipment has moved dramatically in terms of helping us control the spread of Infectious Diseases, and the rate at which were beginning to look at drugs and vaccines is also unprecedented. I know youve made great efforts to develop international collaborations, in particular with china. So how much does it matter that we fully understand the origins of this novel covid 19 virus . There are several reasons that this is important. Some people think that this is really an intellectual curiosity and i disagree. First, if we understand where this virus came from and how it transitioned into humans, there may have been intermediate animals, we will be able to survey for those threats to reduce the risk that not only this virus, but similar viruses might emerge in the future. In addition, if you believe, as i do, and most of my colleagues believe, that this virus originated in nature, if we can identify the origin of this virus, then it could put an end to the finger pointing that i think is very disruptive to global science and addressing the challenge of covid i9. So it doesnt help when the chinese say that the United States is responsible or the United States says that china is responsible. This is a virus that arose in nature and threatens us all, irrespective of nationality. Professor lipkin, listen to these words from Vice President mike pence. He said, china covered up how dangerous the disease is, it didnt report sustained human to human transition for a month, it censored those who tried to warn in the world and it destroyed samples. Thats quite a charge sheet. That is quite a charge sheet, and i have some insights into this because of my work with china. I first heard about it in mid to late december, and i was aware that it was a coronavirus at the end of december, and this information was transmitted by my colleagues in australia, in shanghai, i communicated this information myself to the National Institutes of health. I dont think that the chinese knew as early as early december how the virus was being transmitted. Its very easy to look back on a monday morning and ask what might have been played differently on saturday or sunday, because you have the advantage of hindsight. Were there things that could have been done differently . Absolutely. There is no question about that. And i think that it would have been helpful if the virus, for example, the samples had been released at an earlier time points, and that people had been invited in to help with understanding the origins of the virus. Professor lipkin, how can you be so sure, as youve expressed it to me, that this was a virus that crossed over from the animal population . There are significant numbers of people in the United States, some of them close to the Trump Administration, who still insist there is evidence that it came from a chinese laboratory, perhaps inadvertently released into the human population. Well, im happy to look at whatever date anyone has that they think supports this point of view, but ive not seen it. The data that ive seen, which weve reported a few months ago, reviewed the sequences of the virus that had been identified in china compared with sequences that had been recovered in bats in china, as well as in penguins and others, and we concluded that this was a virus that originated in nature. Now, can one every say incontrovertibly that this virus, which was found in bats or some intermediate host, could not have been inadvertently and i emphasise that inadvertently released in some fashion by some human. I cant rule that out. But what i can say is that theres zero evidence that that occurred and theres certainly no evidence to suggest that this virus was deliberately created to cause harm. It just doesnt. It just doesnt have any signatures that we typically see to illustrate that sort of a link. The other thing yeah, let me just finish with this, because this is critical. I mean, i think this is not a constructive line of enquiry anyway, because its here, it is all over the world at this point. We have seen many examples where there have been viruses that emerged in the wild that move into the human population. Are we going to blame any country in africa for the emergence of hiv . Are we going to blame uganda for the appearance of zika . It doesnt make any sense. Professor lipton, as you say, its here and we have to deal with it, and i tell you what strikes me, and ijust wonder whether it has struck you so forcefully as well in recent months there are so many uncanny echoes and resonances from the movie contagion, that you were the science advisor on alongside the writer, scott burns, and the director, steven soderbergh, made i believe 2011, so were talking almost a decade ago, and ivejust rewatched it, as many people have on their streaming services, and it is eerie the degree to which in so many different ways as that story unfolds, it mirrors what is happening in real life. Do you take any pleasure in that . Laughs i dont take any pleasure in it. I take. It is ironic. The reason we made this film was in fact to prevent Something Like this happening. So in fact although the film was released in 2011, we began talking about this back in 2008 and 2009, and it took us a long time to try to get all of the details as accurate as we possibly could make them within the constraints of the fact that we wanted people to actually pay to go and see the movie, otherwise it was not going to be of any practical value. Now, one criticism really had of the movie, and this is ironic, in retrospect, was around the time frame for creating the vaccine, and i remember showing it to the director of niaid, anthony fauci, at one point in new york. He came in from a premiere that i arranged for him. And he said, you know, i like the zoonotic aspects, i like this, i like talking about tra nsmissibility, the r 0s, and the characters we have, but the time frame for the creation of the vaccine is completely unrealistic. And i said, tony, cause hes a good friend of mine, i said, tony, it may be unrealistic now, but it has to become realistic, and in fact you now see that the time frame for creation of a vaccine has moved now from several years to approximately a year. So we were not that far off in terms of what we thought would be needed. Professor lipkin, ijust want us both to watch a short clip from the movie. It involves kate winslet, whos one of the key scientific investigators responding to first news of the virus. Lets just have a look together. For every person who gets sick, how many other people are they likely to infect . So, for seasonal flu, thats usually about one. Smallpox on the other hand. Its over three. Now, before we had a vaccine, polio spread at a rate between four and six. Now, we call that number. The r o. Theres kate winslet playing a scientist who came to a bad end as she tried to wrestle with this outbreak. Im just intrigued by real life mirroring fiction. You, as weve said, went to china in january when we know that the virus was spreading. You came back to new york, you then found quite soon afterwards that you had covid 19. Do you believe that you caught it in china as a result of your Scientific Exchange . No, this time so when i went to china in 2003 during sars, i developed a respiratory tract infection shortly after i returned, and there i think i became ill in china. This time, i did not become ill in china because i came back, i was isolated for two weeks, i was fine, and then while i was travelling around new york, primarily doing media, i became infected. So this was and the strain that infected me was one that came from europe. So there were two major waves of virus that came in one from china, which was primarily focused on the west coast, and another one that came from europe. Theres another twist, which, in a sense, is a mirror to fiction. In the movie, there is a sort of radical conspiracy theorist blogger who is convinced that there is a sort of homoeopathic remedy or a treatment for that particular virus in the movie, and he peddles it on his blogs and online and it becomes a huge thing and the American Public is desperate to get it. Now, theres no Scientific Evidence for this product, for scythia, in the movie. In real life, the president of the United States has been peddling the notion that this drug thats used of an antimalarial treatment, hydroxychloroquine, could be effective as a treatment, and it amazes me that as one of the most senior epidemiologist scientists in the United States, you chose to use this unproven hydroxychloroquine yourself. Why on earth did you do that . Im glad youve given me an opportunity to answer this question. So when i became ill, representatives of the Chinese Government offered to send me convalescent plasma. I couldnt actually find a way to accept it so that i could be treated. That was actually my first choice. I realised that i was not in a position to make any sort of decisions, and the point that i consulted with Infectious Disease physicians at columbia, they said to me, we want you to take hydroxychloroquine. This is the dosage. I then consulted with a cardiologist because ive had some heart problems in the past, and he told me that i was cleared to use it. I dont think it made any difference whatsoever, but ive felt for a long time that any doctor who treats themself has a fool for a patient. So i just go with the recommendations of my physicians. As i said just a moment ago, i dont think it made one difference in terms of my recovery or lack thereof. Lets stick with the theme of president trump. Id rather not well, we need to. For the next few months, perhaps. The complex relationship between science and politics has perhaps been best illustrated by the confusions we have seen in the United States over whether to lock down, and then how to run the lockdown, when to ease the lockdown. What are your conclusions from what you have seen about the efficacy of the current relationship, communication between science and politics . Well, lets talk about lockdown first. I think theres no question but that lockdown has had a dramatic impact, and if you look at the various countries that have implemented lockdowns and testing and track tracing, you see a very strong correlation between that sort of early response and containment. The best example i can provide you is what happens in, if you look at scandinavia, when you compare norway and denmark versus sweden. So, lockdown works. I dont understand why it took so long in this country to get lockdown into position, but we had discussions like that in new york state, in new york city, where i reside, and i think there were delays there that made a huge difference, so unfortunately i think that both our democratic and Republican Leaders were slow to appreciate the importance of this. My hope, of course, is that having learned from this experience, if we ever have something similar in the future, we will respond more rapidly. Now, i cant account at all for the way in which we have gotten signalling from the white house that has been confusing. Well, i was going to say, it isnt really about the next pandemic, it is about what happens next in this one, isnt it . Because if one looks at the figures, there are 18 american states where the infection rate is currently rising, including some of the most populous states in the south of the United States. There are doctors i am going to quote you ashistha, director of the Harvard Global Health Institute who says that what the easing of lockdown in most of these states now means is that between 800 and 1,000 americans are going to die every single day. We are likely to get another 100,000 deaths by september. It could be catastrophic. Do you agree with that . I dont have a crystal ball but i do think that there will be additional morbidity and mortality as a result of easing these restrictions. So, i am very happy to report that i am not a politician because these guys and women are being pulled in two Different Directions by those individuals who feel that the economic pain and poverty and so forth associated with the lockdown is crippling. Now, i dont agree. I think that in fact we need to be cautious, and until such time as we have a vaccine that is effective and prevents disease, and or a drug that can be given orally, our best methods for containment are in fact classical epidemiological lockdown and contact tracing. The most effective thing we have at present right now is the face mask, and this is something that should have been implemented earlier as well. When i left china on february 4, everyone i encountered was wearing a face mask. When i came back to the us, with the exception of thejet bridge, nobody was wearing a face mask. So in terms of adaptation then, long term adaptation, so that we can live with the reality that covid 19 is still going to be among us, and, as you say, until there is a vaccine, there is no way that we can have this sort of complete herd immunity to it, what are the most important mitigation things we can do . Youve mentioned face masks, theres a big debate across europe and the world about whether one metre or two metres is the safe physical distance that people should stay apart from each other. Theres also a debate about whether it is safe or not safe to reopen places of entertainment, including bars, restaurants, that sort of thing. Where do you stand on these practical issues that face societies across the world . Well, the further you are away from another individual, the less likely you are to be exposed to this virus. There is no question about that. The question is what can you do . At columbia university, where weve begun to talk about bringing people back to work and into classes, we are looking at two metres. Thats what were trying to do. As the amount of virus in the Community Begins to drop as a result of these kinds of efforts towards containment, i think you will see people beginning to move closer together. There are, however, some things that i am very concerned about and one of them is bars because what happens, first of all, bars tend to be small places anyway so people are forced in close proximity to one another. In addition, as they begin to drink and they lose their sense ofjudgement, they get closer still. So i think restaurants are safer for that reason than bars. In new york state, now, we have restaurants that are beginning to open, but theyre all opening with the concept of tables that are separated from one another by six feet, and many of these are associated with outdoor dining, because then you have more air exchange. Fortunately, as were coming now to the point where were opening, we are, at least in the northern hemisphere, in a time of year when people can be outside. Now, when we move back into fall, and weve had protests and other sorts of things where people are pushed together, but as we move back into fall, people move indoors, many of us anticipate that there will be a dramatic increase in infection again. Right. Well, that is depressing, but maybe even more depressing is the degree to which right now, the highest rates of rising infection are not in the developed world where at least there is the Us Supreme Court<\/a> that employers cannot fire workers for being gay or transgender. The expectation had been that more conservative judges might not uphold civil rights law. Last week the Trump Administration<\/a> removed Health Insurance<\/a> protections for transgender people. China has moved to shut down a coronavirus outbreak linked to a massive market in beijing. More than 100 cases have been confirmed. The World Health Organisation<\/a> has described a new outbreak as a significant event and warned it needs careful tracking. Now on bbc news, hardtalk. Welcome to hardtalk. Im stephen sackur. We all want to believe that the worst of the coronavirus pandemic is over. Governments are easing their lockdowns, focused on economic recovery. But the infection rate is still on the rise in latin america, in parts of the us and africa too. My guest today is internationally renowned epidemiologist ian lipkin. Now, he was the scientific advisor on the hollywood movie contagion, which predicted a scenario uncannily like todays nine years ago. In real life, are we today getting our response right . Ian lipkin in new york, welcome to hardtalk. Good to be with you. Let me start with something you said just a few weeks ago. You said, it would not surprise me if a substantial proportion of the entire World Population<\/a> becomes infected with covid 19. Do you still feel that way today . I do. It will take some time, but this virus is spreading across the world at enormous speed, and the only thing really between us and bona fide infection of the entire world really is a vaccine, and thats several months away. The Knowledge Base<\/a> upon which we develop our efforts to combat covid 19, is it still quite narrow or has it expanded massively over the past three months . Theres been a dramatic amount of collaboration worldwide, the speed at which youve seen publications and press releases\ron the development of drugs, diagnostics, insights into the way in which this virus causes the disease is absolutely unprecedented. And yet the implication of what you first said to me is that none of that expanded knowledge and more Effective Response<\/a> is going to make much difference. And if we figure that the worlds population is, what, close to 7 billion, and only looking at the latest figures, 7. 5 million have been infected thus far, the implication of everything youre saying is that were still at the beginning of the beginning of this. Yes, but it could be, believe it or not, much worse. So diagnostics have been extraordinarily helpful in allowing us to contain the outbreak, the use of face masks and other kinds of Personal Protective Equipment<\/a> has moved dramatically in terms of helping us control the spread of Infectious Disease<\/a>s, and the rate at which were beginning to look at drugs and vaccines is also unprecedented. I know youve made great efforts to develop international collaborations, in particular with china. So how much does it matter that we fully understand the origins of this novel covid 19 virus . There are several reasons that this is important. Some people think that this is really an intellectual curiosity and i disagree. First, if we understand where this virus came from and how it transitioned into humans, there may have been intermediate animals, we will be able to survey for those threats to reduce the risk that not only this virus, but similar viruses might emerge in the future. In addition, if you believe, as i do, and most of my colleagues believe, that this virus\roriginated in nature, if we can identify the origin of this virus, then it could put an end to the finger pointing that i think is very disruptive to global science and addressing the challenge of covid i9. So it doesnt help when the chinese say that the United States<\/a> is responsible or the United States<\/a> says that china is responsible. This is a virus that arose in nature and threatens us all, irrespective of nationality. Professor lipkin, listen to these words from Vice President<\/a> mike pence. He said, china covered up how dangerous the disease is, it didnt report sustained human to human transition for a month, it censored those who tried to warn in the world and it destroyed samples. Thats quite a charge sheet. That is quite a charge sheet, and i have some insights into this because of my work with china. I first heard about it in mid to late december, and i was aware that it was a coronavirus at the end of december, and this information was transmitted by my colleagues in australia, in shanghai, i communicated this information myself to the National Institutes<\/a> of health. I dont think that the chinese knew as early as early december how the virus was being transmitted. Its very easy to look back on a monday morning and ask what might have been played differently on saturday or sunday, because you have the advantage of hindsight. Were there things that could have been done differently . Absolutely. There is no question about that. And i think that it would have been helpful if the virus, for example, the samples had been released at an earlier time points, and that people had been invited in to help with understanding\rthe origins of the virus. Professor lipkin, how can you be so sure, as youve expressed it to me, that this was a virus that crossed over from the animal population . There are significant numbers of people in the United States<\/a>, some of them close to the Trump Administration<\/a>, who still insist there is evidence that it came from a chinese laboratory, perhaps inadvertently released into the human population. Well, im happy to look at whatever date anyone has that they think supports this point of view, but ive not seen it. The data that ive seen, which weve reported a few months ago, reviewed the sequences of the virus that had been identified in china compared with sequences that had been recovered in bats in china, as well as in penguins and others, and we concluded that this was a virus that originated in nature. Now, can one every say incontrovertibly that this virus, which was found in bats or some intermediate host, could not have been inadvertently and i emphasise that inadvertently released in some fashion by some human. I cant rule that out. But what i can say is that theres zero evidence that that occurred and theres certainly no evidence to suggest that this virus was deliberately created to cause harm. It just doesnt. It just doesnt have any signatures that we typically see to illustrate that sort of a link. The other thing yeah, let me just finish with this, because this is critical. I mean, i think this is not a constructive line of enquiry anyway, because its here, it is all over the world at this point. We have seen many examples where there have been viruses that emerged in the wild that move into the human population. Are we going to blame any country in africa for the emergence of hiv . Are we going to blame uganda for the appearance of zika . It doesnt make any sense. Professor lipton, as you say, its here and we have to deal with it, and i tell you what strikes me, and ijust wonder whether it has struck you so forcefully as well in recent months there are so many uncanny echoes and resonances from the movie contagion, that you were the science advisor on alongside the writer, scott burns, and the director, steven soderbergh, made i believe 2011, so were talking almost a decade ago, and ivejust rewatched it, as many people have on their streaming services, and it is eerie the degree to which in so many different ways as that story unfolds, it mirrors what is happening in real life. Do you take any pleasure in that . Laughs i dont take any pleasure in it. I take. It is ironic. The reason we made this film was in fact to prevent Something Like<\/a> this happening. So in fact although the film was released in 2011, we began talking about this back in 2008 and 2009, and it took us a long time to try to get all of the details\ras accurate as we possibly could make them within the constraints of the fact that we wanted people to actually pay to go and see the movie, otherwise it was not going to be of any practical value. Now, one criticism really had of the movie, and this is ironic, in retrospect, was around the time frame for creating the vaccine, and i remember showing it to the director of niaid, anthony fauci, at one point in new york. He came in from a premiere that i arranged for him. And he said, you know, i like the zoonotic aspects, i like this, i like talking about tra nsmissibility, the r 0s, and the characters we have, but the time frame for the creation of the vaccine is completely unrealistic. And i said, tony, cause hes a good friend of mine, i said, tony, it may be unrealistic now, but it has to become realistic, and in fact you now see that the time frame for creation of a vaccine has moved now from several years to approximately a year. So we were not that far off in terms of what we thought would be needed. Professor lipkin, ijust want us both to watch a short clip from the movie. It involves kate winslet, whos one of the key scientific investigators responding to first news of the virus. Lets just have a look together. For every person who gets sick, how many other people are they likely to infect . So, for seasonal flu, thats usually about one. Smallpox on the other hand. Its over three. Now, before we had a vaccine, polio spread at a rate between four and six. Now, we call that number. The r o. Theres kate winslet playing a scientist who came to a bad end as she tried to wrestle\rwith this outbreak. Im just intrigued by real life mirroring fiction. You, as weve said, went to china in january when we know that the virus was spreading. You came back to new york, you then found quite soon afterwards that you had covid 19. Do you believe that you caught it in china as a result of your Scientific Exchange<\/a> . No, this time so when i went to china in 2003 during sars, i developed a respiratory tract infection shortly after i returned, and there i think i became ill in china. This time, i did not become ill in china because i came back, i was isolated for two weeks, i was fine, and then while i was travelling around new york, primarily doing media, i became infected. So this was and the strain that infected me was one that came from europe. So there were two major waves of virus that came in one from china, which was primarily focused on the west coast, and another one that came from europe. Theres another twist, which, in a sense, is a mirror to fiction. In the movie, there is a sort of radical conspiracy theorist blogger who is convinced that there is a sort of homoeopathic remedy or a treatment for that particular virus in the movie, and he peddles it on his blogs and online and it becomes a huge thing and the American Public<\/a> is desperate to get it. Now, theres no Scientific Evidence<\/a> for this product, for scythia, in the movie. In real life, the president of the United States<\/a> has been peddling the notion that this drug thats used of an antimalarial treatment, hydroxychloroquine, could be effective as a treatment, and it amazes me that as one of the most senior epidemiologist scientists in the United States<\/a>, you chose to use this unproven hydroxychloroquine\ryourself. Why on earth did you do that . Im glad youve given me an opportunity to answer this question. So when i became ill, representatives of the Chinese Government<\/a> offered to send me convalescent plasma. I couldnt actually find a way to accept it so that i could be treated. That was actually my first choice. I realised that i was not in a position to make any sort of decisions, and the point that i consulted with Infectious Disease<\/a> physicians at columbia, they said to me, we want you to take hydroxychloroquine. This is the dosage. I then consulted with a cardiologist because ive had some heart problems in the past, and he told me that i was cleared to use it. I dont think it made any difference whatsoever, but ive felt for a long time that any doctor who treats themself has a fool for a patient. So i just go with the recommendations of my physicians. As i said just a moment ago, i dont think it made one difference\rin terms of my recovery or lack thereof. Lets stick with the theme of president trump. Id rather not well, we need to. For the next few months, perhaps. The complex relationship between science and politics has perhaps been best illustrated by the confusions we have seen in the United States<\/a> over whether to lock down, and then how to run the lockdown, when to ease the lockdown. What are your conclusions from what you have seen about the efficacy of the current relationship, communication between science and politics . Well, lets talk about lockdown first. I think theres no question but that lockdown has had a dramatic impact, and if you look at the various\rcountries that have implemented lockdowns and testing and track tracing, you see a very strong correlation between that sort of early response and containment. The best example i can provide you is what happens in, if you look at scandinavia, when you compare norway and denmark versus sweden. So, lockdown works. I dont understand why it took so long in this country to get lockdown into position, but we had discussions like that in new york state, in new york city, where i reside, and i think there were delays there that made a huge difference, so unfortunately i think that both our democratic and Republican Leaders<\/a> were slow to appreciate the importance of this. My hope, of course, is that having learned from this experience, if we ever have something similar in the future, we will respond more rapidly. Now, i cant account at all for the way in which\rwe have gotten signalling from the white house that has been confusing. Well, i was going to say, it isnt really about the next pandemic, it is about what happens next in this one, isnt it . Because if one looks at the figures, there are 18 american states where the infection rate is currently rising, including some of the most populous states in the south of the United States<\/a>. There are doctors i am going to quote you ashistha, director of the Harvard Global<\/a> Health Institute<\/a> who says that what the easing of lockdown in most of these states now means is that between 800 and 1,000 americans are going to die every single day. We are likely to get another 100,000 deaths by september. It could be catastrophic. Do you agree with that . I dont have a crystal ball but i do think that there will be additional\rmorbidity and mortality as a result of easing these restrictions. So, i am very happy to report that i am not a politician because these guys and women are being pulled in two Different Directions<\/a> by those individuals who feel that the economic pain and poverty and so forth associated with the lockdown is crippling. Now, i dont agree. I think that in fact we need to be cautious, and until such time as we have a vaccine that is effective and prevents disease, and or a drug that can be given orally, our best methods for containment are in fact classical epidemiological lockdown and contact tracing. The most effective thing we have at present right now is the face mask, and this is something that should have been implemented earlier as well. When i left china on february 4, everyone i encountered was wearing a face mask. When i came back to the us, with the exception of thejet bridge, nobody was wearing a face mask. So in terms of adaptation then, long term adaptation, so that we can live with the reality that covid 19 is still going to be among us, and, as you say, until there is a vaccine, there is no way that we can have this sort of complete herd immunity to it, what are the most important mitigation things we can do . Youve mentioned face masks, theres a big debate across europe and the world about whether one metre or two metres is the safe physical distance that people should stay apart from each other. Theres also a debate about whether it is safe or not safe to reopen places of entertainment, including bars, restaurants, that sort of thing. Where do you stand on these practical issues that face societies across the world . Well, the further you are away from another individual, the less likely you are to be exposed to this virus. There is no question about that. The question is what can you do . At columbia university, where weve begun to talk about bringing people back to work and into classes, we are looking at two metres. Thats what were trying to do. As the amount of virus in the Community Begins<\/a> to drop as a result of these kinds of efforts towards containment, i think you will see people beginning to move closer together. There are, however, some things that i am very concerned about and one of them is bars because what happens, first of all, bars tend to be small places anyway so people are forced in close proximity to one another. In addition, as they begin to drink and they lose their sense ofjudgement, they get closer still. So i think restaurants are safer for that reason than bars. In new york state, now, we have restaurants that are beginning to open, but theyre all opening with the concept of tables that are separated\rfrom one another by six feet, and many of these are associated with outdoor dining, because then you have more air exchange. Fortunately, as were coming now to the point where were opening, we are, at least in the northern hemisphere, in a time of year when people can be outside. Now, when we move back into fall, and weve had protests and other sorts of things where people are pushed together, but as we move back into fall, people move indoors, many of us anticipate that there will be a dramatic increase in infection again. Right. Well, that is depressing, but maybe even more depressing is the degree to which right now, the highest rates of rising infection are not in the developed world where at least there is the Public Health<\/a> infrastructure to ensure treatment for people who are affected, but also, there is now the building of a real test and trace infrastructure as well, but now, the rising infections are seen in, for example,\rmany countries across latin america, notjust brazil, but peru and chile and mexico and others and also africa, south africa is badly affected already. Nigeria has some alarming stats, and then you look at the conflict zones in the middle east. Look at yemen, look at syria. Does it seem to you that when we look back at covid 19 in 2020, at the end of the day, the most depressing statistics in terms of death and damage are going to be in the poorest and most vulnerable parts of the world . Its heartbreaking. And the other thing that we should discuss is the fact that in the developed world as well, there is a disproportionate burden thats placed on people who are poor, who are of colour, so any way you look at it, this is an awful outcome, and, again, when you talked about contagion, the whole idea of putting\rthat movie out was to alert people to the possibility that this could occur, and its chilling, we meant it to be so, and as you saw at the very end, we tied it all again into the idea of bats. Not saying that bats should be exterminated because we need them for many purposes, but the fact remains that this is not the last, and i dont even know that its going to be the worst Health Threat<\/a> in our time. I hope we learn from this. To be clear, because we must end in a moment, but to be clear, you are saying that because of the way in which animal transfer to humans works, the potential for pandemics worse than covid 19 is very real, very immediate . It is, and to that point, we have been trying for several years to get off the ground a programme called the global Infectious Disease<\/a> epidemiology network, which is designed to provide Capacity Building<\/a> support in the developing world, so that people can contain threats within their own borders. They can rapidly recognise them, they can respond and reduce the burden of morbidity, mortality and economic destruction. So we need to learn from this. It is notjust a question of responding to covid, we need to think in terms of what we can do to make sure that nothing like this ever happens again. But professor lipkin, you say that and your government has just withdrawn completely from cooperation with the world health organization. I have absolutely no explanation for that. 0r many other things that have happened in my country. But in terms of being realistic about international collaboration, commitment, to not only meet the challenge of covid 19, but ensure that the next pandemic isnt as disastrous, the outlook does not look good. I and others are doing our best. I work in west africa, brazil, mexico, indonesia, saudi arabia, israel,\ri go wherever anybody invites me to go india because this is a global problem, we are one race and we need to support one another. Ian lipkin, we have to end there, but i thank you very much indeed forjoining me on hardtalk. Thank you. Hello there. The phrase sunshine and showers can at times seem quite trivial, cant it . But im sure if you were caught in the thundering downpours on monday, you knew about it. There was a lot of heavy rain in a very short space of time. If we take a look at the rain radar and the thunder and lightning strikes as we went through the afternoon, they were quite frequent across south west scotland, north west england and north wales. It certainly does look as though tuesday we could see more showers ina similararea. Now, plenty of showers across europe as well, all under the influence of low pressure at the moment. So starts off with a fair amount of cloud across the eastern half of the uk, rolling in off the north sea. That will slowly burn away. Well see sunny spells and scattered showers developing. Showers widespread across england and wales, but the heaviest ones across wales and north west england, along with south west scotland. So there could be around an inch of rain falling within an hour, and that potentially is heavy enough to cause some localised flooding. But dodge the showers, keep some sunshine, youll see temperatures peaking at 23 degrees. Thats the mid 70s in terms of fahrenheit. Now, as we move through tuesday evening,\rthe showers are likely to continue for a while and then start to fade away overnight. Once again, well see a little more cloud just filtering across from the north sea. But its going to be a relatively mild, muggy night. Double figures across the country, in some areas around 13 14 degrees. Its a repeat performance almost as we move into wednesday. Lot of cloud along that east coast. That burns away, sunshine comes through and we see more showers around on wednesday. Yet again, some of them could be heavy and thundery. But those temperatures still peeking between 1a and 23 degrees. Now, as we move out of wednesday into thursday, theres likely to be a change with some more heavy, persistent rain from a frontal system moving in from the near continent. Still a level of uncertainty where thats going to be sitting across england and wales, but it will bring some further outbreaks of rain through england and wales on thursday, friday. Just want to end on a glimpse of good news as we head\rtowards the weekend. Things look likely to quiet down. Dry and sunny for all of us and just that little bit warmer. Take care. This is bbc news. Im Sally Bundock<\/a> with the latest headlines for viewers in the uk and around the world. The mayor of atlanta orders immediate changes to Police Practices<\/a> and the white house prepares an executive order on reforms after the Fatal Shooting<\/a> of a black man by a white officer last week. President trump says he will accept the supreme courts decision to ban Workplace Discrimination<\/a> of lg bt people. Countries across europe re open their borders to tourists but greece will maintain tough restrictions on the worst hit coronavirus countries the uk, italy and spain. And the secrets\rof the queen bee","publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"archive.org","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","width":"800","height":"600","url":"https:\/\/vimarsana.com\/images\/vimarsana-bigimage.jpg"}},"autauthor":{"@type":"Organization"},"author":{"sameAs":"archive.org","name":"archive.org"}}],"coverageEndTime":"20240618T12:35:10+00:00"}