Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Best 20170521 : vimarsan

BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Best May 21, 2017

With your hair on fire. Everybody wants to sing kumbaya and wants to hear that melody floating through. Julia we recap another wild week of earnings reports. It is not turbulent. We are very stable. There is an absolutely an opportunity to drive through. Julia that is all ahead on bloomberg best. Julia hello, and welcome. I am julia chatterley. This is bloomberg best. Your weekly review of weekly analysis from Bloomberg Television around the world. The week began with Important News from oil global markets. Saudi arabia and russia signaled output cuts are likely to continue. He is going to head straight to beijing where the Saudi Oil Minister is speaking. Lets take a listen. We have come to the conclusion that the agreement needs to be extended. We will not reach the desired inventory level by the end of june. And therefore, we also came to the conclusion that ending will probably be better at the end of the First Quarter of 2018. With the same volume allocations that were included in the december 10 agreement we entered into in december of last year. Saudi arabia and russia are making strong statements, including a joint statement that they will do whatever it takes to get to their longterm goal of reducing global inventory. Positioning has been cleaned out. That means the market is fresh and healthy. It is able to get a rally. This bullish news came at a good timing for the market, especially on the back of u. S. Data showing u. S. Inventory continued to decline. David reactions in the markets and elsewhere to reports to the Washington Post and wall street journal that President Trump disclosed classified information to the Russian Foreign minister. National security advisor mcmaster publicly denied the reports outside of the white house. The story is false. At no time were intelligence sources or methods discussed. David as i understand the facts, what the Washington Post is reporting that they specifically talked about a specific threat from Islamic State and identified the city which was important for this purpose in terms of inferring the sources and methods. That is right. The mcmaster denial was a nondenial, denial. He was denying something the Washington Post did not actually report. You just saw an hour ago a tweet from the president that says he believes he had the right in terms of sharing information with the russians. He says he did it for humanitarian reasons. And to help russia to combat terrorism. So, the white house is scrambling to straighten out their story now that the president has contradicted his National Security officials. I think we could do with less drama from the white house so we can focus on our agenda, which is deregulations, tax reform, and repealing and replacing obamacare. I think it is another example of the president being a loose cannon. And sometimes, it is not clear when he is going to shoot, or what he is going to shoot, or where he is going to shoot. Emily breaking news happening right now in washington. The New York Times reporting President Trump asked the fbi director to shut down the federal investigation into trumps former National Security advisor, michael flynn. The white house has denied this report. The confluence of events, it couldnt be a more tumultuous time in d. C. And the drumbeat is just going to continue. And of course, the white house is denying it ever happened. So, it does sound like something donald trump, the real estate magnate, might say if one of his employees got a traffic ticket. But he is president. You just cannot do that. The u. S. Dollar has fallen for a sixth day. U. S. Futures are pointing lower after the latest controversy involving President Trump. What is your sense of the magnitude of what is happening . It is amazing to think that any one of these things, the firing of james comey, the emergence of intelligence intelligence information being inappropriately shared this , Bombshell Development yesterday, it would be almost impossible for the white house to get traction and to regroup. We are dealing with the deepening crisis. Even republicans saying that the white house is in a spiral. That they cannot seem to get out of, much of it on their own. It is not about comey or trump. This is about the United States of america. This is about our democracy. We must have an independent prosecutor. We need a Serious Investigation now. Volatility awakened from a period of dormancy. Stock three closing at lows with stocks foreclosing at lows with the dow tumbling 300 points. The 10 year yields are lowest since the brexit vote. Talk about how this is a risk off moment and the biggest decline for u. S. Stocks since september. Off by 1. 8 . A 370 point drop. There has been a change here. Some people have been saying the rally has been holding up nicely. Only because of earnings and because of better numbers on Economic Growth around the globe. And that we didnt need trumps new proposals to take the market higher. I dont think that was the case. I think that people were saying it is ok that a gets pushed up a little bit. It was ok as long as it came in early 2018. With this new scandal, or possible scandal, that pushes everything out further. All of the talk we have heard has been about timing. Now, they are talking about how much you can actually get past. It is a bit of a game changer. Mark volatility surging. Stock markets across the world declining. The white house trying to get a handle on this latest scandal. The u. S. Justice department has appointed former fbi director Robert Mueller to oversee the investigation into russias alleged meddling into the 2016 u. S. Election, as well as possible collusion by Trump Campaign associates. The s p 500 plunging by the most in eight months yesterday. Asian and european markets following the downward trend overnight. Mueller is a very respected figure and enjoys bipartisan support. One of the longest serving fbi directors. So, he is a very reassuring figure. The last eight days in washington with the white house were unsustainable. I have been talking to republicans. You saw a really important mood shift. The fact that you couldnt find any republican lawmakers ready to defend the president after that explosive story about the comey memo hit, and now that there is a special counsel there is some breathing room. He can focus on his actual agenda and try to be the president again. Pres. Trump i respect the move, but the entire thing has been a witch hunt. There is no collusion between certainly myself and my campaign. But i can always speak for myself and the russians zero. Vonnie Steven Mnuchin giving his first testimony to the urban Affairs Committee of the senate. I believe that a goal of 3 gdp or higher Economic Growth is achievable if we make historic reforms to taxes and regulation. Vonnie did you feel we learned anything new about this administration or its plans . Well, i am not sure. The secretary was very general. In most of his remarks. There is a lot of discussion. I think everybody has their own concept of what tax reform would look like. But so far, it has been very difficult to get everybody around a single plan. Especially given the concerns of blowing up the debt deficit. David at the end of a long week, the president is getting out of town, traveling for nine days to five cities in four countries. Is he setting out now, hes saudi arabia, and he goes all around to change and sees back initiative on the foreignpolicy front, something that he can really do . There is no question that they have spent a considerable amount of time planning this trip. I will say that this president s staff has not shown tremendous ability at logistics. This kind of trip requires intense planning and advanced work. Things can go wrong, and they better not if he wants to make his message clear. David as President Trump makes his way to saudi arabia, today is a big election for iran. Voters will decide whether to keep incumbent Hassan Rouhani or take and term, look at this conservative cleric. What does this mean for saudi arabia if they look at this election in iran . In terms of what is at stake, it didnt go well under barack obama. It was a tense relationship and the saudis and donald trump are looking to revive this. They see an opportunity a lot of , gains that could be made. Look, in terms of big deals, 10 possibly big deals with saudi aramco, the state owned oil company. You look at the bigger banks like morgan stanley. They have a slice of the cake of what could be the biggest ipo in the history of the kingdom. Julia still ahead on bloomberg best, more on chinas belton belt and road forum. It was a big deal, but will it lead to big deals . Despite distractions in d. C. , legislators talk to us about tax reform. And investors weigh in on the sudden return of market volatility. Up next, more of the weeks top headlines, a rash of cyberattacks rattling businesses and governments around the world. It brings home how vulnerable the economy is on a global basis. Julia this is bloomberg. Julia this is bloomberg best. Im julia chatterley. Lets continue our global tour of the weeks top business stories in china, where the government hosted a summit to advance its ambitious belt and Road Initiative. More than 60 countries involved in the belt and Road Initiative have issued a joint communique promising to expand trade and investment after the chinese president said the plan is already in full swing. How much progress has beijing made to move this hugely ambitious plan forward . We are getting now is a solidification of some of these parameters and getting some of clarity around some of these parameters and questions that need to be answered. We have this communique that was put out by the belton road members who came here. Belt and road members who came here, they vowed to continue to push forward with globalization, trade, and investment. We also had details around financing proposals, concerns being voiced by the germans that process may not be transparent or fair. The germans are pushing for more clarity on that. The question is around whether the u. S. Is going to participate. They gave their backing to this trade deal. Emily over the weekend, a global cyber attack snowballed to infect 200,000 computers in 150 countries. It hit systems ranging from the u. K. S National Health Service to the Russian Ministry of the interior. What does that tell you about the actual target and intention behind the attack . I think it reinforces again that cybersecurity is a very important issue. It reinforces that it is a weapon that can be used in the wrong hands, in a way that is very bad for the global economy. In the breadth of this, there was nothing novel in this attack. It was leveraging a set of things that had been known for quite sometime, but it was done in such a broad way that it brings home how vulnerable the economy is on a global basis. X close momentum growth momentum in china may be softening. Factory output, and retail sales growth slipping from the previous month. What is the key takeaway here . The numbers are fairly good, but they are decelerating from march. March was a real blowout number as we finished the First Quarter with higherthanexpected gdp growth at 6. 9 . What you are seeing is that march was the peak. We are seeing a deceleration. Retail sales coming in at 10. 7 . Industrial production, 6. 5 . We were expecting 7 . March was 7. 6 . We were not going to get that. That was the fastest since december 2014. So 6. 5 . If you take of march, it is the highest pace of growth for factory output since march of last year. Vonnie a rocky decade for aig. The company is starting to show some signs of stability this year. Just in time as the Company Names a new ceo. He succeeds peter hancock. Who is the new ceo . He is a wellrespected leader. One analyst said he is the white knight coming in. Vonnie they said there may be some ashes on the white knight. People are wondering if aig will bring another reserve charge. He said the reserves look reasonable. People are wondering if that will continue because hes coming in to invest. Unlike carl icahn, who said in 2015 he wanted breakup of the full insured. He said hes not there to break it up. Scarlet ford is cutting its workforce with plans to trim 10 of global workers. The move is part of an effort to boost profit in a lagging stock price. We know auto sales have been disappointing. They appear to have peaked. Is this in response to the slow down in auto sales . Auto sales are turning down after seven years of growth. There is particular pressure on ford and its ceo mark fields. Last week, the ford board of directors scheduled extra time to have fields explain his strategy, because profits were down 42 in the First Quarter. They are going to be down for the year. They wanted to know what fields was going to do to turn things around. And now, it looks like one of the things he will be doing is cutting staff. Guy Lloyds Banking group has returned to full private ownership, almost a decade after it was bailed out by the u. K. Government for 24. 3 billion pounds. The treasury sold the last remaining shares yesterday. Should the government have waited . Are there more great things to come . If you are a pragmatic shareholder and you think things are Getting Better, hold on for a little bit more . There is lots more to do, but i dont think governments should be shareholders of banks. This was a bailout which was required by rbs, northern rock, at the height of the financial crisis. Taxpayers money was used, because it was a major crisis. Taxpayers money should not be used to bail out banks, and taxpayers money has made better uses to it. The government did well in selling their shares. They used a good plan and sold everyday a part of the daily flow, so progressively, they diversified themselves. They got their money back. 20. 3 billion pounds and around 900 Million Pounds more than what was put in the bank. So, they did the right thing. In the u. K. , Prime Minister theresa may has committed her conservative party to a hard brexit. She outlined the partys manifesto today, promising british voters she would deliver a clean break from the European Union, and warned no deal with the e. U. Was better than a bad one. Theresa may we will leave the European Union and take control of our money, our borders, our laws. This is theresa may setting out her grand vision for the future. Not just what is going to win her the election, but the policy she believes in, which are pretty radical in some ways. She is directly trying to appeal to all of these people who voted for brexit who feel left out and left behind by globalization. No Single Market and immigration curbs. Thats one of the big things. She is talking about doubling the levy on how Companies Hire skilled migrants. That is the kind of language that makes big corporations nervous. Matt the real tumbled as the president became embroiled in a new political crisis. Trading and briefly halted yesterday. Sinking the most since 2008. He denies the claims he endorsed the payment of hush money to the former house speaker. In a televised address, declared he would not step down. This is the biggest event we have seen an emerging markets in the last six months, because brazil was the flag bearer of reform. It was the leader of the pack last year when emerging markets came back from the dead. If investors get disenchanted with emerging markets because they thought it was of reform story, that has an impact as far as korea, russia, south africa because of brazil. I think this is coming in at a bad time for emerging markets. Julia welcome back to bloomberg best. I am julia chatterley. Policy conversation in washington this week was largely diverted by controversy but , republicans on capitol hill insist they are moving forward with their economic agenda. This week, bloomberg spoke with key legislators about the several key legislators about the prospects for tax reform. Kevin cirilli sat down with Senate Majority leader mitch mcconnell. Kevin the president is proposing a massive tax cut. Seemingly, there could be some tension on visions. Is there tension on the visions and what is the timeline . Are you confident we could have comprehensive tax reform by the end of the year . Mitch mcconnell it will have to be revenue neutral. We have a 21 trillion debt. Kevin a lot of money. Mitch mcconnell yeah. we had a tremendous amount of debt during the obama years, so we will have to be revenue neutral. I dont want to put a strict timeline on it. Last time tax reform was done it took several years, but we want certainly to try to complete it this congress. We want to make america more competitive. That is what it is about. We did not have one year of 3 growth during all of obama. Kevin one of the most controversial issues of tax reform has been the border adjustment tax. I have spoken to a lot of senators who seem against it. What is the chance of this being involved in all of this . Mitch mcconnell it probably would not pass the senate, but the way we are trying to go forward is the secretary of the treasury, the speaker, and myself are trying to reach an agreement on a proposal we can all agree to start with. It will start in the house. We have not reached that agreement yet, but we will at some point. Border adjustability is a pretty controversial thing in the senate, but we will see what is in the final thing we agreed to. I am not as caught up in revenue neutrality as others are. I would

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